Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for March 24, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
There are reports in India that the local government is considering blocking the IP addresses of cryptocurrency exchanges. Despite reports of bans, many in the Indian cryptocurrency community believe that authorities will not impose a total ban on cryptocurrencies.

As reported by Business Standard, "India is considering blocking the Internet Protocol (IP) addresses of companies / exchanges where cryptocurrency trading takes place." BE Information is based on an anonymous "knowledge source". This measure, if implemented, will confirm the government's efforts to ban cryptocurrencies.

India's Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman recently said a cabinet memo on cryptocurrency laws is being finalized.

The Indian government has previously attempted to block the IP addresses of adult websites and hundreds of Chinese apps, according to the publication. At the same time, it was also noticed that people could still gain access to sites through virtual private networks (VPNs).

Earlier this month, India's Finance Minister said there would "be a very calibrated stance" on cryptocurrencies. He then insisted that the government "does not exclude all options". These statements gave the Indian crypto community hope that India would regulate the crypto industry rather than impose a total ban.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has been consolidating in a narrow range between the levels of $1,648 - $1,718 after the drop below the key short-term technical support located at the level of $1,721. The next target for bears is the 50% Fibonacci retracement level located at $1,618. The momentum is weak and negative, so the bears had hit the intraday technical support at the level of $1,648 already and keep pushing lower. Please notice, the violation of 50% Fibonacci retracement opens the road towards 61% retracement located at $1,541. Only a strong breakout back above $1,729 would terminate the sell-off and put the bulls back into control again.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $2,051
WR2 - $1,965
WR1 - $1,890

Weekly Pivot - $1,807
WS1 - $1,707
WS2 - $1,636
WS3 - $1,545


Trading Recommendations:
The longer term up trend on the Ethereum continues despite the local counter-trend corrections. When the correction is terminated, the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $2,100. The key long term technical support is seen at the level of $1,412, so only a weekly candle close below this level will invalidate the bullish scenario.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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LTC/USD close to key medium-term support

LTC/USD is trading just above critical support at $175. Price has been making higher highs and higher lows since March 2020 and so far it has managed to stay above a key upward sloping trend line that was tested four times already.



Red line - medium-term support

LTC/USD last time it touched the trend line was back in February when price pulled back all the way to $152.85. Since then price bounced strongly towards $229.62 but did not manage to make new highs. Price is now trading at $190 and it is important for the medium-term trend in order to remain bullish, price must hold above the trend line support. Breaking below the trend line will open the way for a move towards $130-$120. Traders could also take advantage of this pull back as price is now very close to a trend reversal level. Each time price tested this trend line, we saw a new upward move following the test. Traders should also take advantage of the fact that the bullish stop is very close as the chances for an upside move are high.




Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio predicted a ban on cryptocurrency investments in the United States



Ray Dalio is the founder of one of the largest hedge funds in the world. Recently, he expressed his opinion that investments in bitcoin and gold can be banned by the US authorities. According to Dalio, the US authorities will raise taxes in the future, and the higher they are, the more people and companies will try to run into cryptocurrencies to avoid paying them. First of all, we are talking about raising taxes for the rich and for large companies, which has already been announced by US President Joe Biden. According to his initiative, which he voiced during the election race, taxes should be raised so that the country can raise funds for recovery from the coronavirus crisis. At the moment, a new package of stimulus measures for the US economy in the amount of 2-4 trillion dollars is being discussed. And one of the sources of funding for this package will be just an additional fiscal burden on rich people and large companies. "Policymakers who are short of money will raise taxes and won't like these capital movements out of debt assets and into other storehold of wealth assets and other tax domains so they could very well impose prohibitions against capital movements to other assets (e.g., gold, Bitcoin, etc.)," Dalio said. There is also an opinion that the ban on cryptocurrencies may be introduced due to the desire of the US government to increase investments in the stock and debt markets. In any case, this is what we have talked about many times: bitcoin is very much hindering the authorities of any country and, in particular, the American ones. All these rumors grow like mushrooms, not from scratch. More and more experts point out that any decentralized currency that is not controlled by the central bank is a "bone in the throat" for the state. However, the vast majority of financiers recommend not to worry about this. If there will be a ban on cryptocurrencies, it will be gradual and for the entire industry at once, and not for individual investments in bitcoin or other tokens. Experts also note that a ban on investing in cryptocurrencies can undermine faith in the financial system and the state, as well as significantly increase the demand for digital assets, so it is unlikely. Analysts believe that the actions of the US government and the Federal Reserve will be aimed at expanding the tax base in order to increase revenues from the cryptocurrency segment to the state treasury. At the same time, it is unlikely that the government will give up trying to fully control the cryptocurrency segment.

Meanwhile, bitcoin has started a new round of decline, but so far it is holding above the first important support-the Kijun-sen line, which lies at the level of $52,300. A rebound from it can trigger a new round of upward movement. Fixing the price lower can lead to the long-awaited strong round of correction of the number one cryptocurrency in the world.




Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Will the trend of BTC/USD change?

Bitcoin is declining, but its upward trend continues to be relevant. Meanwhile, research shows that institutional investors have begun reducing their investment on the main cryptocurrency, while in contrast, the small ones continue to buy it.

CoinShares, a digital asset management company, stated that institutional investors have cut back their Bitcoin investments. For the period of March 15-20, their investments amounted to $ 99 million, against their total amount of $ 242 million a week earlier. And this is despite the fact that at the end of January, the inflow of investments in crypto funds from major market participants reached its record of $ 1.3 billion in one week.

It is worth noting that there was a decline in demand on the part of American companies, but companies from Europe and Canada increased their positions. At the same time, it was noted that the total volume of investments in cryptocurrency funds by institutional investors reached 57 billion US dollars.

As for investment products for the main cryptocurrency, trading volumes declined from $ 1.1 billion to $ 713 million last week. Nevertheless, interest in Bitcoin products remains high – $ 85 million was invested in them, while Ethereum funds and trusts accounted for $ 8 million.

Glassnode's analysts also present an interesting study. They noticed that the holders of the leading digital assent in the amount of 10-100 bitcoins and 1000-10000 bitcoins began to reduce their stocks.

Huge Bitcoin owners of 1,000-10,000 have lowered reserves by 37 thousand BTC, while small owners of 10-100 have also reduced theirs by 56 thousand BTC.

On the other hand, an intermediate group of investors, owning 100-1000 bitcoins, showed themselves by increasing their portfolios. Contrary to the above-mentioned, they raised the reserves to 331 thousand BTC.

There is another interesting class of bitcoin holders that is increasing their volume. These are investors who own less than 1 BTC, whose total share accounts for 5.20% of all mined Bitcoins. The growth in the number of such investors sharply rose after the Bitcoin drop in March last year.

Now, let's discuss the technical part. Looking at the daily chart, it can be seen that Bitcoin has reached the upward support level of 29241.46 - 43,033.38 - 58340.66 on January 27. The bullish or bearish forecast for the BTC/USD pair will depend on whether the current price rebounds from this border or breaks through it. However, even if we test the strength of the trend support line, it will be too early to say that there is a shift in the trend. Thus, it will be necessary to wait for the actual breakdown, which may not happen in just a day.



As for the H4 chart, there is a formation of a correctional downward trend 61,759.10 - 59,869.35 - 53,225.61 from March 13. So far, its support has not yet been reached. However, based on the Fibo expansion, there are prerequisites for a local price return to the level of 100.

In the event of a price downward pullback from it, we can develop the local downward trend and the support for the daily upward trend will be broken. But if the resistance level of 100 by Fibo Expansion is broken, the price of BTC/USD pair may recover further towards the level of 58,340.66, marked with a red dotted line.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Crypto market crashes as the rate of US dollar increases



The crypto market experienced its second day of losses after nearly breaking records last weekend. In fact, according to the latest data, the global market capitalization fell by 3.4%, reaching $ 1.75 trillion. And, at the time of writing, Bitcoin has dropped by 4.5%, struggling to hold above $ 54,000.

What is the reason? Apparently, the evident rise in USD has impacted cryptocurrencies very negatively. Investors are resorting to the US currency amid accelerating economic recovery.

Aside from that, the trade conflict between the EU, US and China also appears to be affecting investor sentiment. Most likely, it will create increasingly harsh conditions for Bitcoin.

But the coronavirus refuses to go away. In fact, many are convinced that another wave will shake the world, and that the return to normalcy will be delayed for a few more months. Will this benefit cryptocurrencies? We are not certain. But the further growth of Bitcoin will depend on whether it can continue to show its growth potential to investors, especially to those who are eager to see positive price movements in cryptocurrencies.




Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Ethereum price decline activated head and shoulders bearish pattern

Ethereum has broken below the support of $1,720-$1,700. Price has activated the head and shoulders bearish pattern with target of $1,500. Price has moved as low as $1,648 today but it is now bouncing towards the broken support which is now resistance.



Green line - support trend line broken

Yellow lines - Head and shoulders pattern

Red line - resistance

Red rectangle - neckline support

ETH/USD is bouncing towards the neckline which is now resistance. This is an important back test of the break down. A rejection at $1,700-$1,720 will open the way for a move for a new short-term low below $1,648. The head and shoulders target is at $1,500. Major resistance is at the red trend line at $1,827. As we explained in previous posts, as long as price is below this level Ethereum is vulnerable to a deep pull back.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Trading Signal for BITCOIN for March 23 - 24, 2021: Sell Below 56,250



The Bitcoin BTC is trading under bearish pressure below the 21 SMA, and is being sustained above the 200 EMA located at 53.122. preventing a change of scenery.

We also notice a downtrend channel, which is prevailing. and we could expect a break of the level of 53,000 and expect a fall to the 8/8 area of murray and the Piscological level of 50,000.

Our recommendation is to sell below the SMA of 21 located at 57,000 and below the 56,250 +1/8 of murray.


Support And Resistance Levels For March 19 - 22, 2021

Resistance (1) $57,323
Resistance (2) $58,226
Resistance (3) $59,366

Support (1) $53,981
Support (2) $52,976
Support (3) $51,441




Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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BTC analysis for March 23,.2021 - First downside target has been reached at the price of $53.000. Potential for test of next downside target at $48.750

Further Development



Analyzing the current trading chart of BTC, I found that sellers are in control today as I expected yesterday and that BTC reached our first yesterday's target at $53,000.

My advice is still to watch for selling opportunities on the rallies with the next downside target at the price of $48,750.


Key Levels:

Resistance: $58,000

Support level: $48,750





Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Analysis of BTC/USD; traders incur huge losses due to sharp fall of BTC/USD

Over the past two weeks, the cryptocurrency market has been on the verge of a new rally. Bitcoin has reached a historical high. Other assets have also approached their maximum levels. There was every reason to believe that the crypto market would soon rally or at least show slow but long-term growth. However, instead, the main cryptocurrencies went down, which led to serious losses of retail investors.

Bitcoin dropped the most, hitting the level of $53.000. Over the past day, investors who traded the BTC/USD pair lost $978 million amid an 8% slump in bitcoin. Trades of more than 235,000 speculators were closed on crypto exchanges around the world. The biggest loss of a trader amounted to $10 million. Those who opened long margin positions on the EUR/USD pair also incurred significant losses. Investors lost about $247 million due to a decline in ether.



The crypto market shrank by 6% amid the sharp drop in cryptocurrencies. Now the total capitalization of the crypto market is $ 1.7 trillion. The daily trading volume, as of March 23, comes in at $ 192 billion. The share in daily operations on the BTC/USD pair decreased to 58.2%. Despite the considerable slump in the value of cryptocurrencies, the fundamental background remains positive. For example, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said, "Bitcoin is lacking key ingredients that would make it a useful currency. As a result, the cryptocurrency is essentially more of a substitute for gold than the dollar. Crypto assets are highly volatile." Coinbase has completed the listing of Cardano and announced support for crypto assets on its platform. Now the maximum number of digital coins on Coinbase has increased to 43.

Despite the positive news, the crypto market was overwhelmed by another wave of correction. The BTC/USD pair suffered the most. Retail traders were ready to continue to open long margin positions as bitcoin had been hovering around the psychological level of $ 60,000 for more than a week. It was expected to add gains. However, BTC faced the consequences of the February rally. The deteriorating economic situation due to the pandemic, the low interest of institutional investors, and fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market delivered a severe blow to the BTC/USD pair.



Another wave of correction pushed bitcoin down to the level of $55,000. If last week speculators expected BTC to break above $60,000 for further growth, now BTC is likely to get stuck at a lower level of $55,000. Despite the positive fundamental background and small investments of Thornton Place, the BTC/USD pair lacks any derivers in order to break above the important psychological level. Most likely, the pair will continue to fluctuate around $53,000-55,000. In addition, due to significant losses, the trading volume of the BTC/USD pair in the total market turnover will continue to plummet in the next few days.




Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin: Selling Pressure Intensifying?

Bitcoin dropped and stands at 54,461 level after failing to take out the immediate resistance levels. The bullish outlook is still intact as the price continues to stay above the short-term uptrend line.

Technically, a new lower low and a breakdown through the uptrend line signal a corrective phase which may be normal after reaching a fresh all-time high of 61,788. Fundamentally, Bitcoin could drop in the short term after the rumors that India's government plans to ban cryptocurrencies in the country.


BTC/USD CORRECTIVE PHASE?


BTC/USD dropped after registering a downside breakout from a minor symmetrical triangle and after failing to make a valid breakout above the descending pitchfork's upper median line (uml).

The price has found support right on the 53,000, above S1 (53,509) and 53,221 former lower low and now is struggling to get back higher. Technically, it could register a minor rebound before challenging the uptrend line.

A valid breakdown through 53,221 and below the uptrend line may signal a larger drop in the short term within the descending pitchfork's body. The immediate resistance is seen at the upper median line (uml), only a valid breakout above it validates a further increase and invalidates a corrective phase.


BITCOIN TIPS & FORECAST!

A bearish closure under 53,000 today's low and violating the uptrend line signals further drop towards the S1 (49,659) and S3 (46,116) levels.

The descending pitchfork's median line (ml) could still attract the price as long as BTC/USD is traded under the upper median line (uml).





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021