Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Institutional investors gain momentum by buying bitcoin

Bitcoin is growing steadily, consolidating above the 44,807.24 level. The main cryptocurrency is moving towards the resistance of 48,178.13, above which, based on Tuesday's review, it may become unstoppable.

Meanwhile, incoming data show that the recent announcement by SEC Chairman Gary Gensler on the regulation of the market has encouraged institutions, and they are actively increasing their positions in the cryptocurrency and are ready to expand in this market.

Neuberger Berman, a management company worth $402 billion, submitted a proposal to the SEC to place cryptocurrency futures for one of its funds - Neuberger Berman Commodity Strategy Fund's (the "Fund"). It will offer access to bitcoin and ether futures along with crypto ETFs to gain indirect access to funds.

The company said in a statement that the Neuberger Berman Commodity Strategy Fund will actively manage investments in cryptocurrency and digital assets through derivatives such as bitcoin futures and ether futures. Investments in cryptocurrency trusts and exchange-traded funds are also planned to gain indirect access to bitcoins.

Institutional giants have been leaning towards the crypto derivatives market since SEC chair Gary Gensler hinted that a derivative ETF has a better chance of approval than funds looking to hold physical bitcoins. Since then, four institutional giants have applied for a Bitcoin ETF strategy that offers entry to the futures market. Among the latest sensational ones are VanEck together with Invesco.

Meanwhile, charts from data analytics provider Glassnode show long-term holders are buying back Bitcoin's plunge. The number of coins they own has recovered to levels last seen in 2020.

A graph of the total number of bitcoins in long-term investors' accounts to the same high level as last year, when the main cryptocurrency was worth $13,000. It's worth noting that this curve declined by January 21, when bitcoin began to rally above $20,000. And after the fall in May, the chart began to grow again.

According to another chart, large investors continue to accumulate bitcoins, replenishing them with cold storage wallets.

This optimism speaks to the long-term growth prospects. But the short-term picture remains at the mercy of technical fluctuations. The dynamics within the wide range of 41,980.24 - 64,883.36 is likely to remain at the mercy of speculators.

Now, the BTC/USD trading range remains between the levels of 44,807.24 - 48,178.13. If big players continue to buy back the fall and the price confidently consolidates above $48,000 per coin, Bitcoin may return to its all-time high.

One cannot but mention the fact that the market reacted with restraint to the vote on the infrastructure bill on Tuesday. I assume that the attention of investors has shifted to the issues of industry regulation.

Gary Gensler's comments during the quarterly report on Tuesday also mentioned cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, citing the prospect of creating regulatory norms for cryptocurrency as a factor of uncertainty.

In summary, it is worth remembering that unpredictability has not disappeared from the market, despite the current optimism. It remains for traders to focus on what they see on the chart, and not on what they expect to happen. The price, as Charles Dow said, includes everything. And even those factors that elude the eyes of analysts.






Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaFintech Group © 2007-2021

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Ethereum: Correction may begin soon

The successful London hard fork allowed Ethereum to rise above $3,000 for the first time since mid-May. Altcoin can rightfully be considered the main cryptocurrency in the second quarter of 2021. This indirectly confirms the statement of the Coinbase platform, according to which, in Q2, ETH trading volumes accounted for 26% of the total market share, while Bitcoin only 24%. This is the first time in history that a major altcoin has surpassed BTC in this indicator. As of 14:00 UTC, the asset continues to grow in value and is quoted at $3,245. However, several fundamental reasons could prevent the cryptocurrency from setting a new historical record.

The main reason for concern is the too sharp rise in the main altcoin. It was triggered by the success of Bitcoin and the impending London update. The impulsive growth of ETH/USDT quotes has caused the emergence of two factors that can become an obstacle on the way to historical highs. The first thing I want to say is the on-chain activity of Ethereum. The number of unique addresses, transaction volumes, and total activity on the ETH network does not match the current value of the asset. In other words, the sharp rise in the altcoin is due to the hype around the London update, which has multiplied the speculative audience of the cryptocurrency. As of August 11, the number of unique addresses in contact with the asset network remains the same and even acquires a downward trend. Soon, the ether will get close to an important mark, and its unsuccessful breakdown can reveal ETH's on-chain problems.





The second problem arising from a sharp rise in the price of ether may be massive profit taking. Since ETH has grown by 28.5% in just a week, it's easy to guess that many players remained in a good plus. This is also evidenced by the MVRV indicator on the 30-day chart. The average profit of all addresses that bought ether during this time period is over 26%. This is an extremely high indicator for a cryptocurrency with such a capitalization in such a narrow period of time. Medium-term players can likely do one of two things: sell the asset after a successful period, then put pressure on the ETH/USDT quotes, or take profit. In the second scenario, the market will experience a local correction and a retest for the strength of the support levels at $3,050 and $2,960.

At the same time, it is impossible to exclude the possibility of the continuation of the bullish movement for some time. If the current volumes and hype are enough for the market, then Ethereum may prolong the upward movement. However, the overall situation will remain uncertain. The cryptocurrency has every chance of catching up and recovering key indicators. In this case, the coin will get off with a local correction. If this does not happen, then a combination of negative factors can aggravate the correction of the altcoin to the main support zone in the $2,700 region.

As of 14:30 UTC, the coin is quoted at $3,256 and gains a positive upward momentum of +1%. At the same time, the daily trading volumes remain at an average level, at around $30 billion. On the daily chart, the technical indicators of the altcoin indicate the continuation of the bullish movement and the overcoming of the nearest difficult levels. At a shorter distance, signs of weakening are visible, but how local and important they are will be shown by the mark at which the ether will end the trading day. If ETH manages to close above $3,200, then tomorrow we can safely storm $3,000. However, a breakdown of $3,200 could provoke a local correction and postpone the Napoleonic plans of the cryptocurrency.







Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
InstaFintech Group © 2007-2021

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Trading signal for Ethereum for August 11 - 12, 2021: Ascending Wedge



While consolidating above the psychological level of $3,000, Ethereum (ETH/USD) is facing a zone of strong resistance located at the 7/8 Murray line around 34,437.

On the chart, we can see the formation of the Ascending Wedge technical pattern. A break above its upper edge could give the momentum to Ethereum to the resistance zone of $3,437.

On the contrary, a break below the technical pattern and consolidation below 6/8 of Murray and below the SMA of 21 will be considered a sell signal with the target at $2,812. If the bearish pressure persists, it will push the price to the key support at $2,500.

As long as it remains above the 2/8 Murray line and the 21 SMA, the outlook will remain bullish for ETH. The price may continue to climb to the level of $3,500 in the near term and reach the psychological level of $4,000.

The Eagle indicator has reached overbought levels. It suggests that consolidation or correction is possible. The first sign of weakness will be a breakout and a close below $3,000.


Support and Resistance Levels for August 11 - 12, 2021
Resistance (3) 3,446
Resistance (2) 3.338
Resistance (1) 3,296

Support (1) 3,136
Support (2) 3,004
Support (3) 2,840




Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaFintech Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin approaches first target of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

Bitcoin is trading above $46,000 and is approaching our first target of $47,885 where we find the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire decline from its all time highs to $29,000.



Red line - resistance (broken)

Bitcoin's last bullish signal was when price broke above the red trend line resistance and the 38% Fibonacci retracement. So far price is making higher highs and higher lows. Short-term trend is bullish. Resistance is at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. At this retracement level we usually see trend reversal. A reversal from this level is justified. Bulls need to be cautious.






Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaFintech Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin resistance levels continue to be breached

Bitcoin increased after ending its temporary and minor decline. It stands at 46,297.12 level and seems to be determined to hit new highs. Technically, the cryptocurrency has managed to break above a dynamic resistance signaling strong buyers in the short term.

BTC/USD is located right below strong resistance levels. We'll have to wait for a fresh trading opportunity as right now we don't have anything really good. It's risky to buy it below the immediate upside obstacles.

The bias is bullish despite a temporary decline. A potential drop may help bulls to catch a new leg higher.


BTC/USD TAGETING NEW HIGHS


Bitcoin has managed to jump above the fourth warning line (wl4) of a former descending pitchfork. The R1 (47,048.58) and the upside line are seen as upside targets. Personally, I would have like to see a temporary decline along the warning line (wl4) to test and retest it before jumping higher.

A minor consolidation, sideways movement, followed by a new higher high may announce an upside continuation. The bias is bullish as long as it stays above the psychological level of 43,000.


FORECAST
The warning line (wl4) retest, a false breakout, followed by a new higher high could validate more gains.

Also, jumping and stabilizing above the weekly R1 (47048) may signal further growth towards the psychological level of 50,000.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert
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Japan is ready to move towards the development of the cryptocurrency industry

According to the Japanese regulator, the country needs to develop more convenient access for investing in cryptocurrencies, as well as conduct explanatory conversations with the population about the risks of this area. Commissioner of the Financial Services Agency Junichi Nakajima noted in an interview that Japan is currently using bitcoin and other altcoins more for speculation and investment than as a fast and cheap method of settlement. New challenges are emerging from the wider proliferation of decentralized finance firms known as DeFi, he said. "We need to think carefully about whether we need to make it easier for the general public to invest in crypto assets," said Nakajima, 58, who became the commissioner of the Financial Services Agency last month.

Nakajima believes that, unlike stocks, cryptocurrency has no underlying assets and therefore is subject to strong price fluctuations. This is one of the reasons the Japanese regulator does not allow cryptocurrency investment funds, which are considered an easy way for the public to access this asset class.



Unlike the US, where investors now have a variety of ways to invest in a burgeoning asset class, Japan is still severely constrained by comparison. According to recent reports, the Japanese FSA has set up a research group of external experts that will prepare a report in the coming months and consider regulatory options for DeFi-related companies. Nakajima also noted that any investor can contact the FSA for clarification of the risks that may be assigned to him when investing in the cryptocurrency market. It is worth noting that the new head of the FSA previously participated in the development of Japan's first regulatory framework for cryptocurrency assets, including requirements for registration of exchanges. After the massive theft of coins and the hacking of the Tokyo exchange Coincheck Inc. in 2018, the requirements in the country have tightened. The main focus is now on customer protection and guarantee from deposits. Nakajima noted that the current regulatory framework for crypto exchanges is effective in protecting customers and fighting money laundering, but many of the 31 listed exchanges are struggling financially.

Let me remind you that the head of the US SEC Gary Gensler recently spoke about stricter regulation of the cryptocurrency sphere, and in particular of cryptocurrency exchanges. "Regulation of cryptocurrency exchanges is perhaps the easiest way for governments to quickly deal with the shadow trade of digital tokens. However, a new way of investing through decentralized platforms with the help of DeFi is already causing problems," Gensler said in a recent interview.



Meanwhile, the growth of bitcoin and other altcoins continues. According to the latest data, the outflow of bitcoins from centralized exchanges reached November indicators - this may indicate a decrease in potential pressure on the cryptocurrency rate and contribute to its further strengthening. As for the technical picture of bitcoin, buyers need to break above the resistance of $46,700. Only this will allow them to gain the upper hand over the 200-day moving average and continue the growth of bitcoin to the highs of $52,000 and $58,000. If the bulls fail to take the above level, a second instant sale to the levels of $41,100, $36,700, and $33,300 is not excluded. But don't underestimate the cunning of the market. There were similar attempts to return the bull market in January-February 2018, after the largest bitcoin sell-off, and all these "bull markets" were engaged only in delaying new "onlookers" who wanted to earn extra money quickly, after which the largest drains took place. History will likely repeat itself this time as well, as everything points to just that.





Jakub Novak
Analytical expert
InstaFintech Group © 2007-2021

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Can Bitcoin hit $ 100,000?



Bitcoin recently bounced more than 50% from recent lows, so analysts say there may be deep corrections in the market soon. Many predict that it will trade at $ 20,000 amid a slew of negative headlines, after hitting record highs.

But currently, BTC is still gaining and is near another monthly high, continuing the rally that has been going on for four consecutive weeks. And looking at it closely, this is the fastest 21-day gain since February.



CoinShares Director Meltem Demirors said investors clearly view the recent regulatory scrutiny as something positive since it removes much of the confusion and uncertainty. This demonstrates that the crypto community is no longer an esoteric corner of finance.

So, even if China took a number of steps to restrict the mining of cryptocurrency and US refocused their attention on digital assets, demand on the market is still high.

In fact, Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone said there is a possibility that Bitcoin will hit $ 100,000.

Tom Lee from Fundstrat said the same, estimating that the cryptocurrency will trade around $ 100,000 by the end of 2021. He explained that if Bitcoin is above the 200 MA, then investors should open buy positions.



So far, BTC is trading above $ 46,000 despite potential tax reporting requirements. The proposed change in cryptocurrency reporting rules in the Congressional infrastructure bill was blocked in the Senate on Monday, so the wording on the legislation remained the same.

And even if there was a slight decrease on Tuesday, Kristin Smith of the Blockchain Association said she was surprised by the coin's advancement amid negotiations on the infrastructure bill.

But CIBC CIO David Donabedian said it was not a surprise because driving factors are dynamics and cash flows, as well as a small share of the overall attitude to risk and risk aversion in the markets.





Andrey Shevchenko
Analytical expert
InstaFintech Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for August 11, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
The president and CEO of AMC Entertainment, Adam Aron, revealed that the American cinema giant intends to start accepting bitcoin payments for movie screenings by 2022.

Pay with bitcoin for a movie ticket

Speaking during a teleconference on August 9 on the company's results for the second quarter, AMC President and CEO Adam Aron revealed that by the end of 2021 the cinema chain intends to prepare the infrastructure to accept BTC payments for tickets purchased online.

While the details of the BTC adoption plan are fairly sparse for now, Aron has highlighted strong demand for cryptocurrency-based cinema purchases from the company's customers.

AMC's Q2 results showed a significant improvement over the previous year ($ 444 million in revenues versus $ 18.9 million in Q2 2020 revenues). Net losses also fell from $ 561 million or $ 5.38 per share to $ 349 million or $ 0.71 per share year-on-year.

Along with the adoption of BTC payments, AMC also announced plans to open more than a dozen locations in the United States, Europe and the Middle East this year.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has been consolidating the recent gains around the level of $46,691 after the successful breakout above the supply zone located between the levels of $41,794 - $43,159. Now both of this levels will act as a technical support for bulls. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $46,991, which is a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last, big wave down started in April 2021. The immediate technical support is seen at the level of $45,043, the key short-term technical support is located at $42,704. The strong and positive momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook for BTC.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $55,418
WR2 - $50,074
WR1 - $47,529

Weekly Pivot - $42,313
WS1 - $39,834
WS2 - $34,360
WS3 - $31,560


Trading Outlook:
The bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. The next mid-term target is seen at the level of $47,000. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaFintech Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for August 11, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
The new commissioner of the Japanese Financial Services Agency (FSA), Junichi Nakajima, believes the country needs to think carefully before making Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies more accessible to the general public.

Nakajima believes that crypto assets like Bitcoin have the potential to benefit the public as a fast and cheap way to transfer money, he said in a press interview. However, most crypto assets are now used for speculation and investment.

Therefore, the Japanese regulator believes that careful consideration is needed before making it easier for the public to invest in crypto assets. Nakajima said the high volatility of the cryptocurrency markets due to a lack of underlying assets is the main reason the Japanese regulator does not allow cryptocurrency mutual funds.

Japan stepped up its regulatory efforts after the infamous hacking attack on the Tokyo crypto exchange Coincheck, which resulted in a loss of NEM 523 million worth approximately $ 534 million.

The country has since become a difficult market for registered crypto exchanges, Nakajima admitted. The current regulatory framework for cryptocurrency exchanges effectively protects clients and meets anti-money laundering requirements. However, the business situation for most of the registered crypto exchanges "is rather difficult," added Nakajima.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has made a new higher high at the level of $3,250 (at the time of writing the article), but the move up is overstretched and the market conditions are extremely overbought. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $3,498 and $3,552, but traders should expect some kind of pull-back first. The immediate technical support is seen at the level of $3,122 and $3,000. Strong and positive momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook for ETH.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $4,076
WR2 - $3,643
WR1 - $3,334

Weekly Pivot - $2,889
WS1 - $2,597
WS2 - $2,147
WS3 - $1,835


Trading Outlook:
Ethereum have started the next wave up and violated the long-term target at the level of $3,000. The next long-term target for ETH is seen at the level of $4,394. Nevertheless, in order to continue the long-term up trend, the price can not break below the technical support at the level of $2,695. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key long-term technical support for bulls.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaFintech Group © 2007-2021

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Even sky is not the limit: Bitcoin is ready for second stage of long bull market



Bitcoin prices are trading at $46,000, the highest price of the first cryptocurrency since May. The growth of digital gold was more than 30%, if compared with last month. For three months, bitcoin could not overcome the $45,000 bar.

Bitcoin whales continue to store cryptocurrency and withdraw it to cold wallets, Elon Musk, Jack Dorsey, and Michael Saylor continue to support the cryptocurrency and give it the green light. This could not but affect such a sharp jump in bitcoin. Many analysts are very optimistic about the further growth of bitcoin, and the second stage of a long bull market may soon begin, which may lead bitcoin to repeat historical highs when it was worth $65,000.

Here is what Kraken crypto exchange analyst Dan Held said: "This growth resembles the correlation in the price of bitcoin in 2013, when the number one crypto asset first fell from historical highs down, and then in the same year it made a reverse movement and repeated its phenomenal growth and reached the second peak."

It is still too early to talk about the future consequences of the US infrastructure bill, which can tax all crypto owners. Concerns about this law, which may tighten the storage of cryptocurrencies and introduce taxes for holders in the United States, could not stop the growth of digital gold, sow panic and weaken investor sentiment, but, on the contrary, helped to become a catalyst for the growth of the number one crypto asset.

According to many analysts, bitcoin will soon test the level of $48,000 and overcome the bar of $50,000. If it succeeds, then the next real target will be approximately at the level of $57,000, and if bitcoin manages to test this level and consolidate on it, then it may well begin to rush to new historical highs and cost up to $90,000 in the fall or winter of this year.

The maximum target that stands for bitcoin, if everything goes according to the drawn plan for the number one cryptocurrency, is $175,000.




Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert
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