Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Trading plan for Bitcoin for July 19, 2021



Technical outlook:
Bitcoin might have carved higher low around $31,000 levels over the last week. The crypto could be preparing to stage another round of rally towards $36,000 and $42,000 levels in the next few weeks. It would be interesting to see how prices react around $42,000 mark since it is also seen as strong resistance for now.

Bitcoin is seen to be trading close to $31,500 levels at this point in writing and is expected to resume rally soon towards $36,000 levels at least. High probability remains for a continued push through $42,000 mark as well. Immediate support is seen at $28,500 mark, while resistance comes in around $36,000, followed by $42,000 levels respectively.

Bitcoin might have carved a meaningful bearish boundary between $65,000 and $28,600 levels respectively. The crypto at least needs to retrace the entire drop before turning lower again. The projected target is towards $42,000 levels at least, before deciding further direction.


Trading plan:
Remain long, stop @ 28,000, target @ 42,000

Good luck!





Oscar Ton
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

The Fed sees no real competition for the dollar in bitcoin



Bitcoin has spent the last few days in a narrow side channel near the level of $31,100 on the 4-hour timeframe. Volatility has fallen to almost zero, and the market is now very "thin". This means that even a relatively small transaction on bitcoin can lead to a serious price fluctuation. It should be noted that there has been little to no important news for bitcoin lately. The markets have already digested the information that China has kicked out all miners and banned all Chinese financial organizations from providing any services related to cryptocurrencies. Therefore, they are waiting for new data, for example, from the United States. Last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, speaking in Congress, did not ignore bitcoin either. In his opinion, bitcoin has failed as a means of payment, and is used only as anonymous payments. The head of the Fed also hinted that work is underway to create a digital dollar, but so far there is no certainty that the advantages of the Fed's own digital currency will exceed the disadvantages. Nevertheless, if the Fed still issues a "digital dollar", then there will be no need for other, "private" cryptocurrencies. According to Jerome Powell, the US dollar currently has no real competitors and it will not lose its reserve status, even if other central banks of the world issue their digital currencies.

But for bitcoin, this information has a "moderately negative" color. The fact is that bitcoin may not be a competitor for the dollar, but the digital dollar can be a very serious competitor for bitcoin. Although, of course, the tightening of tax legislation in the field of digital assets will be more important. Also, the Fed may help bitcoin again in the coming months, as its printing press continues to work at full power, which means that more money continues to become banal in America. Recently, there has been an outflow of capital from the cryptocurrency market, but do not forget that it was during the pandemic crisis that bitcoin grew from $4,000 to $64,000. Therefore, the most important factor that helped bitcoin set a new value record remained relevant. However, in order for bitcoin to grow again, it also requires the desire of traders and investors to buy cryptocurrency again. And it is not observed yet because of the weak fundamental background.



Technically, on the 4-hour timeframe, bitcoin quotes were fixed below the ascending trend line, as well as below the Ichimoku cloud. Also, the price has fallen to the level of $31,100 per coin and has been trying to overcome it for three days. If this overcoming takes place, bitcoin will only hold the level of $29,700 from a new collapse of quotes. Overcoming it will open the way for sellers to the level of $24,350.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin continues to linger around the level of $31,100



The quotes of the main cryptocurrency are lingering around the level of $31,100 for the fourth day in a row. There has been no rebound or overcoming of this level yet, and the volatility of the cryptocurrency has fallen to almost zero. Thus, at this time, traders and investors can only wait for the compressed spring to straighten out. Yesterday, it was mentioned that bitcoin is currently trading quite unusually. Most of the factors, both fundamental and technical, continue to signal a further drop in the quotes of bitcoin. Most crypto experts are confident that bitcoin will continue its decline. But so far ,it has not managed to overcome the level of $31,100.

Meanwhile, the head of MicroStrategy, Michael Saylor, said that bitcoin does not pose any threat to the US financial system and currency. According to Saylor, it is better to call cryptocurrency digital property, rather than a currency, and it poses a greater threat to other assets, such as gold or real estate. "I don't think the United States government is threatened by real estate or buildings or companies or gold," said the CEO of MicroStrategy. Perhaps Saylor is trying to keep bitcoin from falling again with these words. It can be recalled that in the last few months, the cryptocurrency market has been waiting for news not only from China, but also from the United States, where the authorities also intend to tighten the regulation of the circulation of cryptocurrencies. In particular, it is planned to tighten the tax legislation related to digital assets. But no concrete decisions have been made yet, so bitcoin continues to balance on the edge of the abyss, and many billionaire investors are trying to convince the market that bitcoin will start growing again and will definitely reach the $100,000 mark per coin. By the way, it was Michael Saylor who lost the largest percentage of his fortune among all major investors in bitcoin during the last collapse of the cryptocurrency. Because not only bitcoin was falling down, but also the value of MicroStrategy shares. And the company itself is the largest public investor in bitcoin, which has continued to buy "digital gold" even when the "bullish" trend has already ended. Thus, Michael Saylor is extremely interested in bitcoin stopping its decline. His company, which was once associated with software development, is now associated with bitcoin by everyone. When the first cryptocurrency grows, it has a good effect on the company itself and its value, and when it falls -- not very much.

Thus, the fundamental background for bitcoin and its "counterparts" remains quite negative. Unfortunately, positive news has simply not been received recently, so investors and traders simply have no reason to make new large purchases. Institutional traders and bitcoin whales are trying to keep the exchange rate from falling again, but it is unlikely that they will be able to do this.



Technically, bitcoin fell to the level of $31,100 for the sixth time. Thus, the cryptocurrency has already begun to test the strength of the level of $31,100, and in the near future, it may begin to test $29,700. From our point of view, overcoming these levels, and therefore a new drop in bitcoin, is only a matter of time. However, as long as these obstacles are not passed, digital gold retains purely theoretical chances of a new growth to the level of $40,700. However, this also requires the desire of investors to buy bitcoin, which is not yet observed.






Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin is in a coma near the $31,100 level and is preparing for a massive drop



The quotes of the main cryptocurrency trampled around the level of $31,100 for the third consecutive day. It has not yet rebounded or surpassed this level, and the volatility of the cryptocurrency has dropped almost to zero. So, at this time, bitcoin is being traded in a completely unusual manner for itself, and the market is "calm before the storm". Basically, at the moment, BTC quotes have dropped to the level of $31,100 for the sixth time. Most cryptocurrency experts believe that the fall in quotes will continue next week, and the absolute majority call the level of 24,000 as the nearest target. In principle, this goal coincides with our forecasts, and the reasons for a possible fall in bitcoin, which are now being called, are quite simple. Yesterday we already said that in July, investment shares of the bitcoin fund Grayscale worth around $1.4 billion will be unlocked. Simply put, these shares were "frozen" for six months, that is, the owners could not sell the bitcoin coins during this period of time. But in the month of July, they will get such an opportunity. And since the cryptocurrency rate has dropped very much over the past three months, investors can immediately rush to sell their coins. And the influx of several tens of thousands of coins to cryptocurrency exchanges can seriously crash the cryptocurrency rate. Thus, most of the crypto community is expecting another strong drop in digital gold during the remaining two weeks of July. On the other hand, Grayscale investors cannot fail to understand that it is their sales of bitcoin coins that will contribute to a new fall in the rate of this cryptocurrency. Therefore, no matter how paradoxical it may sound, they should not get rid of bitcoin, which has fallen in price over the past three months, so that the cryptocurrency rate does not fall below the level of $31,100. Either way, the next two weeks can be very interesting.

Meanwhile, China is no longer the world leader in terms of mining capacity. In principle, there is nothing surprising in this, since the authorities of this country have seriously tightened their legislation regarding cryptocurrencies, and mining in this country is now simply prohibited. However, research by the University of Cambridge shows that the share of Chinese miners in the bitcoin hashrate began to fall even before the ban on mining in the country was introduced. So last year it was 65%, and in April 2021 it was already 46%. But now the United States occupies the second place in the world in bitcoin mining, and their share in the total hashrate is growing. The third place belongs to Kazakhstan, the fourth - to Russia.



Technically, bitcoin fell for the sixth time to $31,100. Thus, the cryptocurrency has already begun testing the level of 31,100 and may start testing $29,700 in the near future. From our point of view, overcoming these levels, and hence a new fall in bitcoin, is only a matter of time. Nevertheless, as long as these obstacles are not passed, "digital gold" retains purely theoretical chances of new growth to the level of 40,700. However, this also requires the desire of investors to buy bitcoin, which has not yet been observed.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Are there any real chances for Bitcoin to rise in 2021?



The main cryptocurrency continues its downward trend, which has significantly weakened in the last few days. The thing is that bitcoin quotes have fallen to the level of $31,100, which is very important for traders and investors. At least, the price has already fallen to it six times in the last two months and has failed to surpass it each time. Thus, the future prospects of bitcoin for the next couple of months depend on whether traders will be able to overcome this level. In principle, only the level of $31,100 can save it from collapsing right now. We believe that the more times the price tests this level for strength, the more chances that the next attempt will be successful. Of course, we can recall the British pound, which was trading near its 3-year highs for more than a month and even updated them, but could not overcome the level of 1.4240, after which it began to decline. However, Bitcoin is not the pound. Now all participants of the cryptocurrency market should have another issue on the agenda. When is the downward trend in "digital gold" supposed to end and does it have any prospects in the future at all? Recall that in 2020, bitcoin grew solely due to the global crisis, as well as the strongest monetary incentives from many central banks of the world. There was a banal increase in money, so a certain part of it settled on the cryptocurrency market. Now, on the contrary, the whole world is returning to its usual life and the demand for bitcoin is falling. Because bitcoin remains an extremely volatile investment tool, but not a payment tool or a savings tool. Moreover, the year 2021 showed that many governments of the world are ready to oppose bitcoin and other tokens, as they pose a threat to the financial system. Therefore, it can be assumed that in the future the legislation will only be tightened. Especially when central banks start issuing their digital money. They simply will not need competitors in the form of decentralized cryptocurrencies, which can be easily and simply banned at the legislative level. Thus, we would say that a new bullish trend in bitcoin will require a new global crisis or some global fundamental event. It is quite possible that over the next few years, bitcoin will fall to the level of $10,000 and will then trade around it until it gets a new push.



Technically, on the 4-hour timeframe, bitcoin quotes have settled below the upward trend line, as well as below the Ichimoku cloud. Also, the price dropped to the level of $31,100 per coin and has been trying to overcome it for three days. If a breakthrough occurs, then only the level of $29,700 can keep it from collapsing. Overcoming it will open the way for the bears to the $24,350 level.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

The calm before the storm



The main cryptocurrency continues its downward trend. There is no doubt that the "bullish" trend is complete. However, we would like to mention a few important points that can also help traders and investors. The first thing to note is that the volatility of bitcoin has sunk very much in recent weeks. If earlier the cryptocurrency could pass from the minimum to the maximum of the day $ 5000 - $ 8000, now the volatility is $ 1500 - $ 2000 per day. It suggests that overall market activity is falling. The second thing that should be noted is the lack of supporting factors. Previously, bitcoin has always found a reason for optimism. Now, even the forecasts of pseudo-experts of the cryptocurrency market from the category of "$ 100,000 by the end of 2021" do not impress anyone. Perhaps someday, bitcoin will cost $ 100,000 per coin. However, it is not in the coming months. Third, institutional investors cannot maintain the exchange rate of the main cryptocurrency. Again, it is no secret that institutions make up approximately 50% of the bitcoin market. However, as practice shows, even the sale of 10-20 thousand coins (out of a total of more than 18 million) can lower the rate. Even small sales lead to a drop in the cryptocurrency exchange rate. It suggests that the market is very "thin" now, and sales from retail investors are quite enough for the quotes of the "bitcoin" to continue to fall.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb recently wrote an article about bitcoin, in which he once again criticized the "black gold." In his opinion, bitcoin has completely failed as a means of hedging risks and as a currency. He called bitcoin "an extremely fragile asset that needs constant interest in itself." Taleb believes that the real price of bitcoin is zero. Unlike gold and other precious metals (and even just assets), the price of bitcoin depends very much on the market mood. "Bitcoin cannot be used as a protection against systemic risk," Taleb said. Also, the author of "Black Swan" believes that the world needs one or two decentralized currencies. However, bitcoin cannot be such a currency because of its extreme volatility. Thus, we expect a further decline in the quotes of the "bitcoin." We also remind you that in all previous cases, when the upward trend ended, bitcoin subsequently lost up to 90% of its value.



In technical terms, on the 4-hour timeframe, bitcoin quotes were fixed below the ascending trend line and below the Ichimoku cloud. Also, the price has fallen to $ 31,100 per coin and is trying to overcome it for the third day. If this overcoming happens, bitcoin will only hold $ 29,700 from a new collapse of quotes. Overcoming it will open the way for sellers to the level of $ 24,350.






Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin continues to roll down



The quotes of the main cryptocurrency continued to decline steadily and reached the first "dangerous" level of $ 31,100 on Friday. For the third day in a row, bitcoin is trading near this mark, which has worked for the sixth time in the last two months. However, let us pay attention to how the nature of bitcoin's movement has changed over the past few weeks. We continue to stand by our opinion: bitcoin will continue to become cheaper in the coming year. Of course, many "crypto experts" continue to voice crazy forecasts for the cost of bitcoin in 2021, assuring that the current recession is a temporary phenomenon. The "bullish" trend is over, the fundamental background remains sharply negative, and most real experts are confident that the first cryptocurrency will fall into the range of $ 10,000 - $ 24,000. The spread of the range is relatively high because many experts call different goals for the fall of bitcoin. However, the fact that there is a goal of $ 24,000 per coin does not completely negate the forecast of $ 10,000 per coin. The same opinion is shared by the CEO of the investment company DoubleLine, Jeffrey Gundlach. In his interview with CNBC, he said that he sees a classic figure of technical analysis on the bitcoin chart. It suggests that bitcoin will continue to fall, at least to the level of $ 23,000. Earlier, a similar forecast was given by JPMorgan analysts, who believe that BTC may fall to $ 25,000. At the same time, JPMorgan considers that the reason for the further fall will not be technical but fundamental.

This month, the units of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust bitcoin fund will be unblocked after a six-month lock. The peculiarity of these shares is that their owners must keep them on their hands for a certain period without having the right to sell. According to the BYBT service, about 40 thousand bitcoin coins will be unlocked, estimated at $ 1.4 billion. Potentially, these coins (or most of them) can immediately go to cryptocurrency exchanges for sale. Over the past few months, the bitcoin exchange rate has fallen in price by more than two times, and investors of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust did not have the opportunity to sell shares when the price was beginning to fall. However, they are highly likely to want to do it now. And, of course, do not forget that China has almost completely got rid of mining companies, which also does not improve the fundamental background. And in addition, the entire crypto community is waiting for news from the United States, where the legislation controlling the turnover of cryptocurrencies may be tightened.



In technical terms, bitcoin fell to the level of $ 31,100 for the sixth time. Thus, the cryptocurrency has already begun to test the strength of $ 31,100, and it may start to try $ 29,700 in the near future. From our point of view, a new drop in bitcoin is only a matter of time. However, as long as these obstacles are not passed, "digital gold" retains purely theoretical chances of growth to the level of $ 40,700. However, this also requires the desire of investors to buy bitcoin, which is not yet observed.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ethereum Near Demand Zone! Leg Higher?

Ethereum dropped again and now is traded near a major and critical support zone. Technically, it has printed a minor Falling Wedge pattern, but this formation is far from being confirmed, so the bias remains bearish.

The price of bitcoin dropped as well, so you don't want to be long on altcoins as long as BTC/USD drops. Bitcoin is also located above major support, a new swing higher will definitely bring a leg higher on ETH/USD.


ETH/USD FALLING WEDGE!


ETH/USD failed to stay above the weekly S1 (1,988.87), so it could come back to reach 1,850 static support. The S2 (1838.86), the downtrend line, and the pattern's downside line are representing support levels as well.

Staying above all these levels and making an upside breakout from the Falling Wedge pattern could really bring a buying opportunity. Actually, I believe that an accumulation followed by an upside breakout through 2,040.40 could really activate a fresh swing higher.


ETHEREUM FORECAST!
Buy a potential comeback above 2,040.40 former high and use the 2,389.00 as a potential upside target. Only a valid breakout through this level may confirm a larger growth.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BITCOIN - technical analysis of the current situation



Bitcoin was unable to overcome the resistance of the Ichimoku daily cross, reinforced by the monthly medium-term trend (34354.58). Having failed to cope with the resistances after a long confrontation, the bulls lose their strength, as a result, the bulls are active today and are trying to implement the decline. The nearest downward guidelines in the current situation can be noted at the least extremes (29701.91-29151.97) and subsequent supports 27176.82-27160.42 (monthly Fibo Kijun + upper border of the weekly cloud). Stopping and slowing down in a bearish camp, as well as a possible next change in priorities, will make bitcoin recall resistances. Due to the decrease, the resistance levels have slightly changed their location and concentration, uniting within 32827.97 (daily cross) and 34354.58 (monthly Kijun). In case it settles above, not only could it overcome important current resistance, but some trend lines of the current downward movement of higher timeframes will also be broken, so a new assessment of the situation will be needed to clarify further prospects.



We are currently witnessing the development of a downward trend at the lower time intervals. The support for the classic pivot levels S2 (30878) and S3 (30266) are still the downward benchmarks within the day. Key levels, which are now resistances, are starting to strengthen in the area of 32403 (central pivot level) - 32950 (weekly long-term trend), ensuring that the preponderance of forces on the side of the bearish players.

In the technical analysis of the situation, the following are used:

Higher timeframes - Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) + Fibo Kijun levels

H1 - Pivot Points (classic) + Moving Average 120 (weekly long-term trend




Evangelos Poulakis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Cardano is one of the most important competitors of Bitcoin on the market along with Ethereum: a digital asset can beat BTC in many components



Cardano has everything to compete on an equal footing with the big cryptobrother. The digital asset has always been ranked as one of the most promising altcoins on the market due to its security and transaction speed. Cardano is the most watched asset on the eToro platform, which shows extraordinary interest.

More recently, with the bloodbath of the crypto market, Cardano managed to beat the bear market and stay afloat, thereby maintaining its position during the bloodbath and the global fall of the entire altcoin market. Then the asset was trading at $1.96, and the market capitalization rose to $62 billion. At that time, the entire crypto market fell by almost 10%.

Also, do not forget the environmental problems of the same Bitcoin, in particular, which is why Elon Musk refused to accept it as payment. Cardano is already a real green cryptocurrency.

Also Cardano is very quickly accepted on platforms. Grayscale has added Cardano to its massive market cap fund, indicating that the crypto asset is looking to climb new heights. Cardano is the third largest fund component after crypto giants, BTC and Ethereum. Also, at the moment, it is very important to consider such a factor as profitability, both in the short and long term.

If we compare the digital asset in this component, then the institutions that have invested in Cardano now would have received significantly higher returns compared to Bitcoin. If a year ago, crypto players had invested $1,000, they would have earned about $20,000 today, which makes the crypto asset very valuable for the long term and possible future bullish growth. At the moment, it is one of the most promising, most environmentally sustainable and safe assets of the crypto market.






Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021