Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for May 12, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Ethereum behaves like an express train with many on-demand stops on its route, but no one presses a button. The ETH / USD exchange rate recorded another price record this morning.

At the time of this publication, ETH prices are showing an 11% increase in the last 24 hours, with a 100% rally over 30 days. In the last 361 days, this gives a result exceeding 2215% (according to CoinGecko).

As the price rose, the ETH capitalization, which exceeded $ 500 billion for the first time in history, also had a new milestone.

Currently, ETH is worth more than the financial services giant Visa, which last month began a pilot settlement of USD Coin (USDC) stablecoin transactions on the Ethereum blockchain.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has made a new all time high at the level of $4,363, so all the drop after the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made has been retraced already. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $4,500 as the up trend continues.The zone between the levels of $4,000 - $3, 980 will now act as a short-term demand zone. The key short-term support is seen at the level of $4,204. The momentum is strong and positive, so it supports the bullish outlook for ETH.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $4,545
WR2 - $4,714
WR1 - $4,394

Weekly Pivot - $3,656
WS1 - $3,369
WS2 - $2,577
WS3 - $2,290


Trading Recommendations:
The longer term up trend on the Ethereum continues despite the local counter-trend corrections. The next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $5,000. The key long term technical support is seen at the level of $3,881, so only a weekly candle close below this level will invalidate the bullish scenario.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin whales have started to get rid of their coins



Bitcoin has been trading quite oddly lately. First, while many cryptocurrencies are growing and increasing their capitalization, Bitcoin has not been able to update its own highs for about a month. On the one hand, this is fine as it's not every day that bitcoin grows. On the other hand, it was usually Bitcoin that led the rest of the cryptocurrencies, but not now. Secondly, bitcoin continues to be located inside the Ichimoku cloud, regularly working out its upper and lower lines, and bouncing off them. For example, yesterday BTC bounced off the Senkou Span B line, which again provoked an increase in quotes. For the fifth or sixth time, the cryptocurrency has returned to the 61.8% Fibonacci level, which is equal to $58,000. Thus, in recent weeks, Bitcoin has generally been trading in a fairly narrow range. As we said earlier, the level of $58,000 is holding back quotes from further growth, but at the same time, the correctional scenario is not being realized. We still believe that bitcoin has more chances for a correction. Recall that bitcoin is nowadays an exclusively investment instrument. And since there is no certainty that it will not collapse by 80-90% of its value tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, any category of investors can start getting rid of this cryptocurrency if it stops growing. There are no reasons to keep it on the balance sheet at all if there are enough cryptocurrencies that have stronger growth potential and are now in a clear bullish trend. Actually, we have already talked about the flow of capital from bitcoin to ethereum and other altcoins.

Yesterday, it became known from the Delta crypto platform that the number of addresses on which 1000 BTC and more are concentrated has decreased to a minimum since the beginning of this year. In the last 5 days alone, their number has decreased by 3% to the value of 1943. Of course, these are data on only one stock exchange, nevertheless, the trend is obvious. Bitcoin whales are starting to slowly sell their coins. Maybe they do not have plans to completely get rid of all the coins, but this is again the flow of capital into other, alternative instruments, which we talked about earlier. It should also be noted that there are few people who want to invest in bitcoin at a price of almost $60,000, much less than at a price of $20-40 thousand. Thus, against the background of this reduction, more experts are now inclined towards the corrective variant of the bitcoin movement. It should also be noted that the fundamental background for bitcoin has not been the most favorable lately. There was little positive news, but there was enough negative news. The most important thing now is to understand how the big players in the market are set up. From our point of view, the outflow of capital from bitcoin to other cryptocurrencies will continue. All forecasts saying that bitcoin will cost $100,000 this summer is great, but to realize these figures, a new inflow of investments is needed, and investments are now flowing into altcoins.



In technical terms, bitcoin continues to be below the 61.8% Fibonacci level, so now a correctional scenario is looking promising again. We are still waiting for it to fall to the previous local minimum of about $47,000 per coin. At the same time, the rebound from the Senkou Span B line again postponed the implementation of this scenario for some time.




Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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CEO of Tesla, Elon Musk, is ready to start accepting Dogecoin as a car payment



During the other day, the Tech King of Tesla and part-time "Dogefather" asked a leading question with a background to his Twitter followers: "Do you want Tesla to start accepting Doge?". This is a deliberate action to artificially raise the price of an ascending cryptocurrency. Since after a recent interview, where Musk jokingly called Dogecoin as a gimmick, the asset has lost 35% of its value. In this case, the "Elon Effect" has not been canceled. On Thursday, this cryptocurrency reached a record value of $ 0.73, and then sharply declined, scaring investors and those who hurriedly rushed to invest in it. Although many experts have warned that the Dogecoin has already peaked, this is too much of a growth of 700%, and it is taboo to take risks now by investing all your savings in it.

Dogecoin has noticeably fallen after a recent interview. So now, Elon is doing everything he can to return the upward trend and the growth of this cryptocurrency. In March, Tesla allowed purchases in BTC, and it was a commotion in the market. After that, the company acquired $ 1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin, making the leading cryptocurrency accelerate rapidly. If Tesla starts accepting Dogecoin as payment, the company will definitely add, let's say, 100,000 Dogecoin to its portfolio. The cheapest model now costs around 0.6 BTC or 78,000 DOGE.

The Twitter poll became incredibly popular, gaining almost 3 million responses, and received approval. Musk recently announced that his other company, SpaceX, will accept Dogecoin as payment and sponsorship of the lunar mission. This can help it increase its price, since Bitcoin is still unstable. It is worth noting that Dogecoin is the asset that is most similar to ordinary money and is convenient for transactions.

The billionaire's tweets have raised concerns with the Securities and Exchange Commission, but not so long ago, claims of a cryptocurrency pretext have yet to lead to some regulatory challenges.

On another note, Tesla's shares subsequently plummeted to 4% in early trading, as this huge car company flatly rejected plans to purchase land to expand its Shanghai plant.




Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Ethereum: fundamental factors of the strength of the second cryptocurrency

Ethereum renewed its all-time high again, rising above $4,000 at the moment. Meanwhile, bitcoin is in its consolidation range, and the technical benchmarks have not undergone major changes.

Therefore, today we will consider the second cryptocurrency and the fundamental prerequisites for its further growth. Last week it was said that the ether is likely to be overheated. But while a significant correction is not visible, everything is limited only to consolidation.

Meanwhile, as the price rises, so do the number of active Ethereum addresses. Now, this figure is higher than the previous historical value from January 2018. Analytical company Glassnode reports that on Sunday, May 9, their number reached 7.94 million. In January 2018, the previous high was 7.14 million.

It is noteworthy that in three days when there was a rapid increase in ETH/USD, the number of active Ethereum addresses increased by 100,000. And since the beginning of the year, their number has increased by 86%.

One of the incentives for the growth of the second cryptocurrency is the popularity of DeFi - decentralized finance, as Ethereum creates the basis for this direction. Against this background, experts believe that it will not be difficult for a cryptocurrency to reach a capitalization of $1 trillion.

Shivam Thakral, CEO of the Indian cryptocurrency exchange BuyUcoin, notes that the growth in the number of transactions, active addresses, and the size of commissions are factors that confirm the fundamental strength of Ethereum.

Philip Gradwell of Chainalysis also highlights the upside potential, as the outlook for increased use of ether creates demand for it and therefore drives price appreciation.

It is worth noting that in the first quarter, the Ethereum network experienced congestion and an increase in transaction fees. But there are more and more active addresses, the commissions of market participants do not bother. This means there is a chance for further price strengthening. In addition, the number of searches on Ethereum is increasing, while interest in Bitcoin is decreasing.

As noted in previous reviews, such dynamics may be due to the difference in the price of the first and second cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin has become very expensive for small retail investors. It is possible that while interest in cryptocurrencies continues to grow, Ethereum will benefit more from this than the main coin.

Let's move on to price benchmarks. ETH/USD has technically confirmed 100% Fibo Expansion level (purple line) as support. This means that the closest target for growth is the historic highs set on Monday and the level of 161.8% Fibo Expansion (near 4211.07) passing just above this mark. So far, the second cryptocurrency has a sufficient margin of resistance. And if it is broken, we will apply a new Fibonacci extension to determine the following targets.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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ETH hits new record, LTC and XRP continue to fluctuate: analysis and forecast for major altcoin pairs

A redistribution of responsibilities and authorities is observed in the cryptocurrency market recently. In the second quarter of 2021, altcoins took the first positions, which historically are much better than bitcoin during this period. In recent weeks, a picture has emerged in which ETH is leading the market, while other assets are trying to keep up. However, after a long and powerful growth, the indicators of cryptocurrencies were overtaken by a wave of correction. As a result, over the past day, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization has decreased by 4.5%.

The main culprit for the slight downturn was ether, which recently set a new all-time high of $4,158. After that, the charts of the asset show a slight decline, to $3,900, where the cryptocurrency again tried to cross over $4,000 with varying success. As of 12:00 UTC, these attempts were unsuccessful and ETH fell by 3.4% per day. At the same time, indicators of daily trading volumes remain at a decent level of $83 billion and are ahead of similar indicators of bitcoin. Ethereum's total capitalization surpassed Bank of America, Walmart, and Mastercard. Ether is now the top 1 cryptocurrency in the world due to active growth and constantly improving algorithms on the network. The situation is aggravated by the problems of bitcoin, which significantly oversaturated the market and sags under the pressure of bears. All these factors were the result of a significant increase in the percentage of ETH's dominance in the market - 18.5%. In the near future, the asset may continue to grow if it manages to gain a foothold at an indicator above $4,000. However, it will be quite difficult to do this due to the negativity that the report of the giant JPMorgan brought to the news agenda, according to which ETH should be worth $1,000.



XRP, which has been trampling in the corridor of $1.40 to $1.60 for more than two weeks, is more deplorable. The cryptocurrency lacks momentum to help the asset overcome the challenging $1.60 milestone. Considering the recent SEC statement, the decline in activity regarding the Ripple token is fully justified and investors are wary of the coin. In addition, the news that Ripple could become a public company after the completion of the trial was fully played by the market and did not help the cryptocurrency to get out of the difficult corridor. Taking into account the correction that has covered the market, XRP indicators may sink even lower if the asset does not have enough support at the current level of $1.42. The cryptocurrency has come close to this dangerous mark, having fallen in price by 10% over the past day.



A similar situation is observed with Litecoin, which has been marking time for more than a week. The cryptocurrency follows the momentum of the ether but has no real prerequisites for overcoming the difficult milestone of $360. Based on this, the coin fell by 10% per day and rolled back to $350. In addition to the correction that swept the market, JPMorgan experts decided to add a little negative, who were very skeptical about the main cryptocurrency at the moment. According to analysts, the real price of Ethereum is 75% lower than the current market price. This news, which coincided with the correction, may negatively affect investor sentiment and drag the quotes of all coins with it. Even less positive was the news that the Indonesian authorities are imposing a tax on profits from transactions with cryptocurrency. Recall that recently the introduction of such a tax was announced in South Korea.



Given the local correction and negative forecasts for the ETH quotes, the decline in the cryptocurrency market may drag on. Soon, it will become clear how market participants will react to the negative news background and how much this will affect the quotes of ether, which at this stage is pulling the entire market with it and contributing to the growth of small cryptocurrencies.





Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Christine Lagarde and Andrew Bailey continue to criticize cryptocurrencies.



Recently, Andrew Bailey commented on bitcoin. The head of the Bank of England believes that no one should invest in "digital gold" unless you are ready to lose everything. According to the chairman of the BA, bitcoin can devalue at any time, which will lead to serious losses for any investor or trader. The same opinion is shared by the head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, who yesterday said that cryptocurrencies are used for money laundering and financing illegal operations. However, such rhetoric from the heads of central banks is not new. Recall those representatives of the Fed, ECB, BA, and other central banks of the world have repeatedly criticized bitcoin and its "brothers." However, none of them introduced any bans on the use, production, or storage of "bitcoin" and other cryptocurrencies. Thus, we can conclude that central banks and governments may not be happy with cryptocurrencies, but they benefit even to them. Therefore, the chances that bitcoin will someday fall under the ban of the Fed or the ECB are currently tending to zero.

Meanwhile, the experts of Arcane Research said that the recently fashionable concept of "altcoin season" has already begun and is in full swing. They cite the same data as many others: the bitcoin dominance index has fallen below 50%; bitcoin itself, unlike ether, cannot continue to grow; the capitalization of many altcoins has been growing for four months. Experts also note that earlier altcoins, when they showed growth, largely depended on speculators, but now more and more investors are buying altcoins for the future, hoping that they will also grow in price, like bitcoin.

At the same time, billionaire investor Mark Cuban said that bitcoin is much better than ordinary gold, as it is easier to buy and easier to store and trade it. He also spoke positively about Ethereum, saying that this cryptocurrency is much better, faster, and cheaper than its digital counterparts. Cuban also criticized the banking system for its high dependence on people and buildings. In his opinion, cryptocurrencies are fully automated and instantaneous.



Ethereum yesterday updated its maximum value around the level of $ 4200. As you can see in the illustration, the ether quotes are much higher than the ascending channel, which indicates an extremely strong "bullish" mood of market participants. So far, there are no prerequisites for the beginning of the correction. The price failed to overcome the resistance level of $ 3,988, and the $ 4,000 mark is psychological. Therefore, a pullback downwards is more likely until the moment of overcoming this level.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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XRP/USD remains under pressure, vulnerable to more downside.

XRP/USD price made another dive yesterday towards $1.30 after getting rejected once again at the major resistance area of $1.55-$1.65. Short-term trend is vulnerable to a move towards $1.18-$1 as long as price is below $1.65.



Red rectangle - resistance

Green rectangle - support

Blue lines - Fibonacci retracement

Price has so far retraced 61.8% of the rise from $0.88 to $1.76. Support is the recent low at $1.22. We warned traders in a previous analysis that a break below $1.35 would lead to a move towards $1.18 which was our next pull back target. Price so far reached $1.22. Breaking below $1.22 now would be a sign of weakness. This could lead to a move towards $1 or even lower. On the other hand bulls need to recapture $1.57 in order to hope for a trend reversal. So far price has made a higher low at $1.22. If bulls manage to make a higher high above $1.76 then we will have a strong bullish sign implying that a move above $2 is very close.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin medium-term analysis and expectations

So far Bitcoin price action has not been much different from our expectations. At the end of April we warned bears that a bounce was coming in Bitcoin prices and we should expect a move towards $57,000 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline.



Price made a high just above $59,000 and just above the 61.8% retracement level. Since then price has turned lower towards $54,000 and the rejection could very well lead to a new lower low than that of April. Price has formed a higher low and if it continues to trade weak, we should see more lower lows and lower highs in price action.



Red lines - Fibonacci extensions

Bitcoin has the potential to revisit the April lows around $47,000 and there are increased chances of breaking them also. In fact our favorite scenario is bearish as long as price is below $59,500. Our target is at $42,000 and with a small possibility of extending towards $30,000. This scenario will be confirmed if price breaks below the April low around $47,000. I consider the bounce from $47,000 only a short-term counter trend bounce as I believe Bitcoin has already started a major correction phase.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Mark Yusko: Bitcoin will grow to $250,000 in the next 5 years



Bitcoin has started to "target" the level of $47,000 again, but the world is still talking about how much bitcoin will cost in the future. For example, Creek Capital CEO Mark Yusko stated that digital gold will grow to $250,000 over the next 5 years, adding to a collection of crazy predictions. Yusko compared bitcoin to major companies such as Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google, claiming that these companies have reached $1 trillion capitalization more slowly than bitcoin. To be honest, we don't understand how bitcoin can be compared to large companies. Bitcoin is just a piece of code that doesn't do any good on its own, it is a cryptocurrency that was originally created as an alternative to fiat money outside the control of central banks and governments. Companies, on the other hand, are specific assets, production facilities, buildings, real estate, money, assets, goods, intellectual property. That is, everything that, unlike bitcoin, has its own value and cannot fall in price to 0.

Yusko also compared "digital gold" with ordinary gold and said that if all the gold produced in the world is worth about $4 trillion, then bitcoin should also grow to this mark (in terms of capitalization). Thus, each coin will have to be worth about $250,000. It doesn't matter that if 4,000,000,000,000 (dollars) are divided by 21,000,000 (coins), you get the number $190,000. We, in turn, also want to remind you that all forecasts from the category "Bitcoin will cost a million dollars because it is "digital gold" and it is better than Apple shares" are, of course, very interesting, but this does not mean that this will be the case in reality. Recall that it is beneficial for everyone who already owns bitcoin, especially bitcoin whales, if the cryptocurrency continues to grow. And this can only be achieved if the flow of new investors or investments is inexhaustible. Hence, there are regular predictions that bitcoin will cost $ 100,000 or$ 250,000 to attract as many new traders and investors as possible. There are no specific mathematical calculations and analyses in these forecasts.



Technically, bitcoin has completed the upward trend on the 4-hour time frame. The quotes have consolidated below the upward trend line, and, from our point of view, this is a rather powerful signal to continue the downward movement. The bulls are still not strong enough for the growth of bitcoin to continue and the cryptocurrency to renew its highs. At present, Ethereum takes the lead, which just set a new cost record on Monday and, according to experts, is ready to grow to $10,000 per coin.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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BTC analysis for May 11,.2021 - First downside target at the price of $55.350 has been reached. Potential for next target at $53.000

Technical analysis:


BTC has been trading downwards as I expected. THe price reached my first downside target at $55.345 and it is heading for the second target at $53.000.


Trading recommendation:
Watch for potential selling opportunities on the rallies with the next downside targets at $53.000 and $48.140. The main cause for the most recent drop was the rising wedge pattern and momentum decreasing on the upside...




Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021