Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin: attention at resistance!


Bitcoin rallied after dropping as much as the 58,100.01 level. The crypto has found support around this level and now it has returned higher. It's traded at 61,419 level at the time of writing and is fighting hard to take out strong resistance levels.

BTC/USD is into a resistance area. It remains to see how the rate will react. A valid breakout could confirm further growth, while a rejection could signal a new leg down. It has registered a 6.45% growth from 58,100.01 yesterday's low to 61,848.54 today's high.

Despite today's growth, the BTC/USD price is still down by 3.69% in the last 7 days. Now, being in a resistance area, well have to wait for a fresh opportunity before taking action again.


BTC/USD DOWN CHANNEL!


As you can see, the price of Bitcoin failed to stabilize under the 58,933 static support and now it has reached the 61,781.83 resistance and the downtrend line. Failing to reach the down channel's support signaled that the rate could come back higher.

Technically, we also have a confluence area at the intersection between 61,781.83 and the downtrend line. Making a valid breakout through this confluence area, above these obstacles, could signal further growth and could confirm the channel as a continuation pattern.


BITCOIN PREDICTION!
A valid breakout through the confluence area and above the weekly pivot of 62,310.02 could signal that the downside movement, the corrective phase is over. Registering a valid upside breakout from this pattern could activate an upside continuation.

On the other hand, registering only false breakouts, a bearish pattern in this resistance area could announce a new leg down.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin and Ethereum: Antifragility of the crypto industry boggles the mind


The whole world does nothing but talk about cryptocurrencies, and this is not only a new wave of FOMO but also a new stage in the formation of the crypto industry.

Antifragility in all its colors: the crypto market is constantly being restricted, but it continues to grow, gaining widespread popularity of users, forcing regulators to work shoulder to shoulder with it.

The recently approved Bitcoin ETF, as well as the change in SEC policy, are proofs. In fact, regulators are trying not only to take full control of the new area of finance but also to use it to their advantage.

Recently, the chairman of the United States Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), Jelena McWilliams, said during the Money 20/20 conference that American regulators are focused on creating clear guidelines for regulating banks' interaction with the crypto industry.

It should be understood that regulation is not so bad. The emergence of a regulatory framework is better than a widespread ban, which will ultimately harm the new industry.

In my analytical reviews, I have repeatedly written about the intentions of payment systems to adapt their technical processes to cryptocurrency. So, the payment giant Mastercard announced that it will soon announce support for cryptocurrencies in its network. This will give banks and merchants the opportunity to integrate cryptocurrencies into their products. We are talking about bitcoin wallets, credit and debit cards for accruals in cryptocurrencies, as well as loyalty programs, in which points can be converted into digital assets.

In fact, we are on the verge of mass adoption of cryptocurrencies in everyday life.

Against such a positive background, Tesla, in a report to the US Securities and Exchange Commission, hinted that it may soon resume the practice of accepting cryptocurrency as a means of payment for its products. Let me remind you that last time it became leverage for buyers, which led to the ubiquitous cryptocurrency market.



What is happening on Bitcoin and Ethereum trading charts?

Last week, Bitcoin managed to update its all-time high, reaching the price level of $67,000. This is an absolute record since the existence of the first cryptocurrency. The excitement is so great for cryptocurrencies that the app of the leading crypto-exchange COINBASE has climbed to number one in the Top Charts of the App Store.



This signals that we are on the wave of FOMO* (loss of profit syndrome*), which is good for cryptocurrencies' growth, but at the same time, it can portend big corrections in the market.

At the moment, we already have signs of a correction after the update of the all-time high, but the bullish excitement persists in the market. At this stage, long positions are still considered if the price is held above $64,000. This will result in updating the $67,000 high.

As for Ethereum, a local breakout of the historical maximum of May 12 was noticed, but the quote managed to overcome it by only a few dollars. After that, a rollback occurred with the formation of a flat in the 3,888/4,375 range. In fact, there is no correction, and market participants are still aiming at updating the highs. In this situation, the most appropriate strategy is considered to be a breakout of one or another border of the established range. In the case of considering the upper border, we are talking about the prolongation of the upward trend, where there is a high chance of touching the next psychological level of $5,000.



The index of emotions (aka fear and greed) of the crypto market is at the level of 66 points, which is slightly below the FOMO level. This is due to the corrective move in Bitcoin.







Gven Podolsky
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

El Salvador buys another 420 bitcoins, Stablecoins poses threat to the American economy


While the Bitcoin and Ether exchange rate went on a slight correction, and the expectations of speculative traders for updating historical highs have decreased, the authorities of El Salvador said that they continued to acquire the first world cryptocurrency and do not intend to stop there. In addition, the speech of the director of the U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Rohit Chopra, on the topic of the risks that stablecoin carries draw attention. Let's deal with it all.



El Salvador adds 420 new BTC

According to recent reports, El Salvador has bought another 420 bitcoins, taking advantage of the recent price drop. The President of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, wrote about this on Twitter. At the moment, the authorities own 1,100 coins in total. On September 6, Bukele announced the first purchases of bitcoin and said that it is equated to the national currency. Since September 7, bitcoin has become legal tender along with the dollar.

However, not everyone considers Bukele's act to be correct, and there are quite a few skeptics who are sure that this kind of "trick" can cost El Salvador dearly. More specifically, $ 1.3 billion, which they could lose due to different views with the International Monetary Fund. However, according to the President of the Central Bank of El Salvador, the first-of-its-kind implementation of Bitcoin in El Salvador is not an obstacle for the government to reach the above loan agreement. According to the President of the Central Bank Douglas Rodriguez, at present, the cryptocurrency has almost lost its reputation as a speculative asset and will very soon prove its use as a legal and alternative payment system. He also expects that due to the high volatility of Bitcoin, the country's economy could add about 9.0% this year. "We don't see any risks. The only risk is the risk of bitcoin growth, which is associated with making a profit," said Rodriguez during a virtual meeting in San Salvador.

As a reminder, news broke this week that El Salvador's digital Bitcoin wallet Chivo has removed the pricing feature that allowed users to quickly profit from trades. This decision was made in order to minimize speculation with the world's largest cryptocurrency.



Stablecoins are a threat to the economy

Stablecoins pose risks to the financial system as more technology and payment companies use or plan to use digital currencies that are not regulated by anyone, according to Chopra. In his speech for the first time to Congress since taking over the CFPB, he said the bureau will analyze and collect data on how companies like Facebook Inc. plan to use the tokens.

This is part of a larger program aimed at researching how tech giants collect and use consumer data. "Stablecoins are right now primarily used for speculative purposes," Chopra said during a House Financial Services Committee hearing. "But, if cryptocurrencies are to be embedded in large social networks or tech companies, it's even scary to imagine what it can scale into quickly."

Chopra's speech consisted of criticism of Facebook Inc, which recently reiterated its desire to issue its own token, which was met with harsh backlash from regulators. The authorities are alarmed by the rapid growth of stablecoins, a market that is already $131 billion and which is critical for the crypto industry. One of the things that officials fear the most is the sudden, unregulated surge in public adoption of tokens that big tech companies like Facebook Inc. Note that Facebook's latest attempt to create its own Diem token failed under pressure from the regulator.

Mastercard recently decided to give banks access to cryptographic credit and debit cards. Mastercard Inc. signed a deal with crypto firm Bakkt, which will make it easier for crypto wallet owners to spend their funds.

Chopra also said that the CFPB is one of several agencies that are concerned about systemic risks. A group of officials that are part of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets is expected to release a report this week outlining their recommendations for token regulation.



As for the technical picture of Bitcoin

Wednesday's head-and-shoulders pattern is now being tested for strength and a breakdown of support at $59,400 with subsequent consolidation below may lead to a larger downward correction of the trading instrument to the $54,444 area, and then to a low of $50,900. At the moment, the 200-day moving average is in the 45,000 area. It is possible to speak of a return of interest in Bitcoin after it has gone beyond $59,400, as well as after consolidating above the resistance of $62,800, which will open a direct road to the historical maximum in the $66,500 area.



As for the technical picture of the Ether

The downward movement from historical highs, which were just a few steps short of updating, does not yet indicate the full-scale development of the bear market. This is nothing more than a technical correction. Even if we fall into the area of $3,600 and update $3,405, such a development of the situation will not yet lead to a reversal of the bull market on the Ether. The main task of buyers is to maintain control above $3,950. In this case, a return of $4,367 is provided in the near future.





Jakub Novak
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for October 28,.2021 - Buyers in control

Technical Analysis:



BTC has been trading upside today and I see further upside continuation towards the Pitchfork Middle lane...


Trading recommendation:
Due to strong upside momentum today, I see potential for the further upside continuation.

Watch for buying opportunities on the pullbacks with the downside target at the price of $62,200.

Stochastic oscillator is showing overbought reading but with no evidence for the reversal.

Intraday support is set at the price of $60,370





Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Speculators push Bitcoin below $60,000




Bitcoin traded below $ 60,000 on Wednesday as the euphoria over the first US crypto ETF dissipated and traders began taking profits after hitting record prices.



It fell 6.4% to $ 58,132, the lowest price in nearly two weeks. It peaked at $ 66,976 last October 20.

Ether also posted a 6% decline on Thursday.

"I'm not surprised Bitcoin hit a wall at $67,000, having passed the April high, given the speed of the move from $30,000 in July," said Antoni Trenchev, managing partner and co-founder of Nexo. "Bitcoin needs to cool off before it embarks on its next leg up," he added.

Smaller altcoins were also hit, with Cardano losing 9% over the past 24 hours. Polkadot was also down roughly 5%.

Matt Maley, chief market strategist for Miller Tabak, said: "They've always been more volatile, so it's not a big surprise. Those cryptos are held in weaker hands. Most people think that a small number of these alt will survive, so they tend to sell them more quickly than Bitcoin or Ethereum."

Many analysts explained that speculators are now cutting positions after the launch of the first Bitcoin ETF in the United States. The total liquidation of long crypto positions on Wednesday topped $ 700 million, the highest since September 20.

According to Jonathan Cheesman of FTX, the market has been leveraged for several weeks, so it is no surprise that the positioning was skewed.

Stephane Ouellette added that some of the excitement around ETFs has disappeared, and the sell-off has been exacerbated by the fact that there is much more leverage available to crypto retail traders around the world than in other asset classes.

"We already saw a wave of quite severe leverage come into the space which was evidenced by futures contangos, perpetual swap and peer-to-peer lending rates all spiking around the launch of the BTC ETF," Ouellette said. "In the last few weeks, for example, we saw monthly and quarterly BTC futures contangos in the 20-to-30% range. While leverage can in some cases get even more extreme, the activity over the last few days has some tell-tale signs of a typical crypto check-back."

"Bitcoin fell below that level, to $ 58,000. Let's see if it rebounds. Otherwise, watch out for $ 52,000 or $ 53,000 as possible directions," Ouellette added.

Meanwhile, the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (ticker:BITO) accumulated over $ 1 billion just days after its launch last week.

Petr Kozyakov, co-founder and CEO of Mercuryo, said: "The price slump is being fueled by sellers, who appear to be acting simultaneously in taking profits on their investment. The price correction is an organic one and was not triggered by a clear-cut fundamental."





Andrey Shevchenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for October 28, 2021


Crypto Industry News:
The European Central Bank (ECB) has announced the creation of a market advisory group to examine the infrastructural and circular potential of the digital Euro from the perspective of industry leaders.

The group also aims to discover the optimal function of the digital Euro in the vast pan-European currency payment ecosystem.

The group includes many renowned experts from the banking and financial sector, incl. Aleksander Kurtewski, Managing Director of Bankart, Antonio Macias Vecino, Head of Payment Discipline at BBVA, and Axel Schaefer, Payment Regulation and Innovation Officer, Ingka Group (Ikea), among others.

Initial consultation meetings are expected to start in November 2021 and take place monthly. 30 members will work in advisory roles and will submit their findings for consideration in discussions on retail payments under the Euro Retail Payments Board.

In mid-July, the ECB's Governing Council unveiled plans to launch a two-year initial research initiative on the viability of the digital Euro project, assessing parameters such as infrastructure creation, distribution and design, with the intention of "topping up cash, not replacing it".


Technical Market Outlook
The ETH/USD pair continue to move lower after the bears had broken below the short-term trend line support around the level of $4,100 and is trading around $4,000 already. The last local low was made at the level of $3,890 and the corrective cycle might extend towards the next technical support seen at $3,830 soon. The momentum is weak and negative already, so the bears are in control of the market and continue the corrective cycle. Only a sustained breakout back above the level of $4,273 would change the outlook to more bullish.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $5,099
WR2 - $4,706
WR1 - $4,412

Weekly Pivot - $4,017
WS1 - $3,701
WS2 - $3,313
WS3 - $2,969


Trading Outlook:
The next long-term target for ETH is seen at the level of $5,000. Nevertheless, in order to continue the long-term up trend, the price can not close below the technical support at the level of $2,906. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key long-term technical support for bulls. The level of $3,677 is the key mid-term technical support for bulls.








Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for October 28, 2021


Crypto Industry News:
El Salvador bought another 420 BTC. The president of the country, Nayib Bukele, informed about the new investment. He tweeted that his government had taken advantage of the recent decline in bitcoin's price to do so.

"It took a long time to see it, but it was worth it"

- Bukele wrote on Twitter when he reported that we "just bought" bitcoins.

The four hundred and twenty bitcoins the government added to its balance sheet is worth around $ 24.6 million.
The purchase brings the total amount of bitcoins El Salvador owns to 1,120 BTC (that's about $ 87.4 million).
The media calculate that the country's authorities spent on average around USD 53,300 on 1 BTC.

El Salvador first bought bitcoins in September. Back then it was 200 BTC.Then he bought cryptocurrencies in stages, almost every time using price adjustments that took place on the stock exchanges.


Technical Market Outlook
The BTC/USD pair had broken below the technical support seen at the level of $59,561 and is heading towards the next technical support located at $57,770. The 38% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave up is located at $56,934 and there should be some kind of bounce from this level. There is a 100% market geometry level based on Fibonacci extension located at $56,050 that might be a target for bears as well. The momentum is weak and negative as bears are temporary on control of Bitcoin. The larger time frame trend is still up.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $72,680
WR2 - $69,750
WR1 - $64,343

Weekly Pivot - $61,785
WS1 - $57,070
WS2 - $54,248
WS3 - $49,247


Trading Outlook:
According to the long-term charts the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. The next mid-term target is seen at the level of $66,974 (the previous ATH level). This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).








Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
@ 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin plummeted by $ 5,000. Is this just the beginning?



For the last few days, Bitcoin has been actively falling. It was already mentioned earlier that the current technical analysis gives a more or less accurate picture of what is happening in the cryptocurrency market. The most important event was the breakdown of the upward trend line, which has already made one think about the end of the next "bullish" trend. Yesterday, the main digital asset fell below the Ichimoku cloud on the four-hour timeframe. It is worth noting that these two points are very important, but at the same time, they can be vague.

Now, let's take a look at them in more detail. From a technical point of view, a downward trend has now begun, with the $56,500 level as the first target. However, it can be recalled that BTC has grown by $ 25,000 recently, so a drop of even $ 10,000 falls under the concept of "correction". In addition, it is still very difficult to understand what caused such strong growth and updating of historical highs. Fundamentally speaking, such important events simply did not happen for bitcoin to rise by $ 25,000, even though the US Securities and Stock Markets Commission has approved the launch of ETF funds that have made the process of investing in bitcoin even easier and more accessible for institutional investors.

Moreover, there are already some rudiments of bitcoin regulation at the state level, which significantly reduces the risks of various frauds and fraudulent schemes. However, most experts believe that the launch of an ETF will not lead to an increase in investment in Bitcoin. In other words, those investors who wanted to buy the coin did so without an ETF.

Furthermore, Finance Minister Janet Yellen recently started talking about a new tax on unrealized capital. To put it simply, if one bought bitcoin and is going to keep it on the balance sheet for 10 years, and all this time it will become more expensive, then even if it is not sold, it is still necessary to pay income tax on the growth of the asset. This tax has not yet been introduced, but it is likely to be adopted by American lawmakers. What will happen? There will be a drop in demand for bitcoin, as investments in it will become much less attractive. It should be understood that no asset can go up in price forever. There are some limits to its value. But if the Fed is forever printing money and sending it to the economy, then Bitcoin and US stock indexes can also grow eternally. However, the Fed may soon begin to fight inflation by curtailing the QE program. That is, some investors will leave the cryptocurrency market in search of less risky assets amid lower inflation. The cash flow to the cryptocurrency market will weaken, as the flow of money from the Fed into the economy will begin to decrease. All this can lead to Bitcoin's new deep correction, and even to its "bearish" trend, which was already expected a few months ago.

The current growth of this cryptocurrency is most similar to another hype and an attempt to earn as much as possible until the Fed curtailed QE and introduced new taxes on cryptocurrency transactions and unrealized capital.



The trend on the four-hour timeframe shifted to a downward one, as the price consolidated below the Ichimoku cloud. In this case, sales with the target level of $ 56,500 are now relevant. If the bears successfully break through this level, then the quotes of Bitcoin will continue to decline with the target of $ 51,350. In turn, a rebound from the level of $ 56,500 may serve as a basis for new purchases.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin falls below $ 60,000


Bitcoin fell below $ 60,000 on Wednesday as the euphoria over the first US crypto ETF dissipated and traders began taking profits after another record high. It slipped 6.4% to $ 58,132, hitting lows in the past two weeks.

Ether also lost around 6%, while more volatile tokens such as Dash and EOS dropped more than 10%.

It is not unusual for Bitcoin to quickly tumble after another failed attempt to climb above 63,000. It also has to cool down a bit before starting a new round of growth. Hanging in a tight channel will be the best for now.



In any case, latest data show that the total liquidation of long positions on Wednesday exceeded $ 700 million, the highest figure since September 20. It seems that the market has been using borrowed funds for quite a long time, so the positioning was excessive. Many speculative traders could not withstand the pressure and rushed to fix positions opened with leverage, which led to a slight correction in Bitcoin.

Also, the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (ticker: BITO) accumulated over $ 1 billion just days after its launch last week. For crypto fans, this indicates widespread acceptance by investors. As such, despite the recent correction, many are awaiting the reaction of market players. They anticipate whether new players will appear and if they will bet on a further decrease in the short term.

On a different note, QuickNode reportedly raised $ 35 million in a series A funding round spearheaded by Tiger Global. It was also participated by Alexis Ohanian's Seven Seven Six, Soma Capital, Arrington XRP Capital and Crossbeam. "This round is a major milestone that helps us deliver on our vision of growth in Web 3 through better infrastructure, improved tooling and greater accessibility across all blockchains," said QuickNode Vice President Amol Shah.

The company explained that it will use the new funds to expand its product portfolio and support new networks. It also plans to work with a wide range of clients, from NFT platforms like Rarible to traditional financial institutions.



Technical analysis on Bitcoin
The head-and-shoulders pattern that was formed yesterday is currently being tested. If the bears break down $ 59,400, Bitcoin will slump to $ 54,444 and then go to $ 50,900. The 200 MA is 45,000.

But if the bulls manage to push the quote beyond $ 59,400, Bitcoin may soar to $ 62,800 and then go to $ 66,500.



Technical analysis on Ethereum
Ethereum has fallen from record highs, but this does not mean that it will succumb to a bear market. The recent downward movement is nothing more than a technical correction, so even if the price falls to $ 3,600 or hit $ 3,405, the current bull market will not end. What traders need to do is to maintain control above $ 3,950 because that will push the quote to $ 4,367.





Jakub Novak
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading plan for Bitcoin for October 28, 2021



TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:
Bitcoin corrective drop gathers momentum as prices slip below $58,500 on Thursday early hours of trade. The crypto currency is looking poised to drop towards $56,200 levels at least, as discussed earlier. Traders might be inclined to hold short positions and reduce risk to break even now, with potential target toward $56,200 and lower.

Bitcoin might be drifting toward the channel support, which is seen around $50,000 mark highlighted in a rectangle box on the daily chart. Also note that the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the rally between $40,000 and $67,000 is seen passing through $49,000-50,000 mark as well. High probability remains for a bullish bounce if prices manage to drop there.

The overall structure still remains bullish until prices stay above $40,000 initial support. The recent drop from $67,000 can be still defined as corrective before bulls are back in control again. On the flip side, if channel support breaks, it would be considered as bearish for the crypto as prices could drag through $40,000 levels going forward.


TRADING PLAN:
Potential drop toward $56,000 against $67,000.

Good luck!





Oscar Ton
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021