Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Day X for the cryptocurrency market: how will bitcoin react?

The US Senate vote on the infrastructure bill will take place today, August 10. The issue of an amendment regarding the concept of "broker", on which the influence of the law on the cryptocurrency market depends, has not been resolved. A volatile market reaction to the adoption of the final version of the document is not excluded.

Meanwhile, on-chain analysts continue to monitor the activity of major market participants and look for signals about the further direction of the main cryptocurrency.

Ki Young Ju, CEO and co-founder of online analytics data provider CryptoQuant, shared a graph showing the sharp surge in the bitcoin exchange's whale ratio in August.

On his Twitter account, he wrote that this ratio has reached a whopping 90% - the highest level since February 2020.

A similar ratio was observed until March 13, 2020, when Black Thursday occurred - the price collapsed, and bitcoin fell under a massive sale. It then lost more than 50 percent of its value in one day, briefly dropping below $4,000.

What does the mentioned ratio of all exchange whales show? It analyzes the relative size of the ten largest BTC inflows as well as the total inflows. The rise in the number of this indicator means that the pressure from the crypto-whales is growing.

Ki Young Ju urges traders to be careful not to use too much leverage for their long bitcoin positions.

But there are other data as well. The analytical company Santiment notes that the number of bitcoins stored on cryptocurrency exchanges has decreased. Moreover, it reached its lowest level in 26 months.

Santiment experts remind that the low balance of bitcoins on exchanges usually prevents large sell-offs. Therefore, the 26-month low of the stock exchange offering for the main cryptocurrency should be interpreted as a sign of confidence for bitcoin investors.

Let's move on to the chart and analyze the technical growth probability. Bitcoin has been strengthening for six straight trading sessions, resulting in an almost recoilless break of strong resistance at 41,980.24. The next local level at 44,807.24 (red dotted line) was also broken yesterday, but today's attempt to gain a foothold above it looks uncertain.

And if today's daily candle turns out to be bearish and even closes below the level of 44,807.24, a stronger pullback can be expected.

The level of 41,980.24 can still be confirmed as a support, and the likelihood of temporary trading in the sideways range of 41,980.24 - 44,807.24 is also possible.

Local growth remains a more optimistic scenario, if the consolidation above the level of 44,807.24 still occurs. The target for growth will be located at the mirror level of 48,178.13.

Interestingly, popular crypto trader Pentoshi notes that the main cryptocurrency will not stop after it can pass the $48,000 level. He claims that this is the last point before "bitcoin becomes unstoppable."

Now both the technical picture and the on-chain data are warning crypto traders to exercise caution. Voting on the infrastructure bill also looms over the market as a factor of uncertainty.

Against this background, if you open long positions now, then be very careful. The current situation could be the beginning of an advantageous position to buy BTC/USD with a good risk/reward ratio. Or it will turn into a trap, but there is a stop loss to protect against this risk.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaFintech Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin hits 3-month high, but shows signs of weakening: how deep can we fall

The second full-fledged week of recovery of the quotes of the first cryptocurrency and the entire market began on Monday. During this time, bitcoin managed to successfully pass the difficult zone of $41,500-$45,000 and form a powerful support zone at $45,300. Today, August 10, BTC made a rapid breakthrough, went beyond the range, and set a three-month record at $46,200. However, immediately after reaching this indicator, the cryptocurrency rolled back to the support zone of $45,300 and began to weaken.

As of 14:00 UTC, the asset is quoted at $45,400. At the same time, the downward dynamics of the price movement is gaining momentum, which reached the indicator of -1.5%. The cryptocurrency also showed a 1.5% drop in 24 hours. Today, bitcoin touched a round mark, which acts as a local pressure boundary. The main resistance line is higher at $46,900, and its upper limit is near $47,700. After the pullback to the support zone, the asset showed signals for growth, but no single bullish line was formed. Over the next few hours, the cryptocurrency systematically rolled back to the support zone at $45,300, where it tried to consolidate the price and test the round border again.

However, the bitcoin charts still show signals for weakening and a possible breakdown of the support zone around $45,500. The four-hour chart of the indicator shows the prerequisites for a reversal and further growth, but the RSI and MACD show the formation of a bearish divergence in the near future. If buyers fail to win back the current offer, aggravated by a local correction, then we are waiting for a breakdown of the support line at $45,500. In this case, the fall will likely worsen to the main lines, where supports are formed at $39,900 and $37,700. The last frontier proved to be a guarantor of the stability of bitcoin since the coin bounced off this zone three times. Therefore, taking into account the current positive situation in the market, this should become a kind of bottom of the current bullish rally.



In addition, a clear bullish impulse trend is forming on the one-hour chart. Bitcoin could likely jump above $46,000 out of the blue thanks to successful consolidation and accumulated volumes. But the current technical indicators speak only of a short-term impulse that can be absorbed or not worked out at all. In this case, the movement to the upper border of the range and the exit to $50,000 will be a matter of the next few days. However, taking into account the current dynamics of the drop in the bitcoin quotes, further movement below $45,000 looks most likely.








Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
InstaFintech Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading Signal for Bitcoin (BTC/USD) for August 10 - 11, 2021: Sell below $46,500



Bitcoin skyrocketed from $29,000 on July 20 to $46,800 on August 10. This rise represents a 55% increase for a few days of trading.

BTC has stopped its bullish rally just below the +2/8 Murray line, after having consolidated with about 7 4-hour candles. It is showing a sign of exhaustion. There is no bearish signal yet, but if bitcoin consolidates below the 21 SMA located at 44,382, the downward pressure will be triggered.

A pullback is likely. However, as long as it remains above the 21 SMA or makes a technical bounce above this zone, the bullish force will continue to prevail.

In the case of a bullish climb, the resistance levels are located at $46,875 and the psychological level at $50,000. As long as it remains below the 61.8% Fibonacci ($51,096), any attempt to approach this level will only be a technical correction for a continuation of the main bearish move.

On the contrary, if bitcoin consolidates below the SMA of 21 located at 44,382 in 4-hour charts, it will be an opportunity to sell with targets up to the psychological level of 40,000 and the level of the 6/8 line of Murray located at 40,625.

We expect BTC to move within a price range between 40,000 support zone and 46,800 resistance. The Eagle indicator has a bullish signal, so BTC could continue to rally after a brief setback.

In addition, a potential increase in selling pressure that pushes BTC below 37,500 monthly pivot zone and the 200 EMA level will negatively affect the bullish rally and could enable a new medium-bearish sequence with targets at the low of 29,000.


Support and Resistance Levels for August 10 - 11, 2021
Resistance (3) 49,985
Resistance (2) 48,532
Resistance (1) 46,854

Support (1) 43,253
Support (2) 41,127
Support (3) 38,892





Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaFintech Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

XRPUSD approaches our target.

As we mentioned in previous posts, XRPUSD has broken upwards the bullish flag pattern and has provided us with a bullish signal. Price is moving higher and is approaching our target of $0.9450.

Attachment 8255

Red lines -bullish flag pattern

Blue lines - Fibonacci extension targets

XRPUSD is making higher highs and higher lows. Price has now support at $0.69 and as long as price is above this level, we expect price to continue higher. Our first target is at $0.9450 and the second target at $1.10. Staying above $0.65-$0.75 area is key for the longer-term trend. So far XRPUSD has made a strong upward move to nearly $2 and has pulled back forming a higher low. The reversal from that low could be the start of a new up trend that will eventually bring price to new all time highs.



Attachment 8256
Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaFintech Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Richard Shelby blocked amendments on crypto industry in the US Senate

A bipartisan group of senators was able to reach a compromise on the issue of making changes to the bill aimed at tax collections from cryptocurrency companies, which included everyone who is at least somehow connected with this type of asset. But when voting in the Senate on these amendments, there were dissenters. The consent of all 100 senators was required. Despite the compromise reached between Republicans, Democrats, and the Treasury Department, the amendment did not receive unanimous support. As it became known, 87-year-old Senator Richard Shelby opposed such an initiative. He refused to support any amendments if his proposal on defense spending was not considered.



A fairly large number of comments from the cryptocurrency community have already been made on this issue. One of its leaders, Mike Novogratz, noted that it is time for the Senate to consider a bill that would expel all people over 80 years old from it. The world is changing too fast for a meeting of 70-80-year-old retirees to make all the important decisions. "We've known for a long time that we didn't have enough resources and connections," said Kristin Smith, executive director of the Blockchain Association, adding that her group for the protection of interests in the field of cryptocurrencies and blockchain last year had a budget that was about 1% of the budget of the American Bankers Association. "The crypto industry has realized that they need to invest in Washington," Smith said.

Thus, the proposed amendments, which gave an exact explanation of who is a cryptocurrency broker, did not pass in the Senate and a new bill for $500 billion will be adopted without them, which creates quite big problems for the crypto community. Of course, we can talk about the fact that such tax changes and clarifications will be adopted later, but it will be much more difficult to do this than now, and it is not known how long it will take.

Now, cryptocurrency lobbyists, who were actually caught off guard by the antics of one of the senators during the vote, are sure to face a number of problems in the legislative battle of the nascent industry. The fact that it was not possible to achieve a change in the rules of tax reporting on working with cryptocurrencies will now bring quite a lot of problems to market participants who will only be engaged in going into the shadows – they have nothing else to do since many simply do not have access to the required reporting of tax authorities.

Cryptocurrency supporters also say that the defeat of the Senate shows the need for more organization and money, as the growing industry is increasingly attracting the attention of not only investors but also politicians. Now, the defenders of the cryptocurrency will have the opportunity to change the situation in the House of Representatives only at the autumn session in September of this year, but now a number of procedural problems will create much greater difficulties in this direction. But these are just the flowers: then the lobbying battle will go to the Internal Revenue Service, or in other words, to the US Tax Service, since it is them who writes the rules for subsequent implementation into law, and this process can take years.



But there are also positive aspects. Now it is clear exactly who in the Senate is interested in this topic and supports its promotion, and who else can be lured to the side of the digital economy. Crypto-lobbyists should step up their efforts to avoid similar mistakes in the future.

Strangely, bitcoin and other altcoins did not react to such a failure in any way, remaining trading near their highs in recent months. Bitcoin has already hit the $46,000 level and rolled back down a little. But do not underestimate the cunning of the market. There were similar attempts to return the bull market in January-February 2018, after the largest sale of bitcoin, and all these "bull markets" were engaged only in delaying new "onlookers" who were sorry to earn money quickly, after which the largest drains occurred. It is likely that history will also repeat itself this time, since everything points to this. If in the near future, buyers do not gain a foothold above the 200-day moving average, which just passes around $44,800, then it is better to wait with bitcoin purchases at the highs. A breakout and consolidation above the $46,700 level will provide excellent ground for further strengthening of the trading instrument in the area of the highs of $52,000 and $58,000. If the bulls fail to take the above level, a second instant sale to the levels of $41,100, $36,700, and $33,300 is not excluded.








Jakub Novak
Analytical expert
InstaFintech Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for August 10,.2021 - Key resistance at the price of $42.700 on the test

Technical Analysis:



BTC is testing key pivot resistance at the price of $47,000. I see potential for the downside rotation.


Trading recommendation:
Watch for selling opportunities around key pivot at $47,000 with the downside target at the price of $42,185.

Stochastic is showing bearish divergence and the overbought condition, which is another sign for the downside rotation....





Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaFintech Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Coinbase trades according to Bitcoin's weekend movements



Stocks of companies that run exchanges usually rise and fall depending on the popularity of what is traded on them. But Coinbase Global takes this correlation to a completely different level.

For the largest US crypto exchange, this means learning about Bitcoin, specifically its movement during the weekend, as such gives investors an idea of how the company may open on the Nasdaq index any Monday.

Take, for example, this weekend when Bitcoin is up about 7.5%. Coinbase shares almost perfectly matched this metric, gaining 8% during Monday's session.

This often happened in recent weeks, even on the second weekend of July, when BTC fell by 2%. The following Monday, Coinbase lost 2.4%. And when Bitcoin retreated 3% over the weekend after that, Coinbase slipped 2%.

Such a scenario does not necessarily occur every day or every weekend, but enough that Coinbase's correlation with Bitcoin is an indication of how far the two are moving in tandem.



"It's a very rough proxy, but I can understand why it would be a proxy," said BTIG analyst Mark Palmer. The situation is understandable because Bitcoin is traded 24/7 unlike most traditional assets.

Jerry Braakman, CIO at First American Trust, also said Coinbase correlates with Bitcoin and Ethereum because that is where most of crypto assets trade.

But Palmer says Coinbase's reliance on Bitcoin is declining, as the company continues to diversify its platform by adding other crypto assets. Bitcoin now accounts for roughly 44% of the exchange's transaction revenue last year, up from roughly 60% in 2019.





Andrey Shevchenko
Analytical expert
InstaFintech Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

The market fears the adoption of new legislation in the United States and buys bitcoin so as not to fall under its influence later



In our previous articles, we said that bitcoin may return to the level of $42,300, but the cryptocurrency has already exceeded this plan and reached the level of $46,500. On the one hand, there is nothing surprising in this. Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency that depends as much as possible on the mood of market participants. In other words, in order for bitcoin to grow, it is simply necessary that the majority of market participants believe in its ability to continue to become more expensive. And in order for this belief to be formed at a certain point in time, it does not even require any fundamental background, one or two statements by Elon Musk are quite enough. Thus, bitcoin is growing now and this should not surprise anyone, although we continue to consider the correction scenario to a greater extent. On the other hand, if you do not pay attention to the fundamental background or its absence, why do you need it at all? Still, I want to believe that there were some reasons for the growth of the first cryptocurrency in the world. We can assume that the miners who were repressed from China have already moved their equipment outside the country and started mining cryptocurrency again. That would increase the hashrate of the network and lead to an increase in the quotes of bitcoin. However, the current growth is still too strong for this reason. It is possible that the current growth of bitcoin is a trap for buyers at all. It can be recalled that when the bullish trends of 2013 and 2017 ended, bitcoin also repeatedly showed segments of fairly strong growth, which inevitably ended with a new fall. Thus, so far, we can say that everything is under control. Nevertheless, the higher bitcoin gets now, the more painful its new fall may be later. The United States may adopt new legislation from day to day, which will force almost every participant in the cryptocurrency market to report to the Tax Service and in most cases pay tax for almost every operation with cryptocurrency. From our point of view, this can greatly reduce the interest in bitcoin from American players. It seems that most of the cryptocurrency market is simply buying bitcoin now, when the new legislation has not yet been adopted and has not entered into force, so as not to fall under its action later.



Technically, bitcoin continues to be in an upward movement on the 4-hour timeframe, and the ascending trend line remains relevant. Despite the fact that we are preparing for a new fall of bitcoin, it should be recognized that it is the trend line that is now a key aspect in trading this cryptocurrency. As long as the price is located above it, it is the growth of quotes of bitcoin that is a priority. The nearest target is the level of $47,500.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaFintech Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for August 10, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
PayPal co-founder David Sacks recently warned that big tech companies and politicians are on the verge of creating a "no buy" list for controversial creators, platforms and companies. Cryptocurrency was invented in part to solve such problems.

While Sacks helped found PayPal as its COO and Product Manager, over the past year, he has begun outsourcing a number of platform restriction activities. Sacks reasonably explains why he is more than skeptical that these organizations are like regulators. Instead, it is clear to him that the ADL and the SPLC have become unscrupulous guerrilla political activists. He claims that "the definition of" hate group "is vague and ripe for abuse by those with a purpose. He further warned that harmless organizations such as religious freedom advocates and even electoral integrity activists are already falling into the trap of financial censorship.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has made a new higher high at the level of $3,200, but the move up is overstretched and the market conditions are extremely overbought. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $3,498 and $3,552, but traders should expect some kind of pull-back first. The immediate technical support is seen at the level of $2,914 and $2,861. Strong and positive momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook for ETH.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $4,076
WR2 - $3,643
WR1 - $3,334

Weekly Pivot - $2,889
WS1 - $2,597
WS2 - $2,147
WS3 - $1,835


Trading Outlook:
Ethereum have started the next wave up and violated the long-term target at the level of $3,000. The next long-term target for ETH is seen at the level of $4,394. Nevertheless, in order to continue the long-term up trend, the price can not break below the technical support at the level of $2,695. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key long-term technical support for bulls.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaFintech Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for August 10, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Cryptocurrency experts from the UK legal industry have announced the launch of Crypto Fraud and Asset Recovery (CFAAR), a network aimed at providing compensation for fraudulent activities related to cryptocurrencies.

The group is made up of a wide variety of professionals such as "Lawyers, Solicitors, Forensic Accountants and Asset Recovery Experts".

The launch of the CFAAR network is attributed to an increase in fraudulent activities related to theft, ICOs and ransomware attacks. With a unified approach from legal experts, the CFAAR team aims to "respond reliably and effectively" to crypto crimes and fraud, providing "the best possible means of redress".

The founding members of the UK cryptocurrency team are Asset Reality, Essex Court Chambers, Grant Thornton, Osborne Clarke, Rahman Ravelli, RPC, Stewarts and Twenty Essex.

While the network seeks more crypto experts input, she explained that she intends to be "the authoritative and independent voice in cryptocurrency-related judicial and regulatory reviews and consultations."


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has made a new higher high at the level of $46,691 after the successful breakout above the supply zone located between the levels of $41,794 - $43,159. Now both of this levels will act as a technical support for bulls. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $46,991, which is a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last, big wave down started in April 2021. The immediate technical support is seen at the level of $45,043, the key short-term technical support is located at $42,704. The strong and positive momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook for BTC.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $55,418
WR2 - $50,074
WR1 - $47,529

Weekly Pivot - $42,313
WS1 - $39,834
WS2 - $34,360
WS3 - $31,560


Trading Outlook:
The bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. The next mid-term target is seen at the level of $47,000. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaFintech Group © 2007-2021