Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin is attempting to reach a historical high



Bitcoin continues to rise on the daily timeframe. An upward trend line continues to indicate the continuation of growth, and so, only purchases should be considered at the moment. At the same time, it was repeatedly mentioned that there are no solid fundamental reasons for the growth of cryptocurrency, and the entire upward movement looks just like another "hype". Despite the fact that hype is also a trend, it is suggested to be ready for a new collapse since the current growth looks too baseless. However, in the case of cryptocurrencies, one should always be prepared for such a decline, because it is absolutely normal for them to decline in price by 5-10% per day.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg chief strategist Mike McGlone said that Bitcoin's price could rise by the end of 2021. He explains his opinion by the fact that too high public debt has formed in the States, as well as the threat of technical default, which can lower confidence in the US currency and the American economy. At the same time, trust in bitcoin is growing and people continue to invest in it. McGlone also believes that bitcoin is preparing to move to a "unique phase" in the fourth quarter of 2021. We would like to add that the main digital asset continues to be used mainly as a tool for quick earnings for many small market participants. Therefore, it can still fall if most players feel that the "bullish" trend is over.

At the same time, the founder of Starwood Capital Group Barry Sternlicht expressed disagreement with the opinion, which was recently voiced by Jamie Dimon, the head of JPMorgan. Sternlicht believes that Bitcoin is much better than gold. Central banks around the world continue to print money, while the issue of bitcoin does not exceed 21 million coins. He also believes that Bitcoin is very convenient to trade from anywhere on Earth. It can be recalled that Dimon called bitcoin "useless", but noted that the clients of his bank are also adults and smart people and have their own point of view on this matter.

Therefore, the opinions of many billionaires and businessmen regarding bitcoin are still different. Some people are waiting for its complete collapse, while others are waiting for the strongest growth. As always, the truth lies somewhere in the middle. Bitcoin has already experienced 2 or 3 collapses in its history. Therefore, it is not immune from the fourth. At the same time, its long-term prospects are really good, as its popularity is growing.

However, we would say that the news about the beginning of the curtailment of the Fed's QE program could halt investors' admiration to Bitcoin, since they now have a lot of printed money from the state. But they will become fewer and fewer until the Fed completely finished the stimulus program in the middle of next year.



The upward trend continues in the daily timeframe after it failed to break through the Ichimoku cloud. This trend line supports the bulls, so it will be possible to talk about a new strong decline in Bitcoin only after breaking this line. So far, the maximum that this cryptocurrency can count on is a correction. The level of $ 56,500 has been broken, so now it is heading for its historical high of $ 64,700.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin makes another breakout attempt

Bitcoin rallied in the second part of the day and now it is located at 56,949.93, far above 53,909 yesterday's low. The bias is still bullish, so further growth is expected. The crypto approaches a dynamic resistance, an upside obstacle, so it remains to see how it will react when it reaches this obstacle.

Bitcoin registered a 5.59% growth from 54,231 today's low to 57,263.69 daily high. In the last 24 hours, BTC/USD is up by 2.30%, the market cap rose by 2.34%, while the volume increased by 2.68%.


BTC/USD STILL BULLISH


Bitcoin failed to reach and retest the Ascending Pitchfork's upper median line (uml) signaling strong buyers. You already know from my analysis that the bias remains bullish as long as it's located above the upper median line (uml) and above 52,956.47.

The warning line (wl1) and the weekly R1 (58,539.82) are seen as strong upside obstacles. A valid breakout through these levels could announce and confirm an upside continuation.


BITCOIN FORECAST
The immediate high of 57,855 stands as resistance. Personally, I believe that a valid breakout above it, a new higher high could validate further growth. Jumping and stabilizing above the R1 (58,539.82) may indicate more gains.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin declines, crypto community discusses ETFs on pins and needles; is the bullish momentum over?

The crypto community is on pins and needles this week for the approval of new cryptocurrency ETFs. Experts point out that this factor has become the dominant catalyst for recent growth. It is logical to assume that if by the end of October the hopes are not justified, a significant correction is possible in the market.

Tuesday's news feed is full of ETF discussions. Jonathan Steinberg, CEO of exchange-traded fund WisdomTree Investments, said that the approval of the Bitcoin ETF by the US Securities and Exchange Commission is imminent and could happen soon. But he does not undertake to predict the timing.

What's more, Steinberg notes that blockchain technology could disrupt the traditional financial sector, as mutual fund ETFs did in their time. And it seems that the SEC is now beginning to realize that the delay in approving the Bitcoin ETF is harming investors rather than protecting them. Steinberg adds that the right rules must be adopted for blockchain technology to flourish.


Bloomberg Experts Predict ETF Approval In October

Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone also says this. He previously suggested that Bitcoin futures ETFs could be approved in the US by the end of October as the SEC is under strong pressure from market demand.

McGlone highlighted late last month that the growing number of ETF filings (there are now over 30) and the fact that money is leaving the US, especially from Cathie Wood's ARK Invest, an ETF in Canada, could motivate the SEC to speed up its decision.

It was also noted yesterday that McGlone's colleague, Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas, recently suggested that the likelihood of regulatory approval of the futures ETF is high. Balchunas had previously predicted that October would be the month the industry would see ETF approval. And now he notes that at least five applications for bitcoin funds have a high chance of getting approval in the near future.


What the SEC says about ETFs

Currently, the SEC has not yet provided any definitive answer but hinted that serious consideration of applications for Bitcoin futures ETFs is not already underway. The actions of the regulator have not yet instilled hopes in the industry for the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs.

The Commission recently notified four applicants who have applied to open such funds, which is postponing the final decision on their applications to November-December. These are the applications of the Kryptoin Bitcoin ETF, WisdomTree Bitcoin Trust, Valkyrie XBTO Bitcoin Futures Fund, and Global X Bitcoin Trust.


ETF driver is a double-edged sword

ETFs continue to dominate market discussions. Market participants expect their approval to attract a lot of institutional investment to the market. The pending ETF approval this month has been cited as one of the factors contributing to the current surge in bitcoin prices.

What happens if expectations are not met? Will prices roll back and how big will it be? The memories of the dispersal of the cryptocurrency by Elon Musk and its collapse on the subsequent critical remarks about bitcoin being unecological are still fresh in my memory.

What if expectations are met and the SEC approves bitcoin futures funds? A local correction is also possible, but the subsequent bullish impulse may be significant.

Meanwhile, the local technical picture on the daily BTCUSD chart looks somehow not very happy. The breakout of the resistance level 55,842.84 seems to be false. And the candlesticks of the previous two days formed something like a bearish engulfing. Although all the features of the model are not very precisely observed.

But you shouldn't be scared yet. Even a correction to the strong mirror support zone 52,000.18 - 52,929.15 will not look scary if after the price confirms it as a support. But the thought of ETF news and expectations is still worth keeping in mind.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading signal for BITCOIN (BTC) for October 13 - 14, 2021: Sell below 56,250 (SMA 21 - 6/8)



BTC fell in the European session through the SMA 21 (56,250). At the moment of writing it was located below the strong resistance of 6/8 of Murray, showing a negative bias. It could continue its bearish movement in the next hours to the 3/8 Murray support located at 53,125. If the bearish force prevails, it may fall to the psychological level of 50,000 (4/8).

Since October 4, BTC has been forming the Ascending Wedge pattern. On October 12, we saw a sharp break below this technical figure which could be a bearish sign in the short term. As long as it remains below 56,250, this perspective could be valid and we can sell with targets at 53,150 and up to 50,000.

BITCOIN needs to stay above 6/8 of Murray and above the SMA 21 to return to the level of 57,000. In such a case, it may go as far as the psychological level of 60,000.

The capitalization in the cryptocurrency market is falling, as reflected by the Eagle indicator. On October 5, a decline in strength and volume began. Maybe, bulls expect the price to reach a key level of support such as 53,000 or 50,000 to place buy orders again and push the price up to 60,000. For this, we expect a technical rebound in these areas.

Our short-term perspective has turned negative. Only if BTC goes below 6/8 of Murray and below the SMA 21, then it will be an opportunity to sell all the way up to the level of 49,163 where the EMA 200 is located.

On the other hand, we expect the confirmation of the breakout of the Rising Wedge pattern to prevail and thus we could see BTC falling to the key support level of 50,000. A breakout and a daily close below this level will be the start of a bearish scenario and could fall to 1/8 of Murray (4,625), the price level last seen on September 30th.


Support and Resistance Levels for October 13 - 14, 2021
Resistance (3) 61,201
Resistance (2) 59,409
Resistance (1) 57,331

Support (1) 53,461
Support (2) 51,669
Support (3) 49,592


A Trading tip for BITCOIN for October 13 - 14, 2021
Sell below 56,250 (SMA 21) with take profit at 53,125 and 49,163 (EMA 200), stop loss above 57,150.





Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin is trading inside bullish channel.

Bitcoin is making a pull back after the recent high at $57,758. Price remains inside the short-term bullish channel and although a move lower towards $53,000 is not out of the question, the most probable scenario is for price to resume its up trend towards $59,000.



Blue lines - bullish channel

Black lines -expected path

Bitcoin is expected to challenge the lower channel boundary between $52,000 and $53,000. Then we expect to see a resumption of the upward move that started back in $39,500 area, targeting $59,000. If this scenario is confirmed, it will be very important to check on the RSI as another bearish divergence will increase the chances of a major reversal. So far we have one bearish divergence but a second one will be a more important warning to bulls. Breaking below $52,000 and out of the bullish channel will also be a bearish signal.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for October 13,.2021 - Firsrt objective reached and potential for another drop towards $52.000

Technical Analysis



BTC has been trading downside as I expected. The price reached first objective at $54,000 but there is potential another downside swing.


Trading recommendation:
My advice is to watch for selling opportunities on the rallies with the next downside targets at $53,600 and $52,000.

Downside targets are set at the price of $53,600 and $52,000

Resistance is set at $56,500





Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical analysis for Bitcoin



During the previous week, there has been a slowdown while testing the important level of 55,000. So, with the beginning of the new week, the bulls tried to break through the attraction of the level and continue the rise. The next pivot point could be the resistance level of 60,000. However, the bullish mood immediately changed into a bearish correction, as a result, Bitcoin returned to the previous consolidation zone in the attraction and influence area of the 55,000 level. In case of strengthening of corrective opportunities, we can expect a decline to the support levels of 53125 - 52873 (daily short-term trend + historical level). The next strong support zone is in the area of 47938 - 48631 (weekly levels + daily Kijun). The level of 50780 (daily Fibo Kijun) can provide intermediate support on this path.



The correction in the higher time frames led to the breakdown of the key levels in the smaller time frames, which are joining forces at 55579-32 (central pivot level + weekly long-term trend) today. The resumption of the decline will lead Bitcoin to support the classic pivot levels 53462 - 51669 - 49592. On the contrary, the return of the bulls to the key levels (55579-32) can return bullish sentiment and advantages. In this case, the intraday pivot points will be the resistances of the classic pivot levels (57332 - 59409 - 61202).


Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) and Kijun-sen levels in the higher time frames, as well as classic Pivot Points and Moving Average (120) on the H1 chart, are used in the technical analysis of this cryptocurrency.





Evangelos Poulakis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading plan for Bitcoin On October 13, 2021



TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:
Bitcoin is pulling back after being just shy of the resistance at $58,500-59,000. The pullback could last for a few trading sessions and drag the price towards the $46,000-47,000 zone before bulls are back in control. The crypto is progressing higher within a trading channel and remains well supported around the $43,000 mark, going forward.

Bitcoin is seen to be trading around $54,500-700 at this point in writing and is expected to continue lower from here. Immediate price resistance is seen at $58,500-59,000, while support comes in around $46,000. A drop to $46,000 will offer yet another opportunity to initiate fresh long positions targeting above $65,000.

Bitcoin overall trend continues to remain bullish until prices stay above the $40,000 mark. Traders might be inclined to buy more around the $45,000-46,000 zone with a potential risk below $40,000, going forward.


TRADING PLAN:
Potential rally towards $65,000 against $40,000.

Good luck!





Oscar Ton
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Institutional investors provided Bitcoin an upward rally, while retailers sell the asset



Such players turned out to be institutional investors who caused the current bullish BTC rally. This was stated by the experts of the analytical company B2C2. Currently, the market has a fragile balance with a weak dominance of buyers, which is natural given the growth of the BTC/ USD pair. On cryptocurrency platforms, the situation is different: for the period from the beginning of September to October, users preferred to sell their stocks of the first coin. This suggests that the dynamics of cryptocurrency exchanges stand out from the general mood of the market. Platforms for retail and simplified use are the only exception in the entire market, where there is a significant preponderance towards asset sales. It would be quite reasonable to note that this could have been facilitated by the September collapses of the cryptocurrency, which did not scare off only seasoned players, but this is not so. According to the data of the same analytical company, in the period from October 3 to October 10, the following ratio of longs /shorts was observed on cryptocurrency platforms - 42% to 57%.



This is direct evidence that retail traders were betting on Bitcoin decline, and the upward trend in the number of unique addresses was dictated solely by manipulative and short-term plans of traders. However, as it was already clear in August, the BTC market is moving towards expanding trend cycles, and so, short-term investors do not get the necessary results and only slow down the growth of bitcoin prices. Despite this, there is a tendency that the number of retailers will fall due to the continued influx of institutions. This will make the asset more predictable and eliminate the likelihood of local panic sales. In addition, the 30% rise in Bitcoin over the past two weeks suggests that the market has enough bullish strength to set new highs even without significant support from retail traders.

Despite all the positivity, Bitcoin underwent a correction yesterday and tested the strength of the support line at $55,500, after which the price recovered above the level of $56,500. However, BTC began to decline again and broke the level of $ 50,000. Over the past day, the asset has fallen by 4% and is trading around $54,700. Bearish signals are visible on the daily chart, which was facilitated by the formation of a red candle with a long lower wick.

At the same time, technical indicators of the cryptocurrency began to decline, despite the fact that the price found a stable support line at $54,500. The MACD indicator is moving sideways, which indicates the loss of the upward momentum of the bullish wave. The stochastic oscillator formed a bearish intersection and dropped below the 70 mark, and the relative strength index continues to decline after the stochastic and has already approached 60. Everything points to a breakdown of $54.5k and further downward movement to the nearest support zone around the $53,700 mark.



This line will most likely be the last one, as the first steps towards stabilization of the situation are visible on the four-hour chart. Stochastic and RSI index managed to turn around and are moving sideways, which indicates the loss of strength in the downward wave. Despite this, MACD continues to decline to the zero level, so we should expect a period of stabilization and consolidation in the near future, gravitating towards the lower border of the support area.







Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

JPMorgan offers multiple ways to access Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies



JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said he personally considers Bitcoin (BTC) "useless," adding that it will face increased regulatory scrutiny in a while.

"No matter what anyone thinks about it, government is going to regulate it," Dimon said. "They are going to regulate it for (anti-money laundering) purposes, for (Bank Secrecy Act) purposes, for tax."

These bearish comments unavoidably pushed Bitcoin down to $ 56,200 on Tuesday, albeit above its price of $ 50,000 a week ago.

But Dimon stressed that his personal views may differ from those of JP Morgan's board of directors or asset management clients, and said the bank "can provide them with legal and cleanest access" to Bitcoin.

Indeed, JPMorgan and other asset management firms offer many ways to access Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. CoinShares said investment capital is pouring into the industry, including $ 226 million last week. Almost all streams go to Bitcoin, followed by Ethereum (ETH), Cardano (ADA) and Solana (SOL).



CoinShares also said that over the past eight weeks, $ 638 million has been transferred to crypto assets. As such, together with rising prices, assets under management are now just 5% below their all-time high of $ 67 billion.

More crypto-related products are also being launched. For example, Invesco released two ETFs last week: the Invesco Alerian Galaxy Crypto Economy ETF (SATO) and the Invesco Alerian GalaxyBlockchain Users and Decentralized Commerce ETF (BLKC).

So, Dimon is not really wrong when he said that regulations are likely to become tougher for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. In fact, the Biden administration already convened a task force to develop new rules for stablecoins, and the head of SEC, Gary Gensler, has repeatedly called for the regulation of some cryptocurrencies as securities.

Bloomberg also reported that the White House is currently considering an executive order to direct a number of federal agencies to study cryptocurrencies and recommend legislative changes.

The Congress is also considering new rules for crypto tax reporting.





Andrey Shevchenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021