Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for August 27, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
According to market experts, the US Securities and Exchange Commission is likely to approve the Bitcoin ETF by the end of October. ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart released a note to investors suggesting that the sudden withdrawal of the ETF proposal on Ethereum last week by VanEck and ProShares could trigger SEC approval of the Bitcoin ETF.

"The swift withdrawal by VanEck and ProShares of the ETF proposals on Ethereum is a good sign for a potential Bitcoin ETF, given that the SEC has allowed these applications to remain active. The launch could be as early as October and we believe the SEC should give the go-ahead to several applications at once in order to avoid granting an advantage to the first player "- analysts wrote.

Balchunas noted that ETF ProShares is one of the proposals most likely to be approved by the US securities regulator.

The latest Bitcoin ETF prediction comes shortly after asset managers VanEck and ProShares suddenly withdrew their Ethereum-based ETF applications just two days after filing with the SEC. However, many Bitcoin ETF applications remain active, with asset managers such as Valkyrie, ProShares, Invesco, and VanEck filing Bitcoin futures applications earlier this year.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has broken out of the main ascending channel and the new local low was made at the level of $46,502. It might be the beginning of the corrective cycle down to the levels of $46,371, $45,710 or $45,043, however there are some Pin Bars made already, so the bulls are marking their presence on the market. The momentum is weak and negative already, which might help the bears might push the price lower anyway.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $57,092
WR2 - $53,247
WR1 - $51,171

Weekly Pivot - $47,506
WS1 - $45,262
WS2 - $41,681
WS3 - $39,415


Trading Outlook:
The bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. The next mid-term target is seen at the level of $50,000. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for August 27, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Facebook, which is currently finalizing the development of its proprietary Novi cryptocurrency wallet, may soon support NFT tokens as well.

David Marcus, head of Facebook Financial and co-creator of the Facebook-initiated cryptocurrency Diem, said the company is "definitely looking" for possible ways to engage in the NFT industry.

Facebook is considering many options for introducing the NFT feature as it is in "really good position to do so," Marcus said in a TV interview.

Marcus also said Novi's crypto wallet is now ready, but Facebook has decided to hold its launch until the company gets regulatory approval to start with Di. Facebook began working on the digital currency two years ago, initially under the name Libra. The social media giant would still consider launching Novi without Diem "as a last resort," Marcus said, but believes both are necessary for Diem to succeed.

Facebook published a white paper for its then-Libra in June 2019, originally planning to link the digital currency to several fiat currencies, including the US dollar, Euro, Japanese yen, British pound and Singapore dollar. Due to global regulatory pressure, the Libra Association has since been struggling to launch its stablecoin, eventually renaming the Diem Association and redesigning the digital currency to be pegged solely to the US dollar and subject to US government regulation.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has broken below the technical support seen at the level of $3,122 and made a new local low at the level of $3,059. Since then the price had been seen consolidating around that level, so the corrective decline might be completed. The immediate technical support is located at the level of $2,977, so the bears still have a room to push the prices lower, especially the momentum is weak and negative already.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $3,720
WR2 - $3,519
WR1 - $3,345

Weekly Pivot - $3,142
WS1 - $2,951
WS2 - $2,757
WS3 - $2,565


Trading Outlook:
Ethereum have started the next wave up and violated the long-term target at the level of $3,550. The next long-term target for ETH is seen at the level of $4,394. Nevertheless, in order to continue the long-term up trend, the price can not break below the technical support at the level of $2,695. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key long-term technical support for bulls.







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin is stuck between two trends and there is no clear direction



Bitcoin is stuck between two trends, it still can't get out of the $50,000 zone. Now digital gold is trading at a price of $46,700. In just two days, bitcoin lost more than $3,000. However, many crypto enthusiasts and analysts continue to blindly believe the bullish trend, the introduction of investors and positive news from various countries. Now there will no longer be a reverse sharp global drop in bitcoin and a rollback to the June low of $28,000.

However, there are fewer and fewer prerequisites for growth, which is an important factor. Many analysts believe that the bullish momentum of bitcoin is at the same level with the indicators at the beginning of the year. Investors currently use only long or bullish positions, which is fundamentally different from the first quarter of 2021, where all the same traders used aggressive long positions.

This is a tangible and colossal difference, which was provoked by the fact that in the first quarter of the year no one could think about a correction. After bitcoin surpassed the $20,000 milestone, everyone believed in the constant, unprecedented, high-speed growth of the number one cryptocurrency.

Now you can observe different levels, which again need to be overcome and consolidated.

Back in May, it was possible to observe a huge influx of bitcoin, namely, more than 135,000 bitcoins were recorded on the exchange - sales dominated the market. However, more than about two months ago, there was an outflow of more than 100,000 bitcoins. In August, it was possible to observe such a picture that the net exchange flow was recorded at the level of about 2.4 million bitcoins, which is about 12% of the total supply volume.

This may mean that both hoarding and accumulating bitcoins, as well as making a profit, were absolutely the same in the balance. Now there is an incomprehensible picture with bitcoin and the inability to determine and fix which trend is currently prevailing in the market, which can be explained by the division of opinions in the crypto market.

There are many bearish and bullish traders, some of them will have to take a winning position, and some will have to retreat, and only after that it will be possible to observe some shifts. The bears are eager to dominate, but the bulls are still holding the situation in their iron gloves and trying not to miss the tit in their hands.





Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Litecoin vulnerable to deeper drop

Litecoin dropped as the price of Bitcoin declined to the seller's territory. LTC/USD seems to be quite heavy in the short term after failing to stay above broken upside obstacles. As you already know from my previous analysis, when BTC/USD drops, the altcoins could drop as well. You can use this correlation when trading on cryptocurrencies.

Litecoin lost around 5.86% in the last 24 hours and it is expected to resume its drop. Also, the volumes dropped by 3.37% in the last 24H, while its market cap decreased by 5.87%.


LTC/USD UNDER MASSIVE PRESSURE


LTC/USD is pressuring the downside 50% Fibonacci line of the Ascending Pitchfork. If the price drops and closes below this line, it will signal a deeper drop. Technically, its failure to stabilize above the Ascending Pitchfork's median line (ML) in the last attempt signaled that Litecoin could develop a corrective phase.

It has retested the weekly pivot point (179.44) signaling that it could extend its decline. The 38.2% (158.15) retracement level is seen as the first potential downside target. Also, the lower median line of the Ascending Pitchfork could be used as a downside target.


FORECAST
Closing and stabilizing under the weekly S1 (169.09) and below the 50% Fibonacci line is seen as a potential bearish opportunity. The lower median line (LML) is seen as an important downside target.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

XRPUSD vulnerable to a move below $1.

XRPUSD after its inability to break above $1.34 and the top at $1.30, price is making lower lows and lower highs. Short-term trend is bearish and price is vulnerable to a move towards $1.02 where we find important Fibonacci support area. Breaking below $1 could lead to a move even lower towards the next major Fibonacci retracement level at $0.83.



As can be seen in the Daily chart above, price is making a corrective pull back relative to the upward move from $0.50 to $1.34. Our most probable scenario is for price to make a corrective pull back between $1 and $0.82 and form a higher low before continuing its move higher. A pull back towards $0.82 would be an ideal level for buying. We are bullish XRPUSD as long as price is above $0.50.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin futures open interest is encouraging

Bitcoin has not yet managed to hold the 48,178.13 level, although yesterday's daily candle closed with a slight increase above this horizontal. But today's breakdown is likely to be true. Although, until the candlestick is closed, little hope remains.

Well, even if the price of the main cryptocurrency returns to the 44,807.24 - 48,178.13 corridor, this may well turn out to be a step back before continuing to grow.

At the very least, open interest in bitcoin futures has rebounded to May levels, which is encouraging for a massive bullish breakout above $50,000.

The total outstanding futures contracts on Deribit reached $1.37 billion on Monday. This is the highest level since May 27. In parallel, according to data from Stack Funds, the difference between the spot rate of bitcoin and the price of its futures contract has widened, returning to June levels.

This management company sees the recovery in open interest as a sign that investors are re-entering the bitcoin market, but are taking a "riskier approach." In addition, according to research director Lennard Neo, "contango trading" in bitcoin futures reflects a bias towards bullish interests.

"More importantly, we are seeing a stable trend in demand versus supply, which allows us to believe that the markets will receive good support, at least in the near future, with further consolidation before surpassing the $50,000 mark."

Once again, we hear confirmation that the current consolidation is not so bad. At least from a technical point of view, the scenario of growth to the historical maximum will not lose its relevance until the price of BTC/USD falls below the level of 41,980.24.

Let's go back to bitcoin futures. In June, their price collapsed under the weight of a sell-off in the spot market. The catalysts for the fall were the Chinese repression against miners. Leveraged futures traders closed their long positions due to margin requirements, and many were kicked out of the market through automatic liquidation mechanisms on exchanges. This narrowed the gap between bitcoin futures prices and spot prices, raising concerns about a negative futures contract premium (backwardation).

At the time, Deribit had a three-month (annualized) base of about 2.5%. But in ideal "contango" conditions, futures should trade at a premium of 5-15% on an annualized basis, in line with the stablecoin lending rate.

But by August, the miner situation had stabilized, and Glassnode reports began to show that miners began to re-accumulate tokens. This partially explains why, after dropping to $29,000, bitcoin surged to $50,000. In parallel, there is a surge in open interest in futures, which shows a renewed buying interest in BTC among both investors and traders.

What to do with this fact amid conflicting opinions about whether bitcoin has a chance to grow? The trader, however, as always, trade what he sees, not what he knows. And here technical analysis will help us. And if (most likely) bitcoin finally returns under the level of 48,178.13, it is worth looking at its possible reversal upward from the horizontal at 44,807.24.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin moves to key value level

Bitcoin is moving to a key value level, but it only causes a surge of panic among investors. A 200-day moving average, which is of great importance, may have an influence on bitcoin's move or rise in the near future. But before grasping the technical input, we should mention that more institutional and big retail players turn to cryptocurrency and start to put their trust in it. It is a sign of a bullish signal for the market, although in mid-term period.

I have already referred to the companies investing in cryptocurrencies. Now billionaires take an interest in it. According to the latest speculations, Simon Nixon is thinking of increasing his investments in cryptocurrency as he hopes to make a huge profit. More wealthy people make use of digital assets now, and Mr. Nixon does not probably want to be behind. His family office Seek Capital is trying to raise cryptocurrency investments because of its value in future. Adam Proctor, his fund manager, has recently stated this fact. According to Proctor, they have launched a campaign to seek a cryptocurrency expert.



This year, the family offices' interest in investing is only gathering pace, while the volatility stays at a record level. Apparently, more rich people are ready to take a risk and compete in this race as the market seems too profitable. Bitcoin, for example, after its biggest drop this May, has risen more than 50% since mid-July. Other cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum, Cardano ADA and Dogecoin, have also surged thanks to signs of mass acceptance.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has recently conducted a survey and found that nearly half of family offices plan to add digital currencies to their more stable investments in stocks and bonds. This interest is primarily due to the ability to hedge against the risks of high inflation and prolonged low interest rates.

Last November, Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas Pliego announced that he had invested some of his liquidity in bitcoins. Michael Novogratz and Christiana Angermeier are the founders of the Cryptology Asset Group fund, which in June pledged to allocate $100 million to invest in cryptocurrencies over the next two years.

It is rather curious how much money these family offices have at their disposal. According to the Campden Wealth study, the family office assets worldwide were estimated at $6 trillion in 2019.

As far as the technical analysis of bitcoin is concerned, its rebound to the $45,900 level will play a key role in the trading instrument's further short-term direction of the. It is exactly the point a 200-day moving average goes, which has a big impact on institutional investors. Breaking this level, BTC will push to the minimum of $42,500, and then it is very close to $37,300. It is possible to discuss a new upward wave of bitcoin after its breaking the resistance limit of $50,400 with the subsequent renewal of $54,400 and $58,000.

As far as the technical analysis of ethereum is concerned, we stay in a rigid corridor, which is a good prerequisite for the trading instrument's further rise due to position accumulation. A break in $3,300 would surely turn ETH to the highs of -$3,600 and $3,890. The nearest major support level is seen around $3,000. Its break will fall the trading instrument to the lows of $2,700 and $2,440.






Jakub Novak
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin made a reversal but failed to implement a bullish momentum: what will happen to cryptocurrency in the near future

Bitcoin continues to reap the rewards of a failed attempt to consolidate above $51,500. On August 25, the cryptocurrency declined amid strong market pressure but found a local support zone at $47,000. After that, bitcoin tried to implement the bullish momentum, but the coin failed to overcome the difficult sell zone above $49,000 and began to decline again. As of 11:00 UTC, BTC is trading in the $46,800 region and is trying to jump to the $48,000 support level, but everything indicates that bitcoin will finally fail the reversal to $51,000.

It is worth noting the reasons why bitcoin failed to test the $51,500. First of all, it is worth highlighting the clear discrepancy between the average indicators of Daily Active Addresses and Active Addresses (24h) and the real cost of bitcoin. At the same time, the total amount of transactions in the cryptocurrency network remained at an all-time low, which was an alarming signal and provoked numerous bearish divergences on the technical indicators of the cryptocurrency. In addition, the 30-day MVRV is in the +10% area, which indicates the likelihood of massive profit-taking, which provides the bears with additional opportunities to push the price down. In addition, do not forget that as of August 25, bitcoin is still in a bearish trend, and therefore any corrective structures will worsen as there is no sufficient reason for growth. It was the combination of these factors that prevented BTC from making a local bullish reversal and re-entering $51,500.



To start a full-fledged bull market, bitcoin needs to successfully consolidate above $51,000, but right now the coin is much closer to a downward movement. The asset worsened its position, failing to realize the bullish impulse of buyers, who pushed the price away from $47,000. Therefore, the coin continues to fluctuate along the upward support line. However, as of 11:00 UTC, the technical indicators on the 4-hour BTC chart indicate a bearish breakout of this line. The RSI is at 40 and the MACD is in the red. Stochastic has dipped beyond the zero mark and signals a bearish divergence.



On the daily chart, bitcoin continues to show clear weakening and preconditions for a downward movement. If today, August 26, the coin breaks the upward support line, then the bears will try to push the price to the key support zone in the current range of the local bullish trend of $42,500. At the same time, one should not discount powerful buyers who are already able to buy back the fall in cryptocurrency. In addition, the $42,000- $44,000 area is an area of concentration of longs and buy options, which also increases the chances of a rebound and a subsequent attempt to implement a bullish momentum. However, in the event of a bearish breakout and worsening of the current correction, the first strong support zone will be the $45,500 mark.



The correction will likely end in the $42,000-$44,000 range, where the powerful buyer levels the bearish pressure. Despite the weak on-chain indicators, the market is set for growth, and therefore both large and small investors will take advantage of the favorable moment and enter the asset thanks to the current correction. The news background has finally returned to normal and the cryptocurrency market is again receiving a sufficient amount of investment from large companies. BTC's main "client" MicroStrategy invested another $177 million in the asset, which also pushed off $47,000.

However, two things can spoil the life of bitcoin. First, a bearish breakdown of the upward support line will slow down the movement of the cryptocurrency to $51,000 and may provoke the emergence of additional corrective structures and pressure zones. The second factor which can negatively affect the BTC/USDT quotes is the suspicious activity of a narrow circle of large cryptocurrency holders. More than $12 billion in BTC was recently transferred to the crypto exchange, which could provoke a "pump" and a subsequent painful fall. A similar situation happened today, August 26, when it became known that an unknown whale transferred more than 23,000 BTC to Huobi. It is not yet clear how dangerous such manipulations are for individual coins, but soon the entire market will experience the results of huge coin transfers.





Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for August 26,.2021 - Breakout of the bracket market in the background

Technical analysis:



BTC has been downside as I expected. There is the breakout of the bracket market for the downside, which is sign for further drop.


Trading recommendation:
Watch for selling opportunities on the rallies with the downside targets at $44,100.

Stochastic oscillator is showing overbought condition and fresh bear cross, which is another sign for the further downside movement.





Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for August 26, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
According to Scamwatch data, investment fraud in Australia cost investors over $ 50.5 million in the first six months of 2021, and crypto fraud contributed more than 50% of losses.

As reported by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC), Scamwatch figures show a 53.4% increase in reports of investment fraud, with a value of more than $ 101 million by the end of this year.

Based on 4,763 reports received in 2021 alone, ACCC vice president Delia Rickard concluded that 2,240 complaints were related to cryptocurrency fraud and were mainly attributed to Bitcoin.

Rickard said scammers lure investors into using fake trading platforms with celebrity endorsements that promise high profitability. Trading platforms initially allow investors to withdraw some of their profits using the assets of other victims to ultimately stop careless investors from withdrawing their investments: "If something sounds too good to be true, it probably is" - she added.

Bitcoin investment fraud in Australia has already surpassed $ 18.5 million, a sharp increase of 44% compared to total losses of nearly $ 12.8 million in 2020.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has broken below the technical support seen at the level of $3,122 and made a new local low at the level of $3,059 (at the time of writing the article). The immediate technical support is located at the level of $2,977, so the bears have a room to push the prices lower, especially the momentum is weak and negative already.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $3,720
WR2 - $3,519
WR1 - $3,345

Weekly Pivot - $3,142
WS1 - $2,951
WS2 - $2,757
WS3 - $2,565


Trading Outlook:
Ethereum have started the next wave up and violated the long-term target at the level of $3,550. The next long-term target for ETH is seen at the level of $4,394. Nevertheless, in order to continue the long-term up trend, the price can not break below the technical support at the level of $2,695. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key long-term technical support for bulls.







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021