Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin will continue to fall in price!



Bitcoin continues to be close to its local highs around the $31,100 and $29,873 levels. In the coming days, the cryptocurrency may overcome these levels, since the fundamental background is now so negative that it is very difficult for bitcoin to find reasons for growth, and for investors to find reasons for new purchases. For example, many crypto experts believe that the fun in China is just beginning. Chinese miners are just starting to disconnect their equipment from the network and are going to transport it abroad. However, all these actions will take some time. This means that a huge amount of Chinese mining capacities will soon be disconnected from mining, respectively, the network hashrate may sink even more, and bitcoin may lose several thousand more dollars in value. Experts believe that by the end of June, up to 90% of miners in China will be shut down, although some say later dates. The Chinese authorities have given all mining companies and private miners 1-2 weeks to shut down equipment. In China, many cryptocurrency experts are outraged by this decision by the Chinese authorities. They note that many mining companies have worked in accordance with the law and have all the necessary documents, as well as guarantees, and now they are simply kicked out of the country. Foundry Vice President Kevin Zhang notes that most of the equipment that was used to mine cryptocurrencies in China is not adapted to work abroad, as it does not comply with Western standards. Zhang also notes that Chinese miners abroad will face a number of other problems, ranging from hosting to deposit requirements. In addition, not only miners are going to leave China, but also manufacturers of mining equipment. For example, the largest miner manufacturer Bitmain announced the suspension of the sale of equipment and announced a move from China abroad. Thus, almost all participants in the cryptocurrency segment will leave China in the near future, and those who remain will actually be banned from operations with bitcoin. Naturally, such news clearly does not add optimism to investors. Of course, when all the miners move to other countries and turn on their equipment again, the market can experience a surge of optimism, but that will be later, not now. Given such news, it is now much more reasonable to expect a new drop in bitcoin quotes.



Technically, in the 4-hour time frame, bitcoin quotes fell to the support levels of $31,100 and $29,873 and rebounded from them. This rebound can trigger an upward movement in the sideways channel $31,100 - $41,000. Thus, at this time, it is possible to expect the growth of bitcoin quotes up to the level of $41,000. However, BTC may also return to support levels and try to break them again.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Shares of companies associated with Bitcoin will also decline



The first cryptocurrency in the world tried to start a new round of upward movement inside the side channel $31,100 - $40,700 on Wednesday. But by the end of the day, the quotes returned to their original positions, and today, they are moving down altogether. Thus, today the level of $31,100 can be worked out once again, which, we recall, is not only the lower border of the channel, but also an important level of support, which so far protects bitcoin from a new collapse. However, from our point of view, this level will still be overcome, possibly, in the near future. The problem for bitcoin is the same. It has a very weak fundamental background. We have repeatedly said that the Chinese authorities continue to tighten regulation of the cryptocurrency sphere. In the 4 regions of the country, mining is already completely prohibited, and experts expect that by autumn up to 90% of China's miners will leave the country or cease their activities. In addition, Beijing has banned all banks and financial institutions from providing any services related to cryptocurrencies. On the other side of the scale, the only positive news are the legalization of bitcoin by El Salvador and new purchases of MicroStrategy coins. The balance is clearly not in favor of positive news. In addition, the markets are now clearly awaiting news from the United States, where in the near future several bills may also be passed that will tighten the sphere of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. In particular, the Joe Biden administration proposes to impose income tax on transactions with cryptocurrencies, as well as oblige all cryptocurrency companies to transfer information on transactions over $10,000 to the Internal Revenue Service. Thus, it is the States that can deal another blow to Bitcoin, from which it may not recover for a long time. We believe that the chances of overcoming the $31,100 level are now very high, so Bitcoin may well continue to move down. And along with it, the shares of companies that are most strongly associated with bitcoin may continue to fall. For example, shares of MicroStrategy, which recently bought bitcoins for another $500 million and is going to raise another $1 billion by selling its own shares in order to invest this money in bitcoin, are now trading at $553 apiece. And in mid-April, at its peak, the price was $881. Coinbase cryptocurrency exchange shares, traded on NASDAQ, currently cost $226 apiece, although at the very beginning of the listing just a month ago they were trading at $380. The shares of the cryptocurrency trading bank Galaxy Digital are now at around $16 per share, although it reached $37 in mid-April the price. Thus, bitcoin is not only getting cheaper, it is also pulling down the shares of those companies whose activities are now firmly associated with bitcoin among investors.



In technical terms, bitcoin fell to the support level of $31,100 and to the previous local low of $29,700, and is still not far from them. Formally, the price can already turn up and start a new round of movement to the upper border of the side channel - $40,700. However, it looks like Bitcoin is aiming to break the $31,100 level. And the consolidation of quotes below the level of $31,100 may signal the readiness of the cryptocurrency for a new fall. Many cryptocurrency experts are in favor of the main cryptocurrency continuing to fall in price and may fall to $19,000 - $24,000 per coin. Some even predict the figure of $10,000.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading plan for Bitcoin for June 24, 2021



Technical outlook:
Bitcoin managed to rally towards $35,000 levels yesterday after printing lows around $28,600 mark early this week. Structurally, bears are looking poised to produce a much deeper correction in the next few weeks. The crypto is expected to produce a pullback or counter trend rally towards at least $41,000 mark, before finding resistance again.

Bitcoin is seen to be trading around $32,600 levels at this point in writing and is expected to continue higher after a shallow correction towards $30,000/500 levels today. Traders might continue to hold long positions initiated yesterday and look to add more around $31,000 levels. Immediate support is seen at $28,500 mark, while resistance comes in around $43,000 levels respectively.

The recent boundary which is being worked upon is between $65,000 and $28,600 levels respectively. A decent pullback rally would push through $48,000 levels , which is also the past support turned resistance zone. We shall turn bearish again around those levels, going forward.


Trading plan:
Remain long, stop @ 26,000, target is $43,000 and $48,000.

Good luck!





Oscar Ton
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin Bullish Reversal Pattern

Bitcoin has changed little in the last hours, so it could decrease a little to retest the buyers before jumping higher. The price has printed a bullish reversal pattern, BTC/USD could develop an upside movement soon.

The price of Bitcoin has signaled that the decline is over and that the bulls could take full control soon. In the short term, BTC/USD could move sideways trying to attract more buyers.


BTC/USD UPSIDE IN CARDS!


Bitcoin has registered only a false breakdown with great separation below 30,066 static support and under the S2 (28,764) signaling that the downside is over.

It has come back above the descending pitchfork's upper median line (uml). It could slip lower to retest the S1 (32,174.59) before developing a strong leg higher.


BITCOIN OUTLOOK!
The pin bar (Hammer) signaled that the price of Bitcoin could give birth to a new swing higher. A temporary consolidation could bring new long opportunities.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin: Fall was redeemed, consolidation continues

As noted in yesterday's review, the level of 31,082.82 (red dotted line) will locally decide the Bitcoin situation. At the time of writing on Tuesday, the breakdown candle was bearish but by the end of the day, the fall was redeemed.

Yes, the May 19 minimum has been updated. But the daily candle on June 22 closed bullish, above 31,082.82 (red dotted line), with a long lower shadow. And support at 28,392.99 was not even tested for strength.

What does this mean? Below the level of 31,082.82, there is a strong player or several who do not let the price go down. Large investors almost unanimously say that now, "at the bottom", bitcoin needs to be bought. The technical picture does not contradict this.

For example, the funds of the famous crypto advocate Cathie Wood redoubled their efforts to buy back the fall. According to the latest reports, Ark Invest took advantage of the Bitcoin downturn to buy related assets.

The online ETF Ark Generation bought over a million additional shares of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust for $29.3 billion. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust provides institutional investors with indirect access to Bitcoin in a regulated environment.

After dropping nearly 20% over the past five trading sessions, GBTC shares reversed momentum on Tuesday and closed up 1.12% at $28.01. Following its purchase on Tuesday, the Ark Generation fund now owns over 8.5 million shares worth $238.8 million.

Cathie Wood of Ark Invest does not give up her belief in the future of Bitcoin. She also believes that the emergence of a Bitcoin ETF will completely change the dynamics of the market in favor of Bitcoin investors.

But so far, Ark Invest funds are actively investing in public cryptocurrency companies such as Coinbase. The investment company acquired 214,718 COIN shares for $47.7 million.

Ark Invest's recent purchase of COIN stock came through the world's most popular ETF, Ark Innovation. Ark currently owns 4.7 million shares of Coinbase with a total investment of over $1 billion.

Bitcoin whales do not waste time either. Earlier it was noted that while the main cryptocurrency is trading in the sideways range of 28,392.99 - 41,980.24, large investors are accumulating Bitcoins, as evidenced by the statistics on crypto-whale wallets.

Now, in the corridor of 28,392.99 - 41,980.24, BTC/USD is on its way to the level of 34,708.27. If it is broken, the price will move higher towards 38,610.88 (red dotted line).







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Market found the bottom: altcoins recover positions and approach local highs

This week has become very painful for the crypto community. The market failed to launch a bullish trend, and a correction began. The total capitalization of all coins sank to $1.1 trillion, and on June 23, cryptocurrencies have already reached local lows. However, over the past few hours, there has been a trend towards a reversal of the downward movement. Altcoins began to rise in price, bitcoin managed to climb to a safe mark, and the total market capitalization increased by 17%, to $1.4 trillion.

Ethereum indicators have resumed growth thanks to a combination of positive personal and general factors. The cryptocurrency dropped below the $2,000 mark and reached a record low level of social activity. This was due to the negative background around the crypto market and the uncertainty of retail investors. Like the entire market, ethereum hit the bottom, thanks to which it managed to push off and reverse the movement of quotes. Over the past day, the cryptocurrency has risen in price by 14% and again exceeded the mark of $2,000. Ethereum continues to fluctuate around $2,000, but, given the local trend in the market, it will gain a foothold above it. This is an extremely important milestone for private traders, who took it as a positive boost. The main indicators of the MACD and RSI indicate a local bullish mood. This is also evidenced by the two-hour analysis of the movement of ETH/USD quotes (+0.5). At the same time, daily trading volumes remain at an average level, around $35 billion, and show a sharp increase. In the near future, the asset will continue to recover its positions, and the main resistance zone for ETH will be around $2,500. Taking into account the upcoming London update and the low fees in the cryptocurrency network, reaching the local maximum will be a matter of time.



Against the background of the general euphoria, the Ripple token is actively restoring its position. The cryptocurrency found strong support in the area of $0.523 and pushed off from it. The coin successfully overcame the local correction zone near the $0.58 mark, but continued to move up. Over the past day, XRP has risen by 22.5%, and as of 14:00 UTC is quoted at $0.645. The total capitalization of the cryptocurrency has reached $30 billion, and daily trading volumes continue to grow. At the same time, the narrow dynamics of the movement of quotes remain positive (+1%), which indicates continued growth. Despite this, the RSI indicator shows a bearish mood, and you should not count on a long and steady growth of the cryptocurrency at the current stage. The same can be seen on the horizontal charts. In the near future, the cryptocurrency will try to reach the $0.7 mark, but everything will depend on the mood of investors and the situation with the news background.



Litecoin indicators also made a powerful jump and reached the level of $127. The nearest border for an assault is $130. The cryptocurrency has risen in price by 20% over the past day and shows excellent dynamics of the growth of quotes in a few hours. The main indicators of the asset's RSI and MACD foreshadow a short-term bullish mood, but in the longer term, the coin will experience problems. In the near future, the maximum that Litecoin can give is around $140. However, this scenario is possible if the market and investors are in a favorable mood.



It is obvious that after several high-profile collapses during this week, the cryptocurrency market has found the bottom. Having pushed off from it, the main coins began to show rapid growth, which will soon slow down significantly. This will be affected by the news background, the achievement of certain psychological thresholds, and the decline in social activity in cryptocurrency networks. An extremely important factor in the current recovery of cryptocurrencies was the complete recovery of the negative from China, which was supported by a positive announcement from the payment giants. Visa and PayPal partnered with Blockchain Capital, a venture fund that created a $300 million reserve fund. In the near future, the coins will continue to grow on the positive announcement, as well as due to favorable positions for entering the market.





Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Mining equipment prices dropped. Bitcoin retest $30,100

The fall in the Bitcoin exchange rate affects not only investors and speculators, but also companies engaged in the production of mining equipment.

Today, the company Bitmain Technologies Ltd. suspended sales of its mining solutions around the world, seeking to support prices after crypto-miners, fleeing from the repression in Beijing, threw out used mining rigs on the market.

The world's largest manufacturer of Bitcoin machines has told the local mining community that it has stopped selling new equipment after prices for high-end installations fell by about 75% since April. Delaying sales could help miners leaving the industry get better prices for mining machines that they previously used. But Bitmain, of course, does not think only about miners. The termination of new deliveries will allow for some time to support the prices of new equipment that remained on the market.

Bitcoin's problems began in May when the Chinese government called for a renewed crackdown on Bitcoin trading and mining. Local authorities in many Chinese cities have begun an active fight against Bitcoin. The ban on Bitcoin mining forces large miners to abandon their operations, which leads to turmoil in the cryptocurrency market, which is barely breathing after the May fall. In recent weeks, due to failures, the hash rate of the bitcoin network has fallen sharply. This suggests that the enthusiasm for digital assets is beginning to fade.



The latest news that major Chinese banks and financial institutions, including Alipay, are prohibited from dealing with cryptocurrencies from providing access to trading to exchanges and transfers, also does not please institutional investors who remain in the market.

As for the technical picture of Bitcoin, the next test of the $30,100 level was very difficult and stressful for buyers of the cryptocurrency. However, the bulls managed to keep this level under control and quickly returned the trading instrument higher. Now Bitcoin is aimed at the resistance of $36,300, and getting above which it is simply vital. Only in this case, the bulls will exhale a little, and the tension in the market will subside. If this is not possible in the near future, then the next return and test of the support of $30,100 will be a sad ending for those who gained positions in the corridor of $30,100 – $41,100. A break of $30,100 will quickly push BTC lower –to the lows of $25,800 and $21,700, which will lead to the departure from the market of another number of large investors who still somehow believe in the growth of cryptocurrencies. A return to the level of $21,700 will actually cover all the rapid growth of the trading instrument, which we observed in the first half of the year.

But while everyone puts an end to the industry, the largest cryptocurrency exchanges continue their growth and development. As it became known today, Coinbase is now registered as a cryptocurrency exchange to operate in Japan. The Japanese financial regulator has approved Coinbase to trade five cryptocurrencies. In a statement, Japan's top financial regulator said that Coinbase's application as a cryptocurrency exchange service provider has been approved. According to the FSA, it is allowed to use BTC, BCH, ETH, XLM, and LTC for trading. The approved entity is a Japanese subsidiary of Coinbase Global, listed on the Nasdaq exchange.





Jakub Novak
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BTC sank to January low and provoked institutional activity: analysis and forecasts

Bitcoin prices have been at a steep peak over the past two days, provoked by market distrust and the complete closure of mining in China. On June 22, the asset hovered near the $32,000 mark, not far from the main support zone. As a result, the cryptocurrency failed to stay above the border of $30,000, and the coin fell to $28,800. At the same time, the total capitalization of bitcoin has decreased to $550 billion. However, in the end, the market quickly pushed the asset to acceptable positions beyond the $30,000 mark.

As of 11:00 UTC, the first cryptocurrency rose by 7.5% and stopped at a value of $34,000. The total capitalization of bitcoin has again reached the mark of $640 billion, and the volume of daily trading is expected to increase sharply. The BTC/USD indicators did not have time to fall to the next support level in the region of $28,000. This suggests that the institutional audience of BTC was activated in time and began to buy off the fall of coins. This made it possible to break the bearish trend and arrange a local reversal of the movement. Bitcoin stopped near the mark of $34,200, but with further growth, the asset faced problems.

This is evidenced by CryptoQuant data, according to which the platform registered a record daily influx of Bitcoins since March 2020. Most of the coins are transferred by retailers, for whom the limit of $30,000 is a guarantee of security. When it broke through, the sale of the cryptocurrency was provoked, which was interrupted in time by major market players. For example, it became known that the investment company ARK Investment Management acquired more than 1 million shares of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust during the collapse of BTC quotes to $28,800. Thanks to this, the cryptocurrency managed to make a rebound to the safe zone, successfully overcoming the support zone in the area of $31,000.



The overall market sentiment continues to be mostly bearish. The daily MACD indicators and the stochastic oscillator do not show growth, and the RSI index is below 50. In a narrower perspective, the cryptocurrency will try to overcome the next resistance line in the region of $35,000. This is indicated by the bullish indicators of the MACD and RSI indicators. With a successful retest of this mark, BTC will face a correction zone in the area of $36,500. Given the local mood of investors, we can say that in the near future, the cryptocurrency can break through the mark of $35,000 and continue to move up.

Bitcoin will soon begin to increase momentum, as everything indicates that the market has found a bottom in the region of $28,800. This is reflected not only in the horizontal charts but also in the overall situation in the BTC network. In addition to record-breaking coin transfers on the exchange, Glassnode registered a record-low number of bitcoin addresses. Daily transaction figures fell to $1.2 million, while miner revenue fell by 4%. The first cryptocurrency adapts to the new operating conditions. This is understood by large companies that continue to hold and accumulate coins. Despite this, in the short term, bitcoin will have to overcome at least four points of resistance in order to finally turn the upward movement.





Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading Signal for Ethereum ETH/USD, for June 23 - 24, 2021: Key level $2,050



The Ethereum ETH / USD is trading below the 21 SMA and above the strong support of 2/8 Murray, rebounding after it fell to the level of $ 1,700.

This drop in cryptocurrencies is partly due to China's continued crackdown on Bitcoin mining and OTC transactions, added with prolonged technical weakness in the market. It triggered the crash of ETH and other cryptocurrencies.

Another major source of the cryptocurrency market slowdown that has been pressing for weeks is China's crackdown on cryptocurrency mining operations in the country. This has led to a substantial drop in the record hash rate to levels last seen in September 2020.

Ethereum fell to the zone of $1,700 loosing -15% after that $ 1,875 support level had been broken. Now it is trading at $ 1,994, close to the psychological level of 2,000, and very close to the strong bearish level.

The current trend continues to be bearish for the ETH / USD. As we can see in the chart, a consolidation above $ 2,050 or $ 2,100 will be a new opportunity to buy.

If Ethereum price fails to stay above the 21 SMA and the downtrend channel is expected to move down to the 1,700 zone and up to 1,500 in the short term.

Our recommendation is to wait for a break of the bearish channel and a consolidation above 2050, in order to be able to buy with targets in the resistance zone of the 200 EMA around 2450 and up to 4/8 of a murray at $ 2,500.


Support and Resistance Levels for June 23 – 24, 2021

Resistance (3) 2.341
Resistance (2) 2,169
Resistance (1) 2,048

Support (1) 1,877
Support (2) 1,716
Support (3) 1,584




Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin forms potential reversal pattern.

Bitcoin price broke below $30,000 level yesterday but the pressure by bears was short-lived and price soon after reversed and closed above $32,000.



Red rectangle - major resistance

Blue lines -bullish divergence

The Daily candlestick pattern for yesterday gave us a reversal hammer pattern. Followed by a strong up day today, increases the chances of a reversal. The RSI did not make a new lower low yesterday as price did. This bullish divergence is another sign that the downtrend is weakening. Of course bulls are still not in control of the trend. They will need to push price above the major resistance around $40,000-$41,000. Until then bears are in control of the trend. For yesterday's low to be a major low, bulls will need to break above the red rectangle resistance.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021