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    Thread: Cryptocurrency Analysis

    1. #2344 Collapse post
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      RIPPLE Price Analysis, 23 June

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      Ripple could be close to finding an important technical bottom as downside selling pressure towards the popular coin looks to be weakening. The daily time frame shows that the XRPUSD pair is fast approaching trendline support from a falling price channel around the 0.5000 level. Falling price channels are often considered to be bullish pattern so the XRPUSD pair could stage a technical bounce from the bottom of the pattern.

      The XRPUSD pair is only bullish while trading above the 0.6500 level, key resistance is found at the 0.7000 and the 0.8000 levels.

      If the XRPUSD pair trades below the 0.6500 level, sellers may test the 0.5000 and 0.4400 levels





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      Jan Novotny
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      Why are bitcoin prices still falling?

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      China's regulators, taking a tougher stance on cryptocurrencies, managed to partially explain this drop in bitcoin prices. However, Wall Street analysts believe that the new aggressive stance and statements of the US Fed on interest rates and monetary policy, as well as bond purchases, also play a key role.

      According to Matt Maley, Chief Market Strategist at Miller Tabak, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies should grow on their own over the years. However, they were pushed up by the Fed's measures over the last period of time. In other words, Wall Street analysts think that the stock market is the only asset class that has outperformed itself because of last year's massive stimulus programs.

      And since the Fed surprised investors on June 16 by announcing two potential interest rate hikes by the end of 2023, bitcoin prices have fallen by 16%, namely to the level of $ 32,000. Many market observers have suggested that the Fed is trying to reduce the heated asset prices.

      Bitcoin's price declined and reached the $ 29,458 mark on Tuesday as traders continued to consider Jerome Powell's speeches.

      In comparison to the all-time highs of $ 63,000 reached in mid-April, Bitcoin is down by almost 50%. The reasons for this were the measures taken by Chinese regulators against cryptocurrency mining in their country, as well as the negative tweets from Tesla's CEO Elon Musk about the harmful effects of bitcoin mining on the environment.

      So now that Bitcoin is below the level of $ 30,000, traders are preparing for the next wave of sales.

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      According to the forecasts of Western analysts, if the price falls below this level of $ 30,000, it will be a very bearish factor from the viewpoint of technical analysis.

      Thus, the level of $ 20,000, which many experts have recently pointed out, is not at all excluded. This will not mean that the bull market of cryptocurrency is over, instead, it will indicate that long positions can be gained from this price.




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      Irina Yanina
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      Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for June 23, 2021

      Crypto Industry News:
      The American investment management company VanEck has applied for the creation of a new Bitcoin futures investment fund with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

      According to the filed prospectus, the new 'Bitcoin Strategy Fund' will invest in Bitcoin futures as well as combined investment vehicles and exchange products that provide exposure to Bitcoin.

      The fund will have exposure to certain Bitcoin futures through its wholly owned subsidiary operating in the Cayman Islands.

      "The subsidiary has the same investment objective as the fund and will follow the same general investment rules and restrictions, except that unlike a fund, it can invest freely in Bitcoin futures," the prospectus notes.

      The fund's portfolio will be managed by Gregory Krenzer, Deputy Portfolio Manager for VanEck Commodity Index Strategy and Head of Active Trading with extensive experience in commodities, commodity equities and emerging markets. Krenzer has been with Van Eck Associates Corporation since 1994 and has over 25 years of experience in international and financial markets.


      Technical Market Outlook:
      The BTC/USD pair has bounced from the level of $29,187, which was just above the technical support located at $28,930. The market made a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern and the price has retraced 38% of the last wave down in V-shape reversal. The recent local high was made at the level of $34,378 and the next technical resistance is seen at the level of $34,843. The 50% Fibonacci retracement is seen at the level of $35,188. The nearest technical support is located at $32,156.

      Weekly Pivot Points:
      WR3 - $47,340
      WR2 - $44,234
      WR1 - $39,697

      Weekly Pivot - $36,451
      WS1 - $31,670
      WS2 - $28,714
      WS3 - $24,054


      Trading Recommendations:
      Even despite the recent correction the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).

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      Sebastian Seliga
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      Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for June 23, 2021

      Crypto Industry News:
      As China battles cryptocurrency mining, prices for graphics cards from major GPU vendors such as Nvidia and Asus are becoming more affordable.

      Some graphics cards have dropped by up to two-thirds on Chinese e-commerce platforms after Sichuan Province shut down its mining operations, according to today's South China Morning Post (SCMP) report.

      The flagship card of the Asus RTX 3060 was reportedly lowered to $ 730 on Monday from a peak of $ 2,100 in May on the Tmall website operated by JD.com.

      The Nvidia Quadro P1000, the less advanced card, dropped to $ 380 at the JD.com franchise store, down from a peak of around $ 470 in early May.

      The fall in prices coincides with a major sell-off in the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin plunging to $ 32,500 in the wake of another wave of FUD in China.

      The Chinese central bank recalled the ban on cryptocurrency trading, urging banks and payment institutions to suspend services for accounts related to cryptocurrency trading activities.

      After banning cryptocurrency trading in 2017, the Chinese government tightened its stance on cryptocurrencies, starting a serious fight against cryptocurrency mining. The latest news concerns a series of mining bans in several major cryptocurrency mines in China, including hydroelectric provinces such as Sichuan and Yunnan. Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and Qinghai authorities also ordered mining operations to be shut down.


      Technical Market Outlook:
      The ETH/USD pair has hit the technical support located at the level of $1,729 and bounced towards the level of $2,00, which is a technical resistance for the price. The recent price action looks like a V-shape reversal price pattern, nevertheless the bulls were capped at the level of $2,043 and the Pin Bars are being made just below the 38% Fibonacci retracement at $2,064. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $2,102.

      Weekly Pivot Points:
      WR3 - $3,146
      WR2 - $2,878
      WR1 - $2,557

      Weekly Pivot - $2,297
      WS1 - $1,962
      WS2 - $1,702
      WS3 - $1,348


      Trading Recommendations:
      Ethereum has lost more than 50% of the recent gains from the lows of March 2020 and now is currently in the counter-trend corrective cycle. The next long-term target for bears is seen at the level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave up) and $1,420 ( January 2018 swing high). The up trend is resumed when the level of min. $3,000 is clearly violated.

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      Sebastian Seliga
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      Chinese miners are not discouraged by the actions of the authorities

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      The fundamental background for Bitcoin remains very weak and even downright negative. China continues to tighten legislation and prohibit mining on its territory, as well as any speculation in cryptocurrencies. Thus, Chinese financial institutions are now busy sending notifications to their clients that if they are noticed in transactions in cryptocurrency, their accounts may be blocked. And miners from at least four regions are assembling their equipment and going to transport it to other countries. However, the miners themselves are not discouraged. There are still a huge number of countries in the world where mining farms can be located. It is true that in the case of mining equipment in the country, there should also be no problems with electricity, which simply takes a huge amount for mining. Of course, miners pay for energy, but in principle it should be enough in the country where the mining equipment will be located. Miner Brandon Arvanaghi said in an interview that regular attacks by the authorities on Bitcoin only prove its importance and viability, so this is a good sign for the main cryptocurrency in the world. The former employee of the Gemini exchange believes that at this time many countries around the world are building consensus on Bitcoin, and the actions of the Chinese authorities are a good factor for Bitcoin in the long term. The miner compares the rise of bitcoin to a video game, where you go through various obstacles and then succeed. The same thing, according to Arvanaghi, awaits bitcoin, which sooner or later will establish itself as a means of preserving capital. Arvanaghi believes that due to the actions of the Chinese authorities, the role of the country where the largest number of miners is concentrated may shift to the United States, where the states of Texas and Florida are already able to offer economically beneficial conditions for the production of cryptocurrencies. However, it is hard to believe in such rosy prospects that Arvanaghi drew. Bitcoin is indeed experiencing ups and downs, but at the same time it continues to develop and conquer the world. However, it should be remembered that although bitcoin is decentralized, many countries of the world can simply ban it. Of course, here we are hardly talking about the United States, where it circulates in the form of derivatives on the stock market. However, as we can see, the PRC does not take into account the prospects and opportunities of the cryptocurrency segment at all and simply tightens the regulation of bitcoin and other digital assets, since it sees them as a threat to the stability of its economy and financial system.

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      Technically, in the 4-hour timeframe, bitcoin quotes fell to the support levels of $31,100 and $29,873 and rebounded from them. This rebound can trigger an upward movement in the sideways channel $31,100 - $41,000. Thus, at this time, you can count on the growth of bitcoin quotes up to the level of $41,000.




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      Paolo Greco
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    6. #2339 Collapse post
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      Bitcoin fell down again

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      The first cryptocurrency in the world fell down again on Tuesday. This time, the bitcoin quotes dropped even lower than during the fall in May. At the moment, the price dropped to $29,150 per coin. So yesterday, Bitcoin worked out two important support levels at once - $31,100 and $29,700. And these levels really supported the "digital gold" quotes, which went back up after they worked out. Earlier, we said that Bitcoin may be inside a side channel capped at $40,700 and $31,100. It was after the rebound from the upper border of this channel that the fall began, which led the cryptocurrency to the lower border. Thus, considering that bitcoin has already bounced from the lower border, it can be assumed that quotes will grow towards the upper border of the channel. But given the fundamental background, it will be extremely difficult for Bitcoin to do this. Recall that the last couple of days, the entire cryptocurrency world has been discussing new tightening in China, where the Central Bank has banned commercial banks and other financial institutions from participating in transactions with cryptocurrencies. In addition, there is already a ban on cryptocurrency mining in four regions of the country, and Chinese journalists cite a figure of 90%. This is how many miners can leave China or simply end their activities due to the ban on mining cryptocurrencies. All of this news is really bad news for Bitcoin. As you can see, no matter how hard MicroStrategy tries, purchasing bitcoins in batches does not help the bitcoin rate itself that much. This is not surprising, since bitcoin is an exclusively investment instrument. Accordingly, if the price for it falls, no matter how trite it may sound, demand also decreases. It even turns out to be a vicious circle. The demand decreases and therefore the price decreases. The price goes down and therefore the demand goes down. In general, bitcoin remains an instrument, the value of which depends solely on how strong faith in it and in its further growth is at a given time. Considering that the fundamental background is deteriorating day by day, it is hardly possible now to count on a serious strengthening of "digital gold". We said earlier that we are sticking to a "correctional scenario." In the current environment, Bitcoin can only rely on technical growth, for example, inside a sideways channel. In general, Bitcoin can spend the next couple of years in consolidation, during which it will probably fall in value more than once. Recall that after the end of an upward trend for several years, bitcoin always goes into the shadows and can lose up to 90% of its maximum value achieved in this trend.

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      In technical terms, bitcoin fell to the support level of $31,100 and to the last local low of $29,700, and now it can turn up and start a new round of movement to the upper limit of the side channel – $40,700. Thus, a rebound from the level of $31,100 will trigger the beginning of a new round of upward movement inside the flat. The consolidation of bitcoin quotes under the level of $31,100 may signal the readiness of the cryptocurrency for a new fall. Recall that many crypto experts speak in favor of the fact that the main cryptocurrency will continue to fall in price and may fall to $19,000 - $24,000 per coin.




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      Paolo Greco
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      Why does China have such a tough policy towards Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies?

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      China's tough policy on cryptocurrencies has led to a drop in cryptocurrency prices. China is ratcheting up regulatory pressure on cryptocurrencies again, but now it seems like about 90% of the country's bitcoin mining capacity will be shut down, according to a Global Times report published by the Chinese state. Last week, authorities in the southwestern province of Sichuan ordered crypto miners in the region to stop working.

      The other day, the People's Bank of China announced that it is ordering banks to stop trading cryptocurrency. This caused the price of Bitcoin to drop to $31,000. Over the past week, the price has fallen by 20% amid uncertainty and panic in the market among investors.

      Altcoins have also fallen, with the entire market down 14% in price over the past couple of days, according to cryptocurrency exchange platform CoinBase. These events also affect equipment prices. Chinese consumers seeking to purchase video cards, which are critical components for bitcoin mining, have seen a sharp drop in prices over the past day or so. According to the South China Morning Post, some prices have fallen by as much as 65%.

      China sees decentralized and unregulated cryptocurrencies as a threat. The People's Bank of China said they "disrupted the normal order of the economy" and "increased the risks of illegal cross-border asset transfers and illegal activities such as money laundering." It plans to become the first country to launch its own official digital currency, the digital yuan.

      Bitcoin mining won't stop because of China's crackdown. Instead, the miners change their location. Texas may be the first suitable place to benefit from the new restrictions in China, thanks to a relatively weak regulatory framework and cheap electricity.




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      Ethereum Bullish Signal!

      Ethereum has plunged but it seems that it has found support. The price action has printed a bullish reversal candle. Still, we have to wait before deciding to go long as the price is located under strong obstacles.

      The price of Bitcoin has printed the same candlestick pattern, so BTC/USD's growth should bring a potential rally on ETH/USD.


      ETH/USD FALSE BREAKDOWN!

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      ETH/USD dropped and now it has found support below the weekly S2 (1705.96) level. It has closed far above the 1,700 today's low signaling an oversold situation. Now is pressuring the 1,930 static resistance, the support has turned into resistance.

      The current decline was expected after dropping from the symmetrical triangle. Technically, we are in a support zone, so we could start looking for buying opportunities.


      OUTLOOK!
      The false breakdown with great separation below the S2 (1705.96) signaled that we may have a bullish momentum soon.




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      Bitcoin collapsed under pressure from China. How long will this fall last?

      A new week has kicked off for Bitcoin with another blow. China is seriously tightening the screws on cryptocurrencies.

      On Monday, the People's Bank of China ordered major banks and payment companies to fight hard to track cryptocurrency transactions. After that, the Agricultural Bank of China and the widespread payment platform Ant Group's Alipay said that they will strengthen the monitoring of crypto transactions.

      And if in May the Chinese ban was perceived by many skeptically, saying it is impossible to track operations, and no one will do it, now, as we see, the authorities are more serious than ever.

      Against this background, the hash rate, which measures the computing power of the Bitcoin network, has fallen to the lowest values since the end of last year. Consequently, mining has slowed down significantly.

      Miners were also seriously pressed. Large provinces, which are considered the main centers of mining, have introduced their own bans. There, energy suppliers were banned from serving miners, and cloud companies also denied them services.

      However, the price drop may be temporary, as miners may now be forced to sell some of the Bitcoins in order to receive money.

      Is it worth considering that "everything is lost" in this situation? If you look at the chart, not yet. And there are three reasons for this, which we will talk about later.

      In the meantime, let's take a break from local troubles and look at bitcoin from above and from a different angle.

      For example, well-known crypto expert Mike Novogratz still believes in the main cryptocurrency. He emphasizes that in terms of long-term strategy, Bitcoin is more preferable than gold. It has the same macroeconomic tailwinds as the precious metal, but it is now at a very early stage of the adoption curve.

      According to Novogratz, central banks and the Department of Finance, which are forced to issue their national currencies and require new assets to secure them, will need new reliable assets. Bitcoin is one of them.

      "So you have solid assets. You know that real estate is a solid asset. Gold is a solid asset. Stocks can be solid assets and, of course, cryptocurrency."

      The key advantage of bitcoin is its ecosystem, which is now in its infancy and will develop rapidly in the near future.

      Moreover, a digital currency-based financial system will create a new architecture for the financial world that is "more transparent, more efficient, and fairer."

      Now let's look at the chart. At the time of writing, Bitcoin has not yet updated the lows of May 19. This shadow was formed at the time of the first collapse in response to the Chinese ban. But this fall was bought out, the market went sideways.

      Today, the support level of 31,082.82 (red dotted line) is broken, but the candlestick has not yet closed. Therefore, it may be desirable to conclude the breakdown, but it is still premature.

      Finally, the strong support of 28,392.99 is still there, so the sideways consolidation of 28,392.99-41,980.24 is still relevant.

      It would be unprofessional to claim that Bitcoin will not fall lower. It may well fall, but so far there are no technical justifications for such conclusions. Clarity about the relevance of the sidewall 28,392,99-41,980,24, we will probably get in the coming days.

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      Ekaterina Kiseleva
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      Bullish trend failed: Major altcoins sink to last year's lows

      The cryptocurrency market was in an optimal state to start an upward trend during last week's trading. However, investors' concerns and the aggravated news background caused a gradual pullback of the BTC indicators. The price of major altcoins also began to fall amid a sharply increased correlation with Bitcoin. On June 22, the cryptocurrency market lost 7% of its total capitalization, and digital coins fell to last year's lows.

      The indicators of the major altcoin Ethereum sank by 29% over the week, and 7% over the past day. At the same time, the cryptocurrency shows extremely negative dynamics of changes in quotes in the context of several hours (-3%). Ethereum tried to stand at around $1,800, but the coin continued to fall. The reduction in altcoin quotes is due to the dependence on bitcoin and the negative news background. Despite this, interest in the cryptocurrency does not subside, and the number of unique addresses remains at a high level. This indicates the confidence of the retail audience. In addition, Ethereum remains the only coin among the major cryptocurrencies that gives confidence in its near future. On June 26, the developers will launch another test version of the network before the London hard fork. After the update, the ETH network will use a "Pork of Stake" consensus algorithm, as well as a roll-up tool. All this allows the asset to retain its audience despite the correction. The cryptocurrency will soon test support in the area of $1,800 and has every chance to continue falling.

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      The Ripple token fell by 17.5% over the past day, and the reduction in quotes for the week reached 37%. As of 12:00 UTC, the coin is quoted at $0.558. The sharp drop in the price started a few hours ago. The narrow dynamics of changes in quotes indicate a growing downward movement (-4.5%). The token underwent a sharp correction, which was aggravated by the dependence on Bitcoin. Given the uncertainty with the trial, interest in the cryptocurrency continued to fall. In the near future, the asset has every chance to test the $0.5 mark.

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      Litecoin sank by 16.5% over the past day, and the total losses for the week amounted to 36.5%. This is the largest collapse among all major cryptocurrencies. The coin has also undergone a sharp correction and remains negative. The narrow dynamics of changes in quotes indicate a further decline (-4.5%). As of 12:00 UTC, the altcoin is quoted around $112, but strong market pressure and a negative background can roll back the LTC indicators to $100.

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      Major cryptocurrencies continue their downward movement amid investor uncertainty, which escalated into a real panic. Bitcoin failed the test of the $42,000 mark, after which a rollback followed, provoked by negative news and players' uncertainty about the current prospects of the coin. Recall that on June 20, all mining companies in China were closed due to a government order. This negatively affected the capacity of bitcoin and directly influenced the fall of major altcoins. Despite the positive news coming in, such as a huge investment from MicroStrategy, the market has yet to find a bottom. In the near future, the downward movement of major cryptocurrencies will continue, and for a wide reversal, fundamental news is needed that will restore confidence to investors.




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      Artem Petrenko
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