Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin is preparing again for a massive decline



Over the weekend, Bitcoin collapsed again. In principle, this behavior of the world's main cryptocurrency has already been observed quite often. The decline usually occurs on Sunday or Monday night. Therefore, the corrective scenario currently remains in force, since Bitcoin has not managed to develop a new upward movement and return to the level of $ 51,350. Instead, a new downward trend line has formed, and the quotes fell below the Ichimoku cloud again and are around the support level of $ 43,852, from which a rebound has already occurred twice in recent weeks. In this case, the cryptocurrency can test this level for the third time today or tomorrow and its further prospects entirely depend on breaking through it or not.

It is worth noting that the results of the Fed's next meeting will be summed up this Wednesday. This meeting may be very important, as the regulator may decide to wind down the quantitative stimulus program at it. From our point of view, part of the funds that the Fed pours into the American economy also settles on the cryptocurrency market. Accordingly, it can be assumed that Bitcoin's growth in the last year and a half is also partly due to the actions of the Fed, which it may severely limit in the coming months. It can also be recalled that the "bullish" trend could end near the level of $ 64,756, and all the movements that were seen after that could be consolidated. Bitcoin can consolidate for a year or two before starting a new "bullish" trend. Despite the growth of its quotes in the last few months, it is still impossible to conclude unequivocally that the upward trend has been restored.

It should also be borne in mind that the fundamental background for Bitcoin remains very weak. We have already questioned the validity of the last round of cryptocurrency growth by more than $20,000. From our point of view, there were no concrete and compelling reasons for such a movement. Any assumption requires technical confirmation. A new "infrastructure" package may be adopted in the States in the near future, within the framework of which the tax legislation will also be updated, which will oblige the collection of all personal information for all transactions over $10,000. The US authorities also want to replenish the budget by $ 29 billion by levying taxes on cryptocurrency transactions. However, there is no news that could support BTC right now.

As usual, the market is full of forecasts like "$ 100,000 by the end of the year" or "$ 500,000 in the next 5 years", but it can be recalled that such forecasts are given by those people who are personally interested in the growth of the Bitcoin rate. A striking example is the CEO of Microstrategy or the head of ARK Invest, who regularly notify the markets about the imminent growth of the cryptocurrency. Naturally, if Microstrategy has invested several billion dollars in the main cryptocurrency, it needs it to continue growing. However, it can grow only if the market believes in this very growth.



The downward trend is cleary shown in the four-hour time frame. It was unlikely to continue the movement to the level of $ 51,350, so a decline to $ 43,852 level is now expected. Earlier, the bears failed to break through the important level of $ 43,852 twice. Therefore, the third rebound from this level may provoke growth again and even consolidation above the downward trend line. Technically, it is possible to buy Bitcoin with a rebound from $ 43,852, while sales can be considered after consolidating below this level.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Elliott wave analysis of Ripple for September 20, 2021



Ripple should move closer to the 61.8% corrective target near 0.8560 before completing the corrective decline in wave ii. If so, we will be looking for the next strong impulsive rally in wave iii towards 2.3227 and maybe even higher.

In the short term, we see resistance near 1.0526, which is expected to cap the upside for the corrective decline to 0.8560 and the higher in the next impulsive rally towards 2.3227.




Torben Melsted
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical analysis of Litecoin/USD for September 20, 2021



Litecoin should move just below 161.00 to complete the expanded flat correction and then shoot higher towards the former peak near 414 and ultimately above here too. In the short term, we expect resistance near 171.45 to cap the upside for the expected dip to just below 161.00 to complete the corrective decline before the next strong impulsive rally is in the cards.





Torben Melsted
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical analysis for BCH/USD pair

BCH/USD



The bulls were able to work out the upward target for the breakdown of the daily cloud (805.67) almost perfectly, but they failed to hold on to the situation and consolidate at the reached heights. Thus, its opponent managed to achieve a major decline. The reference and support here was the weekly short-term trend (593.30). The decline was replaced by a long consolidation, the center of gravity is currently the daily levels 624.54 - 639.28 (Tenkan + the upper border of the daily cloud). The persistence of uncertainty, which led to consolidation, will keep the pair in the range of influence of 625-639. To change the situation, players need to break through the resistances that have united in a fairly wide zone 669.15 - 694.57 - 708.92 - 719.99 (daily cross levels + monthly Fibo Kijun). In order for new prospects to appear, the short-term weekly trend (593.30) must finally be captured, since it blocks the way to support the lower border of the daily cloud (547.96) and the upper border of the weekly cloud (529.78).



The key levels in the smaller time frames help contain the situation for the levels of the higher ones (625 - 639), which are now located at 624 - 633 (central pivot level + weekly long-term trend). Such a situation has been developing for a long time in the influence and attraction zone of these levels. The location and trading below the levels create some advantages for the bears. After breaking the current support 612 (S1), the next pivot points on the hourly chart can be noted at 604 (S2) and 592 (S3). In case of consolidation above the key levels (624 - 633) of the higher time frames, the preponderance of forces will shift to the bullish side. Their reference pivot points will be the resistances of the classic pivot levels 644 and 652.


Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) and Kijun-sen levels in the higher time frames, as well as classic Pivot Points and Moving Average (120) on the H1 chart, are used in the technical analysis of the trading instruments.





Evangelos Poulakis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin remains vulnerable to another bearish reversal.

Bitcoin made a new higher high yesterday at $48,719. Short-term trend remains bullish however there are several signs pointing to a coming reversal. The RSI has provided a bearish divergence as it did not make higher highs. Price is showing rejection signs at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline.



Green lines - Fibonacci retracements

Green rectangle- bounce target area

Bitcoin made a higher high closer to our bounce target area. Price is showing reversal signs after reaching between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Failure to stay above $46,600 will be a sign of reversal. So far we only have a warning of an imminent reversal. Our primary scenario remains bearish expecting another leg lower towards $37,000. Bears want to see price stay below the 61.8% Fibonacci level and eventually break below $46,000.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for September 17, 2021

Crypto Industry news:
AMC Entertainment will not only accept Bitcoin payments for movie tickets by the end of 2022, but will also include other popular digital currencies in its crypto acceptance policy.

Tweeting on Thursday, company president Adam Aron announced plans for AMC to adopt three other cryptocurrencies, including Ether, Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash (BCH).

As previously reported in the media, AMC initially revealed plans to accept Bitcoin payments for movie tickets before the end of the year.

At the time, Aron said moviegoers were keen to use crypto as a means of payment for tickets and concessions at AMC locations in the United States.

The head of AMC also said the company is working to finalize the necessary procedures required to accept crypto payments.

As with the August announcement, Aron's tweet revealing plans for an expanded cryptocurrency acceptance program also received considerable criticism from Dogecoin supporters for not including the popular "meme coin."

AMC's acceptance of cryptocurrencies is part of a trend where well-known retail establishments support cryptocurrency payments throughout the United States.


Technical Market Outlook
The ETH/USD pair has broken above the supply zone located between the levels of $3,552 - $3,596 and made a new local high at the level of $3,675. The market pulled-back then slightly towards the level of $3,489. The supply zone will now act as a technical support for the price, together with the level of $3,489. The bulls are in control of the price and the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $3,706 and $3,880. The positive and strong momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook despite the overbought market conditions.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $4,704
WR2 - $4,312
WR1 - $3,783

Weekly Pivot - $3,411
WS1 - $2,806
WS2 - $2,445
WS3 - $1,829


Trading Outlook:
Ethereum have started the next wave up and violated the long-term target at the level of $3,550. The next long-term target for ETH is seen at the level of $4,394. Nevertheless, in order to continue the long-term up trend, the price can not break below the technical support at the level of $2,906. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key long-term technical support for bulls.







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for September 17, 2021

Crypto Industry news:
Bitcoin's short-term supply continues to shrink. The number of BTC changing owners drops to 2015 levels. According to the latest Arcane Research report, the BTC supply shock continues as the number of owner change coins drops to levels not seen since 2015.

The "number of bitcoin changing owners" here refers to all coins that have recently been issued. The timeframe for supply depends on the approach taken, but the chart in the report uses supply metrics on a 1-month and 3-month scale.

This dimension of supply is often referred to as "short-term" - such coins are associated with traders who want to make quick profits.

On the other hand, long-term supply shows the number of coins that have not been transferred in the last few months, so the indicator is related to holders showing an HODL attitude. Only 6.8% of the supply in circulation changed hands in the last month. The indicator for the 3-month metric is approximately 15.8%.

The 1-month supply of bitcoin is currently all the time low, while the 3-month supply remains close to 2015.

The recent price movement above the 50k mark USD resulted in a slight increase in supply in one month. This was mainly due to the movements of coins issued in the last 1-3 months.

Only short-term profit-taking holders moved their BTC during this period. This means that long-term holders have not moved their coins during the recent gains and are waiting for the BTC price to rise further. The low short-term supply may therefore prove to be a pro-growth signal for price.


Technical Market Outlook
The BTC/USD pair has been rejected from the 50% Fibonacci retracement seen at the level of $48,044. After the shallow pull-back, the bulls are trying again to break out higher. The support is located at the level of $47,290. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $49,162 (61% Fibonacci retracement) and $49,316 (technical resistance). The positive and strong momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook despite the overbought market conditions.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $59,391
WR2 - $56,198
WR1 - $49,661

Weekly Pivot - $46,351
WS1 - $40,043
WS2 - $36,782
WS3 - $30,164


Trading Outlook:
According to the long-term charts the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. The next mid-term target is seen at the level of $59,506. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).








Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

ECB intends to regulate cryptocurrencies



Yesterday, Bitcoin almost consolidated above the Ichimoku cloud, but it still declined at the last moment and remained inside it. In this case, there remains the last impassable border before approaching the upside. At the same time, the cryptocurrency corrected by exactly 50% against the last collapse, which suggests the continuation of the corrective movement. Moreover, it was previously mentioned that the fundamental background is now clearly not positive for cryptocurrencies. It can be recalled that many central banks are beginning to look more closely at the development of the cryptocurrency and digital segment and believe that these areas require strict regulation. Just yesterday, investor and billionaire Ray Dalio said that central banks and governments could well destroy bitcoin since they have the necessary capabilities to do so. On the same day, ECB President Christine Lagarde made a speech, which stated the need to regulate cryptocurrencies. She called cryptocurrencies speculative assets and said they are not "real currencies."

At the same time, Mike McGlone confirmed his forecast for the value of bitcoin for 2021. He said that there is currently a trend around the world for the introduction of digital assets, which will help bitcoin increase to $ 100,000 in the next few months.

Meanwhile, there were protests in El Salvador against the country's President Nayib Bukele. Not so long ago, El Salvador became the first country in the world to officially recognize bitcoin as a means of payment. There was a wave of protests across the country immediately on that day, as many people do not want their pensions, social benefits, and salaries to depend on unstable bitcoin. The reason for the new protests is reportedly the same. The demonstrators also believe that President Bukele is increasingly moving towards authoritarianism and forgetting about democracy. It is reported that ATMs that are supposed to process bitcoin transactions have not worked most of the time since the official recognition of bitcoin as a means of payment. The people of El Salvador believe that the bitcoin exchange rate fluctuates greatly and changes every second, so the cryptocurrency itself cannot be used as a means of payment. It can be recalled that the country's authorities want to facilitate investment in the country's economy by approving Bitcoin. The fact is that many Salvadorans are working abroad and send money home, paying huge commissions for bank transfers. With the help of the main cryptocurrency, cross-border transfers can be made almost for free. However, it can be seen that not everyone supports the initiative of the country's authorities.

As a result, Bitcoin did not and does not have a positive fundamental background. The cryptocurrency continues to trade near the level of $ 50,000, but at the same time, it can decline at any time. If central banks and governments continue to work to tighten the regulation of the cryptocurrency sphere, then Bitcoin will experience market pressure. It was already mentioned that it can simply become a less attractive investment tool, and most traders and investors use it for investment purposes.



There is a clear downward trend on the four-hour time frame, but the price may consolidate above the Ichimoku cloud in the near future, which will open up excellent growth prospects to the level of $ 51,350. It should be recognized that the bears once again showed themselves on the weak side and failed to break through the important level of $ 43,852 twice. Thus, it is possible that growth will resume, and sales should not be considered until the price consolidates below the level of $ 43,852.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

The head of the Bank of Mexico calls Bitcoin the best financial instrument of the future, and the governor of the Swedish bank Riksbank, Stefan Ingves, compared BTC trading to trade in stamps



Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves drew a parallel between buying and selling branded bitcoin and questioned the longevity of the crypto market without proper regulation and government support. The governor of the Swedish bank Stefan Ingves believes that sooner or later, you can go bankrupt and remain at a broken trough.

At first, you might get rich trading bitcoin, but that is comparable to trading stamps. Earlier this year, Stefan Ingves made it clear that cryptocurrencies will not be able to escape tight control from regulators such as the Securities and Exchange Commission due to their demand.

The odious billionaire investor Leon Cooperman is also skeptical about bitcoin, calling it a pointless bubble. Cooperman says that if you don't know what bitcoin is and what value it has to people, then you are old.

"I'm 78 years old, it turns out that I'm old, so I still don't understand what value this cryptocurrency represents".

Cooperman is confident that gold is the best asset to store his savings, and also the best protective asset against inflation. However, Cooperman himself also does not own gold, since he completely keeps all his savings in fiat and believes only in the dollar and its prosperity.

The US government is not interested in bitcoin, so Cooperman believes that bitcoin may soon be very much pressed. However, there are also positive statements. Unlike Cooperman and Ingves, the head of the Bank of Mexico Banxico called bitcoin a financial instrument of the future.

"This is not just money, bitcoin is more like a means of barter. However, it is unlikely that it can be adopted at the legislative level and considered a legal tender in any country."

The head of the Mexican bank is sure. that in order for cryptocurrency to be considered, bitcoin must become a proven and reliable payment method. Be resistant to market crashes, be less volatile.

This statement by the head of the Mexican bank appeared after El Salvador adopted Bitcoin as a payment at the legislative level. Panama is also in the process of digitalization and transition to digital money.





Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

$2.8 billion in three days: Institutions continue to increase BTC volumes as it nears important resistance area

The first cryptocurrency made a powerful rebound from the support zone at $43,000 and continues to move towards $50,000. However, after forming two bullish candles in a row, the asset began to weaken and fall in price. Taking into account the current technical indicators of the coin and the audience's reaction to a possible breakout of $48,000, its rebound is technical in nature. The cryptocurrency has come close to an important resistance zone, but there are all the prerequisites for a reversal. Despite this local negative, the general mood towards bitcoin continues to be positive.



Over the past day, the cryptocurrency continued to consolidate in a narrow range and practically did not change in price. At the same time, it is worth noting the significantly sagged daily trading volumes, up to $31 billion. The technical charts of the asset also indicate a possible reversal and a fall in the price to the nearest lows. The coin came close to the $48,000 mark, but after an unsuccessful retest, it began to roll back. As of 14:30 UTC, the cryptocurrency is trading at $47,700, but it cannot successfully consolidate above the zone where a large number of options for sale are concentrated and there was a powerful profit-taking on September 13.

As a result, the coin looks extremely weak on the technical charts and is likely to continue its downward movement. This is indicated by several factors, including the negative two-hour dynamics of the price movement and weak trading volumes, which indicate the inability of buyers to absorb the offered volumes. On the hourly chart, the coin looks weak and shows the prerequisites for the breakdown of the upward support line from September 13. This is a clear bearish signal, which is also confirmed by horizontal charts. Despite the local signal from the stochastic, the MACD and RSI maintain a downward trajectory, which indicates a movement to the lower part of the oscillation corridor. A similar picture is observed on the four-hour chart, where the MACD showed signs of an upward movement, but now it is nearing the formation of a bearish crossover.



On the daily chart, the situation is clearly bearish, although the MACD shows a weak momentum for growth. However, for this, the market needs to increase volumes, since the current supply of bears is too much for buyers. In this regard, it is quite likely that the coin will move to the local support zone at $47,400, at the breakdown of which the price will go to $47,000. If the bearish dynamics worsen, the cryptocurrency will meet resistance in two key support zones at $46,700, $46,000, and $45,000. If these boundaries are broken, there may be a question of a reversal of the medium-term trend and an aggravation of the downward dynamics. In this case, the price should be caught near the key support zone at $42,800.



Despite the local negative, the overall market situation continues to remain bullish. The current drop should be used as an opportunity to buy back at lower levels. At the same time, we cannot exclude the possibility of manipulation by whales, which increasingly affect the price movement. Over the past three days, the institutions have bought more bitcoin for $2.8 billion, and since September, an upward dynamics of accumulation has formed. The total amount of bitcoins purchased since the beginning of September reaches $7 billion. And only 7% of this amount is due to MicroStrategy, which indicates a large number of institutional companies. This is a positive signal for the entire market, as BTC is still relevant in the long term. It is the weak mobility of whales at the current stage that does not allow the price to break through the important area of $48,000-$50,000.



However, all the prerequisites are visible for the fact that the accumulation phase is coming to an end and this indicates the imminent beginning of an upward movement. And this is facilitated by institutions that reduce the pressure on the price with powerful savings and help to form strong support shelves. With this in mind, it is worth taking a wait-and-see position and preparing for an attempt to break through the final $50,100 zone, where several important resistance levels are passing.





Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021