Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for May 31, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
The difficulty of mining bitcoin has seen a significant decline. Along with it, the hash rate dropped to levels that had not been observed until recent reports from China in the context of mining.

The on-chain data shows that the mining difficulty on the network has been adjusted to 21.05 trillion at a block height of 685,440. That equates to a 16% drop from the recent high of May 13.

The average Bitcoin block production interval has already increased to 11.8 minutes between May 13, the date of the last correction of mining difficulties, and May 21, when the Chinese Council of State announced its desire to crack down on Bitcoin mining and trading in the country.

This interval was 18% faster than the 10 minutes per block assumed by the Bitcoin network. Additionally, the average hash rate between May 13 and May 21 has already dropped to around 147 EH / s. Following a comment from the State Council of China on Friday last week, the seven-day moving average hash rate remained relatively stable at 150 EH / s.

Some miners have started the migration process from the provinces of northern China to the Sichuan hydropower node. The power plants there are limiting supplies to energy-intensive industries, including bitcoin mining farms, due to the delay in the rainy season. As a result, there was a sharp increase in the demand for electricity by the general public, which should have been prioritized.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has broken through the short-term trend line support around the level of $36,106 and keeps going lower. The market still trades under the supply zone located between the levels of $43,1459 - $41,794, so bears are still in full control of the market and only a strong breakout above the level of $41,096 (38% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down) would temporary change the outlook to bullish. The next target for bears is May 19th low seen at the level of $29,701. The volatility is subdued and the momentum is now negative.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $58,682
WR2 - $52,643
WR1 - $41,961

Weekly Pivot - $35,513
WS1 - $25,163
WS2 - $18,359
WS3 - $7,655


Trading Recommendations:
Even despite the recent correction the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Elliott wave analysis of Bitcoin for Maj 31, 2021



Bitcoin peaked in wave 3 with the test of 64,895 and the ongoing correction is wave 4, which ideally will complete near the 61.8% corrective target seen at 27,169 just to be followed by a new strong impulsive rally in wave 3 towards 91,780 as the ideal target for wave 5 of III. It's possible that wave 5 of III becomes an extension and in this case we will be looking for a rally towards 129,919.

However for now we should stay focused on wave 4 of III that still has a bit more downside to cover before it's complete and wave 5 is ready to take over.


Trading recommendation:
Buy Bitcoin close to 27,169 for the next strong rally towards 91,780 and maybe even higher.




Torben Melsted
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Updated bullish targets for XRP if bulls manage to break above $1.05

XRP/USD is trapped inside a short-term bearish channel since the recent high of $1.05. Price is making lower lows and lower highs and has already retraced 61.8% of the last upward wave from the May 23rd lows.



Red rectangle- major resistance

Red lines- bearish short-term channel

Blue lines - Fibonacci retracements

XRP/USD has the potential to reach $1.20-$1.45. For this to happen we need to get some bullish signals. The first signal will come with a break out of the bearish short-term channel. The channel resistance is at $0.89. A daily close above this level would be a good first signal. The most important signal will come if and when price breaks above $1.05. Assuming that the recent low at $0.79 is not violated, our first target is at $1.21 and our second target at $1.45. Failure to hold above $0.79 could lead to another sell off towards $0.65 and why not lower.




Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Update on our expected short-term bounce in Ethereum.

In our last analysis on Ethereum we took for granted that the next upward wave has already started and price was heading towards $3,200-$3,300 area. Price action that followed did not confirm our view that the pull back was over. Prices pulled back towards $2,170 and are now moving higher again.



The upward bounce from $1,748 to the 38% Fibonacci retracement was the first bounce wave. The second wave pull back reached the 61.8% retracement of the first wave and I'm very confident that we are now starting the third and most probably final upward wave towards the red rectangle area where I expect to see a major lower high. Price is expected to move towards the 50%-61.8% retracement area. This is our target. My most probable scenario is that we make a lower high in that area and then reverse in order to make another corrective pull back that will eventually push price below $1,748. It is still too early to talk about this scenario. We focus on the short-term bounce targeting the red rectangle area.






Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Trading Signal for BTC/USD (Bitcoin) for May 28 - 31, 2021: Buy above $35,000



Today in the American session, Bitcoin is trading above the $ 35,000 level, the Fibonacci retracement zone, drawn from the low of 31,150 to the maximum of 41,110. We note that it has made a correction to the 61.8% of the zone of Fibonacci.

As BTC consolidates above the 61.8% Fibonacci and above 35,000 it is likely that in the next few hours there will be an impulse to the 43,750 resistance zone of the 3/8 murray level.

China appears to be taking Bitcoin and cryptocurrency mining seriously, as it imposed palpable rules that will deter Chinese mining enthusiasts. This could force many individual investors to sell their BTC and buy the UST, as a hedge against volatility.

Iran, another popular center for cryptocurrency mining, has imposed a total ban to make matters worse, and it will last until September 22, according to comments from President Hassan Rouhani on state television.

The recent stance of China and Iran on Bitcoin mining seems to have had a high price on the price of BTC, which has caused it to fall. The odds are that BTC will consolidate for a good long period of time between $43,750 and $30,000.

Our recommendation is to buy above 35,000 with targets at 37,500, 41,150 and 43,750. As the eagle indicator is showing a bullish signal, above 38,000 there will be less difficulty to climb, given that the 200 EMA is located there.


Support and Resistance Levels for May 28 – 31, 2021

Resistance (3) 40,141
Resistance (2) 38,467
Resistance (1) 36,891


Support (1) 35,383
Support (2) 33,641
Support (3) 29,873




Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin and other altcoins to resume bullish trend amid positive news



Bitcoin is likely to regain bullish trend after yesterday's announcement that Apple may implement cryptocurrency into its e-wallets as a payment method. Besides, Elon Musk is not going to sell off bitcoins. Not long ago, there was a meeting with crypto miners about making the mining eco-friendlier.

Although a lot of different institutions and other types of investors have stayed bullish on BTC over the past few years, many analysts still believe that there is room for growth. The crypto industry has not fully reached its potential. According to Harry Hellman, the cryptocurrency niche is still developing. Some assets are more in demand and well-developed, while others are slightly behind their counterparts.

A high level of bitcoin decentralization will help prevent the strong influence and interference of various regulatory authorities in different countries. Central banks may soon adopt permitted blockchains, replacing settlement networks with more efficient ones. Crypto assets reached their peak. So, there was a boom and outflow of various investors, which led to a bear market and a long correction. This is an important step in the evolution of bitcoin, which will help significantly accelerate its mass and global acceptance.

In addition, such reputable investors as Ray Dalio, Michael Saylor, and Kathy Wood, as well as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Lael Brainard, are vocal supporters of crypto assets. Yes, the price of bitcoin instantly changes from various kinds of signals from different countries, both positive and negative. The tweets of various holders or institutions, e.g. Musk or Saylor, may also trigger volatility.

Ray Dalio said that he owns bitcoins, without specifying the exact amount in his portfolio. Nevertheless, bitcoin rose amid this statement. This is why it may soon break above the resistance zone of $ 42-45,000. If so, bulls are likely to take the upper hand. Bulls also need to consolidate at the support level of $42,000. Otherwise, bears will again take control over the market.

The trajectory of BTC will depend entirely on the stock market in the next couple of weeks.






Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for May 28, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
One of the largest payment operators revealed that this would allow users to withdraw their digital assets to third party wallets.

Jose Fernandez da Ponte, vice president and general manager of the company's blockchain and cryptocurrency division, announced the new feature at the CoinDesk Consensus 2021 conference:

"We understand that these tokens are more useful if you can transfer them, so we're definitely exploring how we can let people transfer cryptocurrencies" to "and" from "Paypal addresses.

The news comes just seven months after PayPal first enabled cryptocurrency purchases on its platform. The above decision was then hailed as a milestone in the adoption of cryptocurrencies in the mainstream.

PayPal users will be able to send their cryptocurrencies to other wallets instead of just holding them with PayPal or selling them in fiat currency through a payout. However, neither Reuters nor PayPal have specified when the new cryptocurrency withdrawal functionality will begin to be supported. If this is similar to PayPal's decision to allow cryptocurrency purchases last fall, the first rollover of third-party wallets can be gradual and location-dependent.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has been clearly getting away from the 38% Fibonacci retracement seen at $41,096 and reversed below the local technical support seen at the level of $37,161. The market still trades under the supply zone located between the levels of $43,1459 - $41,794, so bears are still in full control of the market and only a strong breakout above the level of $41,096 (38% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down) would temporary change the outlook to bullish. The next target for bears is May 19th low seen at the level of $29,701. The volatility is subdued and the momentum is now neutral.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $58,682
WR2 - $52,643
WR1 - $41,961

Weekly Pivot - $35,513
WS1 - $25,163
WS2 - $18,359
WS3 - $7,655


Trading Recommendations:
Event despite the recent correction the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for May 28, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
According to a new survey related to cryptocurrencies, the lack of knowledge and understanding of cryptocurrencies is the biggest obstacle to its wider application.

The Economist Intelligence Unit, the Economist group's research and analysis division, has released a new report called Digimentality 2021.

The study was commissioned by the Crypto.com platform and conducted on 3,053 people from February to March 2021.

According to the survey, 51% of respondents said the lack of knowledge is a major obstacle to the adoption of open source cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ether. In contrast, 34% of survey participants cited security concerns as the main obstacle, and 29% indicated difficulty knowing where to buy cryptocurrencies.

Regarding the acceptance of cryptocurrencies by institutional investors, 47% of respondents said the biggest obstacle to adoption was the overall market confidence or understanding of digital currencies. About 32% of respondents cited crypto regulation as a major obstacle to broader institutional acceptance.

By contrast, 43% and 36% said that the structures of financial markets and the volatility of assets were the main obstacles.


Technical Market Outlook:
After the three Pin Bar candlestick patterns were made, the ETH/USD pair had been rejected from the technical resistance seen at $2,861 and the bears had pushed the price below the technical support seen at the level of $2,639. The market still trades inside of the main descending channel and the breakout above the upper channel line is the most important breakout for the bulls right now. The bears are still in full control of the market and the next target for bears is seen at the level of $1,729, $1,633 and $1,544. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $2,201.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $4,688
WR2 - $4,131
WR1 - $2,922

Weekly Pivot - $2,341
WS1 - $1,141
WS2 - $579
WS3 - $181


Trading Recommendations:
Ethereum has lost more than 50% of the recent gains from the lows of March 2020 and now is currently in the counter-trend corrective cycle. The next long-term target for bears is seen at the level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave up) and $1,420 ( January 2018 swing high). The up trend is resumed when the level of min. $3,000 is clearly violated.







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin is firmly settled around $38,000



Over the past day, bitcoin has stood in one place in an unusual manner for itself. The quotes of the first cryptocurrency have been trading around the level of $38,000 per coin for four days, and traders cannot move the "digital gold" either up or down. Is it time to talk about "fair value"? Or are investors just waiting for news from China, for example, or from the USA? Recall that it was the latest news from China and the United States that called into question the rapid recovery of bitcoin. If the PRC really prohibits mining, and the States introduce the mandatory transfer of information about all cryptocurrency transactions over $10,000, this will really hit the bitcoin positions hard. This is not to say that this will kill the cryptocurrency, but it will be extremely difficult for it to recover to the highs of the year. After all, everything depends, as usual, on the demand of investors. The less demand, the lower the rate. Thus, most likely, investors are really just waiting now and do not want to force events. We are inclined to the point of view that the upward trend in bitcoin is over. And for the next year or two, it will consolidate.

Meanwhile, various analytical agencies report that "whales" (large investors) bought 77 thousand coins during the past week, taking advantage of the relatively low price of the digital asset. However, as we can see, this did not affect the bitcoin quotes in a favorable way. It is also reported that the average price at which investors have made purchases over the past year is $37,800. That is, at the moment, the absolute majority of investors have not received any profit. Some got a profit, and some got a loss. The main thing is different - will the demand for "digital gold" recover? From our point of view, if the fundamental background will remain as it is now, it is unlikely. The news that has come in lately is really hitting the prospects for bitcoin. Do not forget that Tesla and its CEO Elon Musk very quickly changed their opinion about bitcoin. A couple of months ago, there were messages about Tesla buying bitcoins and the introduction of the ability to pay for electric cars with bitcoin, while the latest news suggests the opposite. And it is absolutely impossible to predict what other surprises Elon Musk is preparing for the cryptocurrency market. After all, markets are more likely to respond to Elon's posts on Twitter than to messages from the Chinese authorities. Thus, in the near future, it is probably really necessary to wait for the development of events.



Technically, bitcoin dropped twice as close as possible to the level of $30,500 and has moved away from this level not too far. At this time, trading is about $38,000 per coin. Thus, now we still count on the rise of bitcoin quotes to the critical line and for a certain period of consolidation. Nevertheless, if the bitcoin quotes manage to gain a foothold below the $30,500 level, the token's depreciation may continue.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Ethereum: Don't be fooled by correction periods

This is exactly what experts say about the second cryptocurrency. For example, analyst Jim Bianco believes that if an investor can cope with a sharp drop in ether prices, it will ultimately pay off many times over.

"Some of the coins, such as ethereum, will be more expensive in the future," the president of Bianco Research told CNBC. "But you will have to go through a lot more of what we saw last week, in the next few months or so."

According to Bianco, speculative price surges mask a long-term bullish picture as cryptocurrency now has the ability to successfully change the financial system.

Bianco warns that coins are extremely vulnerable to a 50% to 70% drop at any given moment because it is still a new technology. But when the implementation phase is over and the cryptocurrency plays a fundamental role in the real economy, prices, in general, will be significantly higher.

But investors who stayed in the market during the years of the formation of a digital asset will be able to make money on this.

Bianco has owned a crypto portfolio since 2017 and is not a supporter of digital coin speculation. He owns ether, but not bitcoin.

And another well-known expert, Mike McGlone of Bloomberg, stated that "Ethereum is to fintech what bitcoin is to gold," meaning that Ethereum is superior to traditional fintech in the same way that bitcoin is superior to gold as a store of value.

Against this background, the ether cryptocurrency is very promising in the long run. Ethereum is now growing and could outpace bitcoin in capitalization, as the second-largest blockchain platform and its own cryptocurrency are leading the world in a very rapid digital transition.

At the moment, the market capitalization of ETH is $324 billion, which is slightly less than half of the market capitalization of bitcoin. At the same time, it is now higher than that of PayPal, Coca-Cola, Nike, Netflix, Walt Disney, and many other well-known companies.

In the meantime, preparations continue for the launch of Ethereum 2.0 and the transition to the Proof of Stake (PoS) algorithm. As reported today, the total amount of ETH blocked by validators in the Ethereum 2.0 deposit contract has reached a new all-time high of more than five million ethers ($13.7 billion).

Well, the long-term outlook for ethereum looks promising, besides, ether is not as expensive as bitcoin to buy and hold for a long time, at least for the sake of experiment.

But if you are one of the speculators, then here is the forecast for the nearest targets for the second cryptocurrency. The key level now remains 2,803.53 (100 by Fibo Expansion). If it manages to break through and gain a foothold above, including overcoming the psychological level of $3,000 per coin, ETH/USD may continue to rise to 3,246.55 (161.8 by Fibo Expansion).

An alternative scenario is a drop in the ether to support level 2,524.10 if it is not possible to break through the resistance at 2,803.53 now.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021