Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Bullish setup in Litecoin

Litecoin has broken out and above the triangle pattern it was in. Price broke out 2 days ago and today price was back testing the upper triangle boundary. A bounce off the triangle upper boundary and broken resistance will be an important bullish signal.



Blue lines- triangle pattern

Red rectangle - back test area

LTC/USD is making higher highs and higher lows. Price has broken above the triangle resistance at $214 and moved as high as $244. Price has pulled back and touched the break out area shown by the red rectangle. Bouncing off this area will be a bullish sign and a confirmation that this level is now support. Resistance is at $244 and as long as price is above $214, I expect price to continue higher and break above $244.




Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Anthony Scaramucci: more companies should be holding bitcoin



Anthony Scaramucci, a former White House communications director and now the head of the SkyBridge hedge fund, believes that more companies should be holding bitcoin because a flood of stimulus money in the US economy is growing at a rapid pace. This will inevitably lead to depreciation in the US dollar and other currencies in global markets. Therefore, to protect themselves from inflation risks, companies should buy bitcoin, the emission of which is limited. According to Scaramucci, bitcoin has the potential to standardize money again, and that will be beneficial to lower and middle class. Unless the US dollar is digitalized anytime soon, bitcoin could become the single global currency as it is not influenced by policymakers. The number of bitcoins will not change, which means that over time, when all of the tokens are mined and distributed, the cryptocurrency rate should stabilize. Then bitcoin will become much less volatile than it is today, and will be able to perform the functions of ordinary fiat money. So, it will be possible to keep your savings in bitcoins without inflation risks and pay for any goods and services. Scaramucci predicts that "digital gold" can grow up to $100,000 per token as soon as 2021. In fact, he admits that bitcoin can move much higher than that in the near future.

From our point of view, bitcoin has a certain potential to conquer the global market. However, no one can predict for sure that this will happen. Unfortunately, bitcoin, like any other cryptocurrency, can be considered a bubble since BTC is not supported or backed by anything, and, therefore, has no intrinsic value. Let's imagine that bitcoin has become the world's digital currency. What will happen to other cryptocurrencies then? They might also be used in settlements or for investment purposes. Fiat money will not disappear either, which means it will remain in the global financial system. Moreover, new tokens and blockchain-based technologies appear almost every day. If it goes like this, in a couple of years you will need to own the coins of this particular store to shop for groceries. Also, we should keep in mind that global central banks are actively exploring the possibilities of launching their digital currencies. For example, the digital version of the US dollar may appear in a few years. How will this huge number of digital currencies, fiat money, and tokens compete with each other? And does the world really need so many different ways of payment? So far, there is no certainty that at least one bitcoin will ever become stable and will be accepted for payment and settlements all over the world.

In general, bitcoin remains a fairly popular investment instrument, but no more than that. It still has to go through the crisis in 2021-2022. It is believed that a fast and full recovery of the world's key economies will lead to the outflow of investments from cryptocurrencies, and investors will resort to more traditional instruments. So, the fact that bitcoin is now at the top does not mean it will remain there next year. Moreover, we all know how fast and to what extent the bitcoin price may fall.




Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Retail investors dictate the fate of Bitcoin



Bitcoin is currently trading around $ 60,000. But quite recently, market sentiment has changed, which means that players are no longer willing to respond to news about Bitcoin investments. Therefore, the market needs an influx of new investors for it to undergo another strong growth.

At the same time, approximately 40% of bitcoin investors are small or retail. They bought the cryptocurrency just so they can gain profit as quickly as possible, which means that they will drop it at any time, especially if they think that the upward trend is ending. This is not good for the market because it means that the BTC portfolio will not be sustained. But if large players buy up all the coins that went on sale immediately, then there will simply be a redistribution of owners, not a significant price change. Bitcoin's value will decrease only if supply exceeds demand.

But the stumbling block in seeing new investors is that the governments of almost every country in the world view cryptocurrencies as something that finances terrorism, criminal operations and money laundering. In fact, UK authorities foresee that cybercrimes related to cryptocurrencies will surge, so the fight against Bitcoin will continue. However, this should not affect prices very much.



And technically, nothing has changed in Bitcoin yet. There is no downward correction even if buyers failed to overcome $ 60,000 again. Nevertheless, the main cryptocurrency is walking on thin ice and any large sell off can trigger a strong collapse. To be more specific, dropping below $ 52,300 or $ 44,000 will provoke a very sharp downward movement.




Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Forecast for Ethereum for April 7, 2021

1. Volume analysis of ETH/TUSD from Binance

The analysis is based on the traded volume data from the Binance exchange on the daily chart. The analysis is carried out based on the footprint-profile theory. According to the theory, the movement of the level of the highest traded volume intraday can indicate the likely direction of the trend. The highest trade volume is the level with the largest number of transactions carried out. That is, it is the level of major market players. Accordingly, if the highest traded volume goes up, it indicates an upward trend. Otherwise, if the level goes down, it indicates a downward trend. Chaotic movements signal that the market is trading flat.

April 5, 2021 – the level of the highest traded volume (POC – PointOfControl) – 2,098.92

April 6, 2021 – the level of the highest traded volume (POC – PointOfControl) – 2,119.8

The POC has moved up. The price is below the POC. The market is moving in a sideways trend. You can enter long and short positions.


2. Long-term trend analysis

A trend is your friend. Many traders know this saying but do not know how to use it. The answer is simple: to trade only with the trend. Thus, your trades will be more profitable and less risky. According to the classic Dow theory, there are three main trends:

long-term
medium-term
short-term

These trends should be analyzed before you enter the market. This is what we are going to do right now.

The long-term trend is the daily trend. In this case, trades are conducted in the daily time frame and are held for several days. The analysis of the daily trend is made with the help of the 48-period exponential moving average. If the daily candlestick closes above EMA 48, it will indicate the upward trend. You should enter long positions. Otherwise, if the daily candlestick closes below EMA 48, then it is the downward trend and you should enter short positions.



The price is above EMA 48. It is an upward long-term trend. You should consider entering long positions.


3. Mid-term trend analysis

The mid-term trend is the trend on the 4-hour chart (H4). In this case, we will also turn to EMA 48. If the candlestick closes above EMA 48 on the H4 chart, it will indicate the upward trend. Thus, you should enter long positions. Otherwise, if the candlestick closes below EMA 48 on the H4 chart, it will indicate the downward trend. Consequently, you should enter short positions



The price is in line with EMA 48. It is a sideways mid-term trend. You can enter both long and short positions.


4. Short-term trend analysis

A short-term trend is the trend in the H1 time frame. Moreover, it can show an entry point into the market. We turn to EMA 48 again. If the candlestick closes above EMA 48 on the H1 chart, it will indicate the upward trend. Thus, you should enter long positions. Alternatively, if the candlestick closes below EMA 48, it will indicate the downward trend. Consequently, you should enter short positions.



The price is below EMA 48. It is a downward short-term trend. You can sell the instrument. The long-term trend, the mid-term trend, and the short-term trend are not in line.


5. Japanese candlestick analysis

A classic Japanese candlestick analysis is applied to the daily time frame. The daily candlestick is analyzed.



The white daily candlestick closed upward. Its high is above the high of the previous candlestick. It is a Hammer candlestick pattern, headed upward and with a long upper shadow. The upward trend is highly likely. The price broke the low of the last three candlesticks. The downward trend is likely.


6. Conclusion

Volume analysis – BUY/SELL.
Long-term trend analysis – BUY.
Mid-term trend analysis – BUY/SELL.
Short-term trend analysis – SELL.
Japanese candlestick analysis – SELL.

Conclusion: You can buy and sell ETH/TUSD on April 7, 2021, since varios analysis provide different forecasts


7. Statistics

To analyze how effective this approach is, the data on completed transactions is tracked. The forecast is made for four instruments: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, BCH/USD. Statement:



The ETH/TUSD trade closed at a Stop Loss and brought a small profit.

A Stop Loss for new trades is placed beyond the daily extreme points. We do not set a Take Profit because we will continue to move the Stop Loss above the extreme points of the upcoming sessions.

Since trading is carried out on daily charts, this recommendation is relevant throughout the day.

Trade with the trend and you will generate profits!




Maxim Petrov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin forecast for April 7, 2021

1. How to make money on cryptocurrencies?

In order to earn on cryptocurrencies, you should trade using a proven strategy. You can test the trading strategy by using historical data and a demo account. Only then, you can switch to live trading. There is no need to rush here. You should better start with smaller trade volumes because of the following reasons:

Trading on a live account, a trader may feel anxious. It is hard to make any decision under pressure. You should get used to trading on a live account first. Therefore, traders should start with smaller trades, gradually increasing the lot size.

A trader should stay calm while trading. This is the only way to achieve results. If, after raising the lot, a trader gets nervous, then the lot is too big and should be reduced. Such a gradual approach to trading will allow you to reach stable trading results and avoid heavy losses.


2. Volume analysis of BTC from Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)

Amid a fall in the value of bitcoin, the market is about to enter a correction. The price has been in the sideways corridor for a few days. Today, it started to drop. The price may break this corridor and the downward trend will extend. Let us consider the levels of the highest traded volume from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).

April 5, 2021 – the level of the highest traded volume (POC – PointOfControl) – 59,700

April 6.2021 – the level of the highest traded volume (POC – PointOfControl) – 58,165

The POC has moved down. The price is below yesterday's level of the highest traded volume. The price is trying to break the lows of the previous days. According to volume analysis, you can sell bitcoin today.


3. Trend analysis

Trade with the trend is one of the most reliable trading method that was used long before the digital era. In this forecast, the trend is analyzed with the help of an exponential moving average:

Long-term trend – a blue EMA 1152 on the H1 chart, which is an alternative to EMA 48 on the D1 chart;

Mid-term trend – a red EMA 288 on the H1 chart, which is an alternative to EMA 48 on the H4 chart;

Short-term trend – a black EMA 48 on the H1 chart.



The price is below the short-term and the mid-term EMA. All EMAs are headed in different directions. Based on trend analysis, you can enter both long and positions today.


4. Japanese candlestick analysis

Japanese candlestick analysis is the third step in this trading system. Let us analyze yesterday's daily candlestick:



Yesterday's black daily candlestick has closed down. Its highs are above the highs of the previous candlestick.The candlestick pattern has long upper and lower shadows. Today, you can enter short positions today.


5. Conclusion. Statistics

Volume analysis – SELL
Long-term trend – BUY
Medium-term trend – BUY
Short-term trend – SELL
Japanese candlestick analysis – SELL

Conclusion: You can buy and sell bitcoin in a short term on April 7, since different types of analysis provide different forecasts and the market is flat.

Only statistics can reveal how efficient a trading strategy is. In this forecast, trades are carried out in a separate account. Trades are conducted in four instruments: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and BCH/USD.


Statement:


The market is flat. Therefore, I do not open new trades today.

The risk per deal is no more than 1%. A Stop Loss is placed beyond the high/low of the day, depending on the direction of the trade. A Take Profit is not set. A Stop Loss is moved beyond the extreme points of the upcoming sessions.

Since trading is carried out on daily charts, this recommendation is relevant throughout the day.

Trade with the trend and you will generate profits!




Maxim Petrov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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XRP sets another record. Crypto market takes pause

Yesterday, the crypto market was in an upward trend owing to XRP's rally. Ripple rose to $1.11, the level unseen in three years. After that, the crypto asset's rally faded and the market took a short pause.

After reaching a $2 trillion record in total capitalization, the crypto market shrunk by 2.5% over the last 24 hours. On April 7, the major cryptocurrencies slowed down their pace and took a wait-and-see stance. For the last 24 hours, Ripple lost 10%. At the same time, the daily trading volume in XRP/USD remains at $43 billion. On top of that, the coin advanced by 2.7% for the last few hours according to the charts.



The cryptocurrency's rally followed the Court's approval of Ripple's claim to request internal documents from the SEC. The market welcomed this news and took it as yet another Ripple's victory against the regulator. As a result, XRP/USD broke the $1 barrier and boosted the entire crypto market. Later, the situation stabilized and the colin dropped to $0.918. According to the price dynamics for the last couple of hours, the upward trend will resume soon.

Meanwhile, BTC/USD is still trading in the $57-59K price range. Yesterday, the world's top digital asset lost 2.3% and plunged by 2.2% for the previous week.



In the long-term, the top digital coin is expected to remain within the $57-59K price range. At the same time, the cryptocurrency lacks support to start rising and break through the $60K mark. Its daily trading volume amounts to $66.5 billion, which is 7% higher than yesterday. However, it is all about an increased demand for bitcoin among retail investors as well as its lack among large companies, which can boost the virtual asset. In the short term, the world's first cryptocurrency is unlikely to go above the $60K mark.

For the last 24 hours, Ethereum lost 4% and consolidated at $2,039. The upward trend will extend to $2,100 if ETH/USD remains above $2K. Otherwise, the asset will plunge to $1,800. Given the current positive price dynamics (+0.4% over the past few hours) as well as a slightly increased daily trading volume ($36 billion), the main altcoin may consolidate and then extend its rally.



Meanwhile, LTC/USD also lost 2%. The asset is still at the important level of $220. It will become the key level for the next upward trend. Given the current positive price dynamics (+0.5%) and the high daily trading volume, the altcoin is expected to rise to $225-230 today.






Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Trading plan for Bitcoin for April 07, 2021



Technical outlook:

Bitcoin bears have managed to drag prices lower to $57,500 from the top of consolidation range around $59,000 levels, but it needs to break below $56,500 mark to reach $54,000 and find strong support. Thereafter, bulls are expected to be back in control and push prices higher towards $63,000 and above. The overall trend remains up but a corrective drop might materialize before a new high.

Bitcoin is seen to be trading near $57,500 levels at this point in writing and it could produce a swift drop towards $54,000/55,000 levels before reversing higher again. Immediate short term support is at $50,000, while intermediate resistance is seen towards $62,000 levels respectively. Also note that fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the recent rally between $50,300 and $60,000 is seen around $53,000/54,000 levels, hence probability of a bullish reversal remains high if prices manage to drop there.

Overall uptrend remains very much intact until prices stay above $50,000 mark, going forward. A break there would encourage bears to drag further towards $43,000 and $40,000 levels to find the next support. Also note that fibonacci 0.382 retracement of the entire rally between $3,850 and $61,780 is seen around $40,000 levels respectively. Bulls are expected to take control back if prices drop through that zone.


Trading plan:

Buy @ 54,000/55,000, stop @ 50000, target above @ 63,000

Good luck!




Oscar Ton
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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BTC analysis for April 07,.2021 - Confirmed completion of ABC upside correction and potential for drop towards $55.000

Further Development



Analyzing the current trading chart of BTC, I found that sellers took control over the buyers and that there is the breakout of the rising trend line.

My advice is still to watch for selling opportunities on the rallies with the downside targets at $55.000 and $51.000.

Stochastic oscillator is showing weakness and the bear cross is still active....


Key Levels:

Resistance: $60.000

Support levels: $55.000 and $51.000





Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for April 7, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
The cryptocurrency industry has finally achieved its goal. It has become more valuable than the entire American banking system.

As Jim Bianco of Bianco Research noted, the total value of the cryptocurrency market surpassed the S&P Composite 1500 Banks index, which tracks the performance of publicly traded banking institutions in the US.

It is worth mentioning that the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies exceeded $ 2 trillion on April 5.

Bianco has attributed this milestone to altcoins, whose market share - due to recent gains - is now approaching its highest level in two years. The researcher believes that despite the huge increases, they still have plenty of room for further increase in value:

"Altcoins reached 70% of the sector in 2018 (mainly ETH). Then the bubble burst. This might suggest that altcoins aren't overkill compared to bitcoins. Either ETH / DeFi takes place in the rally. "

Despite declining dominance, Bitcoin alone is still worth more than JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo combined.

A year ago, for comparison, the capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency market was smaller than JPMorgan, the largest bank in the US.


Technical Market Outlook:
After the ETH/USD pair had hit the 261% Fibonacci extension located at the level of $2,149, the market started to consolidate the recent gains in a narrow range. The local low was made at the level of $1,977, so it will now act as a technical support, but the recent lows were made higher at $1,999 and $2,042. The momentum is strong and positive and the market conditions are not overbought yet. The next target for bulls is located at the level of $2,200. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $2,090.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $2,774
WR2 - $2,442
WR1 - $2,286

Weekly Pivot - $1,965
WS1 - $1,803
WS2 - $1,504
WS3 - $1,345


Trading Recommendations:
The longer term up trend on the Ethereum continues despite the local counter-trend corrections. When the correction is terminated, the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $2,500. The key long term technical support is seen at the level of $1,412, so only a weekly candle close below this level will invalidate the bullish scenario.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for April 7, 2021

Crypto Industry News:

The internet profile of the anonymous creator of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto, indicates that he is just 46 years old.

Eighty-eight years ago, the US federal government issued Decree 6102 making it illegal for citizens to own gold.

This historic move in the government's monetary policy was immortalized in the context of Satoshi Nakamoto's birthday. It is no coincidence that the profile reflects 1975. It was then that Directive 6102 was repealed.

This choice reflects Satoshi's understanding of the government's historical treatment of monetary policy and the citizens affected by it. It can even be extrapolated that by choosing the year of birth 1975, Satoshi wanted his own identity under a pseudonym to symbolize the end of government control over money.

"We eventually retired our app because we felt the regulatory environment for digital assets had not progressed to the point where such a product could be successfully commercialized."

Grayscale said, recalling the experience, adding:

"Today, we are still committed to transforming the GBTC into an ETF. When the GBTC transforms into an ETF, the shareholders of listed GBTC shares will not have to take any action and the management fee will be lowered accordingly."


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has been consolidating under the level of $60,000 since the beginning of April and there is no break out higher yet. The local low was made at the level of $56,492 and the local high was made at $59,383. The momentum is still neutral and the market participants await the breakout above one of the levels. The next target for bulls is the ATH located at the level of $61,632. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $54.765.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $65,565
WR2 - $62,712
WR1 - $60,648

Weekly Pivot - $57,470
WS1 - $55,041
WS2 - $52,150
WS3 - $49,837


Trading Recommendations:
The bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $41,125 is clearly broken on the e daily time frame chart.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021