Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

BTC. Broken Pitchfork trendline, more downside yet to come
18 September 2019

Bitcoin has been trading downwards since our last forecast exactly what I expected. BTC did test the level of $10,058 Anyway, the downward channel is in control and do expect more downside on the Bitcoin and potential test of $9,850.



Downward purple lines – Downward channel

Yellow rectangle – Support level and potential downward target

Falling purple line – Expected path

My advice is still to watch potential selling opportunities on the BTC due because the downward channel is still in control and new selling is expected. I found the breakout of the larger Pitchfork upward channel, which is another confirmation of the downward movement. Selling opportunities are preferable with the target at $9,850 and $9,600 and stop at $10,550. I do expect larger volatility due to FOMC meeting minutes today.




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 18 September 2019

Crypto Industry News:
American ACC (Army Contracting Command) from New Jersey has issued a pre-order notice for cryptocurrency investigation service providers.

According to ACC, an analytical solution in the field of cryptocurrency is sought for use by the U.S. Army Criminal Investigation Command (USACIDC) for use in criminal investigations and other missions. The notice states that the contractor must provide an online cloud service - independent of hardware or software - that can help law enforcement authorities identify and prosecute entities using cryptocurrencies for illegal purposes, such as fraud, extortion and money laundering.

The contractor should provide the source of the cryptocurrency transactions, offering the opportunity to analyze many cryptocurrencies from Bitcoin to other major cryptocurrencies. Other requirements include providing "real-time tracking of Bitcoin transactions and other cryptocurrency transactions", including service assignment and identification, as well as the ability to identify transaction patterns and interact with other entities.

In autumn 2018, the Diar publication revealed that US government agencies have tripled their investments in Blockchain intelligence companies this year. The vast majority of government contracts in 2018 were reportedly concluded with the New York analytical company Blockchain Chainalysis, which has since signed contracts with government agencies for a total amount of USD 5.3 million.


Technical Market Overview:
Another higher high has been made on the ETH/USD pair at the level of $214.24. All targets for the wave (3) has been hit, so now the market might start the corrective cycle of the wave (4). The momentum is still increasing as well, so the rally might continue even higher after the wave (4) is completed, just as Elliott Wave theory scenario proposed last week The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $202.70 and then at $186.70.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $212.96
WR2 - $200.24
WR1 - $196.12

Weekly Pivot - $184.92
WS1 - $179.10
WS2 - $168.22
WS3 - $163.07


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the lower wave degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $202.59 and $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 18 September 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The Dutch company Waste2Wear claims to have created the world's first collection of recycled fabrics made of oceanic plastics that can be traced using Blockchain.

The eco-friendly company is organizing an exhibition from 17 to 19 September in Paris at the international textile fair Premiere Vision.The collection was specially developed by Waste2Wear in response to customer demand for recycled materials used in fabrics to be traceable. The company announced the introduction of the beta version of its proprietary Blockchain system into the new collection on August 22.

Waste2Wear said that plastic waste must take a long journey from the ocean to become a finished textile product, which requires many step-by-step data records. By implementing Blockchain technology, the company intends to fully follow the fabric supply chain.

The plastics used to produce Waste2Wear oceanic fabrics were obtained from the water and coastal areas of a small island near Shanghai. In collaboration with local authorities, Waste2Wear has built a business model enabling local fishermen to earn money by recovering plastic from the ocean. According to Waste2Wear, fishermen collect over three tonnes of ocean waste every week.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair did not make any important move after the pairs have moved down out of the horizontal price range located between the levels of $10,211 - $10,381. So far the bulls have only managed to retrace 50% of the last move down in the wave (2) of a higher degree and the momentum is not increasing as well. The next target for them is seen at the level of $10,469 and it needs to be violated in impulsive fashion in order to continue the up move, otherwise, the whole Elliott Wave scenario will be changed and updated.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $11,232
WR2 - $10,847
WR1 - $10,552

Weekly Pivot - $10,174
WS1 - $9,851
WS2 - $9,477
WS3 - $9,160


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The wave 2 corrective cycles are about to be completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,231 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

BTC. Downward channel in control, selling opportunities are preferable
17 September 2019

Bitcoin is still trading in the sideways regime at the price of $10,200 with no clear direction. Anyway, the downward channel is in control and do expect more downside on the Bitcoin and potential test of $9,850.



Downward purple lines – Downward channel

Yellow rectangle – Support level and potential downward target

Falling purple line – Expected path

My advice is to watch potential selling opportunities on the BTC due because the downward channel is still in control and new selling is expected. I found the breakout of the larger Pitchfork upward channel, which is another confirmation of the downward movement. Selling opportunities are preferable with the target at $9,850 and stop at $10,550.



Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin: Fundamental causes of a bullish reversal (part 2)
17 September 2019

Five months ago, we predicted the approach of a bullish reversal, based on an analysis of the impasse in which the global financial system enters with leaps and bounds.

As time has shown, the main parameters of future changes are correctly predicted. Realizing the need for incentives, leading central banks have begun to lower rates but a new wave of quantitative expansion is being delayed. Government bond yields show no signs of recovery.



The task of stimulating consumer demand is exacerbating and it is now clear that cryptocurrencies will solve this problem.

It is noteworthy that the SEC has long been delaying the issue of the release of full-fledged financial instruments based on cryptocurrencies. If a year ago, the general mood among crypto-investors could be regarded as "well, decisions are about to be made," then in recent months the general position has been completely different. It turned into "when will you finally allow?"

Apparently, this time has come. In early September, SEC head Jay Clayton noted in an interview with CNBC that there were only two main problems to solve for ETF approval the safe storage of crypto assets and evidence of lack of price manipulation.

The storage problem is being removed from the agenda. On September 6, the Bakkt crypto platform launched its BTC secure storage service, while Bakkt is likely to become a monopolist in the market. The LedgerX platform announced preparations for the launch of bitcoin futures, but the CFTC did not give permission for such a project. Only Bakkt, only hardcore but why Bakkt?

The answer is obvious. Because Bakkt is a project of the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), a giant that owns 23 exchanges, including the world's largest New York stock exchange. The fact that Bakkt has finally launched a safe custody service indicates that the infrastructure for accepting institutional money is finally prepared, and the banking system is beginning to intercept cryptocurrency market control.

The answer is obvious. That is because Bakkt is a project of the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), a giant that owns 23 exchanges, including the world's largest New York stock exchange. The fact that Bakkt has finally launched a safe custody service indicates that the infrastructure for accepting institutional money is finally prepared and the banking system is beginning to intercept cryptocurrency market control.

As regards the issue of manipulation, a serious struggle is taking place here. Bulldogs mated under the carpet. We hear a growl and a squeal, but the details are hidden. A few months ago, it seemed that the first to launch a new global cryptocurrency on the market would be JPMorgan, a banking giant with a capitalization of $340 billion. But something went wrong with the Morgans as the details began to appear recently. The U.S. Department of Justice has accused top managers at JPMorgan Chase of manipulating the market, and more specifically, futures for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium on commodity exchanges in New York and Chicago. Did Morgan want too much? It is unlikely that we will ever find out the answer to this question. But now, it has been relegated to the background, while the project from Facebook has matured and is rapidly capturing popularity.

Libra representatives met with officials from 26 central banks in Basel, Switzerland yesterday, including the US Federal Reserve Bank and the Bank of England. The details of the meeting have not yet been disclosed, it is only known that Libra representatives had to answer a number of specific questions and disclose the scope and architecture of the created payment system.

On September 23, Bakkt launches Bitcoin futures trading with delivery obligations. Most likely, this data will become a starting point for a new wave of expansion as financial giants who have long and fruitfully worked in the ICE structure will be invited to the cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin is the first candidate for growth. Perhaps, its role is to perform the functions of "digital gold" for storing cryptocurrencies and a base for quoting altcoins.



If our assumptions are correct, then on September 23 a gateway for investments in bitcoin will open. Its capitalization as of September 17 is $185 billion, which is quite a bit relative to the amount of money concluded in traditional commodity or currency futures.

Growth can be rapid. The first resistance is 13,830 and the next will be 17,500. Bitcoin may move to the specified trading range in anticipation of the launch of Libra and Fed decisions that will lead to a further decline in bond yields.



Performed by Kuvat Raharjo
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Trading strategy for Bitcoin on September 17th. Bitcoin froze ahead of Fed meeting results

Bitcoin – 4H.


The most famous and popular cryptocurrency in the world is still prone to fall. In the last few days, quotes of the "cue ball" traded along with the correction level of 61.8% ($10256), showing no major changes in the value. However, the downward trend line still pushes Bitcoin down to the lower trend line, which together forms a "tapering triangle". To determine the cryptocurrency trend for the coming weeks, traders must withdraw quotes from the "triangle". Accordingly, as long as BTC is inside the "triangle", I expect a fall to the price level of $9400. When a close outside the "triangle" is executed, a new trading strategy will be considered. Bitcoin's goals for the coming days are indicated by crosses in the illustration.

In the meantime, the hash rate "cue ball" continues to grow before halving, scheduled for next year. The largest miners are afraid of reducing the remuneration for the extracted block twice, so they increase production capacity. Also, there is a strong influx of new miners (over the past three months, about 600,000), which also increases the total number of bitcoin hunters and increases the overall hash rate. I also note that the update of hash rate records did not affect the value of bitcoin.

A good present for speculators was made by the Kraken cryptocurrency exchange. Due to a software glitch caused by testing a new type of orders, some traders were able to buy bitcoin at a very low price, about $8000 per coin. And then, sell for $12000. It is noted that the exchange will not apply the cancellation of transactions and write off illegally obtained profits from the accounts of lucky traders.

Well, the Fed meeting remains on the agenda. Such an important and significant event cannot be overlooked by traders, the reaction of the cryptocurrency market will be in any case. I am inclined to the growth of bitcoin after the Fed meeting if it is decided to ease monetary policy. But at the same time, technical signals continue to speak in favor of the fall of the number 1 cryptocurrency.


Overall results:
In the last three trading days, Bitcoin is frankly resting. Cryptocurrency is still inclined to fall to the bottom line of the "triangle". At least until tomorrow's summing up of the Fed meeting, this mood in the cryptocurrency is likely to remain. What happens after the Fed meeting will depend on its results and Jerome Powell's speech.

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of July 17, 2019, and August 6, 2019.


Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
Bitcoin made a return to the upper area of the "triangle" and remains in the "flat". However, I recommend that you still consider sales with targets of $9788 (76.4% of Fibonacci), $9566 (38.2% of Fibonacci) and $9400 (the bottom line of the triangle). As a new signal, I recommend waiting for the rebound from the downward trend line (or 61.8% Fibonacci level) or bearish divergence.

I do not recommend buying bitcoin now, as the cryptocurrency remains in the "narrowing triangle", which implies a price reduction.




Performed by Samir Klishi
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 17 September 2019

Crypto Industry News:
India is observing the first signs of an expected brain drain as the government is considering stringent laws that criminalize domestic investment in cryptocurrencies. Today's press release measured industry sentiment while the proposed general ban - now still in the form of a legislative proposal - is awaiting a formal review process by lawmakers.

The draft ban on cryptocurrencies and the regulation on the official Digital Currency Act 2019 have proposed a 10-year prison sentence for anyone who 'extracts, generates, holds, sells, transfers, disposes of, or deals with cryptocurrencies.

The severity of the proposed penalty and the extreme position reflected in the document - regardless of whether and in what form it eventually becomes national law - is already prompting local cryptographic companies to take preventive measures to protect themselves.

"As a startup from India, we've always wanted to operate from India, but the latter complication made it difficult for domestic cryptographic exchanges to operate in India. So we are a company based in Estonia and no Indian law criminalizing cryptocurrencies will affect us," said Rahul Jain, an employee former Bitbns national stock exchange.

Meanwhile, Nischal Shetty, CEO and founder of the well-known WazirX Indian Stock Exchange, argued that the proposed bill could destroy the assets of over 5 million Indians who own "cryptographic assets worth thousands of crowns."

He added that the arbitrary decision to criminalize investments in crypto-assets would destabilize existing lawful businesses and make this country an unfortunate pioneer in its role as "the first major democracy that banned innovative technologies such as crypto."


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair has hit the next target for bulls located at the level of $196.61. The momentum is increasing as well, so the rally might continue even higher, just as Elliott Wave theory scenario proposed last week. The low for the wave Z of the wave 2 of the higher degree is in place at the level of $162.78 already, so now the market might continue with the impulsive wave 3 to the upside. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $202.47. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $186.70.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $212.96
WR2 - $200.24
WR1 - $196.12

Weekly Pivot - $184.92
WS1 - $179.10
WS2 - $168.22
WS3 - $163.07


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the lower wave degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $202.59 and $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 17 September 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The first cryptographic ATM in Venezuela was installed on September 10 in the city of San Antonio del Tachira, according to Coin ATM Radar, a website that makes it easy to search online for the nearest one.

Panda BTM installed a Bitcoin ATM in a small grocery store called Viajes e Inversiones HC. The machine supports cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash and DASH, as well as the official currency of Venezuela and Colombia.

There were also earlier attempts to install Bitomat in Venezuela. At the end of January, the cryptographic company Cryptobuyer announced the upcoming installation and testing of a new Bitcoin ATM in the city of Caracas. However, for unknown reasons, the ATM was never started.

Neighboring Columbia currently has the most crypto ATMs from all Latin American countries. This number is expected to increase thanks to the partnership between the global Bitcoin peer-to-peer market, Paxful, and Blockchain-based in Medellin, CoinLogiq, which will introduce 20 new cryptographic ATMs to Colombia.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair moved out of the horizontal price range located between the levels of $10,211 - $10,381 and the direction of the movement is to the downside. So far the bulls have only managed to retrace 50% of the last move down in the wave (2) of a higher degree and the momentum is not increasing as well. The next target for them is seen at the level of $10,469 and it needs to be violated in impulsive fashion in order to continue the up move, otherwise, the whole Elliott Wave scenario will be changed and updated.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $11,232
WR2 - $10,847
WR1 - $10,552

Weekly Pivot - $10,174
WS1 - $9,851
WS2 - $9,477
WS3 - $9,160


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The wave 2 corrective cycles are about to be completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,231 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

BTC. New momentum down on the MACD oscillator, watch for selling opportunities
17 September 2019

BTC did exactly what I expected in my previous forecast. BTC broke the upward trend line and did make new momentum low on the MACD oscillator, which is indication for new supply on the market.



Red horizontal line – Support level and first downward objective

Yellow rectangle – Recent swing low acting like resistance

Pink lower diagonal – Important support and second objective target

MACD oscillator is showing good new momentum low in the background and I do expect at least another down wave. Key support levels are seen at $9,870 and $9,355 and resistance levels at $10,180 and $10,450. Bulls need to be very cautious as there is strong downward momentum in the background and potential selling the rally type of feeling. As long as the BTC is trading below $10,500 there is a chance for more downside and potential test of $9,870.




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Trading strategy for Bitcoin on September 16th. What awaits bitcoin this week?

Bitcoin – 4H.


After quotes soared last week on news from the ECB, which lowered the deposit rate and announced the restart of the quantitative easing program, BTC showed surprisingly calm trading without sharp changes in value over the weekend. Both on Saturday and Sunday, the price moved along the correction level of 61.8% ($10256) and approached the upper trend line. I still expect that the cryptocurrency will fall to the lower trend line, that is, to the area of $9400. However, in any case, as long as the cryptocurrency does not leave the "tapering triangle", it is recommended to trade with the goals within it.

This week, the entire global trading community will be closely watching the Fed's actions. According to most traders, the Fed will go for a rate cut, the second in a row. Easing monetary policy may spur demand for bitcoin, but at the same time, it does not mean that the "cue ball" will rise in price in any case. I believe that it is possible to consider the growth this week, but you need to buy BTC, having technical signals at your disposal. And until the close of bitcoin quotes, there will be no such signals above the downward trend line. The situation is the same as the possible sales of the "cue ball". Now, I expect a decrease in the area of $9400, but new sales or increase in current sales will be possible only at the close under the "triangle".

Meanwhile, miners are increasing production capacity, this applies to both private miners and bitcoin mining companies. It is reported that manufacturers of mining equipment in the second quarter of 2019 could not meet the demand. Most likely, miners are in a hurry to get as many bitcoins as possible before halving, which will take place next year and will reduce the profit for the extracted block twice. Bitcoin, by the way, did not react to this news.


Overall results:
At the weekend, bitcoin "rested", but the information background this week is unlikely to retain the relaxed mood among crypto traders for a long time. There are no new signals of indicator and graphical analysis now, but I still expect the "cue ball" to fall to $9400, and purchases will be considered only above the downward trend line.

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of July 17, 2019, and August 6, 2019.


Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
Bitcoin made a return to the upper area of the "triangle" and went into the "flat". However, I recommend that you still consider sales with targets of $9788 (76.4% of Fibonacci), $9566 (38.2% of Fibonacci) and $9400 (the bottom line of the triangle). As a new signal, I recommend waiting for the rebound from the downward trend line or bearish divergence.

I do not recommend buying bitcoin right now, as the cryptocurrency remains in a narrowing triangle, which implies a decrease in the price.




Performed by Samir Klishi
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019