Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Technical analysis for Bitcoin

Bitcoin



The bears were unable to update the minimum extremum (29701.91) this week. In addition, another decline did not allow Bitcoin to leave the attraction zone formed by the accumulation of levels in the area of 37297 - 35594 - 34354 (monthly Tenkan + monthly Kijun + the final line of the weekly cross). Thus, the bulls took control of the situation. A consolidation above 37297 will allow us to further strengthen the bullish mood. Once the Ichimoku daily golden cross is broken, there will be opportunities to rise to the next upward pivot points – 41432 (monthly Fibo Kijun + weekly Kijun + lower limit of the daily cloud) and 47235 (weekly levels + upper limit of the daily cloud).



At the moment, Bitcoin is in the correction zone in the smaller time frames. Today's center of gravity is the central pivot level (36772). If it leaves the current consolidation zone (38233.98) and continues to grow, then we can consider the resistances of the classic pivot levels 39285.32 (R2) and 40336.65 (R3).

On the contrary, if bearish traders manage to develop a downward correction in the near future, then the next significant support, which can change the current balance of power in the smaller intervals, can be noted at 35270.89 (weekly long-term trend). A reliable consolidation below will require a new assessment of the situation. The next support levels are set at 34259.30 (S2) and 32797.62 (S3).


Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) and Kijun-sen levels in the higher time frames, as well as classic Pivot Points and Moving Average (120) on the H1 chart, are used in the technical analysis of this instrument.





Evangelos Poulakis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for June 11, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
After the president of El Salvador announced that bitcoin was adopted as legal tender, the Indian Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) intends to reconsider the current cryptocurrency ban and initiate cryptocurrency regulation oversight processes.

India's top cryptocurrency industry leaders are negotiating with the finance ministry on a new set of regulatory rules, and the ministry is now looking at it.

According to the cited source, the new bill on the regulation of cryptocurrencies will probably be discussed by parliament for discussion during the monsoon season, i.e. between June and October this year.

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) again banned lenders from working with companies whose activities are related to virtual currencies - mainly crypto exchanges due to the high volatility of cryptocurrency prices.

However, El Salvador legalizing bitcoin as a tender and other Latin American countries that wish to follow suit may have prompted Indian regulators to consider changing their stance.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD has been capped at the 50% Fibonacci retracement seen at the level of $2,575. The immediate technical resistance is seen at the level of $2,639, but the bears are still pushing the prices lower. As long as the price is still under the level of $2,914, the bears are still in full control of the market and the next target for bears is seen at the level of $1,729, $1,633 and $1,544. The nearest technical support is still seen at the level of $2,201.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $3,628
WR2 - $3,236
WR1 - $2,995

Weekly Pivot - $2,426
WS1 - $2,383
WS2 - $2,000
WS3 - $1,765


Trading Recommendations:
Ethereum has lost more than 50% of the recent gains from the lows of March 2020 and now is currently in the counter-trend corrective cycle. The next long-term target for bears is seen at the level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave up) and $1,420 ( January 2018 swing high). The up trend is resumed when the level of min. $3,000 is clearly violated.







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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JPMorgan warns about bitcoin bear market

Bitcoin continues to recover from its recent lows, logged earlier this week after the FBI investigation and the ban of the Chinese authorities on mining in some regions of the country.

Nevertheless, the world's central banks continue to study the impact of cryptocurrencies on the economy and markets in general, as well as introduce capital requirements for banks working with cryptocurrency.



The recent announcement by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision is another sign that the market is rapidly changing, prompting central banks to adapt. This is why they have shifted their focus to the crypto market. Strict capital controls are not the goal of the regulator. It does not intend to tie the hands of financial institutions planning to work with crypto assets. On the contrary, it is taking the fast-growing cryptocurrency market seriously and is preparing the banking sector to adhere to it.

In the statement, the regulator also expressed concern about the risks to the financial stability of many countries associated with the extreme volatility of the cryptocurrency and the possibility of money laundering and other criminal schemes. However, investors are already tired of hearing this from politicians, who do not stop voicing their concerns about potential risks.

In a recent interview, Massachusetts Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren called the cryptocurrency market "The Wild West". She said that digital currency is not the best way to buy and sell things, nor is it a good investment. Bitcoin can only lead to an ecological disaster because of the way it is mined. Elon Musk also voiced the same concerns last month, but he could not give proof of it.

As for positive news, the central banks of Switzerland and France have joined forces with commercial banks to experiment with digital currency. UBS Group AG, Credit Suisse Group AG, Accenture Plc, and Natixis SA are among the private-sector players involved. The project was launched under the auspices of the Innovation Center at the Bank for International Settlements. The project will consider international settlements for two digital currencies of central banks, including the exchange for the digital euro CBDC. "The G20 has made enhancing cross-border payments a priority. This experiment contributes to this work by exploring how wholesale CBDC could enhance speed, efficiency, and transparency in cross-border use cases."

Meanwhile, analysts at JPMorgan found signs of bitcoin moving into a bear market. Experts have recorded a sharp decline in demand from large investors of the CME exchange. It is not surprising that after such high volatility in May, the number of traders who want to buy cryptocurrency has decreased. According to analysts, a decline in the bitcoin dominance index is a warning signal. "We believe that the return to backwardation in recent weeks has been a negative signal pointing to a bear market," JPMorgan strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note. They added that Bitcoin's relatively depressed share of total crypto market value is another concerning trend.

In my recent review, I drew attention to this problem and talked a lot about the high probability of growth in the capitalization of ether. Its resilience to market volatility may be the reason that the second-largest digital token could one day overtake bitcoin in market value. Bitcoin is currently more than twice the size of ether but the gap has narrowed by about $350 billion after the biggest sell-off seen in the middle of this month. While bitcoin notched the worst drop in its history, the sell-off of ether was not as large as many feared. It seems that investors are reviewing their attitude to this trading instrument, especially given its recent growth.



As for the technical analysis, BTC managed to bounce back from a low of $31,000. So, now it needs to break above the important resistance level of $36,300. If BTC fails to break above this range in the near future, then bears are likely to take the upper hand. It will eventually lead to a breakout of the $31,000 level. If so, BTC may decline to the lows of $25,800 and $21,700. If bitcoin consolidates above $36,300, then bulls will gain momentum. Then, BTC is expected to break above the resistance level of $41,100, which has not been reached this month. If it manages to break this level, it may well test the highs of $46,700 and $52,000.




Jakub Novak
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Chinese authorities have started to kick miners out!



During the penultimate trading day of the week, Bitcoin hit the $38,000 per coin level, which is also the 23.6% Fibonacci level, and rebounded from it. It is very clearly seen in the illustration below that each subsequent peak in value is lower than the previous one. We even formed a small downward trend line, from which the price also bounced yesterday. Recall that these are signs of a bearish trend. In March-April of this year, we have repeatedly drawn attention to the fact that the "bullish" trend was coming to an end on the same basis. As a result, the upward trend ended. Now, everything goes to the fact that today or tomorrow (the cryptocurrency market is open on weekends) there will be a new drop in the quotes of the main cryptocurrency. Bitcoin will be able to save itself from another fall only if it manages to gain a foothold above the trend line in the next couple of days.

Meanwhile, a wide variety of news is coming to the cryptocurrency market. Recall that in China, the authorities want to completely ban the mining of cryptocurrencies. It looks like this process has already begun. In Qinghai Province of China, the Industry and Information Technology Department has instructed all mining companies to cease operations. It is reported that the Department will strictly monitor any activity of large computer companies so that they do not try to disguise the mining of cryptocurrencies as a legal business. The same decision was previously made in the provinces of Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia. In the Sichuan province, miners were given time until September 2021. During this period, miners of digital assets must also completely scale back their cryptocurrency mining activities. The Chinese authorities explain their actions by concern about the use of electricity and the need to save it.

But in India, the country's authorities, on the contrary, have revised their attitude towards cryptocurrencies and, instead of a complete ban, they want to legalize the cryptocurrency sphere. Bitcoin could become a legal asset class with the Securities and Exchange Board overseeing its regulation. Thus, the fundamental background of recent days for bitcoin is controversial, and news from China is more important, since it is there that most of the world's mining capacities are concentrated. This does not mean that all Chinese miners will simply cease their activities. They will probably move the equipment to countries that are more friendly to mining. However, this means that for a certain time, the network hash rate will drop down again. Moreover, the unfriendly attitude of the Chinese authorities towards bitcoin can discourage many investors from the cryptocurrency segment. So, it is not the time to celebrate just yet because of the news from India alone. In fact, nothing has yet been legalized there. The overall fundamental background remains more negative than positive.



In technical terms, Bitcoin has shown an increase of $7,500 in the last 4 days. However, this does not mean anything special for Bitcoin. A rebound from the trendline and the 23.6% Fibonacci level could put Bitcoin back on the downward trend. In this case, the quotes will again tend to the support level of $30,500, which last time did not reach $500. We still consider the corrective scenario as the main one and believe that in the coming months the quotes may fall below the level of $30,500.




Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Microstrategy raising money to buy more bitcoin



Microstrategy is probably the most well-known public company that invests in bitcoin. Initially, its activities were related to the development of analytical software. However, now anyone hardly remembers what the main activity of the company is because all the news related to Microstrategy about bitcoin. According to the latest data, the company already has more than 90,000 coins on its balance sheet. Microstrategy made some of the investments thanks to borrowed funds on the placed bonds. not long ago, the company announced it would continue to buy BTC. Crypto bull Michael Saylor borrowed $500 million through junk bonds to plow into the cryptocurrency. The maturity of the bonds will expire in 2028, the yield is $6,125 per annum. As collateral for the bonds, the company offers the company's assets and all purchased bitcoin coins during and after their placement but not those coins that are already on the company's balance sheet.

SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce has once again urged regulators to take a step back from attempting to overregulate the crypto space. He believes that attempts of US officials to place stricter rules on the cryptocurrency market risks dampening innovation and investment. "I am concerned that the initial reaction of a regulator is always to say 'I want to grab hold of this and make it like the markets I already regulate. I am not sure that's going to be great for innovation." According to her, the first reaction of the commission was to regulate a new segment and make it similar to those segments that are already regulated, which is not quite correct. She also noted that the regulation should take place at the state level. Thus, the SEC is still thinking about the legislative rules to regulate the cryptocurrency market. Earlier the Treasury Department announced that it would require any transfer worth $10,000 or more to be reported to the Internal Revenue Service. "Cryptocurrency already poses a significant detection problem by facilitating illegal activity broadly including tax evasion," the Treasury Department said. "This is why the President's proposal includes additional resources for the IRS to address the growth of cryptoassets," the department added. Further, as with cash transactions, businesses that receive cryptoassets with a fair market value of more than $10,000 would also be reported on." Many experts believe that Washington pays too much attention to the crypto market because of its profitability. It has grown significantly over the past year with many investors using bitcoin for tax evasion. Since the tax issue in the United States is now one of the most acute. So, it is no surprising that the government is going to tighten regulations and receive tax revenues to the budget from cryptocurrency transactions. Currently, there are no official statements on this issue. That is, it is not clear what exactly the new rules of circulation and taxation will be. We can conclude that in general, bitcoin has risen in recent days amid positive fundamental factors but it still lacks strong derivers to resume the upward movement. The future trajectory of BTC will largely depend on actions of the US and China.




Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

ETH/USD Still Under Pressure

Ethereum increased a little from 2,306.02 low and now is located at 2,542.47 level. Unfortunately, the selling pressure remains high as the price stands below strong resistance levels.

ETH/USD moves somehow sideways in the short term, so we have to wait for something before deciding to go long. Personally, I believe it's risky to go short from here as the crypto market could increase again after the last drop.


ETH/USD UNDECIDED!


ETH/USD is trapped between the weekly pivot point (2,623.81) and the S1 (2,359.30). The selling pressure is high as long as it stays below the downtrend line. So, only a potential valid breakout above it could announce a potential growth.

The price could drop if the price of Bitcoin drops as well. Technically, the price could decrease a little to test and retest some support levels before really developing a new leg higher.


ETHEREUM FORECAST!
Dropping and closing below the S1 (2,359.30) could signal a further decline towards 2,040.62.

On the other hand, closing above the pivot point (2,623.81) could signal a potential upside breakout through the downtrend line. A new higher high, a bullish closure above 2,850 could signal a breakout through the 3,000 level.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading Signal for BTC/USD (Bitcoin), for June 10 - 11, 2021: Range



In the early hours of the American session, BTC / USD (Bitcoin) is trading above the 2/8 murray level around the 37,500 zone, its highest level in more than a week. When it reached the low of 31,250, it continued with an upward rebound, which would now be facing a top of the technical pattern.

On the other hand, the cryptocurrency market is losing the optimism that characterizes it, as some traders and investors believe that the price of Bitcoin could fall below the psychological level of $30,000

On the other hand, at the technical level we notice a strong consolidation above 1/8 of a murray, it has left a triple bottom. This is a sign that the market does not intend to leave this price level. It is believed to be a good price of BTC. Therefore, we can buy with targets at the 200 EMA around 41,617 in the short term.

If you look at the chart, Bitcoin has been trading within a range rectangle between 31,150 and 38,500. It means that if BTC consolidates above this level, there could be a strong bullish momentum to the zone of 4/8 murray, which coincides with the psychological level of $50,000.

Our recommendation is to buy the Bitcoin above 2/8 of murray and if it makes a technical bounce to the 21 SMA around 34,152, with targets at 41,617 and 50,000.


Support and Resistance Levels for June 10 – 11, 2021
Resistance (3) 41,755
Resistance (2) 39,343
Resistance (1) 37,797

Support (1) 35,085
Support (2) 33,483
Support (3) 31,114




Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin Analysis for 10 June, 2021



Bitcoin price analysis highlights BTC bull's unanimous action to defend $33,000.
Failure to break down past $33,000 ensured Bitcoin surges close to $38,000.
Critical technical indicators gradually improve, validating Bitcoin's bull run.

During today's early morning trading session, Bitcoin soared to hit an intraday high of $38,250. The milestone comes when the global banking supervisor, Basel Committee, proposed new measures for financial institutions, indicating it is ready to take Bitcoin seriously.

The last few days have seen Bitcoin register significant price rebounds. Going by the recent price surge, crypto pundits argue that the short-term down surge from $64,800 might be complete. This is due to the failure of the king crypto to break down past the $31,000 support level. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is exchanging hands at around $37,400 butwith an immediate focus of $39,500. Interestingly, the immediate focus happens to be Bitcoin's immediate resistance level.

If the crypto coin breaks above this level, Bitcoin would be free to rally towards the 38.2 percent Fibo retracement region that ranges between $43,970 to $64,830. If all things remain constant, there is a high likelihood that Bitcoin could surge towards the 61.8 percent Fibo retracement level at around $51,930.

According to Bitcoin's 4-hour chart, critical technical indicators validate the ongoing bullish momentum. For instance, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence recently turned bullish, authenticating Bitcoin's recent surge from $33,000 to $38,000. At present, the MACD line is teetering above the signal line, indicating Bitcoin is in for further upward price movements. It is worth noting that the more Bitcoin remains in the positive zone, the more investors will be encouraged to buy the coin, thereby extending the coin's bullish outlook.





Jan Novotny
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

XRP/USD remains trapped inside a bearish short-term channel

XRP/USD does not follow Bitcoin's upward move and remains inside the short-term bearish channel. Price remains below the key resistance at $1,06 and above the key support at $0.65-$0.75.



Red lines- bearish channel

Red rectangle- resistance

Green rectangle -support

XRP/USD bulls need to recapture $0.91 in order to exit the bearish channel and push price towards the major resistance of $1.06. Inability to do so will bring price lower towards $0.75 as a rejection at the upper channel boundary, will push price towards the lower channel boundary. Price is making lower lows and lower highs. No change in trend. No sign of a reversal yet.




Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

MicroStrategy sells bonds to fund more Bitcoin investments

MicroStrategy is reported to be selling its low-credit bonds to gain money to buy more Bitcoins. This raised skepticism over Wall Street investors, as according to them, if Bitcoin really has a potential to grow, why is there a need to issue debt obligations to raise funds.

But surprisingly, after the announcement of the $ 400 million auction, many investors expressed their desire to participate, so MicroStrategy has to increase the offer to $ 500 million. Perhaps, the participants were investors who want to have access to bitcoins, but cannot directly buy digital coins due to the complexity of cryptocurrencies.

The chart below shows that MicroStrategy is now dependent on Bitcoin. The company's shares shot up, when BTC was soaring in the market.



And as long as there is no ETF for cryptocurrencies, transactions such as mentioned above can happen in the market. The SEC has postponed the long-awaited ETF decision several times already, and the next filing is due in the middle of this month. But there is a huge chance that the procedure will be extended for a longer period.

Experts claim that corporate debt, like ETFs, is an open and fair game for many institutional investors. 7-year MicroStrategy bonds, yielding more than 6%, is a pretty good yield for a bond issued by a company with a credit profile. And if we look at the profitability of Bitcoin itself, growth was as much as 5,500% over the past seven years.

In terms of risks, MicroStrategy assures that its buyers are protected by the company's constant positive cash flow, its intellectual property and software, and by Bitcoin itself. And most often, its investors are those who believe in the fundamentals of digital business and in hedging risks.



At the time of writing, Bitcoin has bounced off $ 31,000 and is moving towards $ 36,300. If the quote breaks above this level, BTC will be able to jump towards $ 41,100, $ 46,700 and $ 52,000. But if the quote drops below $ 36,300, BTC will return to $ 31,000, and then drop to $ 25,800 and $ 21,700.





Jakub Novak
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021