Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for October 13, 2021


Crypto Industry News:
Bitfury, a cryptocurrency mining hardware manufacturer in Europe, is reportedly planning to go public. The company, which specializes in the supply of Bitcoin mining hardware and related services, allegedly contacted Deloitte, one of the top four accounting firms, to assess its readiness to issue a stock market on a regulated market.

The company wants to take advantage of the cryptocurrency boom to get better results in public markets. The last round of Bitfura funding was in 2018, when the company raised $ 80 million from investors such as Galaxy Digital's Mike Novogratz, earning a $ 1 billion valuation. Bitfury is reportedly considering Amsterdam or London as a possible market for its public offering.

If Bitfury takes the leap into being a publicly traded company, it won't be the first in the cryptocurrency space. Earlier this year, Coinbase, one of America's leading cryptocurrency exchanges, went public, giving investors the opportunity to invest in the future of the cryptocurrency world without investing directly in cryptocurrencies. After going public, the company had a valuation of $ 50 billion. Other cryptocurrency mining companies are already trading in public markets as well.

Canaan Mining, an Asian cryptocurrency mining hardware manufacturer, went public in the U.S. in November 2019, raising $ 90 million. Bitfury is also the parent company of Cipher Mining, which already trades on Nasdaq through a SPAC agreement with Good Works Acquisition Corp. Bitfury still owns a minority stake in the company.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD had pulled-back towards the technical support located at the level of $3,385 and continues the corrective cycle. There is a clear Bullish Engulfing pattern at the end of the last pull-back, so the bulls are back in control of the market. The next target is located at $3,677 and then at $3,830. The momentum is back into the positive zone, but is not that strong yet, so a more complex and time-consuming correction in a potential wave 4 is still possible.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $4,097
WR2 - $3,885
WR1 - $3,704

Weekly Pivot - $3,473
WS1 - $3,298
WS2 - $3,083
WS3 - $2,876


Trading Outlook:
Ethereum have started the next wave up and violated the long-term target at the level of $3,550. The next long-term target for ETH is seen at the level of $4,394. Nevertheless, in order to continue the long-term up trend, the price can not close below the technical support at the level of $2,906. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key long-term technical support for bulls.








Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for October 13, 2021


Crypto Industry News:
International airport Simona Bolivara is working to ensure that cryptocurrency payments are in line with local industry standards. The airport, also known as Maiquetia, is located in the center of Caracas, the capital of Venezuela.

According to Maiquetia director Freddy Borges, the airport plans to accept multiple cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin, Dash and Venezuelan digital currency Petro. He said the airport administration will introduce new payment options in coordination with the national oversight of crypto assets and related activities in Venezuela.

Introducing crypto payments at Maiquetia Airport would mean a commitment by the company to advance towards international standards and drive the adoption of digital currencies, Borges noted. According to the director, the crypto payment option would benefit foreign tourists, including those from Russia.

Several airports and airlines around the world have in recent years explored ways to introduce crypto payments and Blockchain-based features to provide better cash payment options and improve customer verification services. In March, the Latvian airline airBaltic began accepting Ethereum and Dogecoin as a form of payment for tickets.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has complete the wave 3 with a top at the level of $57,779 and is starting the correction in the wave 4. The immediate technical support is seen at the level of $55,748, but the corrective cycle in wave 4 might extend lower towards the key short-term technical support is located at $52,209. Please keep an eye on this level as any violation of this level will be negative for bulls.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $69,115
WR2 - $62,582
WR1 - $60,185

Weekly Pivot - $53,520
WS1 - $50,100
WS2 - $43,237
WS3 - $40,463


Trading Outlook:
According to the long-term charts the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. The next mid-term target is seen at the level of $59,506. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Jamie Dimon criticizes Bitcoin again



Bitcoin has continued to rise for the last few days, which was already expected. Even when Bitcoin surged to $ 55,000 per coin this weekend, the correction did not start, suggesting the continuation of growth. As a result, Bitcoin's quotes still reached the next resistance level of $ 56,500 and even consolidated above it, but the breakout turned out to be false, so it can be considered a rebound from the level. A collapse or a correction did not follow, but only a strong round of correction, which can now be already considered completed. Thus, a breakdown of the level of $ 56,500 could help the world's main cryptocurrency to further rise. It is also worth noting that a trend line cannot be formed at the moment, since the growth of the cryptocurrency is too strong and there are simply no pivot points.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin has received a new round of criticism from the CEO of JPMorgan investment bank Jamie Dimon. In his speech at an event organized by the Institute of International Finance, he stated that he does not pay any attention to Bitcoin and still believes that it has no value and it does not bring any benefit to humanity. Nevertheless, Dimon noted that the bank's clients are adults and have their own opinion on this issue. Therefore, if customers want to be able to buy bitcoin, then the bank must provide the most legal and secure way to do so.

In addition, it should be noted that the Bitcoin dominance index is rising again and is approaching 50%. It can be recalled that the so-called "altcoin season" began at the beginning of this year when it was the alternative cryptocurrencies that grew much stronger than bitcoin and had much greater potential to rise. That's when the first conversations began regarding the fact that bitcoin is becoming less promising for investors than, for example, Ethereum. However, investments now in bitcoin exceed investments in other cryptocurrencies, so it can be concluded that the markets are now using the most likely way to earn money. It can be said that the entire crypto market is united by bitcoin, so this may well explain the current "hype" around it. And since Bitcoin is growing, and other cryptocurrencies are not, although there are no good fundamental reasons for this at all, it means that the current growth is just a "hype", which was mentioned this weekend. Consequently, the current growth may continue for some time, but the "hype" usually ends with a collapse of the cryptocurrency, with a strong decline. Therefore, it is better to be cautious.



There is still an upward trend on the four-hour timeframe. The price already managed to break through the level of $ 56,500, so it is currently recommended to make a correction as the quotes fell under this level. However, we would not advise rushing sales. It is possible to open them in small lots with a Stop Loss above the level of $ 56,500. If the level of $56,500 is broken once again, the upward movement may continue with a target of $64,768. This level is the absolute high.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ether to climb higher


Ethereum retreated a little in the short term. Nevertheless, the bias remains bullish. It has retested the near-term downside obstacles. Now, it seems determined to jump higher. As long as it stays above 3453.05 weekly pivot point, ETH/USD could resume its upside journey.

It stands at 3514.15 at the time of writing far above 3404.33 yesterday's low. Ethereum is still up by 0.34% in the last 24 hours and by 1.01% in the last 7 days. The bias remains bullish, so ETH/USD could approach new highs soon if the price of bitcoin climbs higher.


ETH/USD IN THE GREEN!


Ethereum retested the ascending pitchfork's median line (ml). Now, it has jumped above the 23.6% retracement level and above the weekly pivot point of 3455.61 level. It could climb higher as long as it stays above the median line (ml).

A new high, a bullish closure above the weekly R1 (3639.92) signals an upside continuation. The bullish scenario could be invalidated only a valid breakdown below the median line (ml).


ETHEREUM OUTLOOK!
A false breakdown with great separation below or a major bullish engulfing here around the support levels could bring a new long opportunity. A valid breakout through the weekly R1 (3639.92) may announce a potential growth towards the 3900 and 4000 psychological levels.






Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Short-term XRPUSD analysis.


XRPUSD got rejected at key Fibonacci resistance level of $1.20 and has pulled back towards $1.05. Price is still trading inside a bullish channel and as long as price holds above the key $1-$0.98 support, bulls will have the upper hand.



Blue lines- bullish channel

Black lines -Fibonacci retracement

XRPUSD has resistance at $1.20-$1.23. Breaking above it will push price fast towards the 78.6% retracement around $1.29. It is important for bulls to stay inside the bullish channel and at the same time continue making higher highs and higher lows. The big question is whether XRPUSD has already made a major bottom and it is at its early stages of an upward movement, or there is still more downside to be seen and bulls are unable to break above $1.30-$1.40. The $1-$0.98 level is the key to this question. As long as we hold above it, XRPUSD could continue higher and even make new 2021 highs.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin signals start of a pull back.


Bitcoin got rejected at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement resistance and is now pulling back towards $55,000. Short-term trend remains bullish as long as price is above $39,500, but price is vulnerable in the near term to a pull back towards $50,000-$52,000 at least.



Black lines -Fibonacci retracement

Bitcoin price is getting rejected at important Fibonacci resistance. The RSI as we mentioned yesterday was at overbought levels and justifies at least a short-term pull back. Previous highs at $52,873 is our minimum pull back expectations. A back test of the broken resistance at $52,873 is our primary scenario. If Bitcoin prepares a bigger correction is difficult to tell right now.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Cardano breaks out of the triangle pattern.


In our previous posts about Cardano price action, we noted that price was expected to break out of the triangle until October the 15th the latest. Price today broke below the lower triangle boundary and provided us with a bearish signal.



Green lines - Fibonacci retracement

Black lines - triangle pattern

Cardano is trading at $2.12. Price is now below the lower triangle boundary. Support is found at the 50% retracement at $2.03 and failure to hold above this level will be another bearish signal. Price is now vulnerable to a move towards $2.03 and lower as long as price is below $2.35. Bulls need to break above $2.35 in order to regain control of the trend. The triangle break down in Cardano has potential to push price towards $1.70. However we need to keep a close eye on the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement which is key support.






Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin: Two Fundamental Signs of Bullish Dominance


Recently it became known that the SEC approved the creation of the Volt Crypto Industry Revolution and Tech ETF. And today, Bloomberg's chief ETF analyst Eric Balchunas again raised the topic of Bitcoin ETFs. They are expected to be approved by the US Securities and Exchange Commission in late October - early November this year.


Prospects for Bitcoin Futures ETF Approval

If all goes well, ProShares, the first to apply for a Bitcoin ETF, will be able to launch it in eight days.

Balchunas noted on Twitter that the SEC has a few days left to either approve or again delay consideration of the creation of Bitcoin futures ETFs. In 2021, nearly two dozen applications were submitted, including from the giants Galaxy Digital and VanEck.

The first application for a BTC ETF, according to Balchunas, came from ProShares. There is no news yet from the SEC about these bitcoin futures ETFs, but the expert says that in this particular case, the lack of news is perhaps good news.

But there is another side of the coin here. The same Balchunas notes that the crypto community may overestimate the demand for these bitcoin funds. He acknowledges that if they are launched, it will be a huge step forward. However, it is likely that in the first year their volume will not exceed $4 billion, and this is a very small amount.


Investors are in no hurry to sell bitcoin

A recent weekly report released by Glassnode shows that the total number of active Bitcoin addresses in the past week has reached 291,000, up nearly 19% since the beginning of October. The average transaction size for the main cryptocurrency has also grown. Now it is 1.3 BTC.

Long-term bitcoin holders have significantly increased their savings since March 2021. Over the past seven months, the volume of assets of long-term holders has grown by 2.37 million BTC. During the same period, only 186,000 new coins were mined.

At the same time, the daily number of active participants in the network has grown by 19% this week, reaching about 291,000. This value corresponds to the indicators of the end of 2020 at the beginning of the last bullish period. More active market participants have historically been correlated with growing interest in the asset in the early stages of bull markets, Glassnode notes.

Long-term holders now own a total of 13.28 million bitcoins. The latest Glassnode report shows that long-term bitcoin holders are still unwilling to sell their digital assets, despite the price of the main cryptocurrency rising above $57,000. In March 2021, the volume of coins in long-term holders was 10.91 million.

In parallel, there was a sharp decline in the supply of bitcoins on the exchange.

"Coin retention has dominated over the past 7 months, with over 2.37 million BTC crossing the short-term and long-term holding threshold (~155 days)," Glassnode added in its report.


Big growth or big disappointment?

So, several interesting events are brewing on the market: the possible approval of the Bitcoin ETF and the approach of the main cryptocurrency to historical highs. In the market, judging by the reduction in supply and the growth in the number of holders, this is expected.

And here, in my opinion, two scenarios are possible. Traders are well aware that the market is growing on rumors and expectations. While it pushes the price up. But reaching an all-time high, if it roughly coincides in time with the possible actual approval of the SEC funds, could lead to a fall in the main cryptocurrency. Firstly, some of the buyers are likely to fix profits, and secondly, sales based on facts have not been canceled.

The second scenario is a rapid passage of the historical high, as was the case with the 2017 high, without significant corrections. That's when you can soon expect $100,000 for one bitcoin.

But these are scenarios for the future, perhaps not very distant. So far, BTCUSD is rolling back to the level of 55,842.84 that was broken yesterday and, possibly, will confirm it as a support.








Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

China plans to prosecute miners and traders while 4 ETF applications await approval in the US. Bitcoin storms final resistance zone


While the rest of the world is watching the development of the cryptocurrency market and bitcoin separately, two opposing countries have taken diametrically opposite positions regarding digital assets. The Chinese authorities are going to tighten the existing restrictions, while the US waits for the approval of four more applications for the launch of ETF funds on BTC. At the same time, the main cryptocurrency is enjoying a temporary lull and is increasing its audience, preparing to storm the final resistance area.

Thanks to the positive news background, the bitcoin price managed to show a significant increase over the past month. The on-chain analysis of the main coin indicates the preservation of the current dynamics of investor growth, which has already provoked record volumes of transactions in the asset network. In addition, most of the network companies associated with BTC began to make profits after reaching lows in early September. Despite this, the Chinese authorities plan to continue repressions against the cryptocurrency market and all those involved. Relevant government groups are considering the possibility of prosecuting traders and mining companies in the country. This idea was approved by the State Prosecutor's Office, as well as the Ministry of Public Security. Due to the tightening of the current rules, Chinese crypto exchanges are forced to accelerate the pace of account liquidation, which may provoke a local sale or interruptions in the operation of the network algorithms of the main coins.

At the same time, the US decided to launch the first bitcoin ETF fund in the country. The market took this step with enthusiasm, which was reflected in the network metrics of the cryptocurrency. By the end of October, the SEC has four more potential positive decisions on launching ETF funds for BTC futures. On cryptocurrency platforms, open interest in bitcoin futures continues to grow, which indirectly confirms the approval of at least one application. However, even with the current news background, the BTC/USD pair looks very strong and will soon begin storming the final resistance area of $58k-$60k.



In addition to bullish signals on the technical charts of the coin, the continuation of the bullish rally is evidenced by a powerful increase in activity on the on-chain metrics. First of all, it is worth noting the growth in the number of unique addresses in the coin network, which indicates that the dynamics of the expansion of the BTC retail audience remains. This is also confirmed by record transaction volumes and the minimum supply of assets on crypto platforms since 2017. Taking into account the historical context, the bullish rally of the main crypto asset has always been associated with the expansion and activation of the retail audience, thanks to which the cryptocurrency looks more confident during corrective falls.





However, the main factor that indicates the continuation of bitcoin's bullish rally is the 30-day MVRV reading, which is below zero. The metric is moving near the value of -3, which indicates that most investors purchased cryptocurrency at a loss. With the current positive market situation, this means that players will continue to store coins or accumulate volumes in anticipation of growth. On-chain metrics continue to grow, and this time there is no obvious divergence between price and indicators on the charts, which indicates a planned and logical growth.



In the near future, BTC will begin to test the strength of the sales range of $58k-$60k, after which the coin will open the road to a historical maximum. Most likely, the coin will not be able to conquer the resistance area on the first attempt, and therefore we are waiting for a systematic growth with local pullbacks to the support zones during this week. However, taking into account the changing news background and the activation of large capital that buys bitcoin instead of gold, the situation on the Bitcoin market may change in a few days.





Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading signal for Ethereum (ETH) for October 12 - 13, 2021: Buy above 3,400 (6/8)



Since October 10, Ether (ETH/USD) has been falling below the SMA of 21. It seems to be forming a descending wedge pattern. A break of this technical figure can confirm a bullish movement and could reach the resistance level of 8/8 Murray located at 3,750.

If the bulls push and close the daily price above 3,600, then a new bullish wave could be expected, and it could go all the way to the psychological level of 4,000. If the 7/8 Murray level turns out to be very strong and consolidation occurs instead of a breakout, then it will be a good opportunity to sell below the 21 SMA located at 3,528.

The opportunity to continue the bullish movement is based on Ether being above the 200 EMA today at 3.3319. A technical bounce around this zone will be a good opportunity to buy with targets at 3,528, and if it sharply surpasses this resistance it could reach 3,750 and 4,000.

On the contrary, a daily close below the EMA of 200 (3,319) will mean that the bulls wait for the levels of 3,125 or 2,812 to take new entries, which could result in a new bullish cycle. It remains to wait to take action according to the result of price action.

Our forecast is to buy at the current price level above 3,400, the first target at 3,528 and up to 8/8 of Murray at 3,750. Alternatively, only a daily close below the EMA of 200 (3,300) will give us the opportunity to sell with targets at 3,125 and up to strong support at 2,812.

The Eagle indicator is showing a neutral signal. It is likely that Ether will continue flutuating within a price range between 3,600-3,300 above these limits, the next movement could be defined.


Support and Resistance Levels for October 12 - 13, 2021
Resistance (3) 3,693
Resistance (2) 3,611
Resistance (1) 3,487

Support (1) 3,356
Support (2) 3,281
Support (3) 3,125


A trading tip for Ether for October 12 - 13, 2021
Buy in case of a rebound at 3,319 or above 3,400 (6/8) with the take profit at 3,528 and 3750 (8/8), the stop loss is below 3,235.






Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021