Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Trading Signal for Bitcoin, BTC/USD, for July 28 - 29, 2021: Sell below $40,000



According to a daily chart, BTC / USD seems to be ready to gain the bullish momentum. So, its price could reach the 200 EMA zone located at $ 45,000. At this time of writing, BTC is consolidating above the strong 6/8 murray resistance around the $ 40,000 psychological level.

The recovery of BTC occurred after it had formed a triple bottom in the support zone of 29,580. In the chart, those three points have been drawn, thus demonstrating that BTC has strong support in the zone of the psychological level of 30,000.

Some say it was just rumors that pushed BTC towards the 40,000 level, after about 40 days, which had been in a consolidation phase bouncing above $ 29,000.

BTC has always reacted to any news, whether positive or negative. For this reason, it is a high risk asset. Interestingly, false rumors gave it a fresh impetus. So, also another rumor could negatively affect it. BTC is very vulnerable to panic and euphoria.

Now, we wait for one last attempt to test the 200 EMA zone around $ 43,750. At this level, the 8/8 of murray converges, so it is likely that this is the top to stop the bullish movement that will be followed by a correction to offset the massive bullish move before BTC decides to undertake another similar upward move.

On the other hand, a correction below the psychological level of 40,000 could be a good opportunity to buy in the 4/8 zone of murray around 37,500. This level will give BTC the strength to challenge the 45,000 zone.

The outlook remains bullish for BTC, as seen in daily charts. As long as Bitcoin trades above the SAM of 21 around 33,376, any pullback towards this zone will be a good opportunity to buy.


Support and Resistance Levels for July 28 - 29, 2021
Resistance (3) 44,548
Resistance (2) 41,882
Resistance (1) 40,735

Support (1) 37,652
Support (2) 35,225
Support (3) 32,764




Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

US Treasury Department takes on Tether and Facebook

Bitcoin buyers clearly do not intend to give up and managed to bring back the exchange rate to the $40,000 area today after its sharp correction to the support of $36,700. But before we talk about the technical picture of the trading instrument, I would like to say a few words about the ongoing hidden struggle of the US authorities, albeit not with the cryptocurrency market, but with one of its key players: Tether and Facebook Inc. During a recent meeting of US regulators on the financial risks associated with stablecoins, the Treasury Secretary had a lot of questions for Tether and Facebook Inc., which issues its Diem token.



The Working Group on Financial Markets, led by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, was particularly concerned about Tether's claims that it has huge volumes of commercial securities – in other words, debts that companies issue to meet their short-term financing needs. The participants of the dialogue compared the situation with unregulated money market mutual funds, which may be subject to a chaotic outcome of investors, which will lead to a sharp collapse in the market. The regulator also spoke unflatteringly about Diem, a coin developed by an association that includes Facebook, as well as other companies and non-profit organizations. The risk of its widespread distribution through social networks can also harm the financial system, since Facebook has almost 3 billion active users. Yellen called on agency managers to "act quickly" to ensure that the stablecoin complies with the rules put forward by the regulator. The statement of the Treasury Secretary also emphasized the fact that the market value of stablecoins currently exceeds $100 billion, with Tether accounting for more than half of this amount.

In my review on Tuesday, July 27, I made a special emphasis on this company. According to recent reports, an investigation has been launched against Tether in the United States, in which it will be established whether the leaders of this company committed bank fraud related to this token. A potential criminal case will have serious consequences for the cryptocurrency market. The authorities of many countries are now seriously concerned about their own digital currencies, and companies such as Tether are standing in their way. The investigation of the Department of Justice focuses on events that took place many years ago, when Tether was at the initial stage of its development. Apparently, there is nothing to catch on to now. In particular, federal prosecutors are investigating whether Tether hid transactions related to cryptocurrency from banks. As I noted above, the criminal prosecution will be one of the most significant events in the US government's fight against digital currencies.

Facebook has not yet commented on the statements of the Department of Treasury, and the Diem association declined to comment. Like Tether, Diem has repeatedly stated that they work closely with US regulatory authorities and that they are building their token based on consumer protection and crime prevention.



As for the technical picture of bitcoin, the sharp breakout of the $35,900 level and the growth in the $39,000 area leave quite a lot of hope that the bulls will once again test the resistance at $41,100 in the near future. A breakout and an exit beyond this range will open a direct road to the highs of $46,700 and $52,000. If the pressure on bitcoin returns in the near future, the bulls will need to try not to let BTC fall below the support at $36,700, as a lot depends on it. If the exchange rate goes below this level, most likely, the pressure on the world's first cryptocurrency will return, and we will see a support update of $33,300 and then a retest of $29,200, which will be the last blow to buyers' hopes for the rapid growth of the cryptocurrency. So far, everything is turning in favor of the bulls.






Jakub Novak
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin tries to break through the $ 40,000 mark, but on-chain indicators continue to point to the unreasonable bullish rally

Yesterday, Bitcoin completely leveled the rebound from $ 40,000 that occurred on July 26. Its price has managed to rise by 7% in 24 hours, and the weekly dynamics of price growth is +33%. As of 11:00 Universal time, the main cryptocurrency has broken through the level of $ 40 thousand and is trying to consolidate above the upper line of a wide range of fluctuations. At the same time, the growth of the on-chain indicators of Bitcoin has been observed for three days, but the analysis of the current indicators of the asset indicates the unreasonableness of such a sharp bullish rally.

To start, it is worth noting that the sharp surge in BTC/USD indicators was provoked by a short-squeeze and a surge in volatility in the Bitcoin options market. Due to this, the price of the cryptocurrency rose to $ 40 thousand. The first alarming signal was the relatively low indicators of open interest for monthly contracts in the price range from $ 29 to $ 40 thousand. In addition, the situation on the futures market is changing very slowly, where bearish sentiments persist. The funding costs still remain in negative values, even despite the surge provoked by the liquidation of shorts.

Moreover, a sharp surge in trading volumes and short-squeeze did not affect the dynamics of the exchange value transferred in 24 hours, which remained at the same positions. Considering all these, the active price movement of the BTC/USD pair quotes is not supported by the corresponding on-chain and social activity, which indicates the lack of fundamental growth factors.



At the same time, we will not tolerate the bears. It can be assumed that Bitcoin's price is growing too fast due to the elimination of shorts. Such a strong upward jerk does not allow the market to restore the necessary indicators in parallel with the price movement. However, positive changes are still being observed. For example, an analysis of the behavior of bitcoin addresses indicates a clear increase in the number of those who receive coins, while the number of addresses spending BTC is slowly declining.

The same statistics are supplemented by a statement from the Binance crypto exchange. According to it, Bitcoin was withdrawn from the platform in the amount of more than $ 1 billion. The number of unique addresses that are in contact with cryptocurrency is also growing. In recent days, it has reached the 900 thousand mark and will soon reach 1 million. There is also a twofold increase in the volume of daily trading, which indicates a growing interest in cryptocurrency. Given all this, it would be incorrect to say that the current BTC rally is fiction provoked by a combination of factors.



As of 11:00 Universal time, Bitcoin is quoted in the area of $ 40.2 thousand, showing positive local dynamics of price movement. If the cryptocurrency manages to break through the upper resistance line, which has been stretching since the end of May, the asset will open the direction to the $ 47 thousand mark. But if it fails to consolidate over this area, the digital asset will fall back to the nearest support zone in the area of $ 36.2 thousand. The main technical indicators of the cryptocurrency indicate a bullish mood, so Bitcoin will most likely be able to break through the $ 40.5 thousand mark.

The four-hour stochastic oscillator has formed a bullish intersection, and the MACD continues to grow. At the same time, the RSI indicator fell to the level of 60, which indicates a growing interest in the asset. On a narrower chart, BTC is also showing a bullish mood. Given the current indicators of the cryptocurrency, bitcoin has every chance to break through the $ 40 thousand level and continue its upward movement. If by this time, the market has time to accumulate sufficient volumes and increase the on-chain activity of BTC, then all the prerequisites for further movement to the level of $ 47 thousand and the primary upward target in the area of $ 50 thousand will be opened.







Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for July 28,.2021 - Extreme intraday bullish condiiton

Technical analysis:



BTC has been trading upside and the price tested the key resistance at the price of $41,100.


Trading recommendation:
Due to extreme condition and the buying climax in the background my advice is to watch for the downside rotation in case of the bullish exhaustion.

In case of the upside continuation, next upside level is set at $45,250.

Stochastic Oscillator is showing overbought condition with no fresh bull cross...





Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin unable to stay above $ 40,000



Bitcoin dropped below $ 40,000 on Tuesday as Amazon denied claims that it would accept the token for payments this year. To be more specific, it remained virtually unchanged at $ 37,532 as of 9:15 pm ET, while the competing Ether coin showed a slight decline.



A day earlier, the cryptocurrency rallied after Amazon posted a job vacancy on cryptography. But the momentum quickly fizzled out because a spokesman stepped out and denied that the token will be accepted for payment this year.

Investors rushing to cover bearish rates also helped propel Bitcoin to $ 40,545, the highest level since June 15. More than $ 950 million of crypto shorts were liquidated on Monday, the highest since May 19, according to Bybt.com.

Vijay Ayyar, head of Luno's Asia-Pacific business, said short positions piled up as Bitcoin's rate continues to move down. In addition, the strong fluctuations are part of a broader correction, which could provoke a strong jump towards $ 45,000.

However, many investors are concerned about tighter regulation from many countries, as well as growing criticism on Bitcoin's carbon footprint. They fear that the cryptocurrency will drop below $ 30,000 in the coming months.

Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, also said Bitcoin could decline sharply this week if the Fed announces a hawkish stance on monetary policy.





Andrey Shevchenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Have Bitcoin whales thrown a lifeline to cryptocurrency?



On the 4-hour timeframe, the technical picture that has developed at this time for bitcoin is even more visible. It can be seen that the quotes have passed the distance from the level of $29,700 to $40,700 almost without a single pullback, then they corrected a little. And now, they are again striving to accurately work out the upper border of the side channel. Thus, as we said earlier, the key level at this time is the $40,700 level and the further movement of the first cryptocurrency in the world will depend on its overcoming or not overcoming. Also, recently, information has been repeatedly received that bitcoin whales continue to buy BTC. Various analytical companies indicate that in the last 10 days alone, large investors have bought about 40 thousand bitcoin coins. It is quite possible that the last round of growth was partly caused by these actions of major players. However, it can be recalled that reports of new investments from large investors were received at a time when bitcoin was falling. Thus, purchases by large players of a large number of bitcoins by themselves are not a guarantee of growth for the cryptocurrency. Also, the general supply and demand for cryptocurrency is really important at this time. Bitcoin whales can buy bitcoin coins by the thousands, but if at the same time retail and small investors sell even more coins, then the bitcoin exchange rate will fall.

At this time, it is the mood of the market that can work wonders. Bear in mind that bitcoin is a very faith-dependent tool. Simply put, the more market participants believe that a new bullish trend is possible now, the more investments will flow into bitcoin, since everyone wants to join the hype, which can double your capital in a couple of months. A lot will depend on small and private traders, since there are much more of them than large and institutional ones. In general, in the next couple of days, there may be a real heat on the cryptocurrency market, and bitcoin may surprise everyone once again.



Technically, on the 4-hour timeframe, bitcoin quotes continue an upward trend inside the side channel of $29,700 - $40,700. And at the moment, we have already practically worked out the upper limit of this channel, to which there is only nothing left to go. Thus, the future fate of the cryptocurrency will be decided around the level of $40,700. We believe that after such a strong growth, which is not too justified by fundamental factors, a new decline to the level of $29,700 will follow. But in the case of overcoming $40,700, the upward movement may continue, and traders will be able to buy bitcoin with a target of $43,852.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for July 28, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
During yesterday's press conference, Binance chief Chanpeng Zhao declared that the stock exchange is increasing efforts to regulate its operations in all corners of the world.

Binance held an hour-long press conference, and Zhao himself shared some important comments afterwards. In tweets, we read about the path that Binance is taking on its way to global compliance through talks with various regulatory authorities.

One of these problems is that Binance is not based. Zhao said regional hubs would be set up shortly to provide regulators with a structure "very easy to understand".

"We will continue to adapt to the new regulations to best serve our users. So what are we actually doing? " The first answer to this question was that Binance has started the licensing and approval process where there is already a legal framework for cryptocurrency exchange. Zhao declared that such work is already done in Asia and the Pacific, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East and Africa. "We will be actively working with regulators as we introduce a more specific cryptocurrency framework."


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has bounced from the local low made at the level of $36,336 and is trying to resume the local up trend. If the level of $40,454 is violated, then the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $41,794 and $43,159. Those two levels are part of the key supply zone, so please be prepared for an increased bearish activity at this area. The technical support is located at the level of $36,336.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $42,519
WR2 - $38,542
WR1 - $36,989

Weekly Pivot - $33,120
WS1 - $31,521
WS2 - $27,666
WS3 - $26,112


Trading Recommendations:
The bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for July 28, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
According to the information released to the media, the government of Kazakhstan has approved that authorized banks can provide interested clients with exposure to bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

The information is to come from people associated with the Center Industry and Blockchain Association of Kazakhstan. However, it is not known which banks have been approved to handle cryptocurrency transactions. Cryptocurrency exchanges that are interested in cooperation with financial institutions can apply to the Astana International Financial Center in Kazakhstan.

Extending the banks' offer to include cryptocurrencies will be a pilot. It has been announced that the tests will last for twelve months. As a result, local cryptocurrency companies will be able to legally operate and offer clients access to cryptocurrencies. Another important goal of the project is to collect data, thanks to which the government in Kazakhstan will be able to assess the risks associated with investing in cryptocurrencies.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has made this month's high at the level of $2,435, but the bears were active at this level and pushed the price back under the short-term trend line resistance seen around the level of $2,370. The lower low was made at the level of $2,335 and it looks like a Pin Bar candlestick formation. The pair is now back inside the channel, but if the momentum will keep going up, then the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $2,453. The key short-term support is seen at the level of $2,201 and $2,106.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $2,880
WR2 - $2,525
WR1 - $2,386

Weekly Pivot - $2,056
WS1 - $1,1912
WS2 - $1,571
WS3 - $1,423


Trading Recommendations:
Ethereum might have started the next wave up as the next long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $3,000. Nevertheless, in order to resume the long-term up trend, bulls have to break through the last swing high seen at the level of $2,880. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key support for bulls.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin returns to $40,000. The moment of truth has come!



Over the past few days, bitcoin has shown a movement in its best traditions. There was no really important fundamental background these days. There was only a conference where Jack Dorsey, Elon Musk, and Cathie Wood spoke, there was only news from Tesla and SpaceX, as well as the news from Amazon. This was quite enough for bitcoin to rise in price by $10,000. However, as we have already said in previous articles, it is far from a fact that the upward movement will continue above the level of $40,700, which is the upper limit of the side channel of $29,700 - $40,700. Of course, the movement of the last few days was not only strong, but also rapid. But if traders carefully look at any cryptocurrency chart, they will see that even inside the current side channel, such movements have already been made. Thus, we still believe that bitcoin will not continue its growth and will perform a downward reversal around the $40,700 level. In the currency or cryptocurrency market, you can never be 100% sure of anything. In other words, it was not the comments of Musk or Wood that led to the growth of the bitcoin exchange rate. It was investors who bought coins, so the bitcoin exchange rate increased. Accordingly, no one can ever predict 100% at what time most investors and traders will buy and when they will sell. We can only assume. Theoretically, a new upward trend may even begin at this time, although bitcoin usually consolidates for a year or two after the end of the bullish trend. We want to say that everything is possible, any scenario, but we should focus on one. Therefore, as usual, only technical analysis can help here. And technical analysis says that there is now an important level of $40,700. Accordingly, the future prospects of bitcoin will depend on its overcoming or not overcoming.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund said that bitcoin carries a danger for the economies of many countries, as it can displace their national currencies. According to Tobias Adrian, director of the IMF's marketing department, and Rhoda Weeks-Brown, general Counsel and director of the legal department, cryptocurrencies can become a popular means of payment in countries with high inflation and inaccessible banking services. In countries where bitcoin will have the status of a national means of payment, it will be impossible to fight money laundering and terrorist financing. Also, economists said that cryptocurrency mining is still very unecological. We, in turn, want to remind you that the fundamental background remains quite negative for bitcoin. The markets have already won back most of the negativity, and bitcoin can't get cheaper forever on the same news. Nevertheless, we do not see any serious reasons for the continuation of the growth of the quotes of bitcoin yet.



Technically, bitcoin has grown almost to the target level of $40,700 once again. Yesterday, there was a small pullback down. But, as we can see, it has already been completed. We still expect bitcoin to fall back to the level of $29,700 and try to overcome it again. Therefore, we believe that sales are more relevant now, at least until the $40,700 level is overcome.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical analysis of Bitcoin for July 28, 2021



Bitcoin likely completed a wave 4 correction with the test of 28,600 and should be testing resistance at 41,342 soon and a break above here will indicate the completion of wave 4 and the onset of wave 5 to above the peak of wave 3 at 58,354 and likely much higher to just below 100,000.

Despite the huge decline from the 64,895 peak the uptrend remains firmly in place and should take us way above 64,895 once wave 5 really starts to take off.


Trading recommendation:
Buy Bitcoin above 41,342 for a wave 5 rally to above 64,895




Torben Melsted
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021