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SubscribeThe calm before the storm. JP Morgan experts lower their forecasts for bitcoin and expect an influx of new institutions.
Bitcoin has been trading very sluggishly for the last four trading days. Does it seem those market participants simply do not know what to do next? Either to fix the profit and provoke a collapse of quotes or to wait for the influx of new investors. Perhaps, if bitcoin had always traded with the same volatility as in the last four days, it could have cost just the same predicted $ 100,000 per coin, as it would immediately attract the attention of even more institutional traders. However, the last four days look more like an exception. Digital gold is right below the $ 60,000 level and just below its absolute highs near the level of $ 61,700. We still expect that the cryptocurrency will strongly adjust in value. Our goal is $ 43-44 thousand for the "cue ball" coin. We once again draw the attention of traders that each subsequent round of the upward movement is weaker than the previous one. From our point of view, this means a weakening of the "bullish" mood. And if so, profit-taking is inevitable.
Meanwhile, analysts at JP Morgan said that the real volatility of the most popular cryptocurrency is decreasing. They note that this figure is significantly lower in the last six months than in 2017. From the point of view of JP Morgan, this may attract new institutional investors in the near future, which will help the "cue ball" to continue growing. It is reported that in the first quarter of 2021, the demand for bitcoin from institutional investors fell compared to the previous quarter. Many Wall Street managers refused to invest in bitcoin in the first quarter due to its excessive volatility.
At the same time, not all investors are skeptical about bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The well-known billionaire in the cryptocurrency segment, Mark Cuban, recently revealed the contents of his cryptocurrency investment portfolio. It turned out that about 60% of the portfolio consists of bitcoins, 30% - ethereum, 10% - other crypto assets. The billionaire did not announce the value of the entire portfolio. Also, as part of the podcast, Cuban said that he believes bitcoin is the best alternative to gold, and ethereum is the most money-like cryptocurrency. He regretted that he had only started investing in ether four years ago, and not much earlier.
Returning to JP Morgan, the bank's experts also announced a new long-term forecast for bitcoin. In their opinion, in the long term, the cryptocurrency will grow to $ 130,000 per coin. Earlier, the bank's analysts predicted the growth of "digital gold" to $ 146,000 per coin. The decline in the forecast was due to the fall in gold prices. Experts believe that the current price of gold may attract some investors instead of buying bitcoin. Also, the bank's specialists said that bitcoin is practically not correlated with all other markets, which makes it an excellent tool for risk diversification. The bank's specialists also noted that the volatility of the cryptocurrency has been decreasing in recent weeks.
In technical terms, bitcoin was on the verge of breaking the $ 52,300 level for several days, but in the end, the bulls still held the initiative in their hands and a new round of upward movement began. However, at the moment, buyers cannot overcome the level of $ 60,000. We need a new influx of investors and that all the old ones refuse to sell off in the near future. We still allocate two important supports for the "cue ball" - $ 52,300 and $ 44,000. Overcoming any of them can provoke a strong downward movement.
Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
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