Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Trading strategy for Bitcoin on September 9th. Bitcoin is preparing to fall to $9500

Bitcoin – 4H.


On September 6, the BTC rate rebounded from the trend line, which passes through the peaks on June 26, July 10 and August 6-8. Thus, despite the exit from the downward channel a week ago, the most famous cryptocurrency remains within the "narrowing triangle", since the "support" trend line on the low of July 17, July 29 and August 29 supports the trend line. It is based on these two lines that I expect a decline to the lower trend line, that is, to the area of $9300 - $9400. There is also a sell signal-closing below the Fibo level of 61.8% ($10256). All this speaks in favor of a further drop in quotes "cue ball".

Perhaps the most interesting news last weekend was spent on the FBI, IRS and Immigration and Customs for about $90 million on deanonymizing senders and receivers of bitcoin transactions. This money was paid to start-ups that specialize in deanonymization. It is noteworthy that all such startups have collected about 107 million dollars of investment, which makes the US government services the main investors of startups to disclose the real names of participants in transactions in the bitcoin network. Also, many cryptocurrency exchanges are interested in deanonymizing payments, which must comply with the laws of countries, which often prohibit accounts and payments to the accounts of some other countries under sanctions. Thus, the US authorities continue to fight against illegal transactions carried out through bitcoin wallets, and for bitcoin itself, this is bad news. The main advantage over fiat money is the anonymity of payments. This is what makes the majority of Bitcoin owners who are not interested in making a profit due to exchange rate fluctuations, use the coin as a means of calculation. If the primary appeal of crypto-currencies will disappear, and demand for bitcoin significantly reduced.

Interesting news from the sphere of altcoins. According to the crypto statistics service Messari, only 3 out of 16 crowdsales conducted over the past 4 years have brought profit to their investors. In simpler terms, only 3 new out of 16 cryptocurrencies are now quoted as more expensive than the price at which the primary substitution was made on the market. Thus, 80% of new cryptocurrencies caused losses to their investors.

Also, Charles Randall, head of the Office of Financial Regulation and Supervision in England and Wales, reports that cryptocurrency financial crimes have reached unprecedented proportions and are comparable to the epidemic. Most often, individual investors are tricked. In the crime report for 2018-2019, a third of the crimes relate specifically to investments in cryptocurrencies. It is not surprising, given the cryptocurrency segment that has grown in recent years.

An even more interesting statement was made by Jerome Powell, the head of the US Federal Reserve. He said that the Federal Reserve is not going to launch its cryptocurrency. According to Fed research, cryptocurrencies issued by governments or central banks are not in demand among consumers. Powell also noted that cryptocurrencies are not an urgent problem for the United States and the world. He noted that if a single cryptocurrency will be created in America, it should be "cybersecurity", as it is one thing when counterfeit money is printed, and quite another – when it can steal or create any new money using a computer.

Bloomberg news agency reports that the inverse correlation between bitcoin and the Chinese yuan continues to increase. That is, the more the yuan becomes cheaper, the more bitcoin rises in price. The correlation index between the yuan and bitcoin recently reached 60%.


Overall results:
I believe that the most significant news for the BTC rate now is the interest in de-anonymization of bitcoin transactions by the FBI and the US Internal Revenue Service. This is what can make a significant portion of investors leave the cryptocurrency segment over time. It may be because of this news that Bitcoin is now declining.

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of July 17, 2019, and August 6, 2019.


Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
Bitcoin has completed the consolidation under the correction level of 61.8%. Therefore, I recommend selling cryptocurrency with targets of $9788 (76.4% of Fibonacci), $9566 (38.2% of Fibonacci) and $ 9400.

I do not recommend buying bitcoin now, as the cryptocurrency has remained in the downward channel.




Performed by Samir Klishi
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 09 September 2019

Crypto Industry News:
A top official from the Chinese central bank has confirmed that the upcoming national digital currency will be similar to the Libra token.

Mu Changchun - deputy director of the Payments Department of the Chinese People's Bank (PBoC) - said that China's digital currency will be supported on major electronic payment platforms such as WeChat Tencata and supported by Alibaba Alipay.

Tokens will be guaranteed by the central bank, and thus as secure as banknotes issued by PBoC, in addition, they can be used without an Internet connection to ensure the continuation of the transaction even in the event of communication network failure.

Speaking about the country's motivations for the introduction of digital currency, Mu argued that the coin would help protect the sovereignty of China's foreign currencies, even if the numerous commercial uses of digital currencies gain popularity:

"Why does the central bank continue to use such digital currency, since today's electronic payment methods are so developed? This is to protect our monetary sovereignty and the legal status of the currency. We must plan ahead for a rainy day," he said.

As noticed by Mu, the upcoming national digital currency will seek to provide anonymous payments while preventing money laundering. He explained that although the payment-focused currency will have a similarity to Libra, it will not be a direct copy.


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair has broken through the descending trendline around the level of $177.07 and made a new local high at the level of $183.43. Currently, the market is testing the trendline from above, hovering around the technical support located at the level of $175.00. In order to regain control of the market, the bulls will have to make a new local high again and head towards the level of $193.52 in an impulsive fashion, otherwise, the bears might push the prices lower towards the support at $172 and $164.81 again.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $207.64
WR2 - $195.13
WR1 - $188.15

Weekly Pivot - $176.09
WS1 - $169.04
WS2 - $156.97
WS3 - $149.69


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the lower wave degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $202.59 and $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.





Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 09 September 2019

Crypto Industry News:
Well-known emerging market investor Mark Mobius believes that Bitcoin must be backed by gold to have any value.

In a TV interview, Mobius expressed concerns about the risks associated with cryptocurrencies and Blockchain technology. When the interviewer asked if Mobius believes that Bitcoin has innate value, the famous investor avoided directly answering this question, arguing that the world really needs a cryptocurrency that would be supported by gold.

"If there is a cryptocurrency that is really backed by gold - and that means there is a significant deal and something modern like that - then it can be quite interesting," says Mobius.

The interviewer noted that there is no fiat currency secured with gold while asking the question of why any crypto must have the same support, Mobius admitted that the key in this matter is the issue of faith. Mobius explained that there is a whole generation of people who believe in the Internet as well as for cryptocurrencies, and "that's enough."

"The reason people believe in the US dollar is that they believe that with dollars in their hands they can buy something. So there is a degree where if a cryptocurrency can let you buy something and you think it is, then it's okay "- he added.

Repeating his recent statements that it is a matter of faith whether people believe in Bitcoin or any other crypto, the investment veteran has still stressed industry concerns, arguing that people will soon begin to realize that cryptocurrencies are very risky.

What's more, Blockchain technology is also a serious risk, Mobius noted, stating that Blockchain can be hacked, just like all human-made technologies, despite its immutability.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair has completed the impulsive wave 1 to the upside and currently, the market is in the corrective cycle that might extend lower. The first target is seen at the level of $10,074, which is a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave up, and the next target is seen at the level of 61% Fibonacci at $9,882. Those two targets are high-probability level for the wave 2 to terminate and to start the wave 3 to the upside.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $12,244
WR2 - $11,525
WR1 - $10,919

Weekly Pivot - $10,260
WS1 - $9,607
WS2 - $8,906
WS3 - $8,306


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The wave 2 corrective cycles is about to be completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,231 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 06 September 2019

Crypto Industry News:
Technology giant from Cupertino also noticed the considerable potential in "mobile payments". Apple, because we are talking about it already in 2014 launched the Apple Pay service enabling payments via smartphones.

The global expansion of the payment service from Apple has meant that since its launch, the company has become a really big player in the field of mobile payments. However, digital payments are evolving fairly quickly. So what could Apple's next step be?

Jennifer Bailey, vice president of Apple Pay, said the company is "watching" cryptographic currencies, although consumers should not expect anything soon.

"We find it interesting. In our view, they have interesting, long-term potential, but we focus primarily on what consumers are enjoying today" said Bailey in an interview at a private meeting in San Francisco.

This statement clearly illustrates that, although Apple has not been associated with any cryptocurrency project so far, the company pays attention to the technology behind bitcoin, ethereum, and other decentralized currencies.

"If you look at payment solutions via QR code, if you look at the long-term potential of the cryptographic currency, I think you will still see this change over time" - she added.

It would seem, therefore, that although Apple is currently not planning to include in its offer services related to cryptocurrency payments, as time goes by and the popularity of digital assets increases, it does not exclude such a possibility.


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair is still has hit and reversed from the short-term descending trendline around the level of $182.00 and then made a new local low at the level of $168.60. The price went down through the technical support located at the level of $172.82. Despite the fact, that the wave Z of the overall corrective cycle might have been completed already, the bulls are not showing any strength on the market yet, which is why the price is trading below the trendline. If, however, the level of $182.00 is clearly violated, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $187.04 and the uptrend is resumed then.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $214.26
WR2 - $203.46
WR1 - $183.94

Weekly Pivot Point - $173.24
WS1 - $152.37
WS2 - $142.84
WS3 - $121.31


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 06 September 2019

Crypto Industry News:
Bitcoin's energy consumption is becoming more and more efficient despite the fact that the hashrate indicator is still reaching record levels, as new data suggests.

Data from the Statista aggregator showed that, despite the greater computing power for Bitcoin mining, less electricity is needed to power this process. According to one chart, energy consumption in July was 69.79 terawatt hours per year. In July 2018, the figure was 71.12 terawatts, and the hashrate rate was almost 60% lower than today.

Hash rate measures the overall computing power associated with processing Bitcoin transactions. In August, the indicator went through 80 hash / s quintillion, and is now almost 90 quintillion. In July 2018, this figure was about 40 quintillion.

Therefore, the data are part of the general tendency to increasing ecological awareness among miners. When Bitcoin prices increased this year, many operators announced attempts to improve performance.

A June study found that three-quarters of Bitcoin mining operations are powered by renewable energy sources. Equipment manufacturers have sought to develop new devices with greater capabilities and lower energy requirements, such as Bitmain's 7-nm Antminer, which debuted in November last year.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair has made a new marginal local high at the level of $10,775 after the technical resistance at the level of $10,222 has been violated. The market is still developing the local pull-back in the wave (2) and when finished a new higher high should be made with a target at the level of $11,068. The move-up is the biggest in terms of range so far, so it is quite possible that this is the wave (1) of the overall impulsive cycle up. Moreover, it means, the corrective cycle in wave 2 had been completed at the level of $9,231 and now the market resumes the uptrend. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $9,231 is not clearly violated.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $11,528
WR2 - $11,079
WR1 - $10,223

Weekly Pivot Point - $9,753
WS1 - $8,875
WS2 - $8,358
WS3 - $7,589


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,231 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.





Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

BTC. Major resistnace on the test and potential new downward movement

Bitcoin 4H time-frame:


I found large symmetrical triangle pattern based on the 4H time-frame and the BTC is trading near the resistance now. I think that the growth potential of BTC is now limited. The first reason is cause there is increase demand for the crude oil, which is very attractive for investorsThe trade war is still active and investors are in indecision about the dollar, which indicates limited upside for BTC. I think that overall Bitcoin can go lower due to no big buyers on the market and due to much more attractive markets now like a energy market.I found bearish divergence on the MACD oscillator, which is another indication for lower prices.


Bitcoin Forecast and recommendations for traders:
Bitcoin is in overall consolidation phase but most recently I found resistance on the test and the potential breakout of $10,350 may confirm lower BTC. Thus, I recommend selling cryptocurrency with a target of $9,453, with a Stop Loss level of $11,000



Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Trading strategy for Bitcoin on September 5th. Christine Lagarde supports the development of blockchain technologies

Bitcoin – 4H.


On September 4, bitcoin felt great, updating the peak of the previous day and not falling during the day. However, two bearish divergences in the CCI indicator predict a fall in bitcoin in the coming days. Plus, do not forget that BTC has a strong resistance zone above, formed by the correction level of 23.6% and the peak of August 20. This zone is now extremely important for the prospects of bitcoin. If traders gain a foothold above it, it will mean a high probability of further growth of the number 1 cryptocurrency in the world. If it does not close higher, then John Bollinger's forecast may come into force, which predicted a fall to $4000 - $5000, if the bulls do not activate this week and do not make a rapid and big step forward.

Important news for Bitcoin was the speech of Christine Lagarde, who will take over on November 1 as Chairman of the Board of the European Central Bank. She urged other Central Banks not to exert pressure on cryptocurrencies to protect consumers as much as possible. Lagarde believes that blockchain is an extremely important technology for the modernization of the financial system. At the same time, Lagarde notes the high risks to the existing financial and banking systems. She believes that cryptocurrencies can destroy financial institutions and cause an economic crisis. Also, cryptocurrencies can destroy the banking systems of developed countries and completely replace fiat money in developing countries. The reason for this position is that in most poor countries, it is dangerous to keep cash at home or even in banks. Poverty and high crime rates often lead to savings theft as well as confiscation by the state. Cryptocurrencies are safer in terms of savings in such states.

Meanwhile, China launched June digital testing. Thus, the National Bank of China rejects the idea of total control or, in the future, will develop and implement certain tools that will allow controlling the movement of "crypto-yuan". The digital yuan is expected to enter circulation by the Chinese new year.

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of July 17, 2019, and August 6, 2019.


Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
Bitcoin performed a consolidation above the Fibo level of 61.8%, but 2 bearish divergences cast doubt on further growth. I recommend selling cryptocurrency if it closes at the level of 61.8% ($10256), with a target of $9788 (76.4% Fibo).

I do not recommend buying bitcoin now, as there is not much left to the target and very strong area.




Performed by Samir Klishi
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 05 September 2019

Crypto Industry News:
Christine Lagarde, candidate for president of the European Central Bank (ECB) and head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that central banks and financial regulators should protect consumers, but also be open to innovation such as cryptocurrencies.

During the opening statement, Lagarde told the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs that central banks and financial regulators should be open to the opportunities of change.

"For new technologies - including digital currencies - this means paying attention to the risks of financial stability, privacy or criminal activity and ensuring that regulations are in place to focus technology on the public good. But it also means recognizing the wider social benefits of innovation and enabling them to develop, "she said.

She also promised that if she became President of the ECB, her priorities would be involved in the institution's mandate and agility, social inclusion, and diversity. All this while ensuring that institutions quickly adapt to the rapidly changing environment.

In February, Lagarde said that cryptocurrency regulation is "inevitable" and necessary at the international level. In April, she also said that Blockchain innovators "shake the traditional financial world" and have a clear impact on current players.


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair is still has hit and reversed from the short-term descending trendline around the level of $182.00, so only an impulsive move above the trendline can give a signal for the market participants to resume the uptrend on this pair. The price went down towards the technical support located at the level of $172.82 and is currently testing it from above. Despite the fact, that the wave Z of the overall corrective cycle might have been completed already, the bulls are not showing any strength on the market yet, which is why the price is trading below the trendline. If, however, the level of $182.00 is clearly violated, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $187.04 and the uptrend is resumed then.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $214.26
WR2 - $203.46
WR1 - $183.94

Weekly Pivot Point - $173.24
WS1 - $152.37
WS2 - $142.84
WS3 - $121.31


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.





Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 05 September 2019

Crypto Industry News:
American investor and co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital Assets, Anthony Pompliano, argued that Satoshi Nakamoto should receive the Nobel Peace Prize for inventing Bitcoin.

"Satoshi should win the Nobel Peace Prize. After all, we have a currency that can take the status of a global reserve without having to engage in violence," Pompliano wrote in a tweet published on September 3.

Pompliano's proposal faces the obvious obstacle of the legendary disappearance of Nakamoto at the end of 2010 - which caused almost as much speculation and keen interest as the cryptocurrency that he, she or they invented on October 31, 2008, with the publication of the Bitcoin White Paper.

Apart from pragmatic considerations, Pompliano's argument is based on the conviction of many avid cryptocurrency supporters that domestic fiat currency is essentially based on violence - their hegemony is based on a history of coercion, centralized control of supply and a monopoly of power.

After the Second World War in the last century, America's rise to the global economic superpower meant that the dollar was transformed into a global reserve currency - both reflecting the priority of the country and as an instrument by which to determine the puncture.

Thanks to the invention of decentralized cryptocurrencies from the last decade - as well as more recent information that technology giants such as Facebook are now trying to opt for the technology that underlies their own creation of their own digital currency networks - traditional monetary policy managers are probably facing unprecedented challenges.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair has made a new marginal local high at the level of $10,773 after the technical resistance at the level of $10,222 has been violated. The market is still developing the local pull-back in the wave (2) and when finished a new higher high should be made with a target at the level of $11,068. The move-up is the biggest in terms of range so far, so it is quite possible that this is the wave (1) of the overall impulsive cycle up. Moreover, it means, the corrective cycle in wave 2 had been completed at the level of $9,231 and now the market resumes the uptrend. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $9,231 is not clearly violated. Anyway, now is time for a correction and the levels for the corrective pull-back are $10,222, $10,164, $9,999 and $9,820.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $11,528
WR2 - $11,079
WR1 - $10,223

Weekly Pivot Point - $9,753
WS1 - $8,875
WS2 - $8,358
WS3 - $7,589


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,231 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

BTC. Major resistnace held successfully
04 September 2019

Bitcoin 1H time-frame:


Yellow rectangle – Downward objective

Pink trendline – Expected path

Black lines – Resistance levels

Bitcoin on the 1-hour did exactly what I expected yesterday and that rejection of the strong resistance at $10.800, which is good sign for the further downside. I placed Pitchfork channel to find potential objective for the downward movement. There is a chance for the re-test of the $9.400. Still, investors are involved in Gold and Silver on the upside and I don't see any indication of any larger demand for the Bitcoin, which is sign that there is more potential downside.


Bitcoin Forecast and recommendations for traders:
Bitcoin is in overall consolidation phase but most recently I found test of the major resistance, which is sign that there is chance for more downside and potential test of $9.400. Thus, I recommend selling crypto currency with a target of $9,400, with a Stop Loss level of $11.000.



Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019