Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Cryptocurrency market update for November 18, 2021



THE MARKET DOUBTS THE ABILITY OF BITCOIN TO GROW FURTHER

Bitcoin dropped by another $1,000 on Wednesday, November 17, thus observing a price drop of $6,000 in two days. Many analysts have already begun to panic, but the latest decline in quotes is now no more than $10,000.

For Bitcoin, this is not much. In a few days, the price can go through the same $10,000, but already up and everyone will talk about $100,000 per coin by the end of the year. I also urge you not to panic. I believe that buying cryptocurrency is now already quite dangerous since we are talking about purchases at the highest prices in the entire history of the existence of a cryptocurrency.

On the other hand, just a couple of years ago, the maximum value was $20,000, and if everyone was guided by the principle of "don't buy at the highs," then Bitcoin would never have crossed this mark. Thus, I propose to pay attention to the wave analysis, which will be discussed below.

In the meantime, I will say that now there are really enough reasons that can push Bitcoin down. However, there are also plenty of reasons to continue the rise. Everything, as usual, will depend on the mood of the cryptocurrency market.


TWITTER REFUSES TO INVEST IN BITCOIN

While the whole world is thinking about which direction Bitcoin will now move, Twitter knows for sure that they are not going to invest in cryptocurrency. This was stated by the financial director of the company Ned Segal.

Segal noted that a large company like Twitter does not want to risk its available funds and prefers investing in more relaxed and safer tools. Such as securities. "In order to invest in bitcoin, we would have to change our entire investment policy," Segal said.

At the same time, the company is considering the possibilities of using Bitcoin in its activities, and its head Jack Dorsey has never spoken out against Bitcoin and, on the contrary, is very optimistic about it. His second company, Square, owns more than 8,000 Bitcoin coins, which are now valued at about $500 million.

Recall that some companies really began to actively invest in Bitcoin a year and a half ago. The most famous of them are Tesla, Microstrategy, and the Ark Invest fund. Meanwhile, there is not a single report that Apple or Microsoft bought cryptocurrencies.



The current upward trend is still beyond doubt. The wave pattern was refined after the instrument made a successful attempt to break the high of the assumed wave 3. Now the whole picture looks like an impulsive five-wave upward trend, which began its construction on July 20.

However, the exit of quotes last week from the highs reached may also mean the completion of the expected wave 5, which in this case turned out to be shortened. It is also possible that we are now observing the construction of the proposed wave c in 4, but still, everything looks more like the completion of an upward five-wave structure.

Thus, in the coming weeks, Bitcoin risks starting to build a new downward trend section, which could drag on for several months. Then it will definitely not reach the notorious $100,000 target this year. Also, the cryptocurrency risks dropping to at least $44,000. And if the news background is bad in the coming weeks, then much lower.





Chin Zhao
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Twitter CFO Ned Segal: We have no desire to invest in Bitcoin now, as it is irrelevant



Ned Segal, who is Twitter's CFO, stated that the company has no desire to invest money in bitcoin at the moment, as it is irrelevant.

The other day, Segal said that Twitter's investment policy would be forced to changes in order to contain more volatile assets, such as bitcoin.

Jack Dorsey prefers to have less volatile assets on his accounts, in particular securities. Dorsey is a bitcoin bull and an avid crypto enthusiast.

He has repeatedly said that he and his company Square are going to work in the direction of bitcoin and are going to implement it on Twitter. At one time, Dorsey even wanted to leave the post of head of Twitter for the sake of working exclusively in the direction of bitcoin and its network.

Twitter allows hundreds of millions of its users to link accounts with various payment channels that charge them cashback in bitcoin.

Also recently, Twitter has created a special team that has huge knowledge in decentralized applications, bitcoin and its blockchain.

This year, Dorsey's company prevails acquired bitcoins worth more than $200 million, and the billionaire also stated that he has a desire to build drilling rigs for bitcoin mining in the United States of America.

Dorsey allocates exclusively only bitcoin and does not see any other cryptocurrencies besides digital gold.

This statement by Segal scared many enthusiasts and investors, as it came out just after US President Joe Biden signed a bipartisan bill worth more than a trillion dollars, which includes controversial reporting requirements for crypto brokers.

At the moment, bitcoin has fallen below the $60,000 milestone, and the least that digital gold needs is chaos and alarm bells from the outside.





Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ethereum deep in the sellers' territory

Ethereum registered a strong sell-off in the short term. The pressure remains high, so the crypto may lose more ground anytime. Bitcoin's drop forced the altcoins to drop as well. In the short term, ETH/USD stands below strong upside obstacles, that's why more declines are in cards.

In the last 7 days, Ethereum is down by 12.54% and only by 2.11% in the last 24 hours. The cryptocurrency is into a corrective phase. In the short term, it could only test and retest the near-term resistance levels before dropping deeper.


ETH/USD DOOR OPEN FOR MORE DECLINES



Ethereum has found support on the Descending Pitchfork's lower median line (LML) and now it challenges the weekly S2 (4,236.10) and the Ascending Pitchfork's upper median line (uml). As long as it stays below these upside obstacles and under the Descending Pitchfork's median line (ML), ETH/USD could resume its corrective phase.

In the short term, the bias is bearish, so personally, I'll wait for a strong bullish pattern before considering going long again.


ETHEREUM PREDICTION

After dropping below the Ascending Pitchfork's upper median line (uml), ETH/USD signaled strong bearish pressure and potential further drop. Now it has come back to retest the upside obstacles.

A larger downside movement could be activated by a new lower low, by a bearish closure below 4,065.00. I believe that only coming back and stabilizing above the upper median line (uml) and above the median line (ML) could invalidate a deeper drop and could signal an upside continuation.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

India and Israel to Regulate Cryptocurrencies Amid Market Recovery: When Will BTC and ETH Resume Bullish Rally?

The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a massive collapse after a long period of upward movement. The main reason for such a powerful collapse was the negative reaction of investors to the adoption of a law tightening government regulation of the digital asset market in the United States.

Against the background of this event, BTC and ETH quotes sank by 9%, and coins risk aggravating the fall to deeper areas. Taking into account such a reaction of the market to the control of the cryptocurrency, there is a possibility of aggravating the current correction.

One of the reasons for the continued downward trend will be bills on government regulation of the cryptocurrency market in India. The local government has come to the conclusion that digital coins can be traded and stored, similar to stocks, gold, and other precious metals.

At the same time, the country's authorities are convinced that it is impossible to use cryptocurrencies as a means of payment, and therefore the regulatory act will have provisions prohibiting the use of cryptocurrencies as payment for services and goods.

Despite the obvious positive, the bill rather toughens the regulation of the cryptocurrency market, as it involves introducing mechanisms for taxing crypto platforms, by analogy with the United States. The market reaction to such news was negative and significantly exacerbated the correction.

With this in mind, a similar reaction can be expected, as India is an important hub for the crypto industry in Asia. In addition, the wording of the law implies a ban on direct advertising of cryptocurrency platforms and financial offers. The decision on the approval of the legal act will be made within three weeks.

A similar policy is being implemented in Israel, where, as part of the fight against money laundering, an obligation has been introduced to provide detailed reporting and identification of transnational transactions in cryptocurrency.

Despite the absence of direct prohibitive norms, Israel's position should also be seen as tightening control over the activities of cryptocurrency platforms. And despite the negative reaction of the market, government regulation of the industry has a positive effect on the security of transactions, as well as contributes to the growth and development of individual coins and projects.

It is very important that such a decision was made in the United States, where the regulatory authority is confident that legislation cannot provide reliable protection for users within the framework of cryptocurrency investments.

Thanks to the gradual implementation of legislative acts, the SEC may change its position regarding important crypto projects, such as spot ETFs, which will subsequently have a great impact on the development of the entire crypto market.

Meanwhile, market leaders are trying to gain a foothold in local support zones so as not to aggravate the downward movement to monthly lows. Bitcoin managed to work out the fall below $60k and recovered above an important area. Moreover, the price made a second retest of $58.7k for two, and the subsequent move to this mark could end with its bearish break.

As of 13:00 UTC, there is every reason to believe that the market has found a bottom at $58.7k and the asset will resume its upward movement soon.

This is as indicated by the technical indicators of the cryptocurrency: the stochastic oscillator reached an important psychological mark of 40, after which it turned around and moves in a flat, which could be a direct display of today's rebound. The relative strength index shows a similar trend, which indicates an increase in the number of coin purchases. At the same time, MACD continues to decline, demonstrating the weakness of the long-term upward momentum.

It is also worth noting that, despite the recovery above the $60.2k support area, its breakdown is highly probable, since the buyers' positions are not able to ensure the redemption of the offered volumes. This can be seen in the daily candlestick, a body that is unable to absorb the body of the bearish candlestick that facilitated the $60k breakout.

With this in mind, it's worth assuming that BTC will continue to fall and rebound within the $53.7k-$57.8k range.



The situation around Ethereum is quite logical, and the coin would have gone into correction without the help of fundamental negative factors. The altcoin made a powerful upward spurt, which lasted from September 30. All this time, the coin has not been adjusted and has updated the historical maximum several times. With this in mind, it is likely that the coin will continue to adjust, although the prerequisites for the recovery and activation of buyers are already visible.

ETH found a local support zone at $4.2k, where it rebounded and began to recover. Technical indicators of cryptocurrencies have also started a sideways movement, which indicates the buying off of sellers' volumes and the start of a stabilization period.

Despite the local positive, ETH remains locked inside a narrow range and cannot break through the $4.3k mark. If this does not happen, then the coin will start moving to the lower limit of the range, at the breakdown of which a retest of $4k will occur.

Taking into account the long period of upward movement, quotes may fall to $3.7k, which will be an ideal entry point into the coin before a new rally to $5k. However, apparently, the coin will find the bottom at $4k and begin the recovery process, which will end with an impulse jump to the growth zone.








Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Wave analysis of BTC/USD for November 17, 2021

Analyzing the situation of BTC/USD using the Elliott theory.

BTCUSD, H1:



Most likely, the large impulse wave (A) has already been fully completed. This wave is the beginning of a large bullish simple zigzag (A)-(B)-(C).

Currently, we see a decline in a new downward impulse of a smaller wave level, more precisely in its initial part. Perhaps, two small subwaves 1 and 2 are completed. Now the development of the initial part of the third wave is taking place. Most likely, the construction of a small impulse [1] has come to an end, so in the near future, an increase is expected in correction [2] towards the level of 64,360.55.

Thus, in the current situation, you can make money on a short-term upward movement. That is, it is worth opening buy deals in order to take profit at the end of the correction [2]. After completion of correction [2], a more powerful impulse downward movement is expected within the subwave [3].

Trading recommendations: buy from the current level, take profit 64,360.55.





Roman Onegin
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin is doing well so far, but it's too early to be complacent; updating local landmarks

Bitcoin closed above $60,000 per coin on Tuesday. The hypothetical upward trend has been corrected by yesterday's lows and has not lost its relevance yet.

As of this writing, the chart shows long lower shadows of false breakouts, and BTCUSD is still above the $60,000 psychological level, but not by much.

Against this background, it is at least premature to exhale after yesterday's fall and claim that the correction has ended. The scenario of a deeper fall is not excluded. The technical benchmarks were updated only in the form of the boundaries and the slope of the upward trend. A strong support zone and a key watershed in the area of 60,000 - 61,000 remains relevant.

Accordingly, possible scenarios for the development of events are not canceled. If the upward channel support holds, we may soon see the price retrace to the $70,000 area. And in case of a breakdown and consolidation below the 60,000 - 61,000 zone, the main cryptocurrency can be adjusted up to 55,000, or even 52,000 dollars for one bitcoin.


THE GLOBAL OUTLOOK IS OPTIMISTIC
The situation we are now discussing is the likelihood of a deeper local correction. But it doesn't change the long-term perspective. More and more analysts are giving six-digit targets for Bitcoin, focusing on the 2017 bull cycle.

However, IntoTheBlock founder Daniel Ferraro notes that institutional activity in bitcoin is growing rapidly, making it less speculative.

He notes that the average size of a Bitcoin transaction over the past seven days was 983,000. It has increased by about eight times compared to what it was during the peak of 2017 and five times since the beginning of the year. At the time of the April high, the average transaction size showed that Bitcoin was more speculative and retail-oriented.

On the other hand, network data provider Santiment noted that traders' interest in buying flops is growing. "Typically, it takes a little crowd fear for prices to bounce completely," they added.

So, perhaps, the failure will be redeemed this time too.


EVEN PRIVATE INVESTORS ARE RUNNING AWAY FROM INFLATION

In recent years, there have been widespread fears about inflation. In the context of the growing excitement, Bitcoin is increasingly becoming a defense against inflation for completely different categories of people.

Recently, Canadian psychologist Jordan Peterson spoke about the preference for bitcoin as insurance against inflation. He tweeted that he "bought more bitcoin" to counter the impact of inflation.

Peterson first became convinced of the relevance of BTC about three months ago when he interviewed prominent Bitcoin supporters, including John Valdis, Richard James, Gigi Der, and Robert Breedlove.

With growing worries about inflation, which reduces the purchasing power of money through higher prices for goods and services, more private investors are likely to invest in bitcoin. It has already proven its ability to add value over time rather than lose it.

Bitcoin is considered the most promising inflation hedge due to its limited supply. According to the Case Bitcoin website, the projected inflation rate for BTC for next year is 1.78%. In the US, inflation will rise even more by the end of the year, according to Kiplinger, a leading economic forecaster.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin could bounce towards $62,500 soon.


Bitcoin broke below key horizontal support yesterday and is forming lower lows. Price could soon make a bounce towards $62,500 in order to form a lower high. Traders need to keep this pattern in mind as it is very popular.



Red lines - bearish channel

Green lines - expected price path

Bitcoin has started forming a bearish channel. Price is now at the lower channel property which is support. The RSI is oversold and turning higher. This increases the chances of a bounce towards the upper channel boundary. Resistance is at the upper channel boundary. Bulls need to break above it, while a rejection would be an added bearish signal.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for November 17,.2021 - Rejection of the 50 day moving average

Technical Analysis:




BTC has been tradind flat today at the price of $60,500. I see potential for the upside continuation in the next period.


Trading recommendation:
Due to test and reject of 50 day average, I see potential for the upside rotation towards $62,700.

My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities with the upside objective at the price of $62,700.

Key support level is set at the price of $57,800





Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for November 17, 2021


Crypto Industry Outlook:
China is pushing its own state-owned enterprises to stop mining cryptocurrencies, and the government is considering severe penalties for companies that continue to operate, including higher energy spending.

According to reports, Meng Wei, a spokesman for the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said in a press conference that as China's chief economic planner, the NDRC intends to regulate industrial-scale Bitcoin mining and any involvement of state-owned enterprises in the activity. The NDRC, which is responsible for shaping mining policy, reportedly recently held a special session on the subject. It has also increased pressure on provinces and municipalities to investigate and shut down state-owned mining.

The Chinese government took a tough stance on Bitcoin miners in 2021, blaming them for everything from energy waste to fatal accidents in coal mining as the country strives to meet its carbon neutrality goals.

According to sources, the escalation of crackdown on miners in September was due to concerns over the country's energy supply for the winter season, one of the reasons why authorities reportedly attacked those who tried to impersonate data scientists and data warehouses to continue mining digital assets.

Recent pressure from the Chinese government on cryptocurrencies has forced the burgeoning cryptocurrency industry, including Bitcoin mines and exchanges, to relocate to countries with friendlier regulations.


Technical Market Outlook
The BTC/USD pair might had terminated the ABC corrective cycle at the level of $58,325 and is trying to bounce towards the technical resistance seen at the level of $62,188. The next big target for BTC is seen at $70,000, but the first target for the wave 5 is located at $70,508. Nevertheless, the wave 5 might had been terminated at the level of $68,987 already and now the market is developing the corrective cycle. The momentum is weak and negative, which supports the short-term bearish outlook for BTC. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $57,740.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $74,186
WR2 - $71,563
WR1 - $67,476

Weekly Pivot - $68,414
WS1 - $60,726
WS2 - $58,026
WS3 - $54,090


Trading Outlook:
According to the long-term charts the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $52,943 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $52,000).







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for November 17, 2021


Crypto Industry Outlook:
After months of analysis by the US Senate and the US House of Representatives, the Infrastructure Act - which has been criticized by many cryptocurrency supporters - is now officially the law of the country.

At a ceremony outside the White House, President Joe Biden signed the infrastructure bill in front of an audience of journalists, lawmakers and trade unionists. While the two-party legislation aims to provide funding for roads, bridges, internet access, solar panels, electric vehicle charging stations and other large infrastructure projects, lawmakers included the language applicable to cryptocurrencies before it was passed in both houses of Congress.

The enacted law will implement stricter rules for cryptocurrency companies and expand reporting requirements for brokers. The Act requires that transactions involving digital assets in excess of $ 10,000 be reported to the IRS. A group of senators originally proposed an amendment to the law that would clarify the cryptocurrency tax reporting requirements, but the proposal was not approved.


Technical Market Outlook
The ETH/USD pair has bounced from the level of $4,059 which is just below the 161% Fibonacci projection for the wave 3/C seen at $4,145. The next target for bears is seen at the level of $3,888 (previous wave 4 low). The weak and negative momentum still support the short-term bearish outlook for ETH. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $4,322. Please notice, the five wave impulsive increase might had been terminated at the level of $4,870 already and now might be the time for a deeper correction.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $5,138
WR2 - $5,019
WR1 - $4,756

Weekly Pivot - $4,615
WS1 - $4,352
WS2 - $4,211
WS3 - $3,960


Trading Outlook:
The next long-term target for ETH is seen at the level of $5,000. Nevertheless, in order to continue the long-term up trend, the price can not close below the technical support at the level of $2,906. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key long-term technical support for bulls. The level of $3,677 is the key mid-term technical support for bulls.







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021