Cryptocurrency Analysis

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When will bitcoin crash?



Over the past weekend, the bitcoin exchange rate fell by $15,000. However, the crypto community is in no hurry to bury the "digital gold". Now it is still very easy to find crypto enthusiasts who believe that bitcoin will grow to both $100,000 and $500,000. However, it is just as easy to find crypto skeptics who continue to insist that bitcoin will sooner or later collapse completely. Our task is to try to determine the moment when bitcoin can begin to fall. The drop in quotes last weekend by $15,000 may well be the beginning of a powerful fall. To understand what's what, one should take into account a huge number of fundamental factors and news, as well as various kinds of messages. But even if you are a guru of fundamental analysis, it is still impossible to consider all the factors.

No one can ever predict at what point whales will start selling their coins, or whether they will start to do so at all. It is no secret that, as in the rest of the world, a very small number of accounts hold a significant amount of coins. In the case of bitcoin, some studies show that up to 90% of coins are concentrated in 2% of accounts. Perhaps, in reality, not everything is so terrible, but the truth is somewhere nearby. Now imagine if at least 10% of those 2% start selling bitcoin for any reason. If the sale of 10,000 coins results in a 1-2% change in value, then what happens if 100,000 coins are sold? We are only talking about the fact that it is impossible to predict when a collapse will occur. One can only assume that it will happen. And we believe that this time is not far off.



Take a look at the illustration above. This is the timetable for the movement of the bitcoin in 2013-2014. Strong growth (within 7 weeks the quotes rose 9 times), then a slow but strong fall (-80% of the value over the next 57 weeks).



Here is a chart of the bitcoin movement in 2017-2018. The same thing happened. Strong growth (within 32 weeks, bitcoin grew 13 times), after which a rather slow decline, but at the same time strong (-80% of the value over the next 52 weeks).



And here is what is happening now on the market. Strong and sharp growth (over the past 24 weeks, bitcoin has grown 6 times). Doesn't it look like anything? Pictures, if not identical, then very, very similar. Thus, we do not believe that bitcoin will crash down right now, but the likelihood of this is high. The growth of bitcoin is already too strong and abrupt. Not a single asset in the world can constantly move upwards at such a speed. It should also be noted that the "bitcoin crash" is a very unpopular topic on the internet and in the media. Readers, traders, and investors want to see news with the headline "Bitcoin will be worth $100,000", not "Bitcoin will fall soon." Thus, less news that predicts the collapse of bitcoin does not exactly mean that the probability of its fall is 80% less than the likelihood of further growth.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Trading Signal for Bitcoin BTC/USD, for April 21 - 22, 2021: Key level $56,250



The leading Cryptocurrency BTC / USD, this morning of the American session is trading above the SMA of 21 and below the 6/8 of Murray, showing a bullish signal.

Investor sentiment is very changeable, for example when Bitcoin rises generates strong euphoria among investors, and when BTC consolidates and ranges it generates anxiety, but a rapid decline causes investors to panic and BTC falls a lot faster.

It is undoubtedly a very volatile asset and the price is anything but stable, sometimes we have seen a 10% to 15% drop in one day, which should not surprise us.

Having said this, now we are facing a possible euphoria of buying the BTC again. In the chart, we note that the BTC is challenging the resistance zone of $56,250. If it consolidates above this level, the target for the next few hours will be in $59,350 and $62,500.

Conversely, a consolidation below $54,000 could see a drop to support $50,900, and breaking this level could challenge the psychological level of $50,000 for a further bearish attempt to levels of $43,500.

For now our recommendation is to buy above $56,250 as long as it remains above the 21 SMA, also the eagle indicator is showing an imminent bullish rebound.


Support And Resistance Levels For April 21 - 22, 2021
Resistance (1) $57,170
Resistance (2) $58,131
Resistance (3) $59,365

Support (1) $54,366
Support (2) $52,032
Support (3) $50,702




Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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BTC analysis for April 21,.2021 - Donwside continuation in play and potential for re-test of $50.640

Further Development



Analyzing the current trading chart of BTC, I found that BTC is in the bearish continuation phase and that there is potential for re-test of the $50.650.

My advice is to watch for selling opportunties on the rallies with the downside targets at $50.650 and $44.000.

Stochastic oscillator is showing fresh bear cross, which is good confirmation for further downside continuation.





Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Trading plan for Bitcoin for April 21, 2021



Technical outlook:
Bitcoin price action remains sideways for the past few trading sessions, after having dropped from sub $65,000 through $52,000 lows over the last week. The crypto is expected to print one more low around $49,800 mark, before pulling back higher. Also note that potential remains for a decline towards $41,500/600 levels, which is fibonacci 0.382 retracement of the entire rally between $3,850 and $65,000 levels respectively.

Bitcoin price action remains subdued and is trading around $55,200 levels at this point in writing. Immediate short term price support is just below $50,000, while resistance stays around $65,000 levels respectively. A break below $50,000 support will confirm further downside towards $43,000 and $41,500 levels respectively, going forward.

The overall structure continues to remain bullish until prices break below $25,000 mark. For now, Bitcoin should remain well supported around $41,500 levels to resume its uptrend towards $75,000 and higher. Also note that previous swing support is also seen towards $43,000 levels and hence probability for a bullish turn remains high.


Trading plan:
Remain short, add more @ 60,000/61,000, stop @ 65,000, target @ 43,000, 41,000.

Good luck!




Oscar Ton
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

XRP/USD remains under pressure, vulnerable to a move towards $1

XRP/USD is trading at $1.35 after having made a low at $1.1216. However the bounce that followed was not strong enough to push price above the important short-term resistance. Short-term trend remains bearish as long as price is below $1.50-$1.60 and there is still danger of seeing another short-term lower low towards $1-$0.90.



Green rectangles- horizontal resistance levels

Black line - trend line resistance

Red rectangle - horizontal support

Red lines - Fibonacci retracement levels

XRP/USD is making lower lows and lower highs. Price touched the black trend line resistance earlier and got rejected. Bulls need to break above the black trend line resistance in order to hope for a move higher towards $2. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is important support and a price level very likely for turnarounds. A new lower low below 61.8% Fibonacci level is still possible as long as price is below $1.50-$1.60. If price breaks above $1.50-$1.60 we can then talk about an important low in place. The decline from $1.97 I consider to be a correction to the big upward move and I expect soon to see a major low being formed and an upward reversal.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Trading plan for Ethereum for April 21, 2021




Technical outlook:
Ethereum had rallied towards $2,350 levels yesterday as expected counter trend. The crypto seems to be now ready to plunge below $2,000 mark and drag lower through $1,600 at least. After rallying through all-time highs above $2,500 over the last week, Ethereum bears are now looking poised to take back control for the next several trading sessions.

Ethereum is seen to be trading around $2,287 at this point in writing and a push below $2,000 will accelerate the drop further. Immediate resistance stays at $2,550, while support comes in around $2,000, followed by $1,600 levels respectively. Also note that fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the rally between $230 and $2,550 is seen around $1,600 and hence probability for a bullish turn remains high.

The overall uptrend that begun from $89.50 levels in March 2020 remains intact for now as prices remain in the buy zones of both support trend lines. Please note that it is possible for Ethereum to drop through $1,400 mark before finding support again and turning bullish. Only a break below $1,000, will threaten the above bullish structure.


Trading plan:
Remain short again stop @ 2,550 target @ 1,600 and @ 1,400

Good luck!





Oscar Ton
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin forecast for April 21,2021

1. How to make money on cryptocurrencies?

In order to make money on cryptocurrencies, you should develop an effective money management strategy. To begin with, let us consider conservative money management strategies:

- Standard lot. Novice traders should start managing their capital with the standard lot method. In this case, a trader constantly trades the same lot size, often the minimum one. The lot size can be increased only if a trader makes a big-enough deposit. Then again, trading is carried out with a standard lot.

What are the advantages of this money management strategy? It helps beginners gain experience in the market by trading real money with limited risks. Also, it helps traders test their trading strategies. A good trading strategy is the one profitable in pips. If a strategy is not profitable when trading a standard lot or it brings near-zero profits, then it needs to be revised. Using other more sophisticated money management techniques will not improve a bad trading strategy. Aggressive methods such as martingale or averaging can only give a temporary semblance of profit. At the same time, risks can significantly increase.

How long can you trade with a standard lot for? - Until you gain confidence in your trading strategy. The strategy should produce good statistics. Meanwhile, statistics should reflect at least 100 transactions and several months of trading. Only then can you move on to more complex money management methods and increase the lot.


2. Volume analysis of BTC from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)

Bitcoin has stopped falling. Bears have recently been trying to push the price down, but bulls remain strong. Let us consider the levels of the highest traded volume from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). These levels indicate bullish activity.

19.04.21 – the level of the highest traded volume (POC – PointOfControl) – 56,515
20.04.21 – the level of the highest traded volume (POC – PointOfControl) – 56,120

The POC has moved down. The price is below yesterday's level of the highest traded volume. The market is in the downward trend. Based on volume analysis, you can sell bitcoin today.


3. Trend analysis

Our second step is to check the short-term, the mid-term, and the long-term trends. You can enter positions when all three trends are in line. In this forecast, the trend is analyzed with the help of an exponential moving average:

Long-term trend – a blue EMA 1152 on the H1 chart, which is an alternative to EMA 48 on the D1 chart;

Mid-term trend – a red EMA 288 on the H1 chart, which is an alternative to EMA 48 on the H4 chart;

Short-term trend – a black EMA 48 on the H1 chart.



The EMAs are intertwined. The trend reverses. The price is in line with EMA 48 and EMA 1152, which indicates that the market is a flat. The long-term trend, the mid-term trend, and the short-term trend are not in line. Therefore, you can enter long and short positions today based on trend analysis.


4. Japanese candlestick analysis

Japanese candlestick analysis is the third step of this trading strategy. Let us analyse yesterday's daily candlestick:



The white daily candlestick closed upward. Its low is below the low of the previous candlestick. It is a Hammer candlestick pattern, headed up. According to Japanese candlestick analysis, you should consider entering long positions.


5. Conclusion. Statistics

Volume analysis – SELL
Long-term trend – BUY/SELL
Medium-term trend – SELL
Short-term trend – BUY/SELL
Japanese candlestick analysis – BUY

Conclusion: You can buy and sell bitcoin in a short term on April 21, 2021, since various analyses provide different forecasts.

Only statistics can reveal how efficient a trading strategy is. In this forecast, trades are carried out in a separate account. Trades are conducted in four instruments: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and BCH/USD.


Statement:


I do not open new trades because of a flat in the market.

The risk per trade is no more than 1%. A Stop Loss is placed beyond the high/low of the day, depending on the direction of the trade. A Take Profit is not set. A Stop Loss is moved beyond the extreme points of the upcoming sessions.

Since trading is carried out on daily charts, this recommendation is relevant throughout the day.

Trade with the trend and you will generate profits!





Maxim Petrov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ethereum Ends Its Correction!

Ethereum bounced back after registering a temporary decline. Now the cryptocurrency is trading at $2,304.16 versus $2,055.00 yesterday's low. Technically, the bias remains bullish despite the short-term retreat.

A minor decline was expected after ETH/USD reached a strong resistance area. The downside momentum was stopped by a former higher high which now acts as strong static support.

Ethereum could resume its growth after moving sideways in the short term. Bitcoin's growth could force ETH/USD to approach new all-time highs.

ETH/USD LOOKS TO TRADE HIGHER AGAIN!



ETH/USD has found support right on the $2,040 level. The false breakdown with great separation through it followed by a retest signaled that the price could come back higher as the decrease is over.

Now it has jumped above the weekly pivot ($2,246.64) which is seen as a bullish signal. It has reached the second warning line (WL2) which represents a dynamic resistance. Registering a valid breakout above the WL2 signals a strong growth ahead.


ETHEREUM FORECAST!

A minor consolidation above the pivot point ($2,246.64) followed by a new higher high, jump above $2,365.75 is seen as a bullish signal. The R1 ($2,542.22) could be used as a first upside target.




Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for April 21, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Less than a week after the listing of the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the US, Nasdaq is expected to start trading options for Coinbase Global.

According to a media report, a Coinbase representative said COIN.O options will be available on Nasdaq on Tuesday, April 20. Introducing stock options will provide investors with a new way to invest. Stock options are the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a share at a specified price, known as the strike price, on or before the expiry date. This message follows Coinbase's direct listing. On the first day of trading, the company's shares oscillated between $ 429.54 and $ 310.

Reuters estimates that Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong sold about $ 292 million worth of shares on the first day of COIN trading. According to documents filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, Armstrong sold 749,999 shares in three lots at prices ranging from $ 381 to $ 410.40 per share, for a total income of $ 291.8 million, but this is less than 2% all his shares.

Information on the Coinbase Investor Relations website revealed that 12,965,079 shares worth more than $ 4.6 billion were sold at the close on Friday at a price of $ 344.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair keeps consolidating between the levels of $57,330 - $53,290 after a bounce from the level of $50,313 had been capped at the level of $57,333, which is just below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down seen at the level of $57,717. The key short-term technical resistance is located at the level of $58,345 and the nearest technical support is seen at $55,501. The longer time frame chart still shows the up trend is intact.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $77,128
WR2 - $70,098
WR1 - $62,765

Weekly Pivot - $56,867
WS1 - $48,657
WS2 - $42,481
WS3 - $34,723


Trading Recommendations:
The bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $50,000 is clearly broken on the e daily time frame chart.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for April 21, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
The Facebook-backed digital currency project Diem could launch its first stablecoin as early as 2021 as a small-scale pilot project, according to an anonymous source.

A source cited in a media report said the Swiss nonprofit The Diem Association still intends to launch a US dollar-backed stablecoin pilot later this year.

In November 2020, the association already announced its plans to limit the introduction of a US dollar-linked stablecoin in January, but months have passed and the currency has yet to see the light of day.

Stablecoin Diem is a greatly scaled down and revised version of Facebook's original vision for a global digital currency, native to its platform, that would be tied to a basket of multiple fiat currencies. In addition to ditching the Libra name, commentators pointed to profound changes to the developing Diam project in response to striking backlash from global regulators and nation states.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has retraced more then 61% of the last wave down and made a local high at the level of $2,359 during the bounce. This level has been used to test the short-term lower channel line for a test and the higher prices were rejected as the Pin Bar candlestick had been made. The market reversed towards the local technical support located at the level of $2,274 and is trading around this level currently. Any violation of this level would lead to another wave down towards the level of $2,201 and $2,098.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $3,314
WR2 - $2,2828
WR1 - $2,524

Weekly Pivot - $2,211
WS1 - $1,914
WS2 - $1,617
WS3 - $1,300


Trading Recommendations:
The longer term up trend on the Ethereum continues despite the local counter-trend corrections. When the correction is terminated, the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $2,500. The key long term technical support is seen at the level of $2,000, so only a weekly candle close below this level will invalidate the bullish scenario.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021