Cryptocurrency Analysis

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A stimulus package from Joe Biden and the US government will go to the purchase of bitcoin Relevance up to 13:00 2021-03-19 UTC+8



It has already been mentioned in previous articles that the number of retail investors in bitcoin is growing in 2021. More and more private traders want to join the upward trend, but isn't it too late? In recent weeks, Bitcoin has become more expensive with great difficulty, and there is almost no news fueling the demand for it. Moreover, according to the analysis of all the previous movements of Bitcoin over the past 13 years, the upward trend does not usually last long. In our case, it has been going on for a year, which suggests that it will soon end. Will its completion coincide with a new stimulus package from the US government? This week, Americans will begin to receive checks of $1,400 from Congress and the president. According to a survey conducted by the Japanese investment bank Mizuho, about 40% of US citizens plan to spend the funds received from the state on investments, and half of the respondents plan to buy bitcoin. More accurate figures show that half of those 40% are ready to buy bitcoin, but for an amount not exceeding 20-25% of the received amount. This suggests that the cryptocurrency market may soon flood from 30 to 60 billion dollars (in total, Americans will receive about $380 billion from the state). This, of course, is not such a large amount for the number one cryptocurrency, since its capitalization already exceeds one trillion dollars. Nevertheless, the additional influx of "hamsters" can have a certain impact on the rate of "digital gold" very strongly. Goldman Sachs analysts also report that households will be the main investors in stocks and other assets in 2021. Despite the pandemic and the crisis, more than one and a half trillion dollars have accumulated in the accounts of Americans, which will begin to be spent as the economy recovers. And the American economy is recovering at a really high pace, which allows us to hope for a rapid flow of money to the stock and cryptocurrency markets.

At the same time, the latest round of bitcoin correction is explained very simply. Researchers tracked the movement of 18,000 bitcoins to the wallets of the Gemini cryptocurrency exchange on March 15. Such a large volume of sales of bitcoin caused the number one cryptocurrency to fall by 10% at once. Also recently, there are rumors that miners will soon start selling large volumes of mined bitcoins, as they want to make a profit while the cryptocurrency is on top. Earlier, it was reported that miners in the last year are in no hurry to part with the extracted coins immediately after receiving them. This phenomenon was caused by the strong growth of bitcoin, but now they believe that the most appropriate time has come. All these messages do not add optimism to the BTC quotes.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Cryptocurrency market results for March 17, 2021

Cryptocurrencies remain within the framework of the sideways trends formed over two days. The decline after the weekend was caused by the fixation of long positions. The news that India wants to impose a ban on cryptocurrencies also put pressure on the market. And now the sideways dynamics in narrow corridors can be regarded as a set of positions before the next directional movement of digital currencies.

Bitcoin continues to trade the 100% Fibonacci extension level in both directions. The trading range of the main cryptocurrency on the chart is indicated by a green rectangle with the boundaries of 53225.61 - 57176.73. Now, the price of BTC/USD is in the middle of this corridor, so it can move to any of its borders. The situation with the further direction of bitcoin will be clarified by the breakdown of one of the sideways borders and consolidation above or below it.



Bitcoin Cash continues to trade in the range of 508.94 - 538.35. By the evening, the quotes went down to its lower limit. From the current position, it is possible both to restore the pair in the sideways direction, and to try to break through the support of 508.94. In the second scenario, the target to the south will be the support level of 465.48.



Ripple remains in a narrow sideways position under the resistance level of 0.4539 (blue horizontal). The lower limit of the trading zone is the level of 0.4532, marked with a red dotted line. If the price manages to break through it, the pair will head south to the support level of 0.4071 (red segment).



For Ethereum, the technical picture has also not changed. The quotes are located sideways between the support zone of 1697.27-1789.44 (marked with red dotted lines) and the local mirror resistance of 1813.92, marked with blue dotted lines. So far, the price of ETH/USD is cautiously turning in this range, keeping a small margin to its resistance. And for more clarity and more power reserve, it is necessary to wait for the exit from the specified consolidation corridor.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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JP Morgan: Small buyers make up the majority of Bitcoin buyers in the first quarter of 2021



Bitcoin falls for the fourth day in a row, but so far it is holding above the key supports, which keeps the upward trend. However, it should be recognized that "digital gold" is now becoming much more expensive than they were a couple of months ago. Perhaps the bullish mood among traders and investors has dried up, the influx of new investors may have dried up, and Bitcoin sales may have skyrocketed. One way or another, after the next update of the highs, bitcoin did not continue to move up to $70,000 per coin. It began a new round of correction and is currently aiming for a price value of $52,300. There has been little good news for Bitcoin lately. Recently, it became known that the Indian authorities are planning to completely ban bitcoin on the territory of their country. Bill Gates is constantly criticizing "digital gold." More and more scientists are paying attention to the "non-ecological" nature of BTC. But there is no good news for bitcoin. Yes, cryptocurrency continues to be popularized among investors and traders of various stripes and categories. Yes, more and more banks and payment systems provide services for storing and moving cryptocurrencies. But at the same time, none of the major companies after Tesla and MicroStrategy made more statements about investing in Bitcoin. Thus, the number of institutional investors continues to grow, but they are clearly not large companies that would make appropriate statements. According to JPMorgan, retail investors bought more bitcoin coins in the first quarter than institutional investors. The difference between the volumes of purchases is small, but it was still individuals who invested in bitcoin more often in the first three months of 2021. It is not known how many small investors are among them, but we can imagine that there are quite a few. Thus, bitcoin once again becomes dependent on the public opinion of small investors. Maybe not as much as three years ago, but still. If most small traders decide to get rid of bitcoin, then its rate can sink by 50% or more. Who knows what might happen when a lot of small investors or traders unite, like what has already been shown at the beginning of the year by the Reddit community on the example of the GameStop game store shares.



As for the technical picture, Bitcoin quotes are currently striving for the first serious support - the Kijun-sen line, which lies at the level of $52,300. A clear rebound from this line may already trigger a new upward movement, but it seems that this time the cryptocurrency has more desire to decline into the area of $43,000-44,000 per coin, where there is another strong support area. Much will depend on the Kijun-sen line in the coming days.




Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin in bullish short-term channel preparing for a move towards $65,000

BTC/USD after reaching our target just above $60,000 has pulled back as expected when the short-term bullish channel was broken at $59,300. Price has made a higher low at $53,316 and is now approaching $59,000 again. Bitcoin has the potential to run higher over the next few weeks for a move towards $65,000 or even $70,000.



Green lines - bullish channel

Support is found at $54,300. As long as price is above this level we remain short-term bullish looking for a move to new all time highs. Our first target is at the upper channel boundary near $63,600. Price is making higher highs and higher lows. Trend remains clearly bullish however we should not ignore the bearish divergence warnings by the RSI. That is why stops to protect profits should be raised. $54,300 is my stop and if price reaches my first target and the RSI provides another divergence, then I would prefer to partially liquidate longs.




Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Trading Signal for BITCOIN for March 17 - 18, 2021: Key level $54,500



The Bitcoin on the 4-hour chart is trading above the uptrend channel, and below the 21 SMA, and below Murray's +1/8 with a bullish signal, limited as it has strong resistance at 56,250, which exerts pressure.

Bitcoin found support around $ 53,350 after collapsing from the recent all-time high. However, recovery has been slow. Meanwhile, this is expected to be a correction for further momentum to the target at $ 62,500 +2/8 Murray.

The seemingly imminent bullish outlook is being lost as the eagle indicator is pointing towards negative territory, as seen on the 4-hour chart.

If the BTC weakness continues it should break out of its uptrend channel and point towards a correction at $ 50,000 levels, zone of the 200 EMA.

Conversely, if it consolidates above $ 54,500, there is still a bullish outlook, and we could buy with targets at 57,250 and 62,500.


Support And Resistance Levels For March 17 - 18, 2021

Resistance (1) $56,958
Resistance (2) $57,772
Resistance (3) $59,144

Support (1) $54,172
Support (2) $52,336
Support (3) $50,573





Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin Drops As Expected!

Bitcoin stands at 55,234 level and it could extend its decline after failing to stabilize above the near-term obstacles. I've told you yesterday that BTC/USD may drop further after retesting a near-term obstacle.

Technically, BTC/USD could slip lower trying to capture more bullish energy before resuming the major uptrend. The outlook is bullish, so the current drop may be only a temporary and a natural one after the last swing higher.


BTC/USD ATTRACTED BY A CONFLUENCE AREA!



BTC/USD rebounded and retested the Pivot Point (56,692) and now it could approach the S1 (51,609) and the uptrend line. The bearish engulfing printed right on the pivot point indicates a selling pressure in the short term and that the retreat may resume.

The price failed to come back towards the descending pitchfork's upper median line (uml) indicating a deeper drop. The upside scenario remains intact as long as BTC/USD is traded within the up channel's body, above the uptrend line.


FORECAST & TIPS!

Today's bearish engulfing signals further drop in the short term. The S1 (51,609) and the uptrend line are seen as immediate downside obstacles, support levels. A larger decline, a bearish reversal, could be signaled only by a valid breakdown through the uptrend line.

A buying opportunity will be signaled by a reversal pattern, false breakdown through the uptrend line, or by a valid breakout above the descending pitchfork's upper median line (uml).




Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Rally of major cryptocurrencies put on hold

The crypto market has faced strong resistance which does not allow the main cryptocurrencies to grow. Bitcoin turned out to be the only virtual asset to set new highs. The world's most valued cryptocurrency advanced to $61.5K and since then has fallen for three consecutive sessions. Other major altcoins have not shown any increase for four days in a row.

A correction that hit the crypto market at the end of February seems to have ended. However, the main cryptocurrencies are still unable to rise. The news background also does not make the situation any better. Even Bitcoin's resilience did not help it to consolidate at $60K and extend the rally.



The top cryptocurrency has lost 12% over the last three days and is now trading at $54K. BTC's resilience helped it consolidate only above $50K. Given a stable news background, the token has a great chance to advance in the future. Still, it is not clear for how long the price will move upward amid the caution of large investors.

Meanwhile, Ethereum still cannot break the $1800 barrier. It sometimes sinks to $1750. Possibly this is due to the recent ETH network upgrade or the decision of over 100 companies to migrate from Ethereum and Cardano. The altcoin is now trading in the $1700-1800 price range.



As for Ripple's XRP, it has been trading at $0.455 for over a week. The token is unlikely to grow due to a SEC vs Ripple case. Recently, the crypto giant has filed a formal response to the SEC and requested documents related to the agency's determination that Bitcoin and Ethereum are not securities. The market awaits the outcome of the court battle.



Litecoin is stuck at the price range of $190-200. Given the current market situation, the price of the coin will be under the influence of general crypto market sentiment. Anyway, only small price fluctuations are highly likely in the crypto market in the next few days.



The current situation may be the consequence of the euphoria in the crypto market that took place in February. In this regard, some assets have acquired cyclical features. That is, they started to depend on investor sentiment. This is clearly evident now when large investors are cautiously looking towards the crypto market due to the possibility of new lockdowns in Europe.




Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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BTC analysis for March 17,.2021 - Sellers in control and potential for the downside movement towards $48.000

Further Development



Analyzing the current trading chart of BTC, I found that there is potential for the another downside wave towards the levels at $52,000 and $48,720.


Key Levels:

Resistance: $57,000

Support level: $52,000 and $48,720.




Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Elon Musk to sell music track about NFTs



Tesla's CEO, Elon Musk, said he is selling his music track on NFTs. Many people expressed their interest in purchasing it. For example, American digital artist 'Beeple' gave him a $ 69 million offer. At the time of writing, his tweet has collected 42.7 thousand comments and received 176.2 thousand likes. His 2:20 minute video has also been viewed over 8.5 million times.

Many have also written down the amount they are willing to pay, and among those is TRON founder Justin Sun, who simply stated, "Okay. I will buy".

But going back to Mike Winkelmann, also known as Beeple, he recently made headlines when his NFT art was auctioned at Christie's for $ 69 million. He wrote to Musk: "I'll give you $ 69 million for this." Musk replied: "420 million doges." Beeple immediately replied, "Sold."

However, it is unclear if Beeple is serious about his proposal, and at the time of writing, Musk still has not responded to him. The price of dogecoin is currently $ 0.058043.

Shortly after Musk made his tweet, a $ 3 bid appeared on Valuables, a platform for buying and selling tweets as NFTs.

And, at the time of writing, the highest bid for Musk's NFT is $ 1,121,000, and this is made by the CEO of Bridge Oracle. He tweeted to Musk: "Elon Musk, I made an offer to buy your tweet." Musk is yet to respond to the tweet.




Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Trading plan for Bitcoin for March 17, 2021



Technical outlook:

Bitcoin has been on the back foot and in control of bears since printing highs at $61,781 over the weekend. It might be too early to confirm the same at this moment, but a meaningful top might be in place. A break below $52,650 levels will confirm that it has turned lower and bears shall remain in control, going forward.

The crypto is seen to be trading around $55,250 levels at this point in writing and might be preparing for another drop towards $52,000 mark, before finding interim support. Immediate resistance is fixed at $61,780 mark, while support comes in around $43,000 levels respectively. A break below $43,000 will confirm a much deeper correction going forward.

The overall structure has been indicating a religious uptrend since $3,850 lows but might have turned bearish since hitting $61,780 highs. Also note that if prices stay above $52,650 levels, possibility remains for yet another high above $61,780, before Bitcoin gives in to bears again. We shall bring in updates according to how price action unfolds.


Trading plan:

Preparing to sell again. Waiting for a break below $52,650.

Good luck!




Oscar Ton
Analytical expert
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