Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Cryptocurrency market analysis on May 19, 2021



The wave counting on the 4-hour chart of bitcoin is absolutely understandable on a higher scale and very difficult to analyze on a lower scale. Internal wave sets look very ambiguous and hardly fall under the definition of "classical wave counting". However, I want to remind readers that the main thing is to understand the big picture and be able to work out the current wave counting and make money on it. Also, for bitcoin (especially for bitcoin!), The news background is very important, which we will talk about later in this article. Now let's get back to the wave counting. After, presumably, 5 global upward waves were built, a completely logical corrective structure began, which, according to the classics, consists of three a-b-c waves. And all three waves are already well traced on the chart. Thus, one might even assume that the construction of the correctional set of waves has been completed, and bitcoin will now "resurrect". However, looking at the previous global waves and their internal structures, I would not be surprised at all if the trend section starting after April 14 takes on a much more complex form. At the moment, I can say that bitcoin quotes have dipped to the low of the assumed global wave 4. An unsuccessful attempt to break this low will indicate the willingness of the cryptocurrency to move up slightly and build an upward wave.

Bitcoin collapsed today in the truest sense of the word. While analysts and economists were calculating to what values bitcoin could fall, the cryptocurrency fell in a few hours by several thousand dollars and lost about $13,500 of the coin's value today. Thus, we can conclude that all forecasts for the decline in bitcoin have already come true. Now it is important to understand what will happen next with the cryptocurrency. Let me remind you that the two previous upward sections of the trend in 2013 and 2017 also ended, if not with a landslide fall, then with a long decline, which sometimes amounted to 90%. Thus, I will not be surprised at all if this time it will be the same. The news background for digital gold has been very bad lately. Negative news from Tesla, the eternal comments of Elon Musk, who will soon be sued by Tesla investors, news from China, where financial institutions were prohibited from providing any cryptocurrency services, as well as the next problems with electricity in one of the regions of China, I believe only pushed bitcoin downward. The news is really important, but I cannot say that it was because of them that the collapse occurred. They were the kick-start that sparked a massive sell-off in cryptocurrency as the market smelled fried. Everyone remembers that earlier, after periods of strong growth, bitcoin always showed equally strong periods of decline. Therefore, many investors today rushed to get rid of their coins outright.

Based on the analysis, I believe that the three-wave downward wave structure can be completed, but at the same time, the collapse of the bitcoin exchange rate can continue as long as investors do not complete their sell-offs. Thus, now I recommend not to rush with new deals, it is better to wait until the situation calms down, and it will be possible to understand how strong wave c will turn out to be.






Chin Zhao
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Major cryptocurrencies fell to local lows: analysis and forecasts

The cryptocurrency market has been extremely turbulent over the past few weeks. Although there were periods of growth, they occurred in conditioned price ranges. The only exception to this rule was Ethereum, which entered a new stage of development. However, if we take the situation as a whole, it becomes clear that the cryptocurrency market was in nervous anticipation of a certain signal that could launch a full-fledged growth cycle or, on the contrary, a downward trend. As a result, the current situation is closer to the second scenario. Over the past 24 hours, the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency has collapsed by 21%, to $1.75 trillion.

The main altcoin also failed to hold on to safe positions and declined by 26%. Ether was initially close to a technical correction, which was exacerbated by market volatility and high volatility. As a result, as of 12:00 UTC, the cryptocurrency is quoted in the region of $2,500 with an average daily trading volume of $75.5 billion. In the near future, ETH will not show growth, but will only begin to recover its positions. However, the dynamics of changes in the value of the asset in a few hours remains sharply negative (-8%) and indicates that the cryptocurrency may fall even lower, to the level of $2,000. At the same time, a positive news background has formed around the ether, associated with an increase in the security of the asset's network after a recent update. It is this announcement of the developers of the cryptocurrency that will allow the coin to quickly increase the audience for the recovery of indicators.



The Ripple token is also doing poorly, which has fallen by 22% over the past 24 hours. As of 12:00 UTC, the asset is quoted at $1.12. Despite the rather personal positive background, the coin could not avoid the market pressure and its quotes collapsed after the entire market. However, unlike other altcoins, the cryptocurrency shows less sad price changes in a few hours. Most likely, XRP will be the first asset to return to full growth. This is due to the increased interest of investors due to local victories over the SEC, as well as the recent news that Ripple will become a partner of the Bank of Egypt (NBE).



The current decline in the cryptocurrency market takes place when positive local news backgrounds of individual coins are established. Altcoin Polkadot is a vivid confirmation of this because the asset recently set a new historical record, and over the past day has already sunk by 37%. As of 12:00 UTC, the cryptocurrency is quoted at $24.5. Altcoin indicators began to fall rapidly in the last few hours. The coin lost 30% in price, although before that, the cryptocurrency held safe positions. Most likely, this is due to the new collapse of bitcoin, which reached the mark of $33,000, falling by 6% in a few hours. At the same time, Polkadot is preparing to launch the final stage of updating the asset's network. Thanks to the update, users will have the opportunity to combine their investments to support a specific blockchain.



Things are also bad for Litecoin, which over the past day flew out of the top ten by capitalization. The cryptocurrency has fallen in price by 41% and as of 12:00 UTC is quoted at $179, which is the lowest since February 2021. Such a drop in altcoin is due to the deplorable situation of bitcoin and the negative news background, which collapsed the entire market by more than 25%.



Bitcoin triggered the largest recent collapse of the cryptocurrency market. Most of the assets are in the downward trend and are confidently approaching local lows. In the near future, the bearish trend in the market will continue. The news background can also further aggravate the situation of individual coins because it became known that the US authorities also plan to introduce strict regulatory mechanisms for cryptocurrencies. The negative background was slightly diluted by the news that the subsidiary of Saxo Bank will allow customers to trade cryptocurrencies. However, given the current state of affairs, this news is incommensurable in its impact on the cryptocurrency market, and therefore the introduction of additional rules for trading crypto assets can collapse the market even more.




Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin Price Analysis on 19 May, 2021

Bitcoin price analysis highlights BTC's breakdown past its critical support line at $42,000.

The latest price breakdown paves the way for further bearish movements.

If Bitcoin plunges past the the $30,000 region, further downside is certain.



At the time of writing, the number one cryptocurrency is in trouble after plunging below the $40,000 mark during today's early morning trading session. According to a near-term technical perspective, Bitcoin's current downward trend appears unstoppable. However, the critical $30,000 region on the daily chart could be Bitcoin's savior going through ongoing circumstances.

Earlier today, Bitcoin registered a new 3.5 month low, following China's latest decision to ban all transactions involving cryptocurrencies. The latest price dip is the most extensive price breakdown of the current bearish leg. The number one cryptocurrency recorded a low of about $38,500 in today's early morning trading session, marking a 35 percent price decline from the recent ATH of $64,880. Such a price decline was last seen on February 8.

Looking at the near-term technical indicators, the route currently with the least resistance for Bitcoin appears to be the downside. With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) setting camp at the oversold area, there are no signs of early recovery for Bitcoin. At present, investors should tighten their belts and prepare for a further downward stretch.

Such a move has not been seen since the March 2020 market crash. It is safe to say that the bearish trend is unstoppable at present unless the $30,000 region unfolds as a solid support line. At present, investors should hold back until the crypto coin settles above the $40,000 region to go all-in. A decisive close above $40,000 could initiate Bitcoin's recovery





Jan Novotny
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

New power outages in China put pressure on Bitcoin



Bitcoin prices sank during the third trading day of the week to the level of $39,000. As mentioned in previous articles, this is far from the limit of the fall of bitcoin. The cryptocurrency may well fall to the level of $30,500 soon. If before May 10, many investors and traders (mostly large ones) regarded the fall of the first cryptocurrency as a correction, after which the upward trend will inevitably resume, now many people seriously believe that the upward trend is over and now bitcoin can fall very low and spend the next few years at these levels.

Given the fact that the average purchase price of bitcoin by Microstrategy (according to its own statements) is $25,000, the more bitcoin falls, the less profit the company will receive. Moreover, 90,000 coins still need to be sold to make a profit, which is not so easy in a falling market. Other investors made purchases and much higher than the level of $25,000 because it was due to the influx of new investments that bitcoin showed an increase to $60,000 per coin. These investors are already taking losses. Meanwhile, Microstrategy seems to have completely decided to abandon its main activity of developing analytical software and is buying up bitcoins in bundles. This time, the company announced an investment of another $10 million. As you can see, this operation did not stop the market decline.

Meanwhile, news from China reported another power outage in the Sichuan province on May 17. As a result, the computing power of the network fell by 20%. Recall that this is not the first time that the hash rate of the network falls due to power outages in China. It is in China that the largest number of mining capacities in the world is concentrated, so any interruption in their work negatively affects the entire network, the hash rate, and the cost of the bitcoin itself. Thus, any accident at coal mines or simply a shortage of coal for power plants in China may well trigger a drop in the price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Plus, do not forget that recently Elon Musk has become more active again, who began to comment on bitcoin as if it were his own cryptocurrency, causing a drop in the bitcoin exchange rate, and at the same time a drop in the value of Tesla shares. The crypto community is enraged with Musk and has even created a new cryptocurrency "F*CKELON", which is a protest against Musk's uncontrolled tweets regarding cryptocurrencies. Musk is now called a market manipulator, and many experts believe that if the sphere of cryptocurrencies was regulated in the same way as the sphere of securities, then Musk would have already gone to prison for market manipulation.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin under pressure

Bitcoin price fell sharply today. As expected by our previous analysis Bitcoin price has not only reached our $40,000 target but reached our next target of $30,000 as well. There is increased fear among traders of a deeper correction and today we look what can expect next.



Bitcoin has reached the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the first decline and has surpassed the 50% Fibonacci retracement. The RSI in the Daily chart is at oversold levels not seen since last year. It is too soon to call a low. Major Fibonacci support is found at $27,300. Bitcoin price could make a counter trend bounce towards $40,000. A bounce towards that level and a rejection there could lead to another sell off towards $27,000 or lower. Trend is bearish in the short-term and bears are in full control of the trend. Bulls need to recapture $47,000 in order to reclaim the short-term trend.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin: the second blow. Panic intensifies, heading for $29,000

Bitcoin's key support at 41,980.24 is broken. Above it, the main cryptocurrency and the market as a whole still had a chance of recovery. But a blow from China, where a new ban was imposed on cryptocurrencies, intensified the sell-off.

On Wednesday, China banned financial institutions from conducting any cryptocurrency transactions.

The reason for the ban, according to the National Internet Finance Association of China, the China Banking Association, and the Payment and Clearing Association of China, is the high volatility of bitcoin. This is a threat to the economy, property of the population, their security, and the established financial order.

"Cryptocurrency prices have skyrocketed and dropped recently, and speculative cryptocurrency trading has recovered, seriously encroaching on the safety of people's property and disrupting the normal economic and financial order," the institutions said in a statement.

The level of 34,708.27 for bitcoin, which was mentioned in yesterday's review, was not only reached, but also broken at the time of this writing. The next technical target downward for bitcoin is the support level of $28,392.99 per coin if the breakout of the horizontal level of 34,708.27 turns out to be true.

The current volatility is caused by panic. Bitcoin lost almost 22% in 24 hours. First, Elon Musk, who created the trigger for the fall, and now China. How long this story will last is unclear. On the one hand, it will depend on the news background, which will either strengthen sales or, conversely, calm the market down. On the other hand, technical targets downward for bitcoin after the horizontal level of 28,392.99 are at 24,220.97 and 19,418.19. We are not talking about their achievement yet, but the market is very volatile, anything is possible.

One thing is clear: even opening short positions in this situation is very risky. Catching falling knives is a losing strategy. To look for an entry point, in my opinion, is best after the situation has stabilized a little, at least after the close of today's daily candle.






Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading Signal for Bitcoin for May 19 - 20, 2021: Sell Below 37,500$



The price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell below the psychological level of $ 40,000. The market sentiment gripped the widespread panic and caused many investors to sell their positions which caused the cryptocurrency market to lose $ 450,000 million in value.

After a week of successive falls, on Wednesday morning, Bitcoin reached the minimum $36,531. This fall placed Bitcoin at its lowest level since the beginning of February and 45% below its all-time highs.

On the other hand, the Sichuan provincial government demanded that a temporary power reduction be applied, and the hash power of the entire Bitcoin network was drastically reduced for a time.

According to Nature, the increasing energy consumption and environmental impact of Bitcoin mining have caused problems for many countries, especially China. Due to its proximity to specialized hardware manufacturers and access to cheap electricity, most of the mining process took place in China, which according to the Nature study, accounts for more than 77% percent of the hash power of the Bitcoin network.

According to the 4-hour chart, we note that BTC is facing strong downward pressure, and we believe that it could continue for longer, up to the psychological level of $30,000.

Therefore, as long as BTC on the 4-hour charts trades below the 21 SMA, the bias will continue to be bearish. Therefore, a break below 37,500 will be a good selling opportunity up to the psychological level of 30,000.

The market sentiment index shows that there are 83% of investors who are selling BTC. This is a very negative signal which could cause BTC to fall to levels of $25,000 in the medium term.

Our recommendation is to sell if there is a pullback to $43,750 or a break below $37,500 with targets at $31,150 (1/8 of murray). Above $44,000 we should buy with targets in the area of $50,000.


Support and Resistance Levels for May 19 – 20, 2021
Resistance (3) 41,837
Resistance (2) 40,433
Resistance (1) 38,467

Support (1) 33,645
Support (2) 29,873
Support (3) 23,327




Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin crashes after China banned crypto transactions



Bitcoin crashed yesterday, finally losing all the gains it had when Tesla announced its investments last February. It dropped by as much as 40%, from $ 64,770 to $ 39,500. One of the main reasons is Tesla CEO Elon Musk himself, who last week announced that the company will no longer accept bitcoins as payment. Back then, the cryptocurrency decreased by around 15%.



Then, on Tuesday, the People's Bank of China issued a bill stating that digital tokens will not be recognized as forms of payment. They reasoned the high risks associated with it.

Fiona Cincotta, Senior Financial Markets Analyst at City Index, said the massive swings in Bitcoin highlight the speculative nature of cryptocurrencies. She said this will probably not be the last time that prices will jump.



The reason why Tesla decided to stop its bitcoin transactions is the concern about the massive use of fossil fuel Bitcoin mining and transactions consume. And over the weekend, Musk hinted that Tesla might sell its bitcoins, although he immediately retracted it and said they haven't sold any tokens yet. Unfortunately, it caused anxiety among investors.

DWS CIO David Bianco said Musk's comments are helping Bitcoin become a more serious asset.




Andrey Shevchenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading plan for Ethereum for May 19, 2021



Technical outlook:
Ethereum has reversed from above $4,200 levels as discussed earlier. The crypto is soon approaching its projected targets towards $2,750-2,800 levels, which is also fibonacci 0.382 retracement of the entire rally between $90 and $4,250 levels respectively. Traders are advised to prepare taking profits in short positions taken earlier now.

Ethereum is seen to be trading at around $2,900 levels at this point in writing and is expected to find support around $2,750/2,800 zone soon. Thereafter, we can expect a turn again as bulls might remain inclined to push through the next high. Immediate support is seen at $2,750, while resistance is around $3,400 levels respectively.

The overall trend remains bullish in Ethereum, as the trend line remains intact. Only a break below $1,300 levels would be a concern and change the trend to bearish. Watch out for support around $2,700/2,800 levels for the uptrend to resume and probably print new highs above $4,250 levels, going forward.


Trading plan:
Book profits on short positions taken earlier. Aggressive traders remain long with stop @ 2,000, target above @ 4,250.

Good luck!




Oscar Ton
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading plan for Bitcoin for May 19, 2021



Technical Outlook:
Bitcoin has achieved both downside target $43,000 and $41,000 as projected and discussed here since last several trading sessions. In fact, the crypto had dropped through $38,500 lows today, before revering higher again. It looks highly probable that the corrective drop since $65,000 is now complete and Bitcoin is ready to rally further.

Bitcoin is trading around $40,200 levels at this point in writing, and is expected to continue higher from here. Traders are again advised to initiate fresh long positions now with a potential target above $65,000 levels, going forward. Immediate support is at $38,500 mark, while resistance is now seen towards $60,000 levels respectively.

Bitcoin has also bouncing from fibonacci 0.382 support around $41,000 as discussed earlier. If successful, the crypto will resume its uptrend and push through $65,000 mark in the next several trading sessions. Traders might prepare to take full profits on short positions taken earlier and remain bullish.


Trading plan:
Remain long from @ 40,200, stop @ 35,000, target is @65,000

Good luck!





Oscar Ton
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021