Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Technical analysis for Bitcoin

Bitcoin



The situation has returned to the uncertainty zone. The center of attraction that holds back further development is now the area that combines the daily Ichimoku cross and the monthly medium-term trend (34354.58). These levels' influence still does not allow us to have a clear leader in the market and make far-reaching plans. An attempt to change the situation with the further appearance of bullish prospects may be a rise to the following resistances 35498-36079 (daily Fibo Kijun + lower limit of the daily cloud) and 37884 - 38958 (weekly and monthly short-term trends). As for the bears, the breakdown of the nearest important border, namely the supports of the minimum extremes (29701.91 – 29151.97), will allow them to make new plans.



The attraction of the levels in the bigger time frames, which provoked long-term uncertainty, does not allow the situation to develop. Therefore, the key levels in the smaller intervals join forces and retain their position. They are currently set in the area of 33501 - 33647 (central pivot level + weekly long-term trend). A movement above these levels will provide a certain preponderance of forces on the H1 chart in favor of the bears.

In contrast, trading and consolidating below the key levels gives the bears the advantage in the smaller time frames. The other pivot points today include the resistance level of 34466 (R2), which is being tested, and 34925 (R3). In turn, the supports of the classic pivot levels are at 33286 - 32827 - 32466.

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) and Kijun-sen levels in the higher time frames, as well as classic Pivot Points and Moving Average (120) on the H1 chart, are used in the technical analysis of this instrument.





Evangelos Poulakis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical analysis of Bitcoin/USD for July 12, 2021



Bitcoin is locked in a range between 30,066 to 40,904 and the big question is whether we will see a break below 30,066 and a much deeper correction towards 16,400 or Bitcoin will recover for a new uptrend towards the 64,895 peak and ultimately above here too for a rally towards 97,000?

We do see a bullish divergence in both the RSI and MACD indicator indicating a possible bottom being in place, but we still need a clear break out of this range to confirm the next direction up or down. We do favor the upside to hold the better odds, but nothing is given yet.


Trading recommendation:
Use the break out of the range and go with whatever side breaks for the next serious move. Buy a break above 40,904 for a rally above 64,895 or sell a break below 30,066 for a continuation towards 16,400




Torben Melsted
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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China intensifies bitcoin crackdown



China has put huge pressure on bitcoin and other altcoins after they banned miners from working on their territory, as well as after banning Chinese crypto companies and over-the-counter dealers from conducting transactions related to cryptocurrencies. This caused a storm of negative emotions and became a catalyst for the fact that Bitcoin is in limbo and cannot get out of the bear market in any way.

Why is bitcoin unprofitable for China, that it wants to get rid of the number one cryptocurrency by all means? China has been working on its own digital currency, the yuan, for a long time, and is afraid of the rapid growth of crypto assets that are outside the legal field, they cannot be tracked and they are completely decentralized.

The digital yuan may become the first state-owned global digital currency, so the presence of bitcoin in China may overshadow its development and demand. For more than a year, the People's Bank of China has been testing the digital yuan. If everything goes according to plan, then this year it can be launched and made as an official means of payment.

With its complete rejection of the cryptocurrency, the People's Bank of China may feel like a fish out of water. In addition, after abandoning the cryptocurrency, they may gradually abandon the dollar, thereby reducing China's dependence on the American fiat currency, protecting themselves from possible international currency sanctions.

The Chinese proprietary digital currency will allow the country to monitor its economy and will give quite strong and advanced levers for manipulating it, thereby monitoring the spending of the yuan among the Chinese.

However, this may not go easy for China as well. Everything can go wrong if Chinese citizens do not want to use the yuan and go around the law to buy cryptocurrency. Also, cryptocurrencies that cannot be tracked and regulated are completely decentralized, carry a huge danger for the Chinese Communist Party, and threaten the financial stability of the country.





Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading Signal for RIPPLE (XRP) for July 09 - 12, 2021: Buy above $0.5859



RIPPLE (XRP) on daily charts is consolidating in the 3/8 murray zone around 0.5859. For the last few days, it has not been able to break the 200 EMA after having reached the highs of 0.7298. The price is now at the level of strong support, a technical rebound above this level is expected.

According to the daily chart, the Ripple is oscillating within a price range between 0.58 to 0.72, suggesting indecision between the bulls and bears about the next trend movement. Therefore, traders seem to be avoiding big bets.

However, this consolidation between $0.58-$072 is unlikely to continue any longer, as the market in a bearish direction can go towards the $0.39 level and in a bullish direction to $0.97.

Soon, the price can start a decisive move. If the bulls push the price above the 200 EMA (0.73), Ripple can easily climb to the 4/8 murray zone and up to 5/8 at 0.9766.

On the contrary, if the price falls below USD 0.55, the bears will drag the price to $ 0.3906 (2/8), but first the strength of the psychological level at $ 0.50 must be tested, if it breaks this support level it will suggest the resumption of the downtrend.

Our recommendation is to buy above 3/8 murray with short-term targets at 0.7812, the eagle indicator is in the oversold zone, and a technical rebound could occur in the next few days.


Support and Resistance Levels for July 09 - 12, 2021
Resistance (3) 0.6751
Resistance (2) 0.6520
Resistance (1) 0.6301

Support (1) 0.5968
Support (2) 0.5749
Support (3) 0.5436




Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Central bank reserve managers are ready to consider bitcoin as an alternative to gold

While bitcoin is slowly and steadily declining within the corridor of 31,082.82 - 41,980.24, while working out the forecast, let's look at how the perception of cryptocurrencies in the world is changing. Incoming news suggests that, even in central banks, attitudes are slowly but surely warming.

A UBS survey found that the number of central bank reserve managers who prefer cryptocurrency investments is still quite low. However, it is gradually increasing, and 11% of respondents in a recent survey said they could consider cryptocurrencies like bitcoin as an alternative to gold. The survey, which was conducted in April and June this year, involved 30 central banks.

46% of reserve managers said they do not believe central bank digital currencies will replace cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin and believe that both will exist in parallel.

83% of respondents said central banks would be interested in investing in cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin to learn about them as a new asset class, investment process, and investment management.

Over 20% of those surveyed noted that the investment potential of private cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin, is not associated with investments in other assets. For these managers, the alternative will be central bank digital currencies. The survey showed that most Central Banks and their reserve managers are extremely positive about these types of cryptocurrencies.

The majority of respondents prefer central bank digital currencies as a way to update traditional payment and financial infrastructures such as clearing and settlement. They also intend to use them to reduce crime and money laundering, as well as to contain the extreme volatility that bitcoin and altcoins have.

UBS notes that 60% of those surveyed said they expect G7-led central banks to provide central bank digital currencies directly to customers over the next 50 years. And 80% of them said that "wholesale" central bank coins intended for use by large institutions would be issued during the same period.

Note that these central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are currently under development. It is still unclear exactly how they will look. At the same time, it seems that the motive for their release is opposition to bitcoin and other private cryptocurrencies.

Experts point out that in fact, central banks' concern about the lack of control over private coins explains their increased interest in the development of CBDC. A recent study by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) found that 80% of central banks study CBDC at one level or another.

As for bitcoin, the forecast of a possible reversal upwards from the support of the sideways trend at 31,082.82 - 41,980.24 or the level of 28,392.99 remains relevant. I do not exclude a true breakdown of these boundaries with a consolidation below, but this will require a strong news driver.




Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

People's Bank of China: Bitcoin is a threat to the financial system



Over the past trading day, bitcoin has lost $2,000, but at the same time it remains inside the side channel, which was repeatedly talked about in the previous articles, $31,100 - $40,700. However, if in the first half of the last two-month period the quotes jumped from one border to another, then in the last few weeks they are firmly located near the lower border of the channel and refuse to move far away from it. This behavior of bitcoin only confirms our hypothesis that sooner or later the implementation of the correction scenario will continue. Simply put, the upward trend is completed, and in the previous two cases, after the trend ended, a long period of consolidation and correction began, during which bitcoin lost up to 90% of its value. We believe that everything will now go according to this scenario. In principle, bitcoin only has to overcome the level of $31,100 and the accompanying $29,700. And given the fundamental background of recent months, this will not be too difficult. The problem with the fundamental background now is that it simply does not improve. Earlier, there was negative news and the markets worked it out, after which they restored purchases of cryptocurrency, since there was more positive in general. But now, the markets are immersed in negative, which increases its pressure every day.

Yesterday, the People's Bank of China made an official statement, which refers to the threats from bitcoin and stablecoins to the country's financial system and its social stability. Fan Yifei, deputy chairman of the People's Bank of China, noted that China did not just begin to tighten control over the circulation of cryptocurrencies and issued an order banning mining. It was the threats emanating from cryptocurrencies that served as the reason for this decision. After this statement, the BTC quotes collapsed by $2,000.

On the other hand, the founder of the investment company SkyBridge Capital, Anthony Scaramucci, believes that the ban on mining in China can be a positive factor for "digital gold" in the long term. After mining and financial transactions with bitcoin were banned in China at the level of companies and firms, the volatility of bitcoin has greatly decreased, which is a plus, according to Scaramucci. Also, after this decision of the Chinese authorities, the share of coins extracted with the help of "green" energy increased, according to some studies. Thus, according to Scaramucci, certain advantages for the future of bitcoin can be found here.

In the long term (5-10 years), bitcoin may still show more than one upward trend. But at the moment, it is aimed at updating its local minima. And the final news from the United States has not yet come, where the authorities also want to seriously tighten the regulation of the cryptocurrency sphere, and, in particular, implement strict tax control over all large transactions. If such a decision is made, then bitcoin may experience a new shock.

Daily time frame


Technically, bitcoin has fallen to the support level of $31,100 five times already. Therefore, purely theoretically, at this time, bitcoin can continue a new round of movement to the upper limit of the side channel - the level of $40,700. However, we believe that bitcoin continues to aim to overcome the level of $31,100, and we fully support this scenario. The consolidation of quotes below the level of $31,100 will signal the continuation of the fall of BTC. Many crypto experts, including large banks, believe that bitcoin will continue to fall in the coming months.


4-hour time frame


On the 4-hour chart, the quotes of bitcoin were fixed below the ascending trend line, which at least supported the upward trend. The price also overcame the Ichimoku cloud, from the lower border of which it has repeatedly bounced recently. From our point of view, these signals are strong enough to now expect a fall to at least $31,100 and $29,700. Then, everything will depend on overcoming or not overcoming these two most important levels.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Will the Shiba Inu coin's price rise in the near future?



The price of the Shiba Inu coin can significantly increase anytime soon, and the catalyst for this was the launch of the long-awaited decentralized exchange (Dex) ShibaSwap. Shiba Inu, like other altcoins, is now in the bear market networks, where a clear downward trend is visible, After Bitcoin declines, it naturally pulls all other altcoins, in particular the SHIB coin.

Now, the meme coin is trading at the level of 0.00000080 and it is clear that the digital asset has fallen by 8% over the past day. The potential killer of Dogecoin rose in price by more than 6% immediately after the launch of the decentralized exchange. In addition, the Shiba Inu cryptocurrency was added to the platform Shopping.io and now buyers can make purchases and conduct transactions on huge global marketplaces, such as Amazon and eBay.

This news can also become a significant catalyst for the Shiba Inu coin's upward trend. The decentralized ShibaSwap platform now allows users to conduct transactions and small trades, which can serve to attract significant interest from institutional investors.

The developers also said that they are working on another digital token, which will be called BONE, and in the very near future they said that the capabilities of the Shiba Inu digital currency will be significantly expanded with NFT through the decentralized ShibaSwap platform - and all this will be this summer.

Not so long ago, Shiba Inu was considered some kind of meme and just a joke, but now, many people can consider the token seriously as a real digital means of payment. Shiba Inu coin can significantly increase in price in the future, namely within 5 years, and even overtake Dogecoin with the proper development of the decentralized ShibaSwap platform.

The intense consumer interest in this digital currency is clearly visible. And after adding it to the platform Shopping.io with the possibility of paying for it on a platform such as Amazon, interest in the currency has significantly risen. This can serve as a huge catalyst for the demand, popularity, and consolidation of the SHIB cryptocurrency in the very near future.





Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading Signal for BTC/USD (Bitcoin) for July 08 - 09, 2021: Sell Below $33,933



The price of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is located in a zone of bearish pressure. It seems to be about to retest the $ 30,000 as traders were willing to liquidate their profits or invest in other assets.

There is a probability that Bitcoin will break below the psychological level of 30,000. This is due, in part, to the external pressure that is being exerted in the mining field and to the fact that it is now more difficult to have a bullish outlook due to the sharp fall of more than 50% in the month of May.

These events have made traders and investors more cautious, as they expect a stronger support zone or an attractive level to buy again. It could surely happen if the market continues to operate within this current price range.

The outlook will remain bearish for BTC, given that in recent weeks it has not been able to consolidate above the $ 35,128 zone of the 200 EMA, a daily close below 31,250 (5/8), it could quickly fall to the $ 25,000 level this level is important for a long-term bounce.

Peter Brandt, CEO of Factor LLC, a global trading firm, also suggested a decline towards $ 30,000. The veteran trader saw the BTC / USD pair within a rectangular pattern, a price block that has kept Bitcoin within a range.

Our recommendation is to sell the BITCOIN below 33,933 or 35,128, with targets at 31,250 and 25,000. The eagle indicator is showing bearish signal.


Support and Resistance Levels for July 08 - 09, 2021
Resistance (3) 35,110
Resistance (2) 34,336
Resistance (1) 33,169

Support (1) 32,260
Support (2) 30,881
Support (3) 28,710



Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ethereum breaks out of wedge pattern.

In our last analysis we warned traders that a bearish wedge pattern formation was in play for Ethereum. Today price broke down and out of the wedge pattern as expected and price is moving lower towards our first target of $2,000.



Red lines - wedge pattern

Blue line- bearish divergence

In our previous posts we also noted the bearish RSI divergence in Ethereum. Combined with the bearish wedge pattern, we warned traders that the most probable direction price would take was to the downside. Price is now at $2,140 and is approaching our first target of $2,000. Resistance remains key at $2,400 and as long as price is below this level, we will remain bearish.




Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin: Authoritative and optimistic forecast for the second half of 2021

In the monthly cryptocurrency newsletter Bloomberg Crypto Outlook for July 2021, Mike McGlone stated that the price of the main cryptocurrency could rise a hundred times higher than the price of an ounce of gold. The senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence explains his forecast with technical analysis.

"Bitcoin may be more than a digital version of gold. A potential path for the Bitcoin price is to stabilize around 100x an ounce of gold and for volatility to resume its downward trajectory, if past patterns repeat."

The price of one ounce of gold is now worth just over $1,800.

Bloomberg Crypto Outlook also noted that the second half of 2021 will be different for the cryptocurrency market compared to the first.

"The crypto market is likely entering a more adult stage in 2H, and we see Bitcoin regaining luster."

The report did not ignore the second cryptocurrency. It noted that the growing adoption of Ethereum is an optimistic sign that the second-largest crypto asset by market capitalization may follow the same trajectory as Bitcoin in 2017.

"The go-to platform for cryptos and decentralized finance – Ethereum – appears at a discount within a bull market and could consolidate for a while at $2,000-$4,000. Looking like Bitcoin in 2017, Ethereum has flushed out excessive speculation, while increases in addresses used reflect the accelerating digitalization of money.

Akin to Ethereum at the start of this year, the [sic] Bitcoin began 2017 around $1,000 and peaked just below $20,000. Ethereum could stay within the $2,000- $4,000 range since May roughly until October and maintain a 2017 Bitcoin-like flight plan," as stated in the Bloomberg Crypto Outlook bulletin.

In the perspective of six months, we can agree with this forecast. But the question is still open as to whether growth will begin after the current consolidation in the range of 31082.82 - 41980.24 or after a stronger decline.

Other data suggests that the price of BTC/USD may not fall below $30,000 during the current correction.

So, according to CryptoQuant, a popular online data analysis tool for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, the number of BTC outflow transactions from spot exchanges has reached a maximum in a year. This outflow is often seen as a very bullish sign for the price.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin's price falls on Thursday, en route to the red dotted support at 31,082.82. You should be careful here since a good buy entry point can be formed in the event of a rebound or a false breakout of this border.






Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021