Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Do cryptocurrencies have regulation?



Do cryptocurrencies have a lack of regulation and what kind of supervision is best suited for this new and complex digital space? These topics were discussed at various hearings on cryptocurrency, which were held by the House of Representatives Committee on Financial Services.

One of the points that cause controversy is an attempt to determine what different cryptocurrencies are. Kristin Parker, a partner at Reed Smith LLP stated that an important detail that needs to be decided is which category of assets cryptocurrencies belong to.

It is important to pay attention to the basic characteristics of the token, including any token issues, in order to determine whether it is a security, a commodity, or neither. In addition, it is necessary to study the facts in each of the specific cases.

It's much easier if one will only deal with the two of the most popular cryptocurrencies, namely Bitcoin and Ethereum.

It is worth noting that Bitcoin and Ethereum are commodities. Peter Van Valkenburgh, Director of Research at Coin Center, explained that crypto assets belong to investment contracts, and their issuance and trading are regulated by the SEC.

He noted that Bitcoin is the world's first digital commodity, to which American investors are turning to hedge against inflation.

Moreover, the federal government does not have to intervene and support the cryptocurrency market during previous periods of volatility.

The main issues discussed were the presence of hedge funds in the crypto space. The problem with the participation of hedge funds in cryptocurrency is that they have the ability to trade in any direction using leverage.

The situation is complicated by the fact that regulators are having a hard time when it comes to the positions of private funds in cryptocurrency since there is no formalized way to find out how many hedge funds are in cryptocurrency. And this creates a systemic risk.

Thus, financial experts have raised the issue of the need for new regulators in the crypto market, highlighting the confusion and lack of supervision.

This lack of regulatory clarity is hurting retail investors, as well as creating confusion when introducing new products to the market.

There were many issues related to stable coins and the lack of regulation.

Goldstein noted that the CBDC Central Bank's digital currency is one of the solutions to the risks associated with stable coins.

Speaking about CBDC, Sarah Hammer, Managing Director of the Stevens Center for Finance Innovation at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, said that the greatest risk will be related to confidentiality.




Irina Yanina
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for July 2, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Twitter's CEO Jack Dorsey has again dismissed the suggestion to buy Ethereum, despite the platform's actions related to ETH-based NFT tokens.

The social media platform announced a giveaway via Rarible, an NFT platform using the Ethereum Blockchain network to mint digital collectible tokens.

However, despite Twitter having released 140 NFT transactions on Ethereum, Dorsey apparently remains solely loyal to Bitcoin.

Following the news on NFT tokens, Twitter user Packanimal suggested it was "only a matter of time before" Dorsey would invest in Ethereum, to which the CEO simply replied "No".

The crypto community then reacted vigorously to Dorsey's three-letter approach to Ethereum, with Cinneamhaim Ventures' Adam Cochran criticizing Twitter CEO for "still being maxi BTC" while Twitter "prints Ethereum-based NFT on Rarible."

Dorsey, who is also the co-founder and CEO of the cryptocurrency-friendly digital payments company Square, previously expressed his loyalty to Bitcoin itself by stating in a 2019 tweet, "I only have Bitcoin." At the Bitcoin 2021 conference in early June, he said, "Bitcoin changes absolutely everything. [...] I don't think there is anything more favorable to people all over the world. "

Early Bitcoin supporter Dorsey repeatedly argued that Bitcoin would be the only currency on the Internet from at least 2018. It comes at a time when some of the biggest Bitcoiners admit that Ethereum could eventually replace Bitcoin as the world's largest cryptocurrency.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has hit the 61% Fibonacci retracement at the level of $2,228, but the rally was capped and the Shooting Star candlestick pattern was made at the top of the rally. Currently, the market is testing the technical support seen at the level of $2,043. The momentum is now weak and negative, so any violation of the level of $2,043 will likely expose the level of $1,941 for a test again.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $2,667
WR2 - $2,446
WR1 - $2,091

Weekly Pivot - $1,898
WS1 - $1,514
WS2 - $1,323
WS3 - $946


Trading Recommendations:
Ethereum has lost more than 50% of the recent gains from the lows of March 2020 and now is currently in the counter-trend corrective cycle. The next long-term target for bears is seen at the level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave up) and $1,420 ( January 2018 swing high). The up trend is resumed when the level of min. $3,000 is clearly violated.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for July 2, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Crypto trading platforms in India still struggle to open accounts with financial institutions, according to media publications. While there is no cryptocurrency ban in India, banks are said to operate under the advice of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), avoiding cryptocurrency exchanges.

In May, the RBI clarified its position on the matter, stating that there is no ban on banks from operating crypto exchanges. Indeed, the Supreme Court of India has overturned a previous RBI rule that prevented banks from offering accounts to cryptocurrency trading platforms.

Lack of access to banking services causes major disruptions, such as limiting the scope of instant settlements.

As banks exercise restraint, crypto exchanges in India are starting to consider alternative payment service providers. Working with payment processing companies is becoming a suitable substitute for platforms looking to continue to offer cryptocurrency / fiat pairs.

Smaller payment platforms like Mumbai-based Airpay reportedly provide instant transfer services for Binance-owned exchanges such as Coinswitch and WazirX. However, given the estimated 15 million cryptocurrency investors in India, such payment channels are likely to be insufficient.

To deal with the situation, major platforms such as WazirX must suspend crypto / fiat trading on certain days, allowing only peer-to-peer (P2P) transactions. Some other exchanges reportedly resort to manual settlement of bank deposits and withdrawals.


Technical Market Outlook:
After the BTC/USD pair was capped at 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $36,610, the bears managed to push the prices back under the technical support seen at $33,602. The new local low was made at the level of $32, 565. The momentum is decreasing and it is hovering around the neutral level of fifty points. Please notice the price is approaching the short-term trend line support as well. Any violation of the level of $32,565 will likely push the momentum back into the negative territory. The key mid-term technical support is still located at $29,187.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $42,645
WR2 - $39,211
WR1 - $35,772

Weekly Pivot - $32,390
WS1 - $29,147
WS2 - $25,680
WS3 - $22,298


Trading Recommendations:
The bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Should you bet on Ethereum over Bitcoin as the best crypto asset?



Some analysts are sure that in the long term, Ethereum can be much more profitable and promising than Bitcoin. Over the year, the crypto asset has grown by a thousand percent, and Bitcoin has grown by 300%. Yes, it is stupid to deny that the growth of Ethereum was stunning, but it is also very volatile.

Although volatility is inherent in all crypto assets, some investors are looking for new assets for the long term, ceasing to pay attention to Bitcoin. Goldman Sachs believes that Ethereum is a better asset, safer for the environment than Bitcoin. If we look at the long-term perspective, then Ethereum will beat Bitcoin in all respects.

Bitcoin is just a decentralized volatile digital asset, Ethereum has its own proprietary network that allows you to instantly execute smart contracts. This is a fully equipped working platform that can perform various economic tasks in a digital format.

The Ethereum network is already supported by many cryptographic applications, this includes token-based trading exchanges, various platforms for lending, and the digital world of NFT, which allows influencers and media personalities to monetize their work.

Ethereum is a transactional network that also charges a certain commission for each transaction processed. All these factors a priori make Ether an economic asset that generates income. The cost of Ethereum can grow with the development and growth of its network, and not just the cost of a digital token as such.

According to the statements of the creator of Ethereum Vitalik Buterin, the Ethereum protocol will be changed from the proof-of-work model to the proof-of-stake model in the near future. This will make the crypto asset even more valuable and desirable as a platform for decentralized financing. Proof-of-stake is the future of crypto technologies.




Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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How to trade BTC/USD now with minimal risk

There have been no significant volatility drivers on the cryptocurrency market for over a month, apart from the Chinese ban. Therefore, globally, nothing changes from day to day, and each subsequent daily candle clearly confirms the medium-term forecast.

I will repeat this once again (the market situation leaves no other choice): the price is working out a wide sideways range between the support level at 31,082.82 (red dotted line) and resistance at 41,980.24.

In fact, someone is driving the price in the range of $30,000 - $40,000 per coin. The question is why? It is very likely that a major player, one or more, is gaining position, expecting further growth. And since the sidewall is wide, this position is probably large, it is only possible to get it at more or less favorable prices.

Hence, there is still a conclusion about the belief of large market participants in cryptocurrency, a phase of technical consolidation of the market, supported by a temporary lull.

What happens after the Chinese ban? Everyone who got scared, everyone who bought high with a shoulder, left the market. For those who are stronger and with more capital, the price below 30,000 was not allowed. We have seen this many times on unsuccessful attempts to break through the level of 31,082.82 (red dotted line).

Meanwhile, the "great mining migration" is currently happening worldwide. Analytical platform Glassnode released a fresh report today showing that the Bitcoin hash rate has stabilized after 10 consecutive days of price declines. The worst impact of China's recent crackdown on mining could go away, Glassnode said.

Also, according to Glassnode, the average Bitcoin hash rate (over a 7-day period) on Tuesday (June 29, 2021) was 90.6 EH/s, which is slightly higher than Monday (June 28, 2021), equal to 90.5 EH/s. But this data is still half the peak level reached in mid-May.

There is also information that the revenue from Bitcoin and ether mining has fallen by almost 50% over the past month. The decrease in the hash rate of the network of the two leading cryptocurrencies subsequently led to a decrease in the profitability of the miner, as the block generation time increased.

China's crackdown on crypto mining is seen by many analysts as a welcome move and believes it will help the Bitcoin network become more decentralized. Microstrategy CEO Michael Saylor called China's actions a trillion-dollar mistake.

Probably, taking advantage of this situation, the calm and the low price, the big players continue to gain position. The technical picture allows us to draw two conclusions: the lateral borders 30,000 - 40,000 are strong enough, and over time, one of them will be broken.

Everything inside the corridor looks very "torn". Local levels are stitched in all directions, moreover, "where you don't poke, there is a level." As we can see, it is risky to trade inside the wide side. If you trade with small stops, they will often be wiped out. And if strong highs-lows of the corridor are taken out, they will be huge and the profit will not be worth the risk.

Therefore, I think that it is best to trade Bitcoin now with a rebound from the sideways borders at 31,082.82 - 41,980.24 or a breakout, but it is not known when it will happen. Yes, it is a long time to wait for the entry point, but it is not as risky as trying to "pinch" a small profit within this range.






Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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ETH and XRP are bullish, LTC sags behind major support: Forecasts

The cryptocurrency market continues to recover from a massive collapse in mid-June. Major coins are approaching important levels and gaining volume to break out downward trend positions and further move up. Despite the growing positive sentiment, Bitcoin and altcoins are subject to local corrections and fluctuate near important levels. The total cryptocurrency capitalization sank 2% but managed to stay at $1.4 trillion.

The main altcoin expectedly slipped to the local support level around $2,100. The current correction was necessary and the cryptocurrency bounced off the intermediate support zone. Despite the bullish signals, ETH can still sink to the level of $2,000, after which it will continue to move to $2,300. However, as of 13:00 UTC, the asset has completely won back the recent fall and is quoted at $2,130. At the same time, the volume of daily trading dipped to $28.4 billion, and the local dynamics of price movement show a downward movement. At the same time, bullish signals are visible on the RSI index, which remains below the 50 mark, and the Stochastic Oscillator has formed a bullish crossover. Despite this, the coin does not show a reversal, but in the medium term, there is a chance to break through the downward sloping resistance line. This will lead to a rapid movement to the area of the $2,500 mark and further acceleration to the $3,000 - $3,300 corridor.



The Ripple token continues to move along the downward channel, showing no prospects for a breakout of the difficult level. The cryptocurrency conquered the round support level of $0.7 but rebounded to the local support zone around $0.66. Despite the lack of prospects for growth, the technical indicators of the coin indicate a possible bullish breakout. The Stochastic Oscillator has formed a bullish crossover in the 6K region, which could be a key factor in the breakout of the downward trend channel. In this case, the coin will continue to move towards $0.8 and, bypassing the local resistance zone, may try to break through $1.



The situation around LTC remains uncertain. The coin still slipped below the level of $140, but it sank only by $3, and buyers began to push the coin back. The technical indicators of the asset indicate the imminent success of this enterprise. The two-hour dynamics of the price movement indicate an increase in the price of the coin, and the stochastic formed a bullish intersection. The RSI index indicates that the optimal point for entering the asset has been overcome, and soon the cryptocurrency may be overbought. Despite this, the LTC/USD pair shows good daily trading volumes, which together with the local dynamics will help the asset to climb to the $140 mark.



The news background around the cryptocurrency market is beginning to stabilize. For example, the founder of the crypto bank Galaxy Digital, Mike Novogratz, said that the move of mining from China would be a positive development for cryptocurrencies. The news that software company NCR and crypto investment firm NYDIG have announced a partnership became vital news for the entire community. The companies plan to open access to Bitcoin to customers of 650 US banks, which is equivalent to 24 million customers. The market continues to accumulate the necessary volumes, the space for speculation decreases, digital assets are approaching important points, which indicates an imminent attempt to launch a bullish trend.





Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin Hot Forecast for 1st of July

BTC retraced yesterday.
Support found around $33,000.
Next target at $40,000


Bitcoin price analysis is bullish for today as the market has retraced over the past 24 hours. The bulls are getting ready to push the market higher to reach the $40,000 major resistance.

The overall market trades with mixed results over the last 24 hours. Bitcoin has decreased by 2.76 percent, while Ethereum remains almost flat. The rest of the altcoin market trades with similar, low volatility results.

BTC/USD is trading in a range of $33,112 – $35,197, indicating a moderate amount of volatility. Trading volume has increased by 16.12 percent and totals $38.8 billion. The total market cap stands at around $632.4 billion, resulting in a market dominance of 45.3 percent.

On the 4-hour chart, we can see the Bitcoin price moving lower over the past 24 hours to establish a higher low from which to move higher later this week.

The overall market trades within a neutral price action movement over the past weeks with strong support around $31,000 and resistance around $38,000. Last week, we saw BTC/USD retest the $31,000 support and set a slightly higher low, indicating further upside.

This price action development resulted in Bitcoin moving higher over the past few days and set further indicating that bulls are gaining momentum. Yesterday Bitcoin saw a slight retracement to the $33,000 mark, where a higher low could be established.

The next target to the upside is the $38,000 resistance, which, if broken, could lead to a lot more upside over the following weeks. However, we could still see further downside over the next 24 hours if the $33,000 support fails to hold.




Jan Novotny
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Trading Signal for BTC/USD (Bitcoin) for July 01 - 02, 2021: Sell below $35,250



In a 4-hour chart, Bitcoin BTC / USD is trading below the 21 SMA and 200 EMA, adding pressure to the strong 6/8 Murray resistance. The bias is still bearish as shown by the eagle indicator.

On June 29, the cryptocurrency was about to challenge resistance of $ 37,500, it reached a few pips below and failed to consolidate. BTC was also trading above the 200 EMA for a few hours, but the downward pressure took it back below key level of $35,000.

For some traders, this upward movement that we saw was seen as an opportunity to liquidate their losing positions or take profit, and wait for a bottom in the $30,000 zone and then buy again.

In view of the fact that Bitcoin has a strong resistance zone, it is likely that there will be a bearish movement in the next few days to the zone of $31,250.

If the panic takes hold of the market, BTC price could fall to the key support and psychological level of $25,000 that is the 4/8 of murray.

Our outlook suggests that BTC remains bearish in the near term as long as it holds below 6/8 murray. Therefore, any bounce will be an opportunity to sell with targets at $ 30,000 and $ 25,000.


Support and Resistance Levels for July 01 - 02, 2021
Resistance (3) 37,165
Resistance (2) 35,913
Resistance (1) 34,891

Support (1) 32,532
Support (2) 31,285
Support (3) 29,196





Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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BTC sank below $34,000 and accumulates volumes for retesting $36,000: Forecast

Bitcoin started the current week with a positive attitude, which was the reason for the successful consolidation of the asset at around $34,000. On June 30, the coin moved to the next difficult milestone in the area of $36,600 but failed to gain a foothold above it. As a result, the coin went on correction and began the first day of July with a slight drop.

As of 11:00 UTC, Bitcoin is quoted at around $33,200. Over the past day, the asset fell by 4%, after it could not stay in the support zone at around $34,000. This scenario was indicated by the main technical indicators of the asset. On July 1, BTC fluctuates and does not show a clear trend to rise or fall. The local dynamics of the price movement of Bitcoin indicate instability and tug of war in the area from +0.5% to -0.5%. This local uncertainty scenario is aggravated by low trading volumes, which do not exceed the $29 billion mark.

Despite breaking through the key support zone, BTC found a solid bottom near the local limit of $32,200. The next main support point for Bitcoin in a downward movement will be the figure of $30,000. However, as of 11:00 UTC, the asset has pushed off from the local support level and is moving towards $34,000. At the same time, the main technical indicators indicate a clear bearish mood. The MACD indicator went beyond the red line, and the RSI indicator jumped above 80, which indicates that the asset is clearly overbought. Given all this, you should not count on the protracted growth of Bitcoin. Most likely, the coin will climb above the $34,000 mark, after which it will resume fluctuations in a narrow range.



Long-term indicators indicate a change of movement and an increasing bullish mood. This is evidenced by a significant decrease in offers for Bitcoin. At the same time, the volume of cryptocurrency on non-custodial wallets continues to grow. This suggests that long-term holders continue to accumulate coins, and the local sale among medium-term users has come to naught. There is a redistribution of Bitcoins on the market. This was evidenced by a record decrease in the number of unique BTC addresses and social activity. In the medium term, this will benefit the market and Bitcoin, since most of the coins will be in the hands of long-term investors. This will help protect the market from manipulations and impulsive decisions of the retail audience. However, the downside of the situation is that at the next stage of growth, BTC will count on retail traders. This is stated by the analysts of the world's leading banks, who agree that at this stage, the interest of institutions in Bitcoin has fallen significantly.

The market is at the stage of recovery and accumulation of the necessary volumes. Given the relative calm of the news background and the positive mood of investors, we can expect an attempt to launch a bullish trend in the near future. However, for this, Bitcoin needs to jump back to the $34,000 mark and successfully test the $36,600 milestone to exit the correction corridor. Given the lack of interest on the part of institutions and record-low options for Bitcoin, it will be difficult to carry out this task without a powerful impulse.





Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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BTC analysis for July 01,.2021 - First target reached at $33.000

Technical Analysis:


BTC has been trading downside as I expected. The price reached my downside target at $33.000.


Trading recommendation:
Watch for potential selling opportunities on the rallies with the next downside targets at the price of $30.000 and $29.193.

Stochastic is in oversold zone and fresh bull cross, which is sign that there is potential for the rally first and then downside continuation.





Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021