Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin has returned to the important level of $40,700 and is preparing a new collapse!



It has already been mentioned earlier that it is possible for bitcoin to return to the level of $42,300, but it will still resume falling in the future. Thus, at this time, especially on the 4-hour timeframe, bitcoin is moving just perfectly. The quotes failed to overcome the Ichimoku cloud, and the rebound from the important Senkou Span B line provoked a round of upward movement of cryptocurrencies. At the moment, the price has reached the level of $40,700, which we have already mentioned more than once. It is quite possible that a rebound will occur from this level. We believe that the correction scenario will resume in any case. Of course, you always need to have a backup option in stock. If the price overcomes the level of $40,700, then it will be possible to count on continued growth with a target of $43,852. But even if bitcoin quotes get to this level, it still won't change anything. In general, we recommend considering the correction scenario with a return to the level of $29,700 as the main one, but you should also pay attention to the buy signals that can be formed.

Meanwhile, the head of MicroStrategy, Michael Saylor, is already giving interviews almost every day, just like Donald Trump once did. This time, Saylor said that his companies are not going to sell a single bitcoin coin, even if its price continues to fall. According to the financial statements, the last drop in the BTC exchange rate led to serious losses for the company. However, Saylor still insists that all bitcoin coins should be saved, and if possible, buy new ones as well. Thus, nothing changes in MicroStrategy's strategy.

In the United States, Senator Pat Toomey said that the project of taxation of cryptocurrencies in the new "infrastructure" package of the US Congress is not feasible. He drew attention to the too vague definition of "broker", under which almost all participants of the cryptocurrency market fall, even miners. However, in reality, most of the market participants should not fall under the scope of this law, the purpose of which will be to attract additional funds just to finance the "infrastructure" package. In general, while the implementation of this bill is being postponed, the cryptocurrency market, as they say, has exhaled a little. It is no secret that any news about a possible tightening of legislation related to digital assets and their circulation causes a drop in the bitcoin exchange rate. However, yesterday, it was just the opposite. The news that the bill will not be adopted yet and will most likely be reworked, gave optimism to bitcoin buyers and he returned to the level of $40,700.



Technically, bitcoin has just perfectly worked out the Senkou Span B line on the 4-hour timeframe, bounced off it and now has grown to the Senkou Span A line, that is, to the upper border of the Ichimoku cloud, and at the same time to the level of $40,700. Thus, it is possible for the price to rebound from these resistances with a resumption of the fall with a target of $29,700. However, if the level of $40,700 is overcome, then bitcoin will be able to continue growing with the targets of $42,300 and $43,852. In this case, we recommend careful purchases.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ethereum Aims At $3,000

Ethereum increased today as much as 2,820 today and it seems determined to resume its growth. It has taken out strong resistance levels, so an upside movement is imminent. The price of Bitcoin has increased as well, that's why the altcoins have appreciated again.

ETH/USD surged by 11.70% from the 2,530.70 today's low. The price action shows strong buyring pressure. Still, we'll have to wait for the current breakout to be validated before looking for new long opportunities.


ETHEREUM FRESH NEW HIGH!


ETH/USD failed to retest the ascending pitchfork's median line (ML) signaling strong buyers. The current aggressive breakout through the 50% Fibonacci line and above the R1 (2786.17) could indicate more gains ahead.

Stabilizing above the R1 could signal a potential growth towards the upper median line (UML) and up to the 3,000 psychological level.


CONCLUSION!
A minor consolidation here above the R1 (2,786.17) could help us to catch a new upside movement.




Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bullish pattern in XRPUSD

XRPUSD is trading again above $0.70. There are increased chances that XRPUSD has made a major low around $0.50 and is now starting a new up trend. Last April with the break above $0.65-$0.75 resistance price exploded towards $2. This pull back could very well be a back test of this break out.



Red lines- bullish flag

If bulls manage to break again above this resistance level, then we could see a bigger rise above $2. In the short-term price is most probably forming a bullish flag pattern. A daily close above $0.74 will be a bullish sign and as long as price is above $0.68, we should expect XRPUSD to move towards $0.94-$1 at least if not higher.




Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin retests Fibonacci support.

Bitcoin made another pull back towards $37,350 at the 38% Fibonacci retracement. Price made a double bottom as support was respected. Bulls continue to control short-term trend as price recaptures $40,000 price level with potential to see a break out.



Red lines - resistance trend lines

Blue lines -Fibonacci retracements

Bitcoin re-tested the 38% Fibonacci retracement for the second time. This bounce off the 38% level confirms the importance of the support level. Breaking below this level will open the way for a deeper decline towards $34,000. However the double bottom at $37,300-$37,400 is an important sign of strength and if price breaks above the $42,000, we could see a bigger rise towards $50,000. As long as price is above $37,000 we are short-term bullish. Breaking above $42,000 will provide a bullish signal.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin: Optimistic forecast from an on-chain analyst

Well-known on-chain crypto analyst Willy Woo said that market volatility will soon intensify and may push the bitcoin price up to a new all-time high. It should be noted that most of his early forecasts have been worked out, so this review is worth taking a closer look at.

Woo noted that the period of inactivity of bitcoin has reached the bottom. He expects the next bullish cycle to be more aggressive.

On Sunday, he shared a graph showing strong and upbeat fundamentals for online user growth. It has increased parabolic along with the price of bitcoin since 2010, showing structural signs of a bear market. Wu argues that the squeeze we have seen in the past few weeks was the result of supply shock divergence and resulted in a breakout between July 17 and 24.

He also noted that the eight consecutive days from July 21 to 28 were very special from the point of view of the network, as they indicated a large volume of purchases, with both whales and small market participants buying. In an interview on the same day, the analyst explained the reasons why he predicts an impending bullish cycle using a simplified glassnode chart depicting bitcoin's past and current market activity.

He noted the long-term growth in exchange stocks, as more retail investors now resort to help and trust exchanges to store their digital coins. He also shared a similar ETF chart showing a growing trend for institutional investors who collect coins and invest in funds like Grayscale. The amount of bitcoins stored in whale wallets has been declining, signaling an increase in decentralization, which he says is good for the main cryptocurrency.

Woo says you shouldn't dwell on the short-term outlook of cryptocurrencies. Investors should look at the long term.

In December, the analyst predicted that bitcoin is likely to reach $200,000 or $300,000 by the end of 2021. Then he stated that he had never been so optimistic about this asset before. But we still have six months, and time will tell whether such a bold forecast will come true or not.

Meanwhile, the local technical picture looks vague. Bitcoin continues to fight for the last weak bastion of hope for a return to growth. The level of 38,610.88, marked with a red dotted line, is being traded. The bullish engulfing did not please for long and did not justify itself - the short growth of the trading session on Wednesday was completely lost. But it's not over yet. Maybe they will buy out the fall, leaving a long false breakout hairpin. One can only guess, but this does not, in any way, reduce the local uncertainty and does not cancel the two scenarios for BTC/USD, marked on the chart.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for August 05,.2021 - Head and shoulders pattern in creation

Technical analysis:


BTC iis trading downside and there is the HSS pattern in the background.


Trading recommendation:
Watch for the breakout of the HSS formation in the background to confirm further downside movement.

In case of the downside breakout of neckline, watch for selling opportunities on the rally with the downside target at $33,300




Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ethereum outperforms Bitcoin amid software updates



Ethereum rose to its highest level in nearly two months, thanks to an upcoming software update that will slow the rate at which new tokens are minted. Data for Wednesday showed the cryptocurrency gaining as much as 10%, trading at $ 2,726, which is the highest price it reached since early June.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin shot to $ 39,845, which is 4.7% higher than its rate the previous day.



The optimism over the update is reminiscent of the hype surrounding past cuts in block rewards for bitcoin miners. While 'halvings' were planned events, Bitcoin generally rallied in the expectation that demand would either remain stable or rise while the rate of release would slow down.

Ethereum is still far from all-time highs even though it rose by approximately 1,000 pips for the past two months. The past movements form a bullish "W" pattern, and analysts say the token is already on the verge of completing it.

The update, dubbed as EIP-1559, will split about 13,000 new ETH issued daily to pay fees to miners. The base fee that users pay to process transactions will also be removed, which some analysts classified as one of the most important updates in Ethereum history.

Supply may also decline further when Ethereum switches to a different transaction verification mechanism next year. This new system would use computers that support the Ethereum network to stake ETH coins instead of miners.

Miller Tabak chief strategist Matt Maley said the recent comments from SEC chairman Gary Gensler helped allay concerns on potential regulation.





Andrey Shevchenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ray Dalio: Bitcoin is good, but I would still choose gold



Bitcoin has started to fall and will now strive for the level of $29,700. Despite the fact that the cryptocurrency retains chances of returning to the local maximum near the level of $42,300, we believe that it cannot avoid a fall to $29,700 in any case. Thus, the key question at this time is whether bitcoin will continue the current round of falling to the target level in the form of the lower boundary of an expanding side channel, or will it make another test of the upper boundary of this channel and then collapse down? Unlike a whole army of cryptocurrency experts, investors and functionaries do not believe that there are enough grounds for a new bullish trend at this time. On the contrary, we do not see any good fundamental reasons for the continuation of the growth of the bitcoin rate. Yesterday, the SEC (US Securities and Exchange Commission) slightly supported bitcoin, as its head, Gary Gensler, said that the organization will now allow the creation of exchange-traded funds for bitcoin (ETFs). Earlier, according to Gensler, the SEC rejected all such applications. Now, the head of the SEC expects an influx of new people who want to organize such funds. Bitcoin has grown by $2,000 on the back of this news, but this news is of a local nature. Simply put, it can provide a little support, but it is unlikely that a new strong round of the upward trend will now begin because of this message.

At the same time, a well-known financier and founder of the investment company Bridgewater Associates said that bitcoin is "digital gold", but personally he would prefer to deal with ordinary gold, rather than its digital version. According to Dalio, bitcoin is too volatile, too speculative, and it can be banned by the authorities of any country. Dalio also noted that you can justify absolutely any forecast, whether it is growth or decline, but you should not buy such assets just because they are currently on the rise. At the same time, the head of Celsius, Alex Mashinsky, said in an interview with Yahoo Finance that bitcoin is absolutely not suitable for payments, but at the same time it is excellent for savings. According to Mashinsky, the American dollar copes with the payment function perfectly, and other cryptocurrencies are much better suited for this than bitcoin. Also, according to Mashinsky, by the end of this year, bitcoin will soar to $140,000 - $160,000 per coin.

As for us, we continue to draw the attention of traders to the technical picture and the fact that, according to all signs, the upward trend has been completed, which means that bitcoin has entered a period of prolonged consolidation and correction. And even the growth of $10,000 in recent weeks is not a sign that the bullish trend will now be resumed. Moreover, the side channel is visible on the chart.



Technically, bitcoin has worked out the target level of $40,700 with a margin and reached the level of $42,300. However, a rebound from the upper boundary of the expanding channel allows us to expect a strong drop in bitcoin. We still expect a decline in the quotes of the main cryptocurrency to the level of $29,700. So far, the fundamental background remains clearly not on the side of bitcoin. Therefore, it is now possible to sell the cryptocurrency instrument.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for August 5, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
According to information available on Ethereum.org, the Ethereum update called London is scheduled to go live on Thursday, Aug 5, 21st. "The London update is scheduled to be launched on Ethereum in August 2021, in block 12,965,000. It will introduce the EIP. -1559, which will reform the transaction fee market, along with changes in the way gas refunds are handled [...] ".

EIP-1559 will have a direct impact on how the network handles transaction fees. In the future, each transaction will reduce the base charge, thus reducing the supply of assets in circulation and giving users the option to include a tip to encourage faster confirmations in proportion to network demand. Fork London will also introduce other EIPs such as the EIP-3541.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has made a new higher high at the level of $2,770, just before the most recent hard fork called London Upgrade is in use in the Ethereum network. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $2,861 and $2,914. When the level of $2,914 is violated, then $3,000 is the target. The immediate technical support is seen at the level of $2,695 and $2,639. Strong and positive momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook for ETH.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $3,455
WR2 - $3,077
WR1 - $2,935

Weekly Pivot - $2,529
WS1 - $2,363
WS2 - $1,988
WS3 - $1,819


Trading Outlook:
Ethereum might have started the next wave up as the next long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $3,000. Nevertheless, in order to resume the long-term up trend, bulls have to break through the last swing high seen at the level of $2,880. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key support for bulls.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for August 5, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Under a new Google policy that took effect on August 3, companies that offer stock exchange services and cryptocurrency wallets can advertise their products again.

Google is re-running ads from these entities after its updated policies for financial products and services went into effect yesterday.

The international giant banned cryptocurrency and ICO-related advertising in June 2018. The updated policy allows regulated crypto entities to advertise their services again. However, this does not apply to ICOs.

A change to Google's cryptocurrency advertising policy was first announced in June and states that "advertisers offering cryptocurrency exchanges and wallets" targeting US consumers can advertise their services and products if they meet certain requirements.

This move will provide additional sales to Google's parent company, Alphabet, although crypto advertising will likely be just a drop in the ocean of $ 147 billion in ad revenue for the company.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has bounced from the 38% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $37,351 and is trading above the technical resistance seen at the level of $39,413. The next target for bulls is seen at $40,454 and $41,479. The momentum is neutral-to-bullish, so the bounce might continue any time soon.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $53,201
WR2 - $47,804
WR1 - $45,105

Weekly Pivot - $39,794
WS1 - $37,184
WS2 - $31,598
WS3 - $29,174


Trading Outlook:
The bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. The next mid-term target is seen at the level of $47,000. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021