Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Dan Morehead: Now is the time to buy Bitcoin



While the fundamental background for bitcoin remains very unpleasant, many important and well-known representatives of the financial and cryptocurrency sphere continue to insist that bitcoin will grow soon, and in 2021 it will update its maximum value. For example, this opinion is shared by the head of the cryptocurrency hedge fund Pantera Capital, Dan Morehead. In his opinion, the decline in the rate of almost all cryptocurrencies in recent months, as well as some panic in the market, makes it possible for everyone to buy bitcoin at a very attractive price. According to Morehead, cryptocurrency has been "below trend" for a very short time, so such periods of time are an excellent opportunity to buy coins. He also does not consider bitcoin overbought and excessively expensive.

"Profit is now 281% on an annualized basis, and looks absolutely normal given the amount of money printed by central banks over the past year," said the head of Pantera Capital. In addition, Morehead said that rumors from China about the complete ban on mining in the country may remain rumors. "I counted at least 8 cases when the PRC authorities were going to ban bitcoin," he said. Morehead also stressed that bitcoin could decline in recent months due to the fact that the tax payment period is coming in the United States, and that in past years, the cryptocurrency also sagged noticeably during these periods of time.

At the same time, the analytical company Santiment calculated that in recent weeks, large investors have bought another 90,000 bitcoin coins, and now about 48% of all mined coins are on wallets with sizes ranging from 100 BTC to 10,000 BTC. Thus, these wallets now store about 9 million "digital gold" coins with a total value of about $360 billion at the current exchange rate. One could conclude that the "whales" continue to build up long positions on bitcoin, if among these wallets there were not a sufficiently large number of cryptocurrency exchanges and various services that simply store the coins of their clients, accumulating them.

In any case, even if large investors and institutions really started buying bitcoin again, this does not have a beneficial effect on the rate. This means that the demand is still too low so that bitcoin can seriously count on strong new growth. Or the supply of bitcoin is too large and is simply not covered by demand. One way or another, bitcoin failed to overcome the resistance level of $40,700 and now it can rush down again. We believe that cryptocurrency sales with targets of $35,000 and $30,500 are now more relevant.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin bounced off the $40,700 mark and continues to fall



Bitcoin continued to decline yesterday after it failed to overcome the $40,700 mark, which is the upper border of the sideways channel. Thus, at the moment, the downward movement forecast to the level of $30,500 is fully fulfilled. Also, note that bitcoin quotes have consolidated below the short-term upward trend line on the 4-hour time frame, which also increases the chances of a continuation of the downward movement.

Over the past day, traders have not received any important and positive information. Crypto billionaires and investors continue to sing praise about Bitcoin, listing its advantages, even those that it never possessed, and declaring that Bitcoin will break value records again in 2021. However, we have already repeatedly talked about how to relate to this kind of forecast. In fact, Bitcoin has moved to the formation of a downward trend, which may take several years. It also cannot be said that Bitcoin has completely completed the process of consolidation and correction after soaring to the level of $65,000. Well, the general fundamental background, from our point of view, remains negative.

The most astute crypto experts also expect the bitcoin to drop to $19,000 - $24,000 per coin and say that investors are now afraid of a new portion of negativity from the Chinese or U.S. authorities. Recall that the process of tightening the cryptocurrency sphere has already begun in China, where 4 regions have completely banned mining. Most likely, this process will continue. In the United States, everyone is waiting for the adoption of new legislation that will oblige all cryptocurrency exchanges and other companies engaged in bitcoin to transfer information about all transactions over $10,000 to the U.S. Internal Revenue Service. Considering the fact that the bitcoin coin costs $38,000 even after the fall, most of the transactions will fall under such a requirement. Of course, investors are not stupid either, and many of them will now try to split their transactions into payments of less than $10,000. However, the very fact that the U.S. authorities have taken up the cryptocurrency market is important here, which means that the tightening of regulation can now be permanent, and not one-time.

In general, all this negative is not yet covered by Elon Musk's "new love" for bitcoin, whose Tesla can resume sales of electric cars for cryptocurrency, as well as the decision of the authorities of El Salvador to allow the use of bitcoin as a means of payment, along with the U.S. dollar. The other day, the World Bank said that it refused to help the authorities of El Salvador in the transition to bitcoin. According to the Bank's representatives, the use of cryptocurrency at the state level is not a solution that the organization supports. Bitcoin is too unstable, too volatile, not transparent enough, and absolutely unecological, so the World Bank is not going to help anyone with its introduction into the financial system.



Technically, bitcoin failed to overcome the $40,000 ($ 40,700) mark and began to decline. On the 24-hour time frame, it is clearly visible that the cryptocurrency can be located inside the side channel. Therefore, in the coming days, there may be a movement to its lower border. On the other hand, overcoming the $40,700 mark will allow investors to breathe more freely and continue buying bitcoin, which can lead it to the levels of $43,852 and $47,070.






Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading Signal for XRP/USD (Ripple), for June 18 - 21, 2021: Bearish pressure



XRP / USD (Ripple) has been trading below the downtrend line and oscillating between a price range of USD $ 1.07 and USD $ 0.78 (4/8) for the last few days. The fact that buyers have not pushed the price above the 200 EMA ($ 0.99) in recent days suggests a lack of demand at higher levels.

On the other hand, the market has entered a period of consolidation below the line of the bearish channel that has been drawn since May 21, which now exerts downward pressure on Ripple.

The 200 EMA ($ 0.9923) is just above the bearish channel, so the selling pressure is likely to continue to intensify as long as Ripple remains below this level.

If bearish pressure leads it to trade below 4/8 murray ($ 0.7812), the selling will intensify and the bears may take it to the low of $ 0.6478.

The Ripple is likely to remain below the 21 SMA and 200 EMA for a longer period of time, and the trading volume will be limited.

Above the 200 EMA, Ripple (XRP) could take a further bullish momentum and reach the 6/8 murray resistance zone located at $ 1.1719.

Our recommendation is to sell below the SAM of 21 with targets at 0.7812, and wait for a technical bounce in this zone to buy with targets at $ 0.8705 and $ 0.9923.


Support and Resistance Levels for June 18 – 21, 2021
Resistance (3) 0.8915
Resistance (2) 0.8752
Resistance (1) 0.8533

Support (1) 0.8151
Support (2) 0.7988
Support (3) 0.7769




Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin: Three reasons for growth to $100,000 by end of 2021

An increasing number of analysts express the opinion that now is the best time to buy bitcoin, and the current consolidation should be perceived as a phase of accumulation.

The well-known Mike McGlone, a senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg, notes, not for the first time, that market conditions in 2021 are ideally suited for bitcoin to reach the price level of $100,000 and exceed it.

McGlone identifies three key factors that will drive the growth of the entire crypto market. This is the halving of bitcoin last year, increased demand and acceptance from both the retail sector and institutional investors.

He also argues that Bitcoin is the most important asset in the financial markets of the future, as cryptocurrencies, gold, and metals will soon be the main mix of assets. He advises investors: "When in doubt, diversify and in a world of accelerating electrification, decarbonization, and digitization, we see a solid foundation for higher prices for a mixture of metals and cryptocurrencies."

Nevertheless, Bitcoin remains sensitive to unpredictable and sharp price fluctuations due to the influence of large market participants (whales). Elon Musk is currently considered the most disruptive factor for the predictability of Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market.

Still, McGlone argues that fiat money inflation, growing adoption, and expanding demand versus a shrinking supply of bitcoin create an ideal environment for Bitcoin to grow in the long term.

"The #Bitcoin $100,000 has a bullish trump card up its sleeve: supply reduction. This year is followed by a reduction in the supply of bitcoins, which increases the likelihood of a price increase if past patterns persist."

Bitcoin is mathematics, which means that its future is 100% predetermined.

Previously, a similar opinion was expressed by the legendary hedge fund manager billionaire Paul Tudor Jones. He stated that based on the fact that Bitcoin is mathematics and mathematics has been around for thousands of years, Bitcoin will continue to rise in value exponentially, just like mathematical equations.

So what about the current drop? Even if Bitcoin falls below $30,000, it is still a downward correction in the bullish trend. And even a decline to $20,000, the 2017 high, will not be too critical for the long term, in my opinion.

But there is so little time until the end of 2021, you might say. Yes, but bitcoin can grow very quickly, and it's not a secret for anyone after the events of the first quarter and even the beginning of the second. Therefore, in my opinion, the global bullish forecast is still relevant.

Today, Pantera Capital CEO Dan Morehead urged newcomers and investors looking to buy bitcoin to do so now. According to him, the cryptocurrency market is currently below the trend and called it the best time to buy for new investors.

Interestingly, in his "June investor letter" from Pantera Capital, Dan Morehead writes that China's multiple bans on cryptocurrency are "the movie we've seen before," adding that investors who sell because of China's "ban" usually end up regretting it. He refers to previous years (2013, 2017, 2021), when China banned cryptocurrency, after which more than one period of growth followed.

Meanwhile, the accumulation period on the BTC/USD chart has not ended locally. Yesterday's forecasts are up-to-date, we are waiting for the situation around the level of 38,610.88 (red dotted line) to clear up.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Altcoins continue to fluctuate amid bitcoin volatility and negative news: analysis and forecast

The altcoin market suspended its growth at the beginning of this week due to the increased attention to bitcoin. Over the past day, the situation has not changed drastically, and the main cryptocurrencies continue to fluctuate. This is due to investor concerns, the instability of the news background, and the local correction of BTC. As a result, the total capitalization of the crypto market has not changed much, remaining at $1.7 trillion.

Over the past week, ETH indicators continued their downward movement and reached a local low at $2,300. Over the past day, ethereum has fallen by 3%, and the current dynamics of price changes indicate that the asset will continue to move down. At the same time, the record low commission in the cryptocurrency network did not become a reason for the activation of retail market participants. This is clearly seen in the indicators of daily trading volumes, which sank to the level of $26 billion. The long-term indicators of the main altcoin also remain bearish. The coin's quotes show resistance to the downward trend at local support levels, but the fallen social activity and the deteriorating news background do not give the asset individual incentives for growth. Soon, the cryptocurrency will test the strength of the $2,300 mark, although it has a chance to start moving to the support level of $ 2,500.



The situation around the Ripple token remains uncertain. The coin continues to move along the downward resistance. The cryptocurrency has already tried to break through this line three times but did not succeed. Despite this, an upward trend loomed on the charts of the asset, thanks to which XRP rose in price by 1.5%. This is also indicated by the MACD indicators for the last 2 hours, similar dynamics are demonstrated by the RSI index. The main support level is still around $0.8, however, given the reversal, the cryptocurrency has every chance of testing the $1.04 mark in the near future.



LTC quotes continue to move along the support level of $160. The cryptocurrency is not able to overcome this threshold, however, it is actively recovering its positions after local collapses. The current dynamics of changes in LTC/USD indicators indicate that the asset will again test the $160 mark soon. In addition, the volume of daily trading shows a drop in interest in altcoins. In the near future, cryptocurrencies will need a strong news momentum and the relative stability of Bitcoin to start a bullish trend.



At the same time, the news background continues to remain relatively positive. The only problem was the news that the World Bank refused to help El Salvador in the implementation of bitcoin. Large investors began to lose interest in the news about the submission of new applications for the creation of bitcoin funds and cryptocurrency ETFs. It's all about the consistent policy of the SEC, which postpones the consideration of applications for a longer period. A possible reason for optimism will be Tesla's resumption of accepting bitcoins as payment for its goods. However, at the moment the market lacks the confidence to start a bullish trend, which is clearly seen in the institutional reaction to positive news.





Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Short-term technical analysis on Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is trading around $39,000. Price has made an important low around $30,000 and since then it is making higher highs and higher lows. Price so far respects the short-term trend line support and as long as this is the case, we expect Bitcoin to recapture $40,000 and move towards $45,000.



Black line - support trend line

Bitcoin as can be seen in the 4 hour chart above is making higher highs and higher lows. The black support trend line is being respected thus far. Key support is at $34,500. Breaking below this level will increase chances of a break below $30,000 towards $25,000. Resistance is at $40,500-$41,100 and breaking above it will give us a new bullish signal that could bring price towards $45,000 and higher. The RSI is not in overbought levels. There is no sign of a reversal to the downside or that this recent upward move is complete.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin Analysis for 17 June

BTC moved lower overnight.
Some retracement over the past hours.
Support at $37,500.



Bitcoin price analysis is bearish as the market moved lower overnight and has yet to reach the $37,500 support. Therefore, we expect further downside later today and a reversal from there later this week.

BTC/USD traded in a range of $38,176 – $39,576, indicating a moderate amount of volatility. Trading volume has remained flat and totals $39.6 billion. The total market cap stands at $734.4 billion, resulting in a market dominance of 45.2 percent.

On the 4-hour chart, we can see the Bitcoin price starting to retrace from the $41.333 local swing high, indicating that the $37,500 support will likely be tested later this week.

Bitcoin price analysis is bearish for today as the market has still not retraced towards the $37,500 support level where 50-61.8 Fibonacci retracement area is located. Once the support is reached, we can expect BTC/USD to turn bullish again and start moving towards setting a new higher high.





Jan Novotny
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

SEC again postpones the decision to create a Bitcoin ETF

Bad news for investors who want to get into bitcoin but are not yet able to do so for a number of reasons. Yesterday, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission once again opposed the creation of the Bitcoin ETF and postponed the decision to a later date. We are talking about July or even August.



Why is Bitcoin ETF so important to the market? The answer is very simple. The creation of this kind of instrument will bring new investors to the market, who now have problems with investing in this asset class. There can be a lot of reasons: starting from banal prohibitions and ending with the complexity of the investment mechanism, transferring funds to exchanges, buying assets and storing them, and most importantly - protection at the legislative level. ETFs would eliminate all of these problems in one fell swoop by helping to attract new institutional investors.

The Securities and Exchange Commission said Wednesday that it wants more public comment on the proposal to list a new product on Cboe Global Markets Inc. This is not the first time this year that the SEC has postponed such a decision and its response to a large number of applications for the creation of such funds.

As I noted above, crypto enthusiasts have long been disenchanted with the agency's reluctance to endorse the creation of a Bitcoin ETF that would help bring the new asset class into the institutional investor environment.

Let me remind you that this year the head of the SEC was replaced, who, according to experts, is more loyal to cryptocurrencies and digital assets. But nothing much has changed since Gary Gensler took over the position in April of this year. The commission continues to express concern that there is a lack of proper supervision of cryptocurrency exchanges. A new SEC report also revealed the existence of risks associated with investing mutual funds in bitcoin futures, further alerting the commission.

Yesterday, the SEC again asked the public to weigh all aspects that are necessary to approve the first application of the VanEck Associates Corp. ETF. The Securities and Exchange Commission has set a deadline for a response – July of this year, but experts believe that this is not enough. Most likely, the focus will be shifted to August of this year.

Here are some of the agency's key questions:

-Will the trust and shares associated with the ETF be subject to manipulation?
-How to deal with fraudulent schemes and market manipulation?
-How transparent is Bitcoin?
-How has Bitcoin market regulation changed over the past five years?

If the SEC gets answers to these basic questions, the case may move forward, which will be a new stage for both the cryptocurrency industry as a whole and for digital assets.

In the meantime, the Commission and the U.S. Federal Reserve also plan to focus on stablecoins, which cause no less headaches than ETFs. In recent weeks, lawmakers and Federal Reserve officials have repeatedly expressed concern that some consumers would not actually be protected if one of the stablecoin firms suddenly started having problems. They are also worried that the growing size of stablecoins creates a situation where a huge number of coins equivalent to the U.S. dollar are exchanged without affecting the U.S. banking system, which creates a good ground for financing criminal schemes.



As for the technical picture of Bitcoin, against the background of the above news, the cryptocurrency bounced from the level of $41,100 and stabilized in the middle of the channel. Just above $41,100, the 200-day moving average passes, which can create a lot of problems for buyers. Therefore, only a break in this range with the subsequent exit of the pair beyond $41,100 will open a direct path to the world's first cryptocurrency in the areas of $46,700 and $52,000. However, such a sharp jump can only be expected after a real consolidation above $41,100. If there is no active growth above this range immediately, this may lead to a repeated return to the area of the middle of the side channel ($36,300). It will also be necessary to carefully assess the activity of buyers, as an attempt may be made to build a new upward trend from this level.

As for the technical picture of ether, everything is also calm. The volatility from the low of $1,748 to the major resistance of $2,900 is gradually decreasing. The middle of the channel and, accordingly, the support is the important level of $2,260, which the bears have repeatedly fought, but it is not yet possible to overcome. If there is a breakdown, I think we will see an instant decline in the ether to the support area of $1,748. In the meantime, the bulls are aiming for a break of the $2,900 resistance, which will open a direct road to a high of $3,558.





Jakub Novak
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for June 17,.2021 - Breakout of the bear flag pattern and potential for test of $35.000

Technical analysis:



BTC has been trading downside as we expected but I still see potential for new downside wave.


Trading recommendation:

Watch for potential selling opportunities on the rallies with the downside targets at the price of $37.500 and $35.000.

Stochastic is showing overbought condition and fresh new bear cross, which is good indication for the further drop...





Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Litecoin Upside Movement Incoming!

Litecoin stands above strong support, so an upside movement is favored. The price has decreased a little trying to attract more bullish energy. The current retreat could bring us a good opportunity.

LTC/USD has invalidated a potential deeper drop as the price of Bitcoin is traded higher. Technically, we need confirmation before taking action on this crypto.


LTC/USD TEMPORARY DECLINE!



You can see that LTC/USD has stabilized above the downtrend line and now it moves upwards within the ascending pitchfork's body. The lower median line (lml) is seen as dynamic support, while the weekly pivot point (166.22) represents static support.

It could increase as long as it stays above these levels. Jumping and stabilizing above the 181.26 level could signal more gains.


LITECOIN OUTLOOK!
Making a new higher high could really activate a strong growth at least until the median line (ml). Only a valid breakdown through the lower median line (lml) and below the weekly pivot point (166.22). could invalidate the bullish scenario.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021