Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for March 30,.2021 - Completion of the ABC upside correction is in the play

Further Development


Analyzing the current trading chart of BTC, I found that buyers are in control today but the BTC is testing major resistance pivot at $60.000.

My advice is to watch for selling opportunities with the potential for the downside movement towards the levels at $56.430 and $55.000.

Additionally, I found that bearish divergence on the Stocahstic oscillator, which is another sign of weakness.




Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Jerome Powell: Bitcoin threatens gold more than the US dollar



The number one cryptocurrency in the world is again growing in price and is once again approaching its local and absolute highs, which are around the level of $ 62.5 thousand. We have already said earlier that we expect a strong correction in the area of $ 43-44 thousand. However, since the price failed to overcome the Kijun-sen line, the downward movement is canceled for the time being. But recently, representatives of the Federal Reserve quite often comment on bitcoin and its prospects. Naturally, the Fed's comments are extremely important, since it is the Fed that can influence the future of "digital gold" very much. For example, by completely banning it. It is clear that so far we are not talking about such radical measures. However, no one knows what will happen in a year or two. We have repeatedly said that for any government and any central bank, cryptocurrencies are a "bone in the throat". Thus, the Fed and other central banks may start a war against bitcoin in the future. But so far, this is out of the question. Moreover, Jerome Powell is calm on this issue. Last week, the head of the Federal Reserve said at a conference of the Bank for International Settlements that bitcoin lacks many properties for it to become a useful and full-fledged currency. Powell noted that bitcoin, like other tokens, is extremely unstable, so it is impossible to use them as a means of saving. Transactions, according to Powell, are more like speculation, since cryptocurrencies are not secured by anything. Jerome believes that cryptocurrencies can replace gold rather than the fiat dollar. Regarding stablecoins, Powell slightly softened his opinion, which he voiced earlier. Now Powell believes that stablecoins are more advanced cryptocurrencies that are tied to real money, so they are more stable and reliable. However, according to the head of the Federal Reserve, stablecoins will still not become a means of payment in the new international monetary system. At the end of his speech, Powell again noted that the Fed will not rush to create a digital dollar and will first study all aspects of this implementation.

However, not all countries of the world are so loyal to cryptocurrencies. For example, South Korea has introduced legislation that will prevent money laundering using cryptocurrencies. Now, providers of services related to cryptocurrency assets will have to register with government authorities before starting their activities and will have to report all suspicious transactions, as well as verify the identity of their customers. Earlier, the South Korean government introduced legislation that taxes capital gains from transactions with bitcoin and other tokens. Simply put, if you live in South Korea, bought bitcoin and it has doubled in price, you will have to pay income tax. In 2020, the South Korean government fully legalized cryptocurrency trading, storage, and mining. Thus, as we can see, Seoul has taken the path of legalizing cryptocurrencies, but at the same time with the benefit for itself, for the state.

Meanwhile, in India, several cryptocurrency exchanges have asked the Reserve Bank of India not to impose a complete ban on mining, storage, and operations with cryptocurrencies. According to representatives of crypto exchanges, this will cause financial losses throughout the country. They offer an effective mechanism for regulating the sphere of cryptocurrencies, which is already used in many countries around the world. The reaction of the Indian authorities to this request is still unknown. Recall that India is on the verge of a complete ban on cryptocurrencies and the introduction of criminal liability for their use.




Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading plan for Bitcoin for March 30, 2021



Technical outlook:

Bitcoin remains poised to print yet another high above $61,780 levels in the next few trading sessions but might be facing short term resistance around $60,000 levels for now. The crypto might e preparing for a short term decline towards $52,000/53,000 levels, before resuming its rally towards $62,000 and higher. A meaningful correction can be expected thereafter.

Bitcoin is seen to be trading around $59,000 levels at this point in writing and it might face short term resistance around $59,000/60,000 levels, going forward. Also note that the crypto is still testing the back side of support turned resistance trend line. A short term drop back toward $52,000 levels remain high probability in the next few trading sessions. Only a break below $50,000, would suggest deeper correction towards $43,000 and beyond.

The overall uptrend remains intact for now as immediate support is seen at $50,000, followed by $43,000; while resistance is seen around $62,000 levels respectively. Aggressive traders might be inclined to take benefit of the short term decline towards $52,000 at least.


Trading plan:
Aggressive traders remain short @ 58,000/59,000, stop @ 62,000, target @ 52,000/53,000.

Then turn long with stop @ 43,000, target above @ 62,000

Good luck!




Oscar Ton
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

PayPal launches service to pay for purchases using cryptocurrencies. Don't rush to bury Ripple. India's crypto ban did not scare investors

Bitcoin and several other cryptocurrencies and tokens have resumed their growth after today's announcement that PayPal Holdings Inc customers will be able to use their cryptocurrency to pay for purchases from millions of online merchants around the world, which can significantly increase the use of digital assets in everyday trading. In a statement, the company said: Customers who have bitcoin, ether, bitcoin cash, and litecoin in PayPal digital wallets will now be able to convert their assets into fiat currencies to make purchases. The service, which PayPal has been working on since the end of last year, will be available in all 29 million retail outlets in the coming months.



It is worth noting that this is a real breakthrough, as PayPal was, in fact, the first company to provide access to the free use of cryptocurrency in the same form as credit or debit cards. Payments will go through the Checkout with Cryptosystem, which allows PayPal users to buy, sell and store cryptocurrencies.

Technically, the BTC breakout of the $58,500 range opens a straight path to the $61,600 high, where a completely different trade will begin. There, it will be possible to follow the active opposition already from the sellers, who protect this level in every possible way to prevent the continuation of the upward trend. An unsuccessful breakout of $61,600 can form a double top, which will lead to the formation of a very powerful signal to sell Bitcoin, so be careful at this level. If the bulls fail to get above the resistance of $58,500, then the pressure on the cryptocurrency will also increase, since from this range it is possible to build the lower border of the new descending channel from March 13. In this case, the bears will target support at $54,700, a breakout of which will quickly dump bitcoin to the lows of $50,200 and $44,900.


Ripple
Don't rush to bury Ripple. After the SEC filed a series of accusations against Ripple in the illegal sale of unregistered securities worth $1.3 billion under the guise of its tokens, the price of ChKZ fell to new lows. Many exchanges started delisting XRP, and it seemed that the company could already be buried. Then there was news that representatives of the US Securities and Exchange Commission and Ripple were unable to reach a pre-trial settlement, which led to an even greater drop in the XRP rate.



Today it became known that Ripple Labs Inc. plans to acquire a 40% stake in the Asian specialist in cross-border payments Tranglo. Ripple said in a statement on Tuesday that the merger will help meet the demand for the use of the XRP affiliate token in transactions. This led to a slight increase in the price of the token, but not to a reversal of the downward trend that was observed before. The announcement came about a week after Brooks Entwistle, the former executive of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Uber Technologies Inc., became the managing director of Ripple in Southeast Asia. In its already favored style, Ripple said it is entering new markets in the region to meet the demand for cheaper, faster, and more reliable cross-border payments using cryptocurrency. We have heard similar statements before, but since the growth of bitcoin, investor confidence in Ripple has not returned, and every jump in the price was immediately accompanied by a major sale of the token.

Tranglo is based in Malaysia and has processed over 20 million transactions totaling $4 billion since its inception, according to Ripple. As for the results of the proceedings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, they are not yet available. Ripple is confident that they will be able to achieve a pre-trial settlement of the issue.

It makes no sense to talk about the technical nature of this trading instrument since trading in this token is suspended on many large exchanges.

The news that traders believe in the growth of bitcoin, and all of India's attempts to ban its use inside the country only whet the appetite of the younger and more advanced generation.


India
India has been making headlines on many internet resources lately with an emphasis on trying to ban cryptocurrency. However, it has not yet come to real action. It turned out the opposite: the government's less than friendly attitude towards cryptocurrency did not curb the Indian curiosity about this asset, but only increased demand. Rumors do not scare away the giants of the cryptocurrency world either. Just last week, Coinbase announced that it plans to open an office in India, and Binance has been there since 2019.

Let me remind you that India owns less than 1% of the world's cryptocurrencies, and its potential investor base is approximately 100 million people. However, the future of cryptocurrencies in India remains very uncertain after the authorities recently expressed concern about this area and, together with the Central Bank, generated rumors about the possible entry into force of a ban on cryptocurrencies and mining, including criminal liability. Recent statements from the authorities that the ban is not planned did not reassure investors, as changes in the regulatory framework do raise concerns and risks. Over time, they will disappear when a set of clear legal documents is developed. Investors hope that the Indian authorities will not prohibit the use of cryptocurrencies, given the investment potential this direction carries.





Jakub Novak
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Visa Inc. solution using USD Coin has led to a sharp rise in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin regains its position after a slight decline at the end of last week amid a correction and profit-taking after an unsuccessful attempt to update the historical high above $62,000. Demand for the cryptocurrency returned after the international company Visa Inc. said that its payment network will use USD-backed stablecoins. The fact that blockchain technology continues to gain popularity is forcing companies like Visa to use it in their transactions. According to a statement from the San Francisco-based payment giant, as part of the pilot program, Visa uses USD Coin to conduct transactions on the Ethereum network using the platform Crypto.com and Anchorage - a digital asset bank. This year, Visa plans to offer this service to more of its partners. Against this background, bitcoin returned to the area of $58,000, where it continues to trade at present.



As for the technical picture of BTC: support levels in the region of $50,000 worked perfectly last week, which allows maintaining the upward potential of the world's first cryptocurrency. Further growth will depend entirely on the behavior around $58,500. A breakout of this range will open a direct path to the maximum of $61,600, where a completely different trade will begin. There, it will be possible to follow the active opposition already from the sellers, who protect this level in every possible way to prevent the continuation of the upward trend. An unsuccessful breakout of $61,600 can form a double top, which will lead to the formation of a very powerful signal to sell bitcoin, so be careful at this level. If the bulls do not manage to get above the resistance of $58,500, then the pressure on the cryptocurrency will also increase, since from this range you can build the lower limit of the new descending channel from March 13. In this case, the bears will target the support of $54,700, a breakout of which will quickly dump bitcoin to the lows at $50,200 and $44,900.

The fact that financial companies are beginning to use cryptocurrencies and blockchain projects once again confirms the real future of this direction. Although many are still skeptical about the mass adoption of blockchain and cryptocurrencies – this can no longer be avoided. Blythe Masters, the former chief executive of JPMorgan Chase & Co., said in an interview recently: "While bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies remain primarily a vehicle for speculation and are unlikely to replace alternative store of value anytime soon, the potential is enormous."

Jack Forestell, Visa's chief product officer, said the company's decision to introduce USDC is a step in the company's quest to serve financial technology businesses. "Fintech companies that use cryptocurrency need partners who understand their business and the complexities of digital currency. Today's announcement marks an important milestone in our ability to meet the needs of fintech companies," the statement said.



Despite political pressure, large investment companies continue to grow, hiring rather large figures as consultants. One River Asset Management, a $2.5 billion company, has hired former SEC chairman Jay Clayton as an advisor, boosting confidence in the emerging asset class. Clayton will be one of three advisors to One River founder and CEO Eric Peters. It is worth noting that it was under Clayton, who left the SEC in December 2020, that the regulator decided that bitcoin and ether are not securities, eliminating the problem in creating derivatives for this asset class.





Jakub Novak
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin forecast for March 30, 2021.

1. How to make money on cryptocurrencies?
In order to earn on cryptocurrencies, you should be a professional market player. Trading should be your profession. To become a professional trader, you must be passionate about trading and have time and money for training.

Those who enjoy what they do become professionals. It is especially important in trading since you need to devote time to self-education and study of changing markets. You will not be able to make money in trading by doing nothing. You should enjoy trading. Only then, you can do it for years and turn into a professional. Let us consider the current bitcoin market situation and try to understand what professional market participants do.


2. Volume analysis of BTC from Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)
Bitcoin is expected to reach previous highs (the image at the beginning of the article). The current bullish trend seems to be strong enough so that the price can test previous extreme highs. Perhaps bitcoin will trade at $62,000 in the next few days. At the same time, the coin is located close to its highs and has limited potential for movement. If you want to open positions, you should set stop losses closer and take profit quickly. Let's consider levels of the highest traded volume from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). The volume analysis indicates the bullish market.

26.03.21 – the level of the highest traded volume (POC – Point Of Control) – 53,995
29.03.21 – the level of the highest traded volume (POC – Point Of Control) – 58,655

Yesterday, the point of control moved up and was in the shadow of yesterday's candlestick. The price dropped sharply and closed below the highest traded volume of the day. A part of market participants took profit. They no longer believed in the continuation of the bullish trend. Today, the price has returned to yesterday's point of control but has failed to break through it. This means that you can consider entering both long and short positions.


3. Trend analysis
Large market participants always create trend movements in the market. If you trade with the trend, you trade with large market participants. Analyzing the daily time frame, you will improve your trading. An exponential moving average is used in trend analysis:

Long-term trend – a blue 1152 EMA on the H1 chart, which is an alternative to 48 EMA on the daily chart;

Mid-term trend – a red 288 EMA on the H1 chart, which is an alternative to 48 EMA on the H4 chart;

Short-term trend – a black 48 EMA on the H1 chart.



It is a bullish market. The price is above all three EMAs. All three trends are in line. In this case, you can enter long positions.


4. Japanese candlestick analysis
Japanese candlestick analysis of the closing price and daily candlestick's body provides a better understanding of the current market situation. Let us analyze yesterday's daily candlestick:



It is a large white candlestick closed upward. It has a long upward shadow which indicates profit taking and a pullback. Then, the price goes down. All this shows a bullish trend. Perhaps the upward movement is coming to an end. According to Japanese candlestick analysis, you can open long positions today.


5. Conclusion. Statistics
Volume analysis – BUY/SELL
Long-term trend – BUY
Medium-term trend – BUY
Short-term trend – BUY
Japanese candlestick analysis – BUY

Conclusion: You can buy and sell bitcoin in a short term on March 30, since various analyses give different forecasts and the market is flat.

Only statistics can show the efficiency of any trading strategy. According to the above forecasts, transactions are made in a separate account.Trades and analysis are carried out in four instruments: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and BCHUSD. Gains for two months: +10.42%,


Statement:


Currently, there is only one open trade:

25.03.21 Litecoin SELL: 174.44 SL: 201; Risk per deal: 1% of a $10,000 deposit with 0.04 lot.

I do not open new positions today due to market uncertainty.

The risk per deal is 1%. A Stop Loss is placed beyond the high/low of the day, depending on the direction of the trade. I do not set a Take Profit. A Stop Loss is moved beyond the extreme points of the upcoming sessions.

Since trading is carried out on daily charts, this recommendation is relevant throughout the day.

Trade with the trend and you will generate profits!





Maxim Petrov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

The pressure on Bitcoin is postponed



Bitcoin has started a new round of upward movement, again failing to overcome the important level of $52,300, where the Kijun-sen line of the Ichimoku indicator passes. So for the time being, the correction scenario is postponed again. But from our point of view, a serious correction for bitcoin has been brewing for a long time. The two most important factors have already been mentioned before: the time factor and the factor of weakening the bullish trend. It is these two factors that can provoke the beginning of a strong correction, at least in the support area of $43,000-44,000 per coin. However, without technical signals and confirmations of these expectations, you should not sell bitcoin in any case. It has been mentioned before that even any currency (a much more stable instrument) can move in any direction for a very long time in the absence of visible reasons. A striking example of this is the British pound sterling in the last year. What can we say about cryptocurrencies, which are currently the most volatile investment tools. Thus, bitcoin may well reach the $100,000 per coin mark in the coming months. To do this, it is necessary to increase the demand for it even more. The growth in demand can be ensured by the influx of new institutional investors, due to the "hamsters" who rush to invest the money received from the American authorities. This is an absolutely real scenario. The whole essence of the movement of the bitcoin exchange rate, in fact, is based on whether the market believes in a further rise in the price of the "digital gold" at this time or not. It is believed that bitcoin is long overdue to go down. However, it is important to remember that a clear downward trend and signals must be formed for this to happen.

Meanwhile, the Fed is creating favorable conditions for Bitcoin to continue strengthening. Recall that it is the central banks that are considered the most likely opponent of all cryptocurrencies, since no government wants to have an uncontrolled currency. Central banks and governments can either ban the use of bitcoin (as it is now in India), can impose high taxes on it, or can introduce their own digital currencies to create competition for cryptocurrencies. So far, the Fed is not going to do either one or the other. The head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, said the other day that America will not rush to create a "digital dollar." According to Powell, the creation of a digital dollar will have serious consequences for the whole world and in this matter you need to be very careful. Approximately the same opinion is shared by the authorities of the European Union, as well as the ECB. This means that in the next few years, Bitcoin and its counterparts are unlikely to have a state competitor. This is undoubtedly good for the prospects of the world's number one cryptocurrency.



In technical terms, Bitcoin was on the verge of breaking the $52,300 level for several days. But in the end, the bulls still held the initiative in their hands and a new round of upward movement began. Now, the nearest target for growth will be the previous local maximum – $61,600. However, we still draw the attention of traders to the fact that the fuse of buyers is clearly drying up. They need either a new influx of investors, or a sharp drop in the supply of bitcoin in the market. Otherwise, a powerful downward correction will begin.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin Buyers Have Taken Full Control!

Bitcoin grows again after failing to validate a larger correction. The price is trading at $58,055 at the time of writing, right below $58,367 static resistance.

BTC/USD is bullish and the price could approach and reach the $61,788 all-time high in the coming days. The price action signaled that the short-term decline is over and that the major crypto could resume its major uptrend.


BTC/USD STRONGLY BULLISH!


BTC/USD failed to stabilize under the uptrend line. It has found support on the 50% Fibonacci line of the descending pitchfork and now it has escaped from the descending pitchfork's body.

It has decreased between the upper median line (uml) and the 50% Fibonacci line. The breakout from this minor channel was validated by the upper median line (uml) and the Pivot Point ($54,841) retest.


BITCOIN FORECAST!

A bullish closure above $58,400 yesterday's high is seen as a bullish signal. The $61,788 historical high is seen as an immediate target. Jumping and stabilizing above it could indicate further growth.






Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for March 30, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, has a long-standing advocate for digital asset and her fund ARKW has around $ 370 million in GrayScale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).

With the price of bitcoin rising this year, the market capitalization of the cryptocurrency has also increased, exceeding the value of $ 1 trillion. While it was a huge milestone, many analysts and investors doubted the future appreciation of BTC, citing its limited growth potential. But Wood argued that a Bitcoin market cap of over $ 1 trillion was just the beginning. During the last CBOE panel she said:

"If we add all the potential demand to the limited supply, we will get incredible numbers in the long run. We just started. One trillion dollars is nothing compared to what level of capitalization will eventually be. "

Cathie Wood said one of the most surprising turning points for cryptocurrency was the massive surge in institutional demand. As the US economy struggles with inflationary pressures, analysts predict a depreciation of the dollar.

As a result, major asset management companies started amassing BTC and other cryptocurrencies, taking millions of coins out of circulation. According to Glassnode, the illiquid supply of Bitcoin continues to grow throughout 2021.

Hailed by some as "visionary", Cathie Wood seems to be ahead of most of her Wall Street colleagues when it comes to getting in tune with the reality of investing in digital assets.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has bounced from the level of $50,313, which is the 61% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave up and the technical support as well, broke through the trend line resistance and made a top at the level of $58,223. This is the key short-term technical resistance for bulls, because a breakout above will expose the level of $60,100 for a test. From there the road towards the ATH located at the level of $61,683 is very short. For now the market is consolidating the recent gains and the market participants await for the rally to continue.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $66,270
WR2 - $62,632
WR1 - $58,882

Weekly Pivot - $54,425
WS1 - $50,791
WS2 - $46,464
WS3 - $42,622


Trading Recommendations:
The bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $41,125 is clearly broken on the e daily time frame chart.







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for March 30, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Visa is opening up to settlements with digital currencies. The payment operator announced yesterday that it made a transaction using USDC on the Ethereum blockchain.

According to the content of the published announcement, Visa has devoted the last 18 months to developing a path to settling the digital currency in its infrastructure. The payment operator said it will be working with Anchorage, a digital asset bank, as a clearing partner and also with Crypto.com as a payment gateway.

The first major player to settle USDC transactions

Visa says the infrastructure enhancements outlined above will support central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) as they are deployed in the future.

"Cryptocurrency fintechs want partners who understand their business and the complexities of digital currency factors," said Jack Forestell, director of Visa products. "Today's announcement is a milestone in our ability to meet the needs of fintechs managing their business with either stablecoin or cryptocurrency, and is actually an extension of what we do every day."

Visa stressed that determining what digital assets to offer as billing options boils down to three factors: demand, stability and security. For the latter two, the company says it addresses primarily price fluctuations and liquidity, as well as compliance and management protocols.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has broken above the short-term trend line resistance around the level of $1,780 and hit the technical resistance at the level of $1,836. The rally from the level of $1,544 had ended with a Doji candlestick at the H4 time frame chart, so some kind of pull-back or local consolidation is possible now. The immediate technical support is seen at the level of $1,729, but for now the market made an intraday low at the level of $1,786. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $1,872, $1,888 and $1,941 (ATH).

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $2,053
WR2 - $1,922
WR1 - $1,793

Weekly Pivot - $1,670
WS1 - $1,525
WS2 - $1,400
WS3 - $1,267


Trading Recommendations:
The longer term up trend on the Ethereum continues despite the local counter-trend corrections. When the correction is terminated, the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $2,100. The key long term technical support is seen at the level of $1,412, so only a weekly candle close below this level will invalidate the bullish scenario.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021