Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Short-term view on XRP/USD for April 19, 2021

XRP/USD made a low today around $1.12 having made a high this week at $1.9617. So far price has retraced 61.8% of the latest rise after the break out at the beginning of April. Price has broken below our horizontal support levels and has reached our next pull back target area which was around $1.10.



Blue line - support (broken)

Orange line - resistance

Green rectangle - horizontal resistance

Red rectangles- horizontal support levels

Red lines -Fibonacci retracements

XRP/USD has already broken the blue trend line support and as per our analysis this was a sign that a deeper correction was coming. In our last analysis we warned traders that as long as price was trading below $1.80-$1.84 price was vulnerable to a move towards $1.10 specially if $1.40 was broken. Price has now reached the second horizontal support area and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. This area of support is very important and we already witness a bounce off this support. In order to confirm a major low in place, price will need to break above the orange downward sloping resistance trend line. This resistance is at $1.61. Until then, there is still danger of a deeper pull back below $1.00. 61.8% retracement levels are usually trend change levels, so there are increased chances that price turns around from this support area and starts its next leg higher. If the low is in and we are starting the next bullish move, our target is at $2.55 and next at $3.41.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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1 million traders lost their funds due to the collapse of bitcoin



Well, at the time of writing this article, bitcoin continues to lose value. If we take into account not only today's drop in quotes (-$10,000) but also the fall of the previous days from the last maximum, then in total, "digital gold" has already lost $ 14 000 (if we count to today's minimum). Thus, at the moment, the "cue ball" was cheaper by $ 14,000, which is approximately 20% of its maximum value. Minus 20% in a couple of days because in one of the provinces of China there were several accidents at coal mines, which caused power outages. According to the largest cryptocurrency exchanges, almost $ 10 billion worth of transactions has been liquidated in the last 24 hours. It is easy to guess what these transactions were. The largest forcibly closed transaction was $ 69 million. After today's collapse of the entire cryptocurrency market(which has not yet been completed), the bitcoin dominance index is 50.6%. Recall that a week ago, this figure was 54%. This suggests that bitcoin is losing its appeal in the eyes of investors, and other cryptocurrencies are gaining it. This is exactly what we talked about earlier. Bitcoin has become too expensive and few people want to buy it. Especially against the background of the development of other cryptocurrencies.

Meanwhile, the head of the Binance cryptocurrency exchange, Changpeng Zhao, said at the conference that the cryptocurrency industry needs state regulation. "If I were a regulator, I would move the rules from the world of finance to the cryptocurrency sphere," he said. Zhao also said that the crypto community needs protection and, in his opinion, it can only be provided by regulation at the level of legislation and the state.

At the same time, it is the states that can not only protect the crypto community but also bury it. At least, the Turkish authorities are also blamed for today's drop in bitcoin quotes, which have decided to completely ban the ability to pay for goods and services with cryptocurrencies on their territory. Some experts are afraid that if other countries follow the example of Turkey, it may negatively affect the rate of the number one cryptocurrency. The problem is that, as we said earlier, it is not profitable for almost any state to have such a cryptocurrency on its territory, the turnover of which can not be tracked. Accordingly, there is no doubt that most countries in the world will struggle with cryptocurrencies. Some with taxes, some with prohibitions, some with strict regulation.

Well, while bitcoin is "aiming" for a new collapse, experts have estimated that the estimated fortune of the alleged creator of bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto, may be more than $ 50 billion, even taking into account the latest drop in the exchange rate of the "cue ball". According to various sources, the mysterious Nakamoto my own from 750 thousand to 1.1 million bitcoin coins, which at the current exchange rate are estimated at more than 50 billion dollars. Thus, the unknown Mr. Nakamoto can now be included in the list of the 20 richest people on the planet. And this is still without taking into account the coins Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin SV, and Bitcoin Gold, which were formed as a result of forks.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Problems with the supply of electricity in China have brought down bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market



On Saturday, the world's first cryptocurrency showed signs of wanting to start a correction. And on Sunday, it fell by $ 10,000, having immediately worked out the second support from those that we gave - $ 52,300 per coin. Some experts immediately said that the panic in the cryptocurrency market was due to the fall in the hashrate of the leading mining pools, which decreased due to several floods and accidents at coal mines in China. It is reported that the hashrate (bitcoin mining speed) has fallen by 40%. At the same time, this 40% drop was triggered by power outages in just one province of China. Also, along with bitcoin, the quotes of all other cryptocurrencies collapsed. However, it is still unclear whether what happened is just an accident, or whether this is the beginning of a protracted correction or a global decline in "digital gold"? To understand this, you need to understand what happened in China. There were problems with electricity due to accidents, thus, a drop in hashrate, but what does this have to do with the exchanges? After all, bitcoin fell in price because market participants began to sell it, and not because the hashrate fell or because of accidents at coal mines. Thus, traders could witness today how stable the current cryptocurrency market is. By and large, nothing terrible happened. Bitcoin will be mining slower than usual for a while, that's all. But this led to a collapse of quotes by $ 10,000, which means that many bitcoin owners simply lost their nerves. By the way, the accidents in China are a good explanation for what is happening for those who are interested in maintaining the "bullish" trend. After all, now the main thing is to prevent a panic in the market. Of course, now the most famous crypto experts are trumpeting that the "bullish" trend persists and this time is a great time to buy bitcoin on the cheap. However, from our point of view, bitcoin has all the chances of a collapse right now. First, many exchanges and stock markets will not open until tomorrow. So tomorrow will be the key day. If institutional investors support the sale of the "cue ball", then it can go to the figure of $ 40,000 per coin, or even lower. Secondly, we have repeatedly written in recent days that the bullish trend is weakening. This can be seen in any long-term illustration, even with the naked eye. Bitcoin is already extremely overbought, and the influx of new investors is drying up. Everyone who wanted to has already bought bitcoin. Therefore, from our point of view, the fall was in any case brewing. And the electric crisis in one of the provinces of China is just a push.



In technical terms, the main thing happened – the quotes went beyond the ascending channel. However, this can be stated with confidence only tomorrow, if today closes below the channel. Even though bitcoin went below the channel at $ 8,500, this does not mean that it will close today also below this level. However, if the consolidation takes place, the strongest signal for a strong correction will be received. It will also be important where the day ends relative to the three support lines. If, for example, the quotes are below $ 52,300, then the chances of moving to $ 44,600 will increase many times.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

The Central Bank of Turkey has banned cryptocurrencies. Who's next?



On Friday, the world's number one cryptocurrency began a new round of corrective movement, which may be the very beginning of the end that many traders are waiting for. We have repeatedly said that even though absolutely all technical indicators now indicate an upward trend, a serious correction for bitcoin has been brewing for a long time. Even though every day more and more investors of all calibers and stripes are showing a willingness to start working with bitcoin and other digital assets, the price for one coin is already too high. Moreover, we have already said several times that the upward trend is weakening. To understand this, you don't even need to be a specialist. In the illustration below, four local highs of value are visible, and each subsequent high was at a smaller distance from the previous one. Simply put, investors are "dragging" bitcoin up with the last of their strength. We have already said that if the inflow of bitcoin investment is constant, the cryptocurrency can grow non-stop at least up to $ 1,000,000. However, if we still consider more realistic options, now is a great time to start the correction. Moreover, the fundamental background contributes to this. From April 30, 2021, all payments in cryptocurrencies will be banned in Turkey. The Central Bank of Turkey has clarified that payment service providers will not be allowed to develop business models in which cryptocurrencies are used in payments. The bank explained that the reasons for this decision were the lack of regulation of the cryptocurrency segment, too high volatility, as well as the frequent use of crypto assets for illegal purposes. It is also reported that this ban does not yet apply to trading cryptocurrencies on exchanges. However, as they say, bitcoin is not only gaining popularity around the world but also falls out of favor with the Central Bank and governments. Recall that in India, they are also going to pass legislation that will completely ban the mining, storage, and transfer of cryptocurrencies. Central banks and governments are the main enemies of bitcoin and all its "brothers". Although many experts believe that bitcoin will no longer be banned in the United States, this does not mean that it will be impossible to ban it in the rest of the world. Central banks do not need a cryptocurrency that they cannot control. Therefore, in any case, the rules of the game with bitcoin will only get tougher around the world. Question: where is the limit?

Meanwhile, the investment company Ark Invest bought shares of the cryptocurrency exchange CoinBase for another $ 110 million. Recall that CoinBase just this week began to be listed on the NASDAQ, and various funds of Katie Wood, who is considered one of the most successful investors of the last generation, have already invested more than $ 350 million in the stock exchange. However, this news did not support the demand for bitcoin. So far, the technical picture is much more important for digital gold.



In technical terms, the most important thing now is the ascending channel. The trend is weakening, if the quotes leave the channel, that is, they are fixed below it, this will be a very powerful signal for the beginning of the correction. From our point of view, the correction may be strong, and bitcoin will sink to at least $ 44,000 per coin. The illustration shows three important support levels, which will be the targets for correction.




Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for April 16, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
AXA, the second largest insurance company in Europe, became the first Swiss all-line insurer to offer its clients the option of paying their bills with Bitcoin, which was made possible by cooperation with the renowned cryptocurrency broker Bitcoin Suisse. Bitcoin payments will be accepted for almost all AXA products with the exception of life insurance due to regulatory barriers. AXA has cited the accelerated digital transformation of the global economy during the coronavirus pandemic as a key factor in its choice of cryptocurrency integration into its day-to-day operations. However, the insurer notes that already in 2019 it conducted market research, which shows that about a third of respondents aged 18 to 55 already owned or were interested in cryptocurrencies.

According to Claudia Bienentreu, head of open innovation at AXA Switzerland, the acceptance of Bitcoin payments is "AXA's response to the growing customer demand for alternative payment solutions as new technologies play an increasingly important role."

The configuration on the client side will be a simple online transfer with a reference number: the Swiss franc debt amount will be converted into an equivalent amount in Bitcoin and the indicated exchange rate will remain valid for a specified period of time. During this period, clients will not bear any currency risk and AXA will not charge any additional fees to clients who choose to pay their bills in Bitcoin rather than in fiat currency.

AXA itself will not keep any Bitcoin received on its balance sheets. Instead, Bitcoins will end up in the hands of the Bitcoin Suisse cryptocurrency broker. It's worth noting that while AXA itself does not add any Bitcoin payment fees, Bitcoin Suisse includes its own 1.75% commission when calculating the Bitcoin / Swiss Franc exchange rates for AXA clients.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has made a new ATH at the level of $64,786 and then broke below the level of $61,226, which is a 38% Fibonacci retracement level of the last wave up. The last local low was made at the level of $61,052 and this level is below the short-term trend line support as well. The next target for bears is a Fibonacci cluster located between the levels of $60,132 - $60,305. The momentum remains strong and the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $70,000. The immediate support is seen at the level of $60,000, but the key short-term technical support is located at $54,719. The weekly time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $68,058
WR2 - $64,489
WR1 - $62,269

Weekly Pivot - $58,989
WS1 - $56,726
WS2 - $53,045
WS3 - $51,108


Trading Recommendations:
The bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $54,719 is clearly broken on the e daily time frame chart.







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for April 16, 2021

Crypto Industry News
Dubai's Department of Economic Development, or "Dubai Economy", and the Dubai International Finance Center are working to expand their KYC platform to financial institutions across the UAE.

MCFD announced the planned expansion of the project in a communication published on its website. According to the announcement, both organizations signed an agreement to introduce the necessary solutions to extend the KYC platform to the entire UAE.

The project was first announced in February 2020, and by July 2020, 120 companies had been included. MCFD said the Blockchain-based KYC platform currently holds nearly half of all electronic KYC records in the UAE.

Addressing the need to accelerate the adoption of the Blockchain KYC system, MCFD said the platform will enable more efficient sharing of verified KYC data between licensing authorities.

For Abdulla Hassan, CEO of the Corporate Sector, Dubai Economy, Dubai is an integral part of the government's efforts to position the UAE as a viable global investment destination:

"After launching in 2020, the platform is becoming increasingly important not only in simplifying bank account opening procedures for investors, but also in enabling banks to digitally receive verified KYC data. This initiative has a positive impact on attracting business and the global Ease of Doing Business Ranking in Dubai and the United Arab Emirates, "he said.

The KYC Blockchain Consortium is one of the many examples of the positive stance of the Emirates government dealing with crypto and Blockchain technology.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has made a new all time high at the level of $2,541, but the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made at the top of the rally, so the market reversed towards the level of $2,381. The momentum is strong and positive, so the up trend might be continued with occasional pull-backs. The larger time frame trend is up as well and there is no indication of the up trend termination. The immediate technical support is located at the level of $2,290 and $2,201.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $2,536
WR2 - $2,369
WR1 - $2,274

Weekly Pivot - $2,100
WS1 - $2,008
WS2 - $1,819
WS3 - $1,739


Trading Recommendations:
The longer term up trend on the Ethereum continues despite the local counter-trend corrections. When the correction is terminated, the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $2,500. The key long term technical support is seen at the level of $1,412, so only a weekly candle close below this level will invalidate the bullish scenario.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bank of America: 74% of professional investors see bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as a bubble



It is impossible to deny the fact that Bitcoin is gaining more and more popularity both among ordinary people and investors. But, as many studies say, most investors are still not ready to deal with bitcoin. For example, a survey conducted by the Bank of America of 200 professional investors who have more than $500 billion under their management showed that about 74% consider bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to be a normal financial "bubble". About 16% do not think so, and 10% are undecided about the answer at all. What does this mean? First, bitcoin is still far from the most popular tool for investing among large private investors and institutions. Many people are not ready to invest in the "digital gold" for the same reasons that we have listed many times: cryptocurrency is too volatile and risky. And secondly, it suggests that bitcoin has a huge growth potential. Recall that the last surge in the growth of bitcoin occurred in 2020, when the whole world was covered with a crisis and a pandemic. That is, it is precisely due to the influx of institutional and large private investors who, in a panic, invested their money in something that could save them from inflation and the depreciation of other assets, that bitcoin showed such a strong growth. And if this is about 10-15% of the total number of potential investors that entered the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin can really become more expensive at least up to $1 million per coin. The remaining 85-90% may also eventually become interested in bitcoin. In addition, 33% of investors surveyed consider shares of high-tech companies to be the most popular asset, while 27% believe that the most popular asset is cryptocurrency. In general, even if the correction of bitcoin begins in the near future, as many experts say, everything is still going to the fact that bitcoin will continue to rise in price. And it really can be numbers much higher than $100,000 per coin.

It was also estimated that it took bitcoin just 12 years to reach a capitalization of $1 trillion. It took Amazon 24 years to reach that figure, Apple 42 years, and Microsoft 44 years. Of course, this is not quite a correct comparison, since a cryptocurrency that was originally created as a currency is not the same as a company and/or its shares. However, the difference is quite interesting.

At the same time, the head of the asset management company BlackRock, which manages more than $8 trillion, believes that bitcoin will never be a substitute for fiat money. Larry Fink said in an interview with CNBC that despite all the positive news of recent times (Coinbase listing on NASDAQ, for example), he does not see an increase in interest in bitcoin among institutional investors. "We're studying it. We make money on it, but I'm not here to tell you that we're seeing broad-based interest by institutions worldwide," he said.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Cathie Wood's Ark Invest buys Coinbase shares!



Slowly but surely, Bitcoin continues to grow. The ascending channel continues to contain the bitcoin quotes, and investors have not yet had a burning desire to start selling coins of the number one cryptocurrency in the world. Recently, there has been some positive news in the cryptocurrency sector that could help bitcoin rise more. There were reports of large purchases of bitcoin by Liberty Mutual, Starr Insurance, and Millennium, and these purchases would be enough for bitcoin to continue its growth. According to experts, out of 19 million mined coins, about 14 are dead weight on their wallets and are not turning around in any way. Thus, there is a maximum of only 5 million coins in circulation, and any transaction for 10,000 BTC or more can lead to a change in the exchange rate by 1-2%. In addition, just a few days ago, the listing of shares of the Coinbase cryptocurrency exchange began on NASDAQ, which also had a positive impact on all cryptocurrencies.

It is noteworthy that Coinbase shares immediately began to be bought up by large investment funds, one of which is the well-known Ark Invest, which is managed by one of the most famous investors in the world, Cathie Wood. In the States, they say that everything that Cathie Wood touches becomes more expensive. Therefore, as soon as the news about the Ark Invest investment appeared in the media, the value of Coinbase shares rose even more. All this says only one thing. Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies continue to gain popularity in general as a segment. Ordinary people and investors are increasingly accepting bitcoin and other tokens into their lives, learning how to handle them, and trying to understand their true nature. By and large, the popularity of bitcoin is only growing with each such news.

There has been no negative background for bitcoin recently. News about a possible ban on cryptocurrencies in India is a thing of the past. The crypto community pays more attention to the positive background. Moreover, there is a clear ascending channel now, in which the quotes are located. Thus, it will be very easy and simple to identify a possible drop in the cryptocurrency.



In technical terms, the overall picture remains the same. The upward trend continues and now bitcoin has another benchmark in the form of an ascending channel, and there are also two targets – the nearest resistance level of $65,400 and the next psychological level of $70,000 per coin. As well as three supports: $44,600, $52,300, and $56,000. The consolidation of quotes below the channel will be a signal for the beginning of a strong correction.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin price declines after Coinbase listing

Coinbase listing has probably been one of the most discussed topics in the market for the last two days. What really surprised investors was the fact that bitcoin fell after surging on Tuesday. Did the followed negative reaction reflect traders' disappointment with this event? Unlikely. More probably it was just a technical retracement. Market participants decided to buy on rumors, sell on facts or place Take Profit order. At least, there are still chances that bitcoin can resume growth as the current support level is not broken.

Let's briefly discuss how yesterday's Coinbase trading debut went. The initial price for the COIN share (shares are traded under ticker on the Nasdaq) amounted to $250. However, at the beginning of the session, the price totaled $381. The highest price was $428.94. When reaching it, the price dropped. At the time of writing this article, the share price came in at $334. The minimum value was $310.

Thus, Coinbase managed to achieve a capitalization of $100 billion. Compared with the initial estimates, the listing can be considered a success. Yet, it is crucial to monitor how the share price will behave in the short term.

Market experts remain optimistic. They think that this is a landmark victory for all crypto enthusiasts. Besides, cryptocurrencies have been finally recognized by other investors. Ben Lilly, the founder of Jarvis Labs, believes that this is a tipping point for the market as it may increase the demand for cryptocurrencies. Mike McGlone, a crypto strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, predicts the growth of bitcoin to $70,000 per coin. Steen Jacobsen, an economist at Saxo Bank, does not rush to make rosy forecasts and prefer to watch the market reaction.

Meanwhile, Katie Wood's Ark Investment rushed to buy Coinbase shares at yesterday's listing for three of her exchange-traded funds (ETFs), spending $246 million. Moreover, Ark even sold some Tesla shares, which caused some confusion. Notably, a month ago, they made a mind-boggling prediction that in 2025, Tesla stocks would cost $ 3,000 apiece.

Now, the indirect share of Ark's investment in bitcoin has grown as the company has both shares of Tesla and Coinbase.

The technical picture on the chart has cleared up a bit. However, the forecast has not changed. The area of 1048.64 - 61759 and the level of 61.8 of the purple Fibo Expansion, which serves as support, are not broken. The price bounced up from them. This means that BTC/USD may rebound to the historical highs set on April 14.

There is an alternative scenario as well. If the pair breaks below the level of 61.8 on Fibo Expansion and the area of 1048.64 - 61759, located at the previous historical highs of bitcoin, it may enter a deeper correction






Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin's global impact and adaptation is more important than overcoming the $100,000 milestone



The impact of Bitcoin on the global market is much more important than Bitcoin's path to $100,000. Experts say that the essence of the problem when it comes to cryptocurrencies is the potential and adaptation of bitcoin in the technological world within 10-20 years. After companies such as Tesla, Visa, Square, Mastercard, and others entered the game and allowed accepting payments in BTC, the global adaptation of the digital asset is even closer than it seems.

Big changes in the way the US government regulates digital assets are coming soon. Many analysts also highlighted the potential of using blockchain technology for decentralized storage.

Blockchain technology can help improve overall speed and reduce the cost of digital storage in the future. There are a number of business models that take advantage of this opportunity with the publicly available special cryptocurrency payment system Filecoin, one of the most impressive strategies at the moment.

There is a growing trend for companies to accept this digital currency as a form of payment. This entails the beginning of a new era in the world of digital currencies. Many banks support the desire of customers to own cryptocurrencies and other digital assets and are ready to provide this method whenever possible. Bitcoin is not something that will gain momentum, but rather become an ambassador from the world of cryptocurrencies, and its influence on Wall Street, investors, and the world will be indescribably huge.





Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021