Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Bitcoin Downside Seems Over!

Bitcoin has managed to rebound and recover after its last drop. It's located at the 46,551 level at the time of writing. Technically, BTC/USD is pressuring a dynamic resistance. Making a valid breakout through this line may bring new long opportunities as the price could climb higher.

Bitcoin it's up by 4.75% in the last 24 hours and it seems determined to climb higher after failing to approach and retest 42,900 former low.


BTC/USD RANGE BREAKOUT EXPECTED SOON!


As you can see on the H4 chart, Bitcoin is trapped between 47637 and 42,900 levels. It's challenging the sixth warning line (wl6) of a former descending pitchfork. Closing and stabilizing above this dynamic resistance may bring new long signals.

In the short term, BTC/USD could resume its sideways movement. The immediate resistance level and the next upside target is represented by 47,295.59 level. The support is seen around the 43,000 psychological level.


OUTLOOK!
A valid breakout above 47,637 and through 48,000 could be seen as a buying opportunity.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin: Bears are exhausted, it's time for the bulls to take over

Bitcoin looks more optimistic on Tuesday. Yesterday the support level 44,807.24 (red dotted line) held out, and today the price is growing from it.

Of course, the daily candle is not closed yet, and the bearish flag is still there. But on-chain analysts point out that bitcoin bears are depleted and even selling at a loss this week, fresh data confirm.

Philip Swift, an analyst at the Decentrader trading platform, noticed that the bullish trend in relation to the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) persists.

SOPR, a classic indicator for determining oversold periods in the bitcoin markets, among other things, switched to "buy" for the first time since July last week.

The last time this happened, the price of BTC/USD rose to $53,000 over the next few weeks. Now, according to the expert, there are also high hopes for a repeat of this situation.

"Over the past few days, we've seen more online sales at a loss. This is optimistic, especially after the aggressive summer sales. The bears get tired. It's time for the bitcoin bulls to take over very soon," wrote Swift.

Investors are also betting on continued gains despite last week's price drop. Institutional investors continue not only not to sell, but also to buy cryptocurrency. This is evidenced by yesterday's statement by MicroStrategy about the purchase of 5,050 bitcoins.

Analyst Willy Woo, for example, took this as a sign that the company is acting as a custodian of bitcoins for others. He believes that it is easier for public companies to buy a convertible debt instrument from MicroStrategy in order to gain access to BTC than to hold the underlying asset.

On the other hand, Glassnode data shows bitcoin investors remain unmoved despite a huge drawdown that saw bitcoin plummet more than 50% in May.

Glassnode reports that recent intra-network indicators have shown that many bitcoins have changed places during the May correction and that long-term holders or investors who have kept their bitcoins inactive for at least five months are not afraid of volatility.

The company notes that over 16.8% of the BTC supply has been spent in the past 5 months and returned with a profit at a recent high of $52,800. Long-term holders now own 79.5% of the BTC supply, which is the equivalent of October 2020.

This suggests that many coins changed hands during the recent consolidation in the $29,000 to $40,000 range. It also indicates that BTC acquired in Q1 and Q2 2021 continues to hold, and investors are not worried about a drawdown of more than 50%.

Glassnode also notes that despite the September 7 drop, investors who bought bitcoin in the $45,800-$52,600 range continue to hold onto their coins, even though some positions remain in the red.

So, perhaps, fears about the bearish flag will not come true. But even if the fall deepens, it is unlikely to break the bullish outlook.

In the meantime, we will slightly shift the mirror level 47,124.39 (lower blue dotted line) and wait for a consolidation above it. If it happens, hopes for recovery, at least local, will remain.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for September 14,.2021 - Decision level at $47.300

Technical Analysis:



BTC has been trading upside but the key pivot at the price of $47,300 is near and there is potential for the rotation.


Trading recommendation:
Key level to watch is level at $47,350.

In case of the reversal pattern around thee key pivot at $47,350, I can see potential downside rotation towards $43,500

In case of the upside breakout of the $47,350 with good fallow trough, I can see upside towards $48,000-$48,500




Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Etherium's blockchain to outperform Bitcoin domination

While discussing the cryptocurrency market future, experts agree that Bitcoin and Etherium remain the two main forces among digital assets. Currently, Bitcoin is the digital asset number one, and having 40% of the cryptocurrency market proves its dominance. However, Ethereum becomes a trendsetter on the crypto market and Bitcoin will have to face this fact. Ethereum's main advantage is its multifunctional blockchain, the development of which is directly related to the value of the cryptocurrency.

As of September 14, Ethereum's blockchain is the leader in the use and creation of third-party projects. The altcoin's ecosystem allows multiple projects to gain an advantage, function, and expand faster than their competitors. First of all, this is evident from the numbers: most of the DeFi sector, which is developing by leaps and bounds, is based on Ethereum's blockchain. The rate and number of transactions, fees, and advanced ecosystem make ETH blockchain much more attractive than its competitors, which also affects its price.

It is very easy to trace this connection, for example, the UK accounting firm Ernst & Young, which has integrated the Polygon protocol to scale its own ETH solutions. With this innovation, the firm could significantly increase the speed, number, and security of transactions. In addition, the algorithm provides the ability to transfer financial transactions to the public Ethereum network, which directly affects the quotation of the coin. Furthermore, the company announced new products closely related to the ETH solutions. Other numbers look even more impressive. The total value of blocked assets of the ETH second-tier solution Arbitrum rose to $2.2 billion.

Concluding the obvious advantage of the ether network over the bitcoin, one should mention that the number of the ETH second-tier transactions exceeded bitcoin's one. According to analyst Evan Van Ness, this trend has just begun to take shape and will reach a larger scale in the future. The future of the two cryptocurrencies was summed up by a Standard Chartered expert who confirmed that Etherium's price growth rate will surpass Bitcoin's.

At 5:00 p.m., Etherium is quoted at $3.300 and continues to trade within the descending parallel channel. The hourly chart is preparing a rising trend, which will be triggered shortly. If it is successfully overcome, the asset may reach $3.400 and even $3.500. However, the technical indicators of the coin point to the strong pressure on the price, so this is unlikely to happen.



The four-hour chart shows a less miserable picture and there are clear signals for the consolidation period to continue. The RSI is moving around the level of 50 and the MACD and stochastic are showing weak signs of upward movement. A bearish divergence in the MACD is likely and that may be a sign for a further downside trend.



The daily chart shows the coin's recovery from the recent collapse. The main indicators are moving sideways, hinting at a period of accumulation. The on-chain charts show a similar situation, where the number of unique addresses gained an upward trend, but the total number of transactions fell by 9%. Accordingly, Etherium may continue to recover from the fall, and the fluctuations within the descending parallel channel are likely to continue for some time.






Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading signal for Ethereum, ETH, for September 14 - 15, 2021: Buy and sell on the sides of the triangle.



In the early hours of the American session, the price of Ethereum ETH is trading within a technical pattern of a symmetrical triangle. The price has been consolidating since September 7 between a range of 3,550 - 3,120. There is no bullish signal for now as it is below the EMA of 200.

Investors can expect ETH to sharply break the technical pattern of the symmetrical triangle and consolidate above the 7/8 murray line located at 3,437. If that happens, it will be the beginning of a bullish scenario.

However, as long as it remains below the 8/8 murray line located at 3,750. Any bullish attempt or move that approaches this level will be an opportunity for bears to push Ethereum aggressively down. Besides, at this level there are fears that crypto investors could liquidate their call options. Therefore, for us it will be a good selling opportunity.

As long as Ethereum is trading within the triangle and below the 200 EMA, we can operate the bearish and bullish sequence on the sides of the triangle.

A sharp break and a consolidation below the 6/8 murray line located at 3,125 will be a sign of a bearish scenario. So, the price could easily reach the psychological level of 3.000. If the bearish force prevails, the price may reach the support of 2,812 and 5/8 level of murray.

Around 2,812 will be a good point, if you are thinking of buying ETH. Since the eagle indicator that measures the volume and strength of the market is showing an oversold signal, we must wait for a good critical support to buy.


Support and Resistance Levels for September 14 - 15, 2021
Resistance (3) 3,750
Resistance (2) 3,614
Resistance (1) 3,437

Support (1) 3,125
Support (2) 2,938
Support (3) 2,772





Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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India takes back bitcoin ban, South Korea shuts down crypto exchanges



After the September 7 crash, bitcoin worked out the upper line of the expanding side channel twice, which was formed a couple of months ago on a 24-hour timeframe. The price left this channel about a month ago, however, its borders are still of great technical importance. In particular, they now act as support for the movement of bitcoin. The level of $43,852 also acts as a support, from which the price has also rebounded twice. Consequently, further downward movement is now questionable, however, the upward trend cannot be restored yet. A correction seems to be the most probable, but note that before the quotes fix below the level of $43,852, bitcoin should not be sold. That is, we trade clearly on signals.

India has decided to limit the introduction of taxation on operations with cryptocurrencies instead of completely banning them. Recall that back in the spring of this year, there were persistent rumors that the Indian authorities intend to completely ban bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Now, the country has decided to lift the ban on bitcoin and will recognize it as an asset class to be taxed. This is good news for bitcoin because, after the greatly tightening of the circulation of cryptocurrencies in China, many participants in the cryptocurrency market feared that other countries would follow its example. But, so far, the only large country that has issued a complete ban was China.

Meanwhile, South Korea's central bank has demanded the closure of 40 of 60 cryptocurrency exchanges that do not meet the requirements of the Financial Services Commission. The Commission demanded that all exchanges undergo mandatory registration by September 24 and notify their clients of a possible closure. However, the largest 5 exchanges in South Korea account for up to 90% of all trading operations, so even if 55 exchanges out of 60 close, it will not cause serious damage to the crypto industry. But the regulator still fears the loss of many investors who work with unscrupulous cryptocurrency exchanges, for which client protection is not a priority.

Thus, the fundamental background for bitcoin remains unchanged. Considering the fact that the cryptocurrency has still grown by as much as $20,000 in recent months, a correction would be a very logical continuation. On the 24-hour timeframe, bitcoin quotes are located only below the critical line, but above the Ichimoku cloud. To continue the correction, the price must consolidate below the upper channel line and the level of $43,852.

The markets also continue to expect information from the US government on the introduction of taxation on cryptocurrency transactions, as well as the mandatory collection of personal data of all clients of crypto exchanges as part of a new stimulus package called "infrastructure." We linked the last round of bitcoin growth precisely with the fact that investors could be in a hurry to buy bitcoin before innovations, which will make digital gold transactions less attractive. Moreover, the Fed continues to inject hundreds of billions of dollars into the economy, some of which flows into the cryptocurrency market. Therefore, if the price consolidates above the critical line, the upward trend may resume.



On the 24-hour timeframe, bitcoin began a correction, but now the cryptocurrency needs to overcome the $43,852 level and the upper channel line for the downward movement to continue. Only in this case, we advise selling with a target of $40,000. If the price consolidates above the Kijun-sen line, then you may consider buying bitcoin with a target of $50,772.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Short-term analysis on Bitcoin for September 14, 2021.

Bitcoin made another try to break below $43,000 yesterday but bulls respected support and price is now again bouncing towards $46,500. There is potential for a bigger bounce as we mentioned in our previous analysis as the RSI has provided a short-term bullish divergence.



Red lines- bullish divergence

Green lines -Fibonacci retracement levels

Green rectangle -bounce target area

Bitcoin continues to trade above the important 38% Fibonacci retracement level. As long as this is the case we expect a bounce towards the green rectangle area around $49,000 price level. Short-term trend remains bearish as price is making lower lows and lower highs. The RSI is not following price and has already provided a bullish divergence. That is why we expect at least a short-term bounce. The bullish divergence is not a reversal signal but only a warning. For short time frames this signals can be ignored, but traders need to be cautious as at this point such a bounce is justified. Failure to hold above $43,000 will be a bearish sign. Next downside target is at $40,800 and next at $38,200.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

MicroStrategy: Is Bitcoin done with its consolidation phase?

Bitcoin noticeably suffered during the recent collapse, testing the support level of $42,600. Subsequently, the asset rebounded to $46,000, but it has been in a state of accumulation for the past week. Due to the panic sale and a number of other factors, strong pressure was exerted on Bitcoin's price. However, an analysis of the current cryptocurrency indicators indicates a possible end of the consolidation phase and an attempt to rise.

The main cryptocurrency is still trading above the short-term support, but a formation for growth is visible in the narrow term. Long-term charts are also beginning to take on the bullish trend. Yesterday, Bitcoin has risen by 4% and is quoted at $46,000 earlier. At the same time, it is worth highlighting the upward dynamics of trading volumes, which indicates the activation of cryptocurrency audiences. The two-hour dynamics of the price movement indicates the continuation of the movement towards $47,000 level. The same picture can be seen on the technical charts of this digital asset, which gives hope for an attempt to break through the two nearest resistance lines: $47,800 and $49,000.

Looking at the hourly time frame, Bitcoin has formed a local formation for growth. If this is developed, the cryptocurrency will receive an additional growth impulse. It is worth noting that the technical charts do not express just a single bullish mood. The RSI indicator is moving along the 60th line, and the MACD has left the red zone and continues strong increase. Meanwhile, the stochastic shows signs of a reversal, which indicates the possible formation of a bullish divergence.



The four-hour time frame is showing a tendency to form a bullish impulse. The RSI indicator is moving along the 50th mark, while the MACD maintains an upward movement and approaches the zero mark. At the same time, the stochastic looks much smoother than on the hourly chart and indicates the continuation of the consolidation period. In other words, Bitcoin is conducive to growth, but the market is not in a rush to im the bullish potential, which is evident from the stochastic movement.



Bitcoin looks weak at a wider distance. The daily chart of the cryptocurrency indicates the initial stage of the recovery period. The RSI indicator is just beginning to move towards the 60 mark, and the MACD is in the red zone. At the same time, the stochastic began an upward movement, which indicates a positive trend while maintaining the current position of the cryptocurrency. The only concern is a possible bearish divergence in stochastic and RSI, which are gradually increasing.



In addition to technical charts, it is worth highlighting the on-chain indicators of the coin. Bitcoin managed to eliminate the price lag from the Daily Active Addresses indicator. As of 10:00 UCT+00, the number of unique addresses in the BTC network is on par with the current price of the asset. With a successful period of consolidation and the continuation of the upward dynamics of the growth of the number of unique addresses, we can count on a gradual and absolutely justified growth of Bitcoin. This was significantly facilitated by another investment from MicroStrategy, which acquired another $220 million worth of bitcoins, as well as strong support from Twitter. In the near future, these factors will become the fundamental basis for the growth of the main cryptocurrency.



However, Bitcoin is currently not ready for a bullish breakout. On-chain indicators and technical charts are encouraging, but there are too many coins on the market that put pressure on the price. It is also worth noting the passive behavior of large investors, because of which there is no powerful player in the buyer's market that can set an impulse for the retail audience. The MACD indicator, which is still near the 16% mark, should also be considered. This is an extremely high indicator and also puts pressure on the price. Taking all this into account, we should expect intra-range trading and the continuation of the accumulation period in the near future.






Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Gary Gensler is open to crypto ETFs



The long-awaited Bitcoin ETF may finally become a reality, but not in the way many investors expected. Recently, the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Gary Gensler, made it clear that he is open to the idea of a crypto ETF.

While bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies can be bought easily from financial platforms such as Robinhood (ticker: HOOD) and PayPal (PYPL), ETFs will eliminate issues on digital wallet management and allow investors to integrate digital currency into their portfolios.

In addition, Bitcoin ETFs can have two structures:

- directly own coins (similar to gold ETFs);

- hold futures contracts that place a bet on whether the price will rise or fall (like many oil and other commodity ETFs).

At least two dozen fund managers have applied for ETFs that will physically hold crypto assets. And the most popular Bitcoin ETF alternative, the $ 30 Billion Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), also contains real bitcoins and plans to convert them to ETFs as soon as regulators allow it.

But the SEC has been wary of regulating the crypto market, refusing to approve a Bitcoin ETF for years. So when US President Joe Biden appointed Gensler, who, in addition to leading the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), taught cryptocurrency and blockchain technology at MIT, investors were upbeat.

Gensler's recent comments seem to signal more openness to ETFs that track bitcoin futures than bitcoin itself. This led to a flood of new Bitcoin ETF futures applications from financial managers including ProShares, Invesco, VanEck, Valkyrie Digital Assets and Galaxy Digital.

Regulators may be tempted to do this because futures are traded and operated by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, while the crypto market remains, in Gensler's words, a "Wild West" rife with "fraud, fraud and abuse."

Grayscale CEO Michael Sonnenshein said the SEC should approve both types of bitcoin ETFs at the same time and allow investors to choose. Allowing one but not the other would create an uneven playing field. Grayscale is currently trading 14% lower because of declining demand. If the SEC approves Bitcoin ETFs that are futures-based only, more investors are likely to move assets. This would push down Grayscale's price and hurt existing investors.

In any case, like most mutual funds, bitcoin futures ETFs will need to be registered under the Investment Companies Act 1940, which requires asset managers to disclose more information and comply with stricter rules. The physical Bitcoin ETF will not be taxed because it will be treated like a commodity and not a security.

Todd Rosenbluth, director at CFRA, said: "Futures prices usually track underlying assets, but there is always some slippage. The gap can be especially noticeable for a volatile asset like Bitcoin."

Futures ETFs need to roll over their contracts at expiration, usually on a monthly basis. If futures are trading higher than the real-time price, funds will have to pay a premium to roll them over, which could reduce yields. They also offer additional protection as they require investors to deposit funds as cash as collateral. And unlike mutual funds, ETFs cannot come close to new money if it gets too big. If bitcoin futures become volatile and many investors want to exit at the same time, liquidity problems could arise. The exchange may even stop trading to slow down panic selling. This means that investors in a futures ETF may not get out on time.





Andrey Shevchenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for September 14, 2021

Crypto Industry news:
Bitcoin miners have officially produced their 700,000th block, an important milestone for the network.

It took Bitcoin less than two years to produce 100,000 consecutive blocks after a 600,000 block was excavated on October 18, 2019. At that time, the price of BTC was less than $ 8,000. Today, one Bitcoin is worth over $ 45,500.

On average, new blocks are generated every ten minutes, although this time is influenced by mining difficulty, which is adjusted approximately every two weeks. This is a process of changing how difficult it is for miners to mine digital assets. At the current rate of block production, the last Bitcoin will be mined around 2140.

Twitter celebrated the milestone by citing the late Hal Finney, one of Bitcoin's early pioneers and prime candidate for being Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator of the technology. Finney died of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) in 2014.

Bitcoin has been programmed as a self-regulating market with a hard-coded monetary policy that doesn't depend on any third parties. Unlike, for example, the US Federal Reserve, which can freely influence the size and rate of growth of the money supply, Bitcoin maintains a hard limit on the supply and cannot be created without the huge energy input of miners.

Although Bitcoin has been under attack for its environmental impact, the network's power consumption is a small fraction of the total energy consumption. Efforts to integrate clean energy into the mining process have largely proved successful, with some estimates saying that US Bitcoin mining is powered by more than 50% renewable energy.


Technical Market Outlook
The BTC/USD pair has failed to rally above the level of $46,317, so the road towards $50k is still closed after the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made again. Moreover, the yesterday's Doji candlestick did not help bears or bulls to make a decision either. The bears have control over the market and are pushing the price lower towards the lows of September 7th located at $43,159. Any violation of this level would be a bearish signal. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $44,219. Only a sustained breakout above the level of $46,719 would change the short-term outlook to more neutral or bullish.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $59,391
WR2 - $56,198
WR1 - $49,661

Weekly Pivot - $46,351
WS1 - $40,043
WS2 - $36,782
WS3 - $30,164


Trading Outlook:
According to the long-term charts the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. The next mid-term target is seen at the level of $59,506. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021