Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Big market players and long-time holders buy up all Bitcoin from small players: Bitcoin stocks on exchanges are running out



Long-term holders and big market players continue to buy bitcoin from small players in the market, those speculators who continue to sell bitcoin in a panic, having stopped believing that it will grow and will not fall further.

The total amount of BTC held by humpback whales has reached a historical high, the last time such a peak of sales was observed was back in December 2020, when bitcoin was bought and sold at a price of $20,000.

Michael van de Poppe, a well-known cryptanalyst from the Netherlands, writes that a critically strong support level at the moment does not allow bitcoin to break out of the $30,000 and $33,000 zone, and the supply of bitcoins on crypto exchanges has now reached record peaks.

According to analysts' forecasts, the remnants of ethereum and bitcoin on various world crypto exchanges are being reduced and there are fewer of them. Big players are increasingly buying up bitcoin, thereby keeping the entire crypto market in their tight grip.

The amount of bitcoin that customers have recently withdrawn from crypto exchanges is equal to what they last observed in 2018, namely in November-December.

The index of bitcoin storage by short-term holders has decreased as much as possible and continues to fall further, while the index of bitcoin storage by long-term holders continues to increase, and there are more and more whales who buy cryptocurrency for long-term storage from all market players.

This may mean that bitcoin will not soon break through the support level of $30,000-$33,000. While the big whales will buy up all the remaining digital tokens of the world's crypto exchanges, fewer and fewer new investors will want to enter the crypto market and start buying bitcoin.





Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin could start bounce towards $34,000 from current levels.

Bitcoin remains inside the short-term bearish channel and price today reached the lower channel boundary. Holding above $31,000 will be key for what we can see next. Price could find support at current levels and bounce towards the upper channel boundary near $34,000.



Blue lines - bearish channel

Bitcoin resistance is found at $33,096 and next at the upper channel boundary around $34,000. Price has made no real progress since May when it first tested the $30,000 level. Price is consolidating and traders better avoid overtrading Bitcoin. Traders better stay on the sidelines and be patient in order for a setup to be formed first, before starting trading Bitcoin again.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Will Grayscale unlocking bring bitcoin down?

Bitcoin volatility remains low, but the main cryptocurrency continues to fall. And the long-awaited moment of clarity is about to come - will the price reverse sideways from one of the support levels of 31,082.82 or 28,392.99? If so, that would be a good buy point. If not, where are we going to catch BTC/USD?

There are opinions that the current level of volatility of the main cryptocurrency and sideways dynamics are associated with the unlocking of the flagship bitcoin trust Grayscale $GBTC. Many believe that the unblocking of shares will put pressure on the spot market in the short term. At the same time, Grayscale will not sell its BTC after the expiration of the shares.

Investors buy bitcoins to deposit into the GBTC fund and receive shares against their BTC deposit. In a sense, the bitcoins held in GBTC never move, except for the 2% management fees charged by Grayscale.

The unlocking of these stocks is still bearish in the short term, as the GBTC premium turns negative during the sell period. Therefore, investors have more incentives to buy GBTC stock than to buy bitcoins at the spot price.

The GBTC premium currently stands at -11.25%, which means that after selling their shares on the spot market, traders can again buy those shares at an 11% discount. It is more profitable than buying BTC.

The GBTC premium plays a key role in the 6-month holding period. Institutional buyers hope to sell them at a higher premium than the price they were bought at. GBTC traded for most of the first quarter with a premium in a positive price range, but after April it turned negative.

Since there is currently no regulated bitcoin fund that is traded on an exchange, Grayscale crypto products have become a popular choice for investors. The asset management company also plans to convert its GBTC into a bitcoin ETF by next year.

If the next Grayscale unlock becomes a bearish factor for the cryptocurrency, it is still worth keeping an eye on the technical price action. Today the price of BTC/USD has almost reached the level of 31,082.82. Below is another strong support at 28,392.99, and only the consolidation below this level can be considered a bearish signal. In other cases, the chances of bitcoin recovery remain.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BTC hit a two-week low due to selling pressure: will a $28,800 retest happen?

Bitcoin continues to be in uncertainty and is trading in a wide range of $31,000 - $41,000. For more than two weeks, the market has formed another local channel of fluctuations in the range of $36,000 - $31,000. Over the past few days, there has been a tendency for an even greater narrowing of the fluctuation corridor, which has begun to gravitate towards the lower border. In a broad sense, this is due to both fundamental factors, such as the news background and the general economic situation of individual regions, and technical ones.

Such a clear movement of the bitcoin towards the lower border is associated with bearish trends in the market and record low volumes of daily trading. At the same time, the general situation of BTC is far from even moving to the level of $36,000, where local resistance is concentrated. This is because, with each unsuccessful attempt to gain a foothold above $34,000 and the subsequent rollback, fewer buyers are ready to win back the price decline. This is partly due to the general trend of intra-range trading, which does not allow for profit. Partly with the increased pressure of sellers, who put pressure on the price, and each subsequent rebound from the level below $32,000 is getting smaller. This trend is clearly visible in the context of the last few days when the coin failed to reach even the middle of the local oscillation channel.



In the short term, this promises a gradual downward movement and a retest of the support level at $30,000. The breakout of the main horizontal line at $31,800 can be carried out today, when bitcoin ends the trading day under the $32,800. In a broader perspective, the gradual declination of the channel towards the descending line will lead to a shift in the fluctuation range in the corridor of $25,000 - $30,000. The next resistance zone, after the breakdown of $30,000, will be the $28,800 mark, where at the beginning of July the market found the bottom and made a powerful rebound. This support level will become the key when analyzing the further movement of cryptocurrency quotes. This is because after a powerful rebound at around $28,800, many stops and liquidations of long positions were formed, as at the most critically low point of the current market cycle.

If this happens, then the quotes of the BTC/USD pair will sink even lower, to the level of $20,000 - $25,000, and pull altcoins along. In the medium term, this can provoke a sharp trend reversal and push bitcoin out of the $30,000 zone. As of July 15, it is extremely difficult to judge the strength of such an impulse and its impact on the growth of BTC quotes. At the same time, given the current interest of players in the market and the record low volumes of daily trading since December 2020, this movement will help restore the fluctuation ranges of the mid-June sample.

As of 14:00 UTC, bitcoin quotes remain under the $32,000 mark. On the intraday time frame, bitcoin tried to gain a foothold above $33,000, but the pressure of sellers takes the asset under the safe zone of $32,000. On a weekly basis, the main task of buyers is to return to the average value of fluctuations in the region of $34,000 and the subsequent movement beyond the resistance zone (above $36,000). If you designate the target more locally, then BTC must end the current day above the buyback zone on July 14, that is, above $31,800. If the asset completes trading under this line, then on July 16-17, the fluctuation corridor will move to the levels of $31,000 - $30,000.







Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading Signal for XRP/USD (Ripple) for July 15 - 16, 2021: Buy above $0.5859



XRP / USD is trading with a bearish bias and gradually moving towards the 3/8 murray support at $ 0.5859. This is an important level for the bulls because if they do not defend it, a very sharp decline to the 0.3906 support zone could occur.

There is a psychological level that the market has tested on June 22. If the price returns to this level and bounces above, it could be a good opportunity to buy. On the contrary, if the downward pressure breaks this area, the arrival will be at $0.3906.

We believe that Ripple could continue to consolidate for a while and continue to bounce above 0.5859. The target on the upside is the resistance zone of the 21 SMA and the 4-hour bearish channel around 0.6250.

If the price of XRP breaks out of the 21 SMA and the bearish channel and consolidates above 0.63.50, there is a possibility of an increase in the value of XRP towards the resistance zone of the EMA 200 located at $0.6907.

The eagle indicator on 4-hours charts is showing a bearish signal. We believe that any bounce towards the resistance zone of the 21 SMA or the 200 EMA will be opportunities to continue selling Ripple (XRP / USD).


Support and Resistance Levels for July 15 - 16, 2021
Resistance (3) 0.6408
Resistance (2) 0.6245
Resistance (1) 0.6069

Support (1) 0.5748
Support (2) 0.5673
Support (3) 0.5520





Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Is Bitcoin a defender against inflation or a bubble?

The bitcoin exchange rate has slightly decreased recently, and the bears have again taken up their favorite business - trying to gain a foothold below the level of 32,400.

Since the beginning of this month, bitcoin volatility has remained fairly calm between $32,000 and $34,000. Many traders were waiting for the market reaction to the US inflation data, as it was a real test for a trading instrument, which is considered as a hedge against inflation. Higher costs associated with the opening of the US economy after the pandemic have led to a sharp increase in prices. The last time such a jump was observed was in 2008.

According to official data, the US CPI rose 0.9% in June this year, while economists had forecast growth of only 0.4%. The growth was due to a jump in spending aimed at restoring the American economy after the coronavirus pandemic. Over the past year, inflation has risen by 5.4%, which also significantly exceeded the forecasts of economists, who believed in the growth of 4.9%. The underlying effect continues to grow after inflation started to rise in June last year.



But as we can see, against the backdrop of rising inflation in the United States, bitcoin has not shown strengthening, although enthusiasts argue that the first cryptocurrency is insurance against rising consumer prices and ultra-soft monetary policy, which consists in printing money in huge volumes. Those who believe in bitcoin and its protection against inflation think this way: unlike the US dollar or any other traditional currency, bitcoin is designed for a limited supply, so it cannot depreciate.

However, there are those who are not yet very confident that bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies can be viewed as gold, which has long had the status of an inflation-protective asset. The logic is this: the world of cryptocurrencies is just beginning to emerge and the markets are subject to too high speculative pressure. Opponents of bitcoin, who do not consider it to be insurance against inflation, also advocate this thesis.

The fact of the fall of bitcoin in May and the beginning of an active struggle against the industry on the part of China was enough for speculators to escape from the market in all possible ways, which once again proves the correctness of those who do not yet strongly believe in bitcoin as a tool to protect against inflation. Bitcoin does not have a high payment potential, since settlements with it are carried out at a minimum level. High fees and transaction delays due to the government's fight against Chinese miners are also not adding to bitcoin's attractiveness at the moment.

But even despite this, some firmly believe in the prospect of cryptocurrencies and the development of this technology in the future.

Ark Investment Management's Cathie Wood says that concerns about the environmental impact of bitcoin, which were not the last reason for the crypto market crash in May, are unlikely to hinder it in the long term. In her opinion, more and more miners are now switching to renewable energy sources, which in the future will only contribute to the strengthening of the market.

And in some ways Wood is right, since many miners have recently been looking more closely at nuclear power, and it is quite possible that soon there will be quite a lot of offers on the markets in this direction, there would be demand. Amid a heated debate over environmental concerns over bitcoin mining, two companies in the industry have already said they have an answer to mitigate some of the negative impacts of bitcoin mining. The answer is nuclear power.

Energy startup Oklo Inc. stated that it has partnered with the bitcoin mining company Compass Mining. The company noted that the collaboration is aimed at trying to reduce fossil fuel waste emissions from bitcoin mining and diversify the energy sources used by miners.

Energy Harbor Corp., a power company, also recently announced that it has entered into a five-year partnership with Standard Power and will operate Standard Power's bitcoin mining center in Coshocton, Ohio.



As for the technical picture of bitcoin, it has not changed after the weekend. Buyers have real problems with the breakout of the $36,000 resistance, which creates quite a lot of problems for further growth. A breakout of this range will lead to a new upward wave to the upper border of the side channel of $41,100. Only after the breakout of this range can we seriously talk about a new wave of BTC growth to the highs of $46,700 and $52,000. The bears face a completely different task. First, they need to prevent bitcoin from going above $36,000, and then somehow break below the support at $32,400, which was formed at the end of last month. Only after that can one expect a decline to the area of the lower border of the side channel at $30,000. A breakdown of this level will collapse the rate to the lows at $25,700 and $21,650. It is still too early to talk about $10,000, but in the future, this level can become the real bottom of the cryptocurrency market.





Jakub Novak
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for July 15,.2021 - Watch for the downside continuation towards $30.000

Technical Analysis:



BTC has been trading downwards today and there is the breakout of the balancing process in the background.


Trading recommendation:
My advice is to watch for selling opportunities on the rallies with the downside target at the price of 30.000

Stochastic oscillator is showing negative reading with no bull cross....





Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading plan for Ethereum for July 15, 2021



Technical outlook:
Ethereum might have carved a higher low around $1,865 levels yesterday and could be looking to resume higher again towards $2,900 levels at least. The recent boundary that is being worked upon is between $1,700 and $2,400 levels respectively. Also note that Ethereum has potential found support just around fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the above boundary (not shown here).

Ideally, Ethereum bulls might take control back from here and resume its rally towards $2,900 and higher levels. Bottom line for the above to hold well remains $1,700 lows, which should hold well. Immediate support is seen around $1,700 mark, while resistance is at $2,900 levels respectively. Also note that March 2020 trend line support also remains intact for now.

Ethereum is seen to be trading above $1,900 levels at this point in writing and is expected to turn higher from here soon. Traders are advised to initiate fresh long positions here with risk below $1,700 and potential target above $2,900 levels respectively.


Trading plan:
Remain long, stop @ 1,600, target is @ 2,900 at least.

Good luck!




Oscar Ton
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin's fate depends on the decision of early investors!



It's no secret that bitcoin has completed its bullish trend and is now in correction and consolidation, which in total may take at least a year or two. Therefore, crypto experts around the world currently estimate not the probability of bitcoin's growth in 2021, but the probability of its fall. Various factors are being studied, and one of these factors is the actions of early investors. According to various estimates, about 20% of the 18 million bitcoin coins already mined are "inactive". This means that these coins have been on wallets without movement for more than five years. Therefore, no one knows what their owners are going to do with these coins. It is possible that access to most of these wallets has long been lost. Perhaps they are owned by early investors who bought coins back when they were worth $5-10. Thus, when movements begin on such wallets, it shocks many crypto experts. The fact is that with such wallets, owners can only sell their coins. That is why they can be identified as "inactive". And if the sale of "inactive" coins begins, this leads us to the conclusion that long-term investors no longer believe in the further growth of the bitcoin exchange rate and try to get rid of it at the current rate. Naturally, any major sale causes a new drop in the quotes of bitcoin, which is already on the edge of the abyss. Thus, the future of bitcoin will partly depend on these 20% of "inactive" coins.Thus, we get the overall picture.

The fundamental background for the main cryptocurrency remains sharply negative. Early investors are more inclined to sell their coins. The number of coins on the wallets of bitcoin whales is growing (which indicates new purchases from large investors), but does the demand exceed the supply? Only in this case, bitcoin can start growing again. And since bitcoin has been declining recently, the conclusion suggests the opposite. Also, Guggenheim Global Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd believes that the main cryptocurrency is in the midst of its next collapse. In his opinion, bitcoin will not be able to avoid another fall by 70-80%, which means a price of 10-15 thousand dollars per coin. "Put it this way, I wouldn't be in a hurry to buy Bitcoin and I don't see any reason to own it right now," Minerd said.



Technically, on the 4-hour timeframe, bitcoin quotes were fixed below the ascending trend line, as well as below the Ichimoku cloud. Therefore, in the short term, we expect a new drop in bitcoin quotes to the levels of $31,100 and $29,700, which are key for bitcoin. The further fall of the cryptocurrency will depend entirely on the market's ability to keep the rate above these levels.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Another province in China suspends crypto mining



The quotes of the main cryptocurrency continue a systematic decline to the dangerous levels of $31,100 and $29,700 per coin. In principle, given that bitcoin has not yet overcome these levels, it can be concluded that large investors are keeping bitcoin from a new fall with the last of their strength. But will they have enough strength in the end? It has already been mentioned previously that about 50% of investments in bitcoin come from private and retail traders and investors. Therefore, investors are not ready to keep bitcoin on their balance sheet for many years in order to use it as a long-term investment like stocks. They are interested in short-term profit (the time to keep the transaction open for up to a year). Thus, when the value of the cryptocurrency begins to fall, they immediately begin to sell their coins, fearing an even greater decline in quotes and receiving losses instead of profits. And bitcoin can fall no worse than it can grow.

It can be recalled that the two previous upward trends, in which BTC set value records, ended with a drop of up to 90%. Therefore, we continue to consider the option with a further fall as the main one. At the moment, the quotes have fallen to the level of $32,600. Meanwhile, new important news has arrived from China, which can further lower the rate down. In Anhui Province, all mining farms will be closed due to power outages. This cannot be considered surprising news, since, according to various estimates, up to 90% of miners in China have already stopped their activities. Also, the State Electricity Company of China announced the need to completely stop mining cryptocurrencies. Thus, there is no doubt that the ban on mining in China is not a temporary action of the government against digital assets. Of course, almost all large miners will simply transport their equipment to other countries that are more loyal to cryptocurrency mining. However, in the long term, this absolutely does not guarantee them a quiet life there.

Recently, rich and economically developed countries have taken a course to combat tax evasion by large corporations. For example, a single corporate tax will now be introduced in all countries of the world so that large corporations do not register their divisions and production facilities in countries with low and zero tax rates, thus not paying additional taxes in the countries where their headquarters are located. The same thing can happen with bitcoin over time. If the majority of large economic countries decide that bitcoin harms their financial stability (as in China), nothing will prevent them from issuing a decree that will restrict the functioning of the cryptocurrency sphere around the world. Thus, from our point of view, bitcoin will continue to become cheaper, and its prospects are not at all rosy.



Technically, bitcoin is again heading to the level of $31,100, which it has already worked out five times. Thus, in the coming days, the cryptocurrency will again test the strength of the levels of $31,100 and $29,700. From our point of view, overcoming these levels, and therefore a new drop in bitcoin, is only a matter of time. However, as long as these obstacles are not passed, "digital gold" retains the chances of growth to the level of $40,700. But this also requires the desire of investors to buy bitcoin, which is not yet observed.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021