Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for April 9, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
The US financial and banking services organization State Street Corporation will enable cryptocurrency trading.

Soon after the oldest US-based bank entered the cryptocurrency space, so did the second-oldest - State Street Corporation. The banking giant with assets under management of $ 3 trillion will enable London-based Puremarkets to use the Currenex platform to trade digital assets.

According to today's statement, the London-based company has established cooperation with the American banking giant - State Street Corporation, founded in 1792.

With this collaboration, Pure Digital will use the State Street banking grade trading platform called Currenex to enable cryptocurrency trading. The process will be fully automated with a high-throughput OTC market for digital assets with physical delivery and maintenance by the bank.

Institutional clients will be able to take advantage of the bilateral loan, enabling the effective use of capital and control for all participants.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has been continuing the up move since the low was made at the level of $1,941, so there is a chance for a sustained bounce back up above $2,100. So far the local high was made at the level of $2,077, but bulls are still making pressure to bounce higher towards the ATH located at the level of $2,149. The nearest technical support is seen at the levels of $2,043 and $2,033.


Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $2,774
WR2 - $2,442
WR1 - $2,286

Weekly Pivot - $1,965
WS1 - $1,803
WS2 - $1,504
WS3 - $1,345


Trading Recommendations:
The longer term up trend on the Ethereum continues despite the local counter-trend corrections. When the correction is terminated, the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $2,500. The key long term technical support is seen at the level of $1,412, so only a weekly candle close below this level will invalidate the bullish scenario.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ethereum Imminent Breakout!

Ethereum (ETH/USD) ended its decline and now is pressuring the immediate critical resistance. A breakout could confirm a further growth towards new highs. ETH/USD increased as the price of Bitcoin increased as well after the last decline.

As long as Bitcoin is bullish, Ethereum may resume its upwards movement. ETH/USD is bullish but we still need confirmation that the crypto resumes its upwards movement.


ETH/USD LOOKS TO TRADE NORTH!


ETH/USD is back below the first warning line (WL1) of the descending pitchfork after retesting the weekly pivot point ($1,965).

Technically, only a valid breakout above the warning line (WL1) and a new higher high could really validate an upside continuation.

The upside scenario could be invalidated if ETH/USD drops and stabilizes under the pivot point ($1,965).


OUTLOOK!

Jumping and closing above $2,144 could announce further growth and could offer us a new long opportunity. the $2,500 could be used as an upside target.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

JPMorgan CEO: Cryptocurrencies threaten the traditional banking sector



As Bitcoin continues to hover around the level of $60,000 and keeps failing to maintain the upward trend, its popularity does not subside, and the forecasts that continue to be voiced by the crypto community continue to amaze the imagination. Keep in mind that forecasts from people who benefit from the further growth of bitcoin are not likely to be reliable. It is natural that, figuratively speaking, the Winklevoss brothers, crypto billionaires, will say that bitcoin will grow to unprecedented heights, since they are the owners of a large number of coins that will become more expensive with the arrival of new investors on the market. Therefore, the main task of crypto millionaires and billionaires is to convince the market that bitcoin will continue to grow as long and as strong as possible. However, many analysts also support the further growth of bitcoin quotes. For example, Bloomberg analysts believe that bitcoin will be able to conquer the mark of $400,000 per coin this year, drawing analogies with the bullish trends in 2013 and 2017. It is true that Bloomberg analysts also fear that the rise in US bond yields will cause an outflow of investors from the cryptocurrency market, since these more classic instruments will also begin to protect investors from possible inflation, but they are much more stable and reliable than bitcoin. According to Bloomberg Crypto analysts, Bitcoin is still at the price determination stage.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said in a letter to the bank's shareholders that any digital assets should be more tightly regulated by central banks and governments and have a clear legal status. Dimon believes that cryptocurrencies allow you to conduct financial transactions without using the services of the banking system, respectively, the demand for banking services with the growing popularity of cryptocurrencies may fall. Dimon also warned of the rise of "shadow banking." The head of JP Morgan also noted that at the moment, various US government agencies and political forces have different views on bitcoin. There is no clear opinion on what to do with the digital gold. Also, Dimon believes, not everyone in the government is aware of the damage that cryptocurrencies can cause to the financial and banking sector. "If the banks do not strengthen their positions, they risk becoming a thing of the past," said the head of JPMorgan.

At the same time, one of the oldest US banks, State Street, plans to enter the cryptocurrency segment this year and start trading cryptocurrencies. It is reported that the bank participated in the development of a trading platform for banks on digital assets. This trading platform will be designed for institutional investors, and the launch of trading is planned for mid-2021. However, this is not the first news that large banks are beginning to provide institutional clients with access to trading in the cryptocurrency market. According to many experts, the future of bitcoin now depends on institutions, and not on private owners, as in 2017 or in 2013. Thus, the more large investors will invest in bitcoin, the more stable the cryptocurrency will be. That is great, but even so, Bitcoin needs new investments. By the way, keep in mind that none of the experts say that bitcoin can now be traded in the corridor of 50-60 thousand per coin for many years. No one expects that the volatility will decrease and bitcoin will become stable. Everyone still treats digital gold not as a digital currency, but as an investment.






Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Crypto billionaires are growing in number. PayPal co-founder considers bitcoin "China's financial weapon against US dollar"



Nothing remarkable occurred during yesterday's Bitcoin trading. The quotes are still near the psychological level of $60,000 per coin and can neither start a correction nor continue the upward trend. Over the past 2-3 weeks, it has been repeatedly mentioned that each subsequent turn of the upward trend turned out to be weaker than the previous one. But Bitcoin did not have such 10-day downtime during the current upward trend. Thus, from our point of view, bitcoin is still preparing for a strong correction, which is likely to be the beginning of another end. It is not advisable to bury bitcoin ahead of time (especially when it is not far from its absolute highs), but the option with a loss of value by 50% or more can not be completely excluded. Of course, this does not mean that bitcoin will collapse and will no longer rise. A new upward trend will begin, within which the figure of $100,000 can be conquered. But at the moment, it looks like the current trend is over or nearing completion.

Meanwhile, Forbes magazine has updated its ranking of billionaires. Back in 2020, there were only three of them, and now the list includes 12 cryptocurrency owners. The most famous crypto billionaires, the Winklevoss brothers, occupy only the fourth and fifth place in the ranking of the richest people. The one who holds the first place is the head of the FTX crypto derivatives exchange Sam Bankman-Fried with a fortune of $8.7 billion, while in second place is the head of Coinbase Brian Armstrong and the head of the Binance crypto exchange Changpeng Zhao with a fortune of $6.5 billion. In third place is Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen with a fortune of 3.4 billion evergreen currency. However, it is obvious that the Forbes list has been replenished with new crypto billionaires due to the growth in the value of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, and not because the billionaires themselves were expanding their business by their own hardwork in 2020.

At the same time, PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel expressed a very interesting idea. He believes that bitcoin may eventually turn out to be China's "financial weapon against the US dollar," which he voiced publicly at an event of the Richard Nixon Foundation. As cryptocurrencies threaten fiat money, Thiel suggested that bitcoin could be considered as China's weapon against the US dollar. Recall that more and more experts are voicing the opinion that bitcoin can displace the US dollar from its place as the main reserve currency of the world. This is the opinion, for example, of the chief strategist of Morgan Stanley Investment Management Ruchir Sharma. Shamar said words to the effect of "Politicians are confident that in response to the coronavirus pandemic, they can print dollars in any quantity without undermining the status of the reserve currency. But this factor was the reason for the emergence of the dollar's competitors - cryptocurrencies."



Technically, nothing changes. Buyers still cannot overcome the level of $60,000, but the downward correction (full-fledged) has not yet begun. It seems that bitcoin is now in a dangerous position, when any large sale can trigger an avalanche of sales of the digital gold. We still believe that BTC is now vital for the influx of new investors, otherwise most of the market participants may consider that its current value is the maximum and start to get rid of it. Thus, if the price is fixed below any support line (all three are indicated in the illustration), we will expect a fall to the next one.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin may skyrocket to $400,000

Recently, Bloomberg analysts have given a new mind-boggling forecast for bitcoin. According to Bloomberg bitcoin (BTC) analysts, bitcoin could climb as high as $400,000 this year. Notably, this is not the first bullish forecast for the virtual currency.

"To reach price extremes akin to those years in 2021, the crypto would approach $400,000, based on the regression since the 2011 high. In September, 180-day volatility on the crypto about matched the all-time low from October 2015. From that month's average price, bitcoin increased a little over 50x to the peak in 2017," they stressed.

In order to demonstrate similar dynamics, based on the regression from the high values of 2011, bitcoin should reach $400,000 per coin.

Naturally, sometimes history repeats itself. Nevertheless, at the same time, success in the past in the financial markets does not guarantee success in the future.

Experts note that the bullish momentum began after the third halving of bitcoin occurred. Then the miners ' reward for mining fell to 6.25 bitcoins. After the previous second halving, which occurred in the summer of 2016 and after the first one at the end of 2012, there were periods of growth of bitcoin for a year and a half. "The year after a supply cut (halving) is what 2021 has in common with 2017 and 2013, along with subdued volatility. The December 2017 peak represented a 50-fold rise from the average price observed in October 2015, when the 180-day volatility reached lifetime lows," analysts pointed out.

According to the Bloomberg Crypto report, the period during the year after the halving was a common sign of three periods of growth. Besides, in that period, volatility was low. In September 2020, the indicator of the long-term level of volatility hit minimum values. At that time, the price of bitcoin was hovering near $11,000.

Currently, demand for bitcoin may increase amid rising US Treasury yields. Gold will lose its luster with investors amid such a turn of events. They will flock to the crypto market.

From the previous review, you probably remember the influence of large investors on the dynamics of the crypto market. So, recently, the popular cryptocurrency analyst, Willy Foo. predicted the explosive bullish rally for bitcoin. This growth cycle is not over yet, so Wu recommends refraining from opening short deals on BTC.

Meanwhile, as expected yesterday, bitcoin was able to consolidate above the support level formed by the level of 100 on Fibo Expansion (55779.73). It is recovering, maintaining a small margin to the resistance area of 58340.66 - 59517.79. After testing it, the cryptocurrency may probably try to break it once again. If it breaks above this level, BTC/USD may reach a historical high. If not, bitcoin will enter the sideways channel.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

A Bitcoin whale transferred almost $300 million worth of BTC to another wallet



With the Bitcoin humpback whale transferring nearly $300 million worth of BTC this week, bitcoin whales are actively transferring their crypto assets on a large scale. Many whales periodically appear to carry out huge transactions, thereby introducing other crypto enthusiasts into a stupor and euphoria.

According to the monitoring, the day before yesterday, the user transferred 5,193 BTC to an unknown wallet. Bitcoin underwent a minor correction on Wednesday after BTC fell almost 4%. Bitcoin is trading today at around $57,700 with a market cap of $1.04 trillion. The $1 trillion market cap of BTC works well for a digital currency, because the power of the Bitcoin network significantly exceeds the $1 trillion market cap.

More than 1.98 million bitcoins with a market capitalization of more than $1 trillion have been pegged. Bitcoin whales play an important role in the price dynamics of BTC, as the movement of large quantities creates a shortage of supply. In addition to the last monumental transfer of 5,193 BTC, another bitcoin whale moved 3,357 BTC worth more than $190 million.

The institutional adoption of BTC has grown rapidly since the beginning of 2021. The world's largest cryptocurrency achieved its best Q1 2021 results for the first time since 2013. MicroStrategy, Tesla, and Square have accumulated a huge amount of digital currencies over the past few months. Earlier this week, MicroStrategy announced that it had acquired an additional $15 million of BTC. The business analysis company now has 91,000 BTC in reserve.






Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin remains in bullish mode respecting channel support

Bitcoin continues to respect the channel support and bulls still have hopes for a new all time high. For this to be achieved, bulls need to break above $59,500-$59,800 price level. We explained in a previous post that this neckline resistance if broken will activate an inverted head and shoulders bullish pattern.



Blue lines - bullish channel

Red rectangle - neckline resistance

BTC/USD continues making higher highs and higher lows inside the long-term upward sloping channel. Price has touched for the second time in the last 15 days the lower channel boundary and is bouncing off of it. For the up trend however in order to remain intact, bulls will need to do more work. Bulls will need to break above the red rectangle resistance. If this resistance is broken, target is $75,000.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Short-term technical analysis on XRP/USD for April 8, 2021

XRP/USD after making a three year high at $1.1144 has pulled back towards important Fibonacci support level. Price is bouncing off the Fibonacci support and we take a look at the key price levels and possible scenarios for the next few sessions. As we mentioned in previous posts XRP/USD has broken above major resistance area of $0.70-$0.80. Price has now pulled back towards the 38% Fibonacci retracement and is bouncing off this support.



Black lines - Fibonacci support levels

Blue line - short-term support trend line

XRP/USD is moving higher from the recent low at $0.8537. Price so far back tested the upper boundary of the previous resistance area which is now support. The short-term upward sloping blue trend line so far is being respected. As long as price holds above this line we expect a move to new highs above $1.11. If this blue line of support is broken, there are increased chances that price could fall towards the 50% or even 61.8% retracement levels. The bullish scenario for a new high above $1.11 is not cancelled even if price pulls back towards $0.70. This would be a normal back test after the huge break out. Such a pull back would be considered as a buying opportunity.




Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading Signal for BITCOIN BTC/USD, for April 08 - 09, 2021: Market sentiment turning sour



The Bitcoin BTC / USD remains for several days consolidating above the EMA of 200 around $56,250, and below $60,000, little by little the bullish sentiment is fading, and a strong correction could occur in the coming weeks.

A report by Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone predicted that Bitcoin could soon approach $400,000, based on past Bitcoin bullish movements.

Although it does not give a specific time frame of when that peak could be reached, the report specifies that during the next quarter the price is likely to break the resistance of $60,000 and head towards $80,000.

Although this data does not support BTC sentiment, this apparent consolidation suggests that the market is waiting for a catalyst for its next cycle either bullish or bearish, so we must be careful.

A daily close above $60,000 is likely to rise to Murray's +2/8 around $62,500. $70,000 is expected to exceed this level.

On the contrary, a daily close below $56,250, we should expect a sharp decline to await a consolidation towards the $50,000 support zone, also called a psychological level. Below this level is the strong support of $40,000.

Our recommendation is to sell below $55,800 and buy above $56,250.


Support And Resistance Levels For April 08 - 09, 2021

Resistance (1) $59,799
Resistance (2) $60,460
Resistance (3) $61,012

Support (1) $56,728
Support (2) $54,909
Support (3) $53,676





Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Local correction or protracted recession: traders lost more than a billion amid fall in BTC, XRP, and ETH quotes

The last few days have been favorable for the growth of cryptocurrencies, however, on April 8, quotes of major assets went down. Over the past day, the digital coin market has risen in price by 0.2%, which indicates the beginning of a downward movement of crypto asset indicators. At the same time, the news background remains positive, which at this stage does not prevent cryptocurrencies from falling below psychological levels.

Over the past day, bitcoin indicators increased by only 0.6%, but on the night of March 8, the asset's quotes fell sharply by 3%, which provoked significant losses among traders. Long positions of the BTC/USD pair with a total volume of $613 million were liquidated on cryptocurrency exchanges around the world. The closing of margin positions happened when bitcoin reached $55,500, but as of 12:00 UTC, the asset rose to $56,300. Bitcoin's daily trading volume also continues to decline, reaching $54.5 billion.



It is already becoming obvious that the main cryptocurrency cannot overcome the $60,000 mark for more than a week, and this may indicate a decrease in the upward momentum. Based on the charts, the market provides the asset with serious support just at the level of $50,000-$55,000. Soon, bitcoin will not be able to overcome the $60,000 mark, since the process of price consolidation is taking place at this stage. In this regard, the asset quotes are under pressure in the region of $57,000-$60,000, which does not allow it to overcome the difficult milestone. In turn, this was the beginning of a local correction, which will allow the crypto asset to continue to grow in the future.

More than $310 million was lost by crypto exchange users due to the forced closure of positions in the XRP/USD pair. The Ripple token fell from $1.01 to $0.900, which triggered the forced closure of long positions. However, as of 12:00 UTC on April 8, the asset resumed its growth and rose in price by 7.4%. At the same time, cryptocurrency quotes cannot gain a foothold above $0.940. Also, a sharp drop in daily trading volumes, which amount to $12.9 billion, testifies to a possible rollback of positions.



Ether indicators significantly sagged, which provoked losses of crypto-exchange users by $283 million. After another record, the quotes of the ETH/USD pair fell to $1,900. However, ether is starting to gain momentum and has risen in price by 2.2% over the past day, despite the sagging trading volume over the same 24 hours. As of 12:00 UTC, Ethereum's indicators again crossed the $2,000 milestone, which indicates a high level of asset support at this milestone. Unlike Bitcoin and XRP, the main altcoin can swing for a new historical leap, because the cryptocurrency has already reached the $2,014 mark.



The three main active assets in the digital coin market brought total losses to crypto-exchange traders amounting to more than $1 billion. Despite this, the majority of cryptocurrencies are demonstrating the dynamics for the next growth. This is also evidenced by the news background, which continues to be saturated with positive. The head of Goldman Sachs said that the cryptocurrency market will soon face an evolution associated with the expansion of the powers of banks when working with assets. In addition, there are numerous news that various cryptocurrencies are starting to accept taxes as payment, as announced in the Swiss canton. A real estate agency in California has also decided to accept payment in bitcoins.

Despite the local correction provoked by the sharp rise in XRP, the indicators of the main altcoins will continue to grow. With the main cryptocurrency, the situation is more complicated, because if the market does not show consolidation and high support at the level of $55,000-$60,000, then the asset may start a downward trend or sideways movement. And this indicates a possible drop in quotes to $40,000-$45,000.





Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021