Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Trading plan for Bitcoin for June 14, 2021



Technical outlook:

Bitcoin has rallied through $39,850 levels today, falling in line with expectations. The crypto might have completed its bullish triangle consolidation around $34,635 levels yesterday. If it comes true, bulls might remain inclined to push above $40,000 levels immediately. On the flip side, the consolidation might continue to unfold yet another drop from here.

Bitcoin is seen to be trading around $39,200 levels at this point in writing and might face short term resistance here. If bears are able to come back strong here, the crypto might drop through $35,000 levels again before finding support. Immediate resistance stays at $42,200/300 levels, while support is around $34,000 levels respectively.

Bitcoin wave structure continues to remain bullish as the crypto is clearly holding above the trend line support since last one year. The crypto has tested its trend line yet again around $31,000 levels before bouncing back strongly. A break above $42,300 from here would confirm that bulls are back in control.


Trading plan:

Remain flat for now, buy on dips towards $34,000, stop @ 28,000, target is open.

Good luck!





Oscar Ton
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Will Bitcoin become an alternative to dollar?



El Salvador's bold move to accept Bitcoin as legal tender has left Wall Street wondering whether the main cryptocurrency will replace dollar.

Several companies, including Tesla, MicroStrategy and Square, already incorporated Bitcoin into their balance sheets without sparking a broader corporate revolution. Now, the focus is on governments.

El Salvador, which started using the US dollar as a currency more than 20 years ago, became the first country in the world to pass a law allowing the use of bitcoins in any transaction. President Nayib Bukele says the target is to counter the low status of the entire banking system, not to mention reduce the cost of sending remittances.

Considering this, will Bitcoin become an alternative to dollar? Bitstamp CEO Julianne Sawyer answered "no" and said BTC is too volatile to completely replace USD.



Even El Salvador's central bank president Nicolas Martinez said this is impossible to happen because dollar is more stable compared to Bitcoin. Cryptocurrencies are also affected by tweets, memes and Elon Musk, which is not very suitable for a national or global currency.

Just this year, Bitcoin quadrupled in value, while dollar dropped 5.5%. Then, in mid-April, Bitcoin lost almost half of its rate

In view of this, Bannockburn Global chief market strategist Marc Chandler said: "Bitcoin is very volatile, which is counterproductive for countries seeking stability. But countries peg it because their national currency has become too unstable, or they lost confidence in the market. "

Other countries such as Haiti, Guatemala, South Sudan and Liberia may be the next to switch to Bitcoin, given their dependence on remittance flows, high poverty and low financial inclusion.

Other dollar-based countries, similar to El Salvador, are also candidates to officially adopt Bitcoin and become less dependent on the Federal Reserve and US policies.





Andrey Shevchenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

The pressure on bitcoin persists. Bitcoin may fall down again one of these days



In the last two months, the fundamental background for the entire cryptocurrency market remains extremely negative. Of course, traders always have the "Elon Musk factor" at their disposal, which from time to time also supports the first cryptocurrency, but recently, much more negative news has come. Earlier, it was reported that the Chinese authorities may prohibit the mining of cryptocurrencies on their territory. The authorities of some regions of the PRC have already banned mining (Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, and Sichuan). Now, the authorities of the Chinese region of Yunnan are also going to stop mining cryptocurrencies on their territory. Companies that locate their mining equipment in the districts listed above are looking to move it to North American countries. However, it is not only in China that they propose to fight bitcoin, as well as to prevent the use of non-renewable energy sources in the extraction of bitcoin. The Netherlands also proposes to completely ban cryptocurrencies, as announced by the director of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Peter Hasekamp. In his opinion, there is a whole list of reasons why bitcoin cannot be legal. Cryptocurrency, according to Hasekamp, does not have any feature and property of money and has no intrinsic value. Hasekamp noted that bitcoin is often used to finance various criminal operations and criminals, as well as various frauds very often occur with it. The director also noted that bitcoin is practically not used to conduct "ordinary" transactions and to pay for goods and services. He stated that the collapse of the cryptocurrency market is inevitable and urged the Dutch authorities to make it as difficult as possible for Dutch citizens to access cryptocurrencies as quickly as possible. Thus, recently (in 2021), Bitcoin is really starting to face resistance from central banks and the authorities of many countries. Theoretically, bitcoin can be banned by all countries of the world, which will bury the entire cryptocurrency market. However, there will most likely be a clear gradation of bitcoin-friendly and hostile countries. Most likely, countries like El Salvador will benefit from the legalization of bitcoin, since their economies are so weak that every chance should be used to facilitate the movement of capital into their territory. For countries like the United States or China, bitcoin poses a threat to the financial system, as it and other cryptocurrencies are used to evade taxes.



Technically, on the 4-hour timeframe, bitcoin quotes moved away from the $30,500 level and even consolidated above the $38,467 resistance level. Thus, the upward movement may continue with the target of the resistance level of $43,852. However, it is quite possible that from the current positions, a new fall will begin, since it was near the current levels of value that the growth stopped in the last two times, which is clearly seen in the illustration.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin made an impressive rise on Sunday.



The world's first cryptocurrency made an impressive rise over the weekend. And to be more precise, on Sunday, bitcoin rose by $ 3,500. Once again, the course of "bitcoin" was influenced by Tesla CEO Elon Musk. The odious billionaire continues to comment on bitcoin. However, this time, his message was harmless, non-provocative, and directly impacted his company and its activities. Therefore, Musk can hardly be charged with manipulation this time since he only answered the question of when Tesla will again start selling electric cars for bitcoins. Musk said that the company would return to transactions in bitcoin when miners around the world will more often use renewable energy to mine cryptocurrency (more than 50% of the time).

After this message, new growth began. We still believe that the correction scenario remains the main one for the next year or two. We believe that now a long period of consolidation has begun, in which bitcoin is located after each of its upward trends. However, the quotes are still fixed above the descending trend line on the daily timeframe, so there are specific upward prospects for "digital gold" now. However, at the moment, the "b" has not even managed to overcome its previous local maximum, so we can even assume that the price is in a side-channel between the levels of$ 31,000 and$40,000. In any case, the situation should clear up in the coming days. We recall that if we put aside all the messages from Elon Musk, the fundamental background for bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market remains very weak. Because the most important news has already come from China and the United States, where the authorities want to tighten the cryptocurrency market regulation very much, and in the Middle Kingdom, they even want to ban mining completely. At the same time, in some regions of China, miners have already begun to prohibit digital mining assets. Thus, from our perspective, the markets will pay more attention to these factors and news. Therefore, bitcoin is just more likely to have a new decline after the growth on Sunday since this is the nature of the movements observed in recent weeks. Well, any new data from China and the United States can have a strong impact on the mood of crypto traders, especially if the news is negative.



In technical terms, bitcoin has not managed once again to work out the support level of $ 30,500. However, it also fails to overcome the level of $ 40,000. Thus, despite overcoming the downward trend line, there is now a high probability that bitcoin is inside the side channel with the upper limit just around the $ 40,000 level. Therefore, there is a high probability of a downward turn today or tomorrow with a new drop of 7-8 thousand dollars.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for June 14, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
On June 25, Ether (ETH) will face its biggest option expiration in 2021. On this date, $ 1.5 billion of positions will be settled. This figure is 30% higher than the March 26 expiry which occurred when the price of Aether fell 17% in 5 days and hit a low close to $ 1,550.

After the March options expired, ethereum gained 56% to reach $ 2,500 in three weeks. These movements were completely uncorrelated with bitcoins (BTC). Therefore, it is important to understand if a similar market structure could occur when futures and options expire on June 25.

Options are similar to futures in that derivative contracts give investors a right, but not an obligation, to sell or buy an asset for a predetermined price.

When an option is nearing an expiry date, holders of an option contract must adjust their contracts either before or immediately after their expiry. This can lead to significant volatility in the ETH price.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has been seen approaching the level of $2,550 after a new marginal lower low was made at the level of $2,256. The next target for bulls is seen at $2,619 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down) and $2,639. The momentum is strong and positive, so the overall outlook starts to look bullish. The confirmation will come after all of the Fibonacci retracement are cleared.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $3,393
WR2 - $3,098
WR1 - $2,806

Weekly Pivot - $2,528
WS1 - $2,226
WS2 - $1,922
WS3 - $1,648


Trading Recommendations:
Ethereum has lost more than 50% of the recent gains from the lows of March 2020 and now is currently in the counter-trend corrective cycle. The next long-term target for bears is seen at the level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave up) and $1,420 ( January 2018 swing high). The up trend is resumed when the level of min. $3,000 is clearly violated.







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for June 14, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
After Tesla stopped accepting BTC as a payment method for its electric cars in May this year, Elon Musk said his company would resume receiving bitcoin transactions on one condition based on energy consumption.

Exactly one month after Tesla announced the suspension of bitcoin payments, Elon Musk tweeted that the electric vehicle manufacturer would re-authorize BTC transactions. However, there is one condition: at least 50% of the energy used to mine Bitcoin must come from clean energy sources.

"When there is confirmation of the reasonable (~ 50%) clean energy consumption of miners with a vision of a positive future, Tesla will resume approval for bitcoin transactions," wrote Elon Musk on Twitter.

The tweet was a response to the statement of Magda Wierzycka, one of the richest women in South Africa and CEO of Sygnia, who blamed Musk for a pump & dump on the bitcoin market, which the billionaire was supposed to conduct for his own benefit. Musk claimed Tesla only sold 10% of the stake to confirm Tesla could sell BTC without having to influence the market.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has been seen approaching the level of $40,000 after a successful breakout above the technical resistance seen at $39,413. The next target for bulls is seen at $40,454, $41, 096 (38% Fibonacci retracement) and $41,798 - $43,159 zone. The momentum is strong and positive, so the overall outlook starts to look bullish. The confirmation will come after the $41,798 - $43,159 zone is clearly violated.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $51,501
WR2 - $45,102
WR1 - $42,774

Weekly Pivot - $36,903
WS1 - $34, 523
WS2 - $28,705
WS3 - $26,848


Trading Recommendations:
Even despite the recent correction the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Elliott wave analysis of Ripple for June 14, 2021



Ripple has seen a simple but deep zig-zag correction in wave 2/ since the April high at 1.9670. This wave 2/ correction completed at 0.6510 and is now getting ready to rally in wave 3/ that will rally way above the wave1/ peak at 1.9670. A break above minor resistance at 1.0710 will be the first good indication that wave 3/ is well under way towards 1.9670 and above.

Only a break below support at 0.7935 will delay the expected rally for a more extended correction in wave 2.

Trading recommendation:
Buy a break above 1.0710 for the next strong rally to above 1.9670





Torben Melsted
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Elliott wave analysis of Bitcoin for June 14, 2021



After a complex but deep correction in wave 4 Bitcoin shows the first strong signs of a bottom being in place and the final rally in wave 5 ready to take off. Short-term, we would like to see a break above minor resistance at 40,905 to confirm that wave 4 has completed and wave 5 is in motion for a rally above the peak in wave 3 at 58,354. The ideal target for wave 5 is seen at 97.798.

Short-term we expect support at 37,650 will be able to protect the downside for the expected rally above 40,905, but only a break below key-support at 34,630 will delay the expected rally in wave 5.


Trading recommendation:
Buy Bitcoin on a break above 40.905 for a rally towards 97,798.





Torben Melsted
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading Signal for ETH/USD, (Ethereum) for June 14 - 15, 2021: Buy above $2,400



The price of ETH / USD (Ethereum) continues to consolidate above the psychological level of $ 2,000, having lost more than 50% of profitability from the May market crash.

The ETH has established a strong bottom in the support zone of $ 2,200. It has bounced above this level. Besides, in the chart we can notice the pattern of a descending wedge.

Given that Ethereum has broken this technical pattern, it is likely that in the coming days it will continue its upward climb to the 200 EMA zone located at $ 2,812, 5/8 murray resistance zone.

We can also add that ETH / USD is now consolidating above the 21 SMA, which represents a probability of a bullish move in the next few hours.

While ETH / USD remains above the 21 SMA there is a strong medium-term bullish outlook. Its target will be the $ 2,812 zone. The eagle indicator is showing a bullish signal.


Support and Resistance Levels for June 14 – 15, 2021
Resistance (3) 2,822
Resistance (2) 2,697
Resistance (1) 2,594

Support (1) 2,375
Support (2) 2,235
Support (3) 2,156


Trading tip for ETH/USD (Ethereum) for June 14 - 15, 2021
Buy above $2,500 or if rebound $2,420, (SMA 21), with take profit at 2,812 (5/8), stop loss below $2,200.





Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin breakout, first target $42,000.

Bitcoin has managed to break above the key resistance trend line and is now trading above $39,000. Price is now making higher highs and higher lows. Short-term trend is changing to bullish again and with the new break out, we are now expecting a move higher towards $42,000.



Red lines - Fibonacci extensions

Black line -resistance

Bitcoin has managed to break above the resistance trend line that provided three price rejections so far. Bulls now need to keep price above the black trend line which is now support. Bitcoin is expected to move towards $42,000 and then pull back for a possible back test of the break out. Second target is at $47,000-$50,000. Support is key at recent low of $34,500 and bulls do not want to see price fall below this level.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021