Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for August 26, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Japanese financial regulator, the Financial Services Agency (FSA), has started discussions about imposing stricter cryptocurrency laws to provide better protection for Japanese investors.

In July, the FSA established a dedicated section as well as a panel of financial experts to help the government oversee digital and decentralized finance. The agency will also be responsible for tracking cryptocurrency changes and central bank digital currency initiatives, reported Jiji Press.

The financial regulator intends to replace and impose new cryptocurrency laws by mid-2022. With the new regulations, the FSA hopes to bring stability to the crypto market while offering no harm to development and innovation to the ecosystem.

The FSA revised a similar law in 2019 that required cryptocurrency exchanges in Japan to implement new user asset protection features. The decision was linked to the hack of Bitpoint, the Japanese crypto exchange that suffered a loss of $ 32 million.

Earlier this month, the FSA announced that it would adopt the Financial Action Task Force's Travel Rule by 2022, which will require all cryptocurrency service providers to share transaction data. The Travel Rule was introduced in 2019 as a preventive measure against cryptocurrency money laundering and terrorist financing.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has broken out of the main channel and the new local low was made at the level of $46,502 (at the time of writing the analysis). It might be the beginning of the corrective cycle down to the levels of $46,371, $45,710 or $45,043. The momentum is weak and negative already, so the bears might push the price lower.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $57,092
WR2 - $53,247
WR1 - $51,171

Weekly Pivot - $47,506
WS1 - $45,262
WS2 - $41,681
WS3 - $39,415


Trading Outlook:
The bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. The next mid-term target is seen at the level of $50,000. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Anonymous crypto whale transfers $12,000 in BTC and ETH


Over the past six months, the share of institutional investors in the crypto market has increased significantly. The interest of large companies in coins makes them more balanced and predictable. However, market players are still getting used to the presence of institutional investors. For example, analysts fear that the current growth of ETH is completely unrelated to the activities of retail investors as it was triggered by large companies. The situation is similar to BTC. According to data, more than 50% of all transactions in the bitcoin network are made from addresses with at least 10,000 BTC on their wallets. Naturally, such a large influx of institutional investors boosts the development of the crypto market, but at the same time, there are also those who can use their influence for rapid, and extremely harmful to the market, enrichment.

For instance, not long ago, more than $12 billion in BTC and ETH was sent to the cryptocurrency exchange from one or more addresses. There are suspicions that the same whale could produce colossal injections. It is likely that such investments are designed to make a quick profit by investing funds before the start of market growth and locking in profits at a certain moment. Analysts at Santiment note that such actions of whales in the past led to a dump. Before that, there was a wild rally in the market. In the short term, this boosts demand in the market and causes a strong increase in prices and commissions. Notably, at the same time, the trading volumes practically do not change. It triggered the creation of a gap between the real value of the asset and the current exchange rates. Due to this discrepancy, bears may increase pressure on the quotes and extend the correction.



This is exactly what happened with the quotes of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin sank by more than $2,000 shortly after the huge transfer. At the same time, ether collapsed to the support level of $3,100. In addition to the formation of a discrepancy, such manipulations put additional pressure on cryptocurrency quotes. Having received the profit triggered by the pump, institutional investors begin to lock in profits, which is bearish for crypto assets. As for other negative consequences, we can highlight the increased volatility of the asset, as well as the correction and losses caused by the closure of positions on cryptocurrency platforms.



The main problem of such manipulations is their sudden effect on the market and the lack of real grounds for growth. Institutional investors, unlike retail traders, do not need to join forces in order to cause a price boom and earn money. In the current situation, everything went well. Despite the attempt to pump and dump, BTC and ETH are showing signs of a recovery. However, the main danger of such operations on the market lies in the time of their implementation. The current market sentiment did not allow the BTC price to fall below the upward support level. However, under less favorable circumstances and more active participation of bears, it may lead to the breakout of the important support level and a strong trend reversal. The same applies to ETH, which could break through $3,100 and drop even lower. Crypto traders would have incurred big losses.



The crypto market has just begun to adapt to such manipulations of institutional investors. Experts are sure that their influence will only strengthen in the near future. At the moment, despite the decline in the number of retail investors of BTC and ETH, the volatility of these assets will not decrease. This is precisely due to the fact that large market players with an even bigger influence will continue to affect the quotes of coins and use the market sentiment to their advantage. As for the transfer of $12 billion to ETH and BTC, it is just a vivid confirmation of this. Meanwhile, the share of institutional investors in bitcoin continues to grow. Recently, MicroStrategy acquired another 3,000 bitcoins worth $177 million. The total number of whales exceeded 50%.





Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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US Treasury will not interpret the concept of "broker" to all participants of the crypto market



We have repeatedly said that the last round of bitcoin's growth looks unreasonable. The cryptocurrency has grown by almost $21,000 in total over the past few weeks, despite the fact that there were no good reasons and fundamental factors for this. We also said that perhaps this strengthening of bitcoin is due to a certain rush of traders and investors. In the United States, an "infrastructure package" worth $3.5 trillion may be adopted in the coming months, and US lawmakers assign one of the sources of financing for infrastructure investments to the cryptocurrency segment. Simply put, tax rates will be introduced for many market participants. This will especially apply to transactions over $10,000. Since bitcoin currently costs about $50,000 per coin, it is easy to guess that the absolute majority of transactions will be over $10,000. Thus, many investors and traders may not like the fact that their operations will immediately come to the attention of the Tax Administration, and they will have to pay tax on transactions. That is why in recent months, bitcoin has been bought by everyone in a row. However, yesterday it became known that the US Treasury Department is not going to interpret the concept of "broker" to all participants of the cryptocurrency industry. This, firstly, means that miners or developers will not have to provide any reporting. Secondly, it means that the tax legislation will not be as tough as it was originally thought. Of course, taxes will still be collected from transactions, but many players of the cryptocurrency market will be exempted from them. In general, at this point, bitcoin clearly should have felt relieved, however, it hadn't felt any tension in the last few weeks. On the contrary, it has been actively growing in price and now, the markets may begin to get rid of bitcoin. This often happens when an asset grows due to certain expectations or fears, and then, when these expectations are met and the asset can continue moving in the same direction, a reverse reaction begins. In general, we still believe that Bitcoin will tend to fall. There is still an ascending trend line on the 4-hour timeframe, which will help determine when the current bullish trend will come to an end. At the moment, the bitcoin course is located very close to it.



Technically, bitcoin continues to be in an upward trend on the 4-hour timeframe, but for the second time it has returned to the level of $47,500 and to the trend line. Thus, in the next hour or two, these obstacles can be overcome, which will allow us to expect a further drop in bitcoin with the first target of $43,852. In the case of another rebound from $47,500, bitcoin may try to make another round of upward movement, but even from a purely technical point of view, a downward correction is already overdue.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Are there any altcoins that can show growth, even if Bitcoin falls?



Bitcoin still does not manage to break through a very important level of $ 50,000, consolidate, and continue its upward trend. Now, the question arises: which altcoins can grow even if Bitcoin continues to fall and lose its positions?

Neither bears nor bulls are currently the dominant forces in the crypto market – some coins have returned to the red zone, while other coins still remain in the green zone. Yesterday, Bitcoin tested the level of $ 50,500, thereby showing its new summer record.

It was possible to observe that a temporary optimism began on the crypto market, sales volumes became much higher than the average level, and the price slowly began to decline.

One can pay attention to ripple. If the news on the market continues to remain positive or at least neutral and there are no negative calls from different countries, then the price of this altcoin may return to a new August high of about $ 1.4.

Currently, Ripple is trading at $ 1.16. It was seen yesterday that institutional investors worked very hard to break through the resistance level of $ 1.3, but the price failed to test this level and consolidate. By the evening, the price of Ripple returned to the support level of $ 1.2.

Binance Coin could also continue the upward trend even if Bitcoin undergoes a downward movement. Binance Coin failed to consolidate at the $ 500 level and resulted in a false breakout. Now, Binance is trading at $ 483.

The most important thing for the bulls is not to give the bears the leadership so that they do not consolidate below this price, since a rebound and a decline will occur up to the level of $ 455. However, according to analysts' forecasts, the altcoin has everything necessary to test the $ 500 level again.





Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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BITCOIN - technical analysis of the current situation



After reaching the first target target for the breakthrough of the daily cloud (49,230), bitcoin failed to reach and hit the target completely, therefore, growth targets 51,163 (the final level of the weekly dead cross of Ichimoku) and 51,461 (100% completion of the daily target at the breakdown of the cloud) have retained its meaning and location. With a correctional decline, support was tested in the area of 46,960-47,142, where the daily short-term trend and the weekly medium-term trend are currently located. Forming a rebound from the supports that were reached will return bitcoin to the resistance of 49,230, and its breakthrough will open the way to 51,163-51,461. The players' failure to rise will lead to the continuation and development of the downward correction. Its closest reference points are now the support of the daily cross, located at 45,377 (Fibo Kijun) - 43,815 (Kijun).



On lower time intervals, bearish traders managed to capture key levels during the daily correction, which now form resistances and protect bearish interests. Now key H1 levels are joining forces in the area of 48,910-48,557 (central Pivot level + weekly long-term trend). A breakthrough and consolidating higher will allow the bulls to form a rebound from the met supports of the higher halves and continue the growth. The next upward reference points within the day will be the resistance of the classic Pivot levels (49,483 - 50,719 - 51,645). The players' failure to rise and maintain the role of resistances by the key levels of the lower halves after the current retest can contribute to restoring bearish activity and performance. For them, the most important thing in the current situation is to overcome the supports of the higher halves at 46,960-47,142.

In the technical analysis of the situation, the following are used:

higher timeframes - Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) + Fibo Kijun levels

H1 - Pivot Points (classic) + Moving Average 120 (weekly long-term trend)





Evangelos Poulakis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Bitcoin upside trend confirmed again

Bitcoin rallied at the time of writing and it seems determined to hit the psychological level of 50,000 soon. The cryptocurrency was into a corrective phase in the short term. I mentioned yesterday that BTC/USD could register only a temporary decline before jumping higher again.

Bitcoin is up 1.91% in the last 24h and 7.31% in the last 7 days. BTC/USD has raised by 4.23% from today's low of 47,100 to today's high of 49,094. Further growth should help the altcoins to increase as well.


BTC/USD BULLISH ENGULFING PATTERN


Bitcoin has dropped after jumping above the fifth warning line (wl5). It has come back to retest the uptrend line and now it seems poised to resume its growth. It has tested and retested the wl5 as well.

As you can see on the H4 chart, BTC/USD has printed only a false breakdown below the weekly pivot point (47,701.68). The bullish engulfing pattern printed earlier signals strong buyers.


FORECAST!
BTC/USD is bullish and it could approach and reach new highs as long as it stays above the uptrend line. A new higher high, a valid breakout through 50,562 could signal further growth towards the channel's upside line.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Bitcoin could still resume growth

After reaching the important mark of $50,000, bitcoin rolled back down. Consolidation at the support level of 48,178.13 looked good, until its breakdown was outlined today. It is still unclear whether it will be true or false. When returning to the 44,807.24 - 48,178.13 corridor, the price of BTC/USD may fall down to its lower border.

But looking at the chart, you can clearly see that there is no euphoria in the market. Volatility has slowed down, although bitcoin has moved into the important range of 41,980.24 - 64,883.36. The target near the all-time high remains relevant. But the term of its achievement, although we do not predict, will probably be delayed.

The fact is that retail investors do not yet show an active interest in the main cryptocurrency. Statistics from Google Trends show that bitcoin is not as popular as in January-February and in May. There is no euphoria in the market.

Meanwhile, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz notes that strong growth will likely occur in the fourth quarter.

And now the investor and well-known crypto advocate believes that the main cryptocurrency has been pushed up by news from large retailers. In recent weeks, it has become known that Walmart and Amazon are interested in the cryptocurrency space. They posted vacancies to find crypto engineers and heads of crypto assets departments. And while there were no explicit statements that companies are already ready to connect cryptocurrency transactions, Novogratz saw this as a clear sign that Amazon and Walmart are declaring their firm intention to be part of the cryptocurrency trend.

Further news from large companies that Visa has bought CryptoPunk NFT is confirmation that these global companies intend to make digital assets a significant part of their business.

Novogratz believes that much of the financial structure will be rebuilt on a blockchain basis, which is a vast prospect for digital currencies.

But the cryptocurrency cannot grow forever, and now it is likely to stabilize and begin to consolidate. But in the fourth quarter, bitcoin and other crypto assets, according to Novogratz, will resume growth.

Well, technically, this scenario is quite logical. The range 44,807.24 - 48,178.13 worked in the first half of August. Now, the consolidation is likely to continue higher, in the new corridor 48,178.13 - 52,000.18. Or the price will return to the previous one. If things go on like this, there are still one or two milestones on the way to the all-time high above $52,000 per coin.

But sideways and calm technical trades are not bad at all. Rather, on the contrary, they are very convenient for speculative traders for cautious trading with short runs. Or for a step-by-step safe recruitment of a position.






Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Trading Signal for BITCOIN for August 25 - 26, 2021: Sell below $ 49,200 (SMA 21)

The 4-hour chart shows that BITCOIN is trading under slight downward pressure, after having reached the psychological level of 50,000. Hence, we are observing a minor technical correction.

The 21 SMA located at 49,200 is exerting downward pressure, BTC has found strong support at 47,500. If you look at the chart, on August 13 BTC rebounded to the earlier highs of the year. That high has now become its immediate support.

The break of the 47,500 level would give BTC more bearish strength and push the price down to the levels of about 43,750. There is the 6/8 murray line that acts as strong support.

A pullback to the 49,200 zone as long as it remains below the 21 SMA will be a good selling opportunity with short-term targets towards 6/8 murray at 43,750.

The critical level if BTC breaks 50,000 is 51,600 as it represents 61.8% of the Fibonacci retracement. This level will be seen as a selling opportunity as it will confirm the continuation of the overall downtrend.

According to the chart, we can see the formation of a fractal which could also be the formation of the technical pattern called a head & shoulder with a neck line at 43,750. The price is likely to be in the process of forming the right shoulder.

The outlook will be bearish if this pattern is completed and if it is not invalidated. Hence, BTC could fall as low as 37,500.


Support and Resistance Levels for August 25 – 26, 2021
Resistance (3) 51,645
Resistance (2) 50,731
Resistance (1) 49,482

Support (1) 47,277
Support (2) 46,073
Support (3) 44,864







Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Bitcoin's short-term bullish trend remains supported.

Bitcoin pulled back towards $47,000 and touched the upward sloping red trend line. Price respected the trend line and is now bouncing higher around $48,300. Bitcoin trend remains bullish as long as price is making higher highs and higher lows.



Red line - support

Blue line - bearish divergence

Bitcoin has touched the upward sloping trend line three times so far and each time price bounced higher. This is happening again. Price action has confirmed that the red trend line is key support and breaking it will be a bearish sign. The RSI is warning us with the bearish divergence that a turn around is imminent. However so far price has not made any confirmed trend reversal. Breaking below $47,000 would be a bearish sign and would increase chances of a trend reversal in Bitcoin and a bigger pullback.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Bitcoin begins to gradually lose ground

Bitcoin is beginning to gradually lose ground after talks that the cryptocurrency has started to return to the exchange again and clearly not to strengthen the rate. In the futures market, positions worth $600 million have been liquidated over the past day, and the number of small addresses holding from 0.01 to 1 ETH and from 0.001 to 0.1 BTC has reached parity. All this suggests that the major players are not yet eager to return to the market, but mainly speculative traders are acting, but this affects the investor fear index and one can only guess what this will lead to.

But once again – there is no reason to panic, the main thing is how bitcoin will behave in the event of a decline to the 200-day moving average – that's where real connoisseurs of medium-term investment and crypto enthusiasts will show themselves. Experts also note an increase in the bitcoin network by only 15%, while the Ethereum network has shown a jump of 58% since the beginning of the year, which indicates the continued popularity of this altcoin among new players. Of course, the boom in NFT has contributed to this.



Before we talk about the technical picture of bitcoin and ether, I would like to say a few words about the grandiose plans of another company counting on the bitcoin ETF. Valkyrie Investments believes that it is their fund that is at the top of the list for approval by the Securities and Exchange Commission of the first bitcoin futures exchange-traded fund in the United States. The Nashville, Tennessee-based firm requested regulatory approval two months ago to create the fund. They are sure that they were among the first to do this, after the positive comments of the Securities and Exchange Commission on this matter.

According to Steven McClurg, chief investment officer at Valkyrie Investments, the application remained hidden for a long time, as it allows smaller players and companies to submit documents confidentially, without fear of copying their ideas by major players. However, it is worth noting that here we are talking about a futures background, and not about a physical bitcoin. Let me remind you that at the beginning of this summer, the new chairman of the SEC, Gary Gensler, said that the regulator may be more open to bitcoin ETFs if it is based on futures, and not on the cryptocurrency itself. Immediately after that, a number of large management companies, including Invesco, hurried to apply for this type of product. Even though futures contracts require larger margin collateral, it is expected that this product will also be in high demand among institutional investors. However, submitting the first application does not mean that Valkyrie Investments will be the first to be approved.

Recently, Gensler has raised the topic of ETF many times, which must comply with strict SEC rules for mutual funds. This is done in order to help provide investors with all the necessary protection. Most of the pending applications for ETFs were filed in accordance with the laws of the 1930s, which are not quite suitable for the current situation with the cryptocurrency market. Many cryptocurrency supporters have expressed concern about the bitcoin futures fund, which they say is unnecessarily complex. Some experts believe that the Securities and Exchange Commission is being overly cautious and that they should not act so harshly against the newly emerging cryptocurrency industry.



As for the technical picture of bitcoin, its return to the area of $47,800 is not something terrible but simply has a corrective character. But the decline to the next level in the area of $45,900 will have a key role for the further short-term direction of the trading instrument. There is a 200-day moving average, which has a great impact on institutional investors. A break in this range will push BTC to a minimum of $42,500, and then it will be close to $37,300. It will be possible to talk about a new upward wave of bitcoin after a real exit beyond the resistance of $50,400, followed by an update of $54,400 and $58,000.

As for the technical picture of the ether, we remain in a hard channel, which is a good prerequisite for further growth of the trading instrument due to the accumulation of positions. A break of $3,300 will surely send ETH to the highs of $3,600 and $3,890. The nearest major support level is seen in the area of $3,000. Its breakdown will collapse the trading instrument to the lows of $2,700 and $2,440.







Jakub Novak
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021