Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for August 9, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Singapore's monetary authority (MAS) has notified several digital payment service providers that they will be licensed to operate in the city-state. This move that came after the crypto exchange was licensed secures Singapore's status as an Asian crypto hub, industry observers say.

Singapore's central banking authority has informed digital payment service providers that it will license them to operate within its jurisdiction. MAS told "a few" of the 170 applicants that it was "prepared to license them for payment services" as long as measures are in place to meet the necessary requirements, the regulator confirmed in the South China Morning Post. So far, two applications have been rejected and 30 have been withdrawn due to non-compliance with anti-money laundering standards.

The news comes after the Australian cryptocurrency exchange Independent Reserve announced earlier this week that it had received "substantial approval" from Singapore's monetary authorities to be licensed by a regulated digital payment token service provider. The trading platform noted in a statement that it is one of the first VACs to obtain such approval in the city.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has made a new higher high at the level of $3,185 after the successful implementation of London Hard Fork over the weekend. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $3,498 and $3,552. The immediate technical support is seen at the level of $2,914 and $2,861. Strong and positive momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook for ETH.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $4,076
WR2 - $3,643
WR1 - $3,334

Weekly Pivot - $2,889
WS1 - $2,597
WS2 - $2,147
WS3 - $1,835


Trading Outlook:
Ethereum have started the next wave up and violated the long-term target at the level of $3,000. The next long-term target for ETH is seen at the level of $4,394. Nevertheless, in order to continue the long-term up trend, the price can not break below the technical support at the level of $2,695. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key long-term technical support for bulls.







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaFintech Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin has risen to $45,000 per coin! Is it time for it to go down?



Earlier, we said that it is possible for bitcoin to return to the level of $42,300, but this time, it exceeded the plan and eventually reached the level of $45,000. According to the results of the past day, bitcoin failed to gain a foothold above the resistance level of $43,852, so there are doubts that the cryptocurrency is able to continue its growth. Theoretically, bitcoin, like any other digital asset, can become more expensive as much as you want and with any fundamental background. This is because the basis of its growth or fall is simply the belief of investors in its growth or lack thereof. Thus, by and large, everything depends on whether the majority of market participants believe in bitcoin or not. However, we still try to link the current fundamental background with the movement of the first cryptocurrency, and not trade randomly.

The fundamental background remains negative. Apart from the words of support from Elon Musk, Jack Dorsey, and Cathie Wood, which were voiced a couple of weeks ago, there is no positive information for bitcoin. The "digital gold" could have risen so much due to the words of Elon Musk that not only he and Tesla own bitcoin, but also his other company SpaceX. However, from our point of view, it would be completely absurd if bitcoin became more expensive by $15,000 simply because another company of Musk bought a certain number of bitcoins. Thus, we remain committed to the correction scenario, which will continue for the next year or two. We believe that before a new bullish trend begins, the cryptocurrency should fall more strongly in price, and more time should pass since the end of the previous upward trend. Thus, we expect that the downward movement will begin in the coming days, and the breakdown of the upper border of the expanding side channel on the daily timeframe is false. However, at the same time, there is a very clear ascending trend line on the 4-hour timeframe, so it will be better to sell bitcoin when the price is fixed below it. It should also be noted that the debate regarding the new bill continues in the United States, according to which almost all participants in the cryptocurrency market will have to report to the US Tax Administration for each transaction and pay taxes. This bill has already been publicly criticized by Jack Dorsey and Elon Musk, but it is not yet known whether it will be adopted at all and when it will happen. We believe that the legislation on regulating the circulation of bitcoin will be tightened in the United States in any case. And this is negative news for BTC.



Technically, bitcoin is fixed above the expanding side channel on the daily timeframe. This suggests that the growth of quotes may continue, but we believe that this is a false breakdown. At the moment, the price has worked out the level of $43,852, but could not gain a foothold higher. Thus, before the price fixes above the level of $43,852, it is more likely that a new fall in bitcoin will begin. So far, bitcoin has an excellent chance of falling to the level of $40,700.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaFintech Group © 2007-2021

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Ethereum continues to gain traction after activating its 'London Hard Fork'

Ethereum is one step away from returning to the level of $ 2,900 and is also bypassing its competitor Bitcoin after upgrading its core network, which indicates a more limited altcoin supply. This week, the second-largest digital currency reached a two-month high and continues to rally around 280% over the year, leading against Bitcoin, which has so far gained 40% in the same period after declining from a record level of $ 65,000 in May this year. The software update of the Ethereum network indicates that it is well prepared for making further changes that will significantly reduce energy consumption. This was stated by the founder of the network Vitalik Buterin during a press conference. According to Buterin, the most significant change in the Ethereum blockchain that has come into force since 2015 shows that the network is quite ready for an even greater update to reduce energy consumption by 99%. The 'London hard fork' includes a major change in the form of reduced commissions, codenamed EIP 1559. It is expected that such changes will put upward pressure on Ethereum's price in the future. Buterin said in an interview with Bloomberg that 1559 is definitely the most important part of the London hard fork. The update is another proof that the Ethereum ecosystem can make significant changes at the right time, unlike other networks, bearing in mind a direct competitor – Bitcoin. According to the creator of the Ether, the transition to ETH 2.0 will be carried out through a merger and is expected by the beginning of 2022, but it may happen as early as the end of this year

Ethereum's technical picture:

After rising sharply to the area of $ 3,200, the specified altcoin has already got near the $ 2,900 level, which will most likely be tested soon. This is the area that is most problematic for Ethereum buyers. If buyers manage to protect this range, it will draw new players into the market who expect more attractive altcoin growth in the future. In this scenario, a direct path will open to the highs of $ 3280 and $ 3460. But if Ethereum returns below the $ 2900 level, this will not be surprising. The emphasis will shift to protecting the $ 2,450 level, so buyers will continue to focus on this range. A breakdown will bring the pressure back to the trading instrument. After that, the protection will have to be postponed to the lows of $2000 and $1900. The critical point passes at the low of $1750.



The fight for the values of the cryptocurrency market continues in the US Senate.

This weekend, the US Senate is preparing to vote on its $ 550 billion infrastructure bill, as Majority Leader Chuck Schumer's quick attempt to hold a vote on it on Thursday was hindered due to disagreements on cryptocurrency and other issues. It can be recalled that Senators Ron Weeden and Cynthia Lummis have come out in favor of exempting some market participants from paying tax fees. We are talking about miners who are engaged in bitcoin mining and network support, developers, validators, and other crypto industry participants who are engaged in activities not related to the exchange and storage of cryptocurrencies. Previously, all of them were classified as brokers, which are subject to very serious requirements and obligations to comply with the new legislation. This decision was met with serious criticism in the crypto community, and with such, it caused controversy in the Senate. The senators stated that a more detailed classification of the crypto community participants is needed since some of them simply cannot meet the new legislative requirements by definition. Currently, the vote has been postponed until Saturday, and until that time, it is necessary to change the provision of the bill concerning the reporting requirements for transactions with cryptocurrency for tax collection.

The cryptocurrency industry has said that the bill's original version unfairly targets them and has a too wide coverage. Now, the Senate has two versions of the bill at once, in the second amendment of which new requirements in the field of tax reporting will be applied to Proof-of-Stake validators and protocol developers. The White House has already expressed support for the second version of the amendments, which contains the necessary changes to reduce the requirements for several participants in the cryptocurrency community, as well as to reduce the payment of taxes on the crypto market.

As for the technical picture of Bitcoin, it returned to the resistance of $ 41,100 again, which returns the interest of the bulls, who have been relying on the breakdown of this range for a long time. The cryptocurrency will only sharply grow to the $ 46,700 area and then to a strong $ 52,000 level if it really consolidates above the level of $ 41,100.





Jakub Novak
Analytical expert
InstaFintech Group © 2007-2021

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Trading Signal for BITCOIN for August 09 - 10, 2021: Sell Below $45,300



On daily charts, Bitcoin has reached the 200 EMA level around 45,153, this is the highest level for BTC in more than 2 months.

Bitcoin is facing strong resistance - the 200-day Exponential Moving Average. After BTC fell and consolidated below this EMA on May 19, it has been trading under heavy downward pressure and reached the lowest in the zone of 29,000.

Now, the key to keep in mind for a possible trend reversal is to wait for consolidation above the pivot point of 45,000, where the +1/8 Murray line and the 200 EMA converge.

A sharp breakout and a consolidation above $ 45,000 could give the bullish momentum to Fibonacci 61.8%, located at 51.096. This will be the last barrier to believe that the increase in the price of BTC is a technical correction.

If the price of BTC exceeds the 61.8% Fibonacci, the high of 64,700, it will be a sign of a long-term trend change. If BTC declines to the low of 29,147, it will be a clear signal of technical correction for a new bearish wave.

Some analysts believe that the inflation report could give bitcoin the boost it needs to reach the psychological 50,000 level. The markets forecast an increase of 0.5%.

Last month, BTC rose following the inflation report as investors decided it was a good investment to take refuge in BTC, thus achieving a boost above the 29,000 level.

After bitcoin made a triple bottom, this is a reversal pattern, it rose steadily from July 21 until now when it registered a maximum of 45,000, there is a possibility of a turn and change in trend because it is showing a signal of exhaustion.

This rise in bitcoin carries risks of becoming a temporary recovery bounce since the eagle indicator that measures market strength and volume, on daily charts, has reached an overbought zone and is giving a signal of an imminent downward correction in the next few days.


Support and Resistance Levels for August 09 - 10, 2021
Resistance (3) 46,854
Resistance (2) 44,850
Resistance (1) 44,027

Support (1) 42,900
Support (2) 40,951
Support (3) 38,892




Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaFintech Group © 2007-2021

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Crypto community criticized the "infrastructure" bill in the US!



As we said in the previous article, bitcoin has grown to $44,000, but this growth still does not look like the beginning of a new bullish trend. On the contrary, it looks like the last flashes of buyer activity before a new prolonged fall. Now we will try to explain our point of view. First, recently there has been more and more talk in the US that the Federal Reserve may complete the quantitative stimulus program in 2022, which is only five months away. Recall that the Fed's measures to inject trillions of dollars into the economy as part of the stimulus and recovery program after the crisis played an important role in the latest bullish trend. Some of this money flowed to the cryptocurrency and stock markets, which set absolute value records in 2020-2021. Therefore, the latest growth of bitcoin, as well as the entire cryptocurrency market, was directly related to the fact that more and more money was simply and banal in the economy, which had to settle somewhere. However, there is a high probability that the QE program will be completed in 2022, which means that the Fed's printing press will finally turn off and the cash flow to the economy will stop. This means that bitcoin and other assets that were actively growing during the crisis and the pandemic will have much less opportunities to show growth.

Secondly, in the near future, the US may adopt new legislation as part of an "infrastructure" package, which involves increased taxation of the cryptocurrency sector. Simply put, according to the proposed bill, almost all cryptocurrency transactions that are made by any market participants will have to "pass" through the Tax Administration in the United States and be taxed. It doesn't matter who this market participant is. If he/she participates in the cryptocurrency movement chain and receives a certain reward, he/she will be obliged to pay tax. The cryptocurrency community has already criticized this bill, saying that it will adversely affect the development of the cryptocurrency industry in the United States. Experts believe that the proposed tightening of tax legislation is completely unfair, since many transactions and transfers on the network are not profitable or commercial. Moreover, some sections of the bill are practically impossible to implement in practice, and many market participants may leave the United States to avoid collisions with the Tax Administration. It is not yet known whether this bill will be adopted in the form in which it exists now, but it is obvious that if so, the demand for bitcoin in America may greatly sink. Thus, from our point of view, there are two global factors that can create a powerful pressure on digital gold in the coming months.



Technically, on the 4-hour timeframe, bitcoin continues to rise and has exceeded the resistance level of $43,852. There is also an upward trend line that supports the upward movement. Thus, until the price settles below this line, we do not recommend selling bitcoin. Although, from our point of view, there are still high chances that the main cryptocurrency could drop to the level of $29,700.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaFintech Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin breaks short-term key resistance.

As expected after confirming support at $37,000 and after making a double bottom at this level, Bitcoin price has finally broken above the key short-term resistance of $41,000-$42,000. Price has provided another bullish signal and is now trading around $45,000.



Red line - resistance (broken)

Blue lines -Fibonacci retracement

Bitcoin has broken the resistance trend line and the June high. Price is making higher highs and higher lows after the major bottom formation around $29,000. Price has reached the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the entire decline from its all time highs. Our expected bounce target remains at the 61.8% Fibonacci level where the most important resistance level is found. A reversal and break below $37,000 would be a bearish sign.




Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaFintech Group © 2007-2021

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XRPUSD breaks bullish flag pattern.

In our latest XRPUSD analysis we noted the bullish flag pattern that was formed. Price broke the pattern upwards and activated the bullish signal. XRPUSD is expected to move higher.



Red lines - bullish flag

Red horizontal lines - Fibonacci expansion targets

XRPUSD is trading above $0.80. Recapturing the $0.65-$0.75 level is key for the long-term trend in XRPUSD. The 1st target of the bullish flag breakout is at $0.9450. Bulls need to hold price above $0.69. This is key short-term support. A break below this level cancels the bullish target of $0.9450.




Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaFintech Group © 2007-2021

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Markets are buying bitcoin until new tax laws come into force in the United States!



In our recent articles, we said that bitcoin may well return to the level of $42,300, but this time it has exceeded the plan and is currently trading at $44,300 per coin. On the one hand, we did not expect such strong growth. On the other hand, we have repeatedly drawn the attention of traders to the fact that the bullish trend is considered complete, but this does not mean that bitcoin can no longer show growth. Or that it will only fall over the next two years. If you look at the charts of past bullish trends, it is perfectly clear that after that, bitcoin repeatedly showed segments of powerful growth even in the stage of correction and consolidation, which could last for several years. Accordingly, the current growth absolutely cannot be considered as the beginning of a new bullish trend. Simply put, bitcoin broke out of the expanding horizontal channel, overcame several important resistances, but this may be the so-called "bull trap". At this time, when many private and retail investors can believe in the new growth of bitcoin, powerful sell-offs from bigger players may follow, which will plunge bitcoin once again.

Of course, this is just a hypothesis and we always recommend trading exclusively on the trend, and not trying to guess the reversal in one direction or another. Thus, the main conclusion now is this: there is an upward trend (it is especially clearly visible on the 4-hour timeframe), so you should buy bitcoin. But at the same time, you should also keep in mind the idea that there are no fundamental reasons for the new growth of the number one cryptocurrency in the world. That is, on the basis of what bitcoin has risen in price by almost $15,000 over the past few weeks? Because Elon Musk and Jack Dorsey spoke flatteringly about it? What other reasons were there? From our point of view, none. Of course, bitcoin can grow without a foundation, but still we are trying to find logical patterns in the cryptocurrency's movement, and not just guess its movement. Thus, from our point of view, bitcoin is now still preparing for a new powerful fall. It just went a little further up than we expected. Therefore, we expect a new round of downward movement, and from America - we expect news about the tightening of cryptocurrency circulation and tax legislation related to digital assets. And these factors can put real pressure on the entire cryptocurrency market.



Technically, bitcoin has settled above the expanding horizontal channel on the 24-hour timeframe. This suggests that quotes may continue to rise, however, we believe that this is a false breakout. At the moment, the price has reached the level of $43,852, which is also an important resistance, but on the current timeframe it has not gone beyond this level. Thus, it is of great importance where the current day will close. We also pay attention to the 4-hour timeframe (will be discussed in detail in the next article), on which there is a rising trend line, the breakthrough of which may just signal the beginning of a new round of the downward movement.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaFintech Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for August 6, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
The Ethereum network successfully processed the London hard fork. With block 12,965,000, the assumptions of EIP 1559, EIP 3198, EIP 3529, EIP 3541 and EIP 3554 came into force.

To be compatible with the London update, the node operators had to update the running version of the client. The versions listed below for each customer support London on the Ethereum main network. These releases differ from previously announced which served London on test networks. Previous versions do not support London on mainnet.

One of the most anticipated changes to Ethereum, the EIP-1559, is also the biggest one to be introduced in London. EIP has introduced a "base charge" on blocks in the network that will track the gas price that the network will accept from transactions based on demand for block space. This means that it will be easier for wallets and users to estimate what the right price for their transaction should be.

Other changes are:

-EIP-1559: Change of the fee market for the ETH 1.0 chain
-EIP-3198: opcode BASEFEE
-EIP-3529: Reduction in Gas Charges Refunds
-EIP-3541: Rejection of new contracts starting with 0xEF
-EIP-3554: Bomb difficulty delay until December 1, 2021.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has made a new higher high at the level of $2,845 after the successful implementation of London Hard Fork. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $2,861 and $2,914. When the level of $2,914 is violated, then $3,000 is the target. The immediate technical support is seen at the level of $2,695 and $2,639. Strong and positive momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook for ETH.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $3,455
WR2 - $3,077
WR1 - $2,935

Weekly Pivot - $2,529
WS1 - $2,363
WS2 - $1,988
WS3 - $1,819


Trading Outlook:
Ethereum might have started the next wave up as the next long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $3,000. Nevertheless, in order to resume the long-term up trend, bulls have to break through the last swing high seen at the level of $2,880. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key support for bulls.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for August 6, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
As the scope of oversight of the cryptocurrency industry by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) expanded, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) argued that cryptocurrency regulation did not fall under the jurisdiction of the SEC.

CFTC Commissioner Brian Quintenz spoke on Twitter declaring that cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin should be regulated by the CFTC, not the SEC.

Quintenz stressed that cryptocurrencies are commodities and therefore fall under the jurisdiction of the CFTC, unlike securities that are regulated by the SEC:

"To let us all be clear here, the SEC has no power over commodities or their trading systems, whether they are wheat, gold, oil... or crypto assets," he said.

Quintenza's comments came about half an hour after former CFTC chairman Christopher Giancarlo made a similar statement on Twitter, arguing that the CFTC is the only U.S. regulatory agency with expertise in regulating the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets.

The US House of Representatives Agriculture Committee subsequently endorsed Quintenza's statement. The committee's official Twitter account said crypto was "bigger than the SEC" and that Congress "must write laws to protect investors and innovation in the digital economy."


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has bounced from the 38% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $37,351 and is trading above the technical resistance seen at the level of $40,454. The next target for bulls is seen at $41,794 and $43,159. The momentum is neutral-to-bullish, so the odd for bulls to test the supply zone again are high. The key short-term technical support is seen at the level of $36,555.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $53,201
WR2 - $47,804
WR1 - $45,105

Weekly Pivot - $39,794
WS1 - $37,184
WS2 - $31,598
WS3 - $29,174


Trading Outlook:
The bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. The next mid-term target is seen at the level of $47,000. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021