Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin forecast for March 4, 2021 – BUY/SELL. Monthly gain: +10.93%

1. Analysis of Bitcoin volume on Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)

The analysis is based on the horizontal volumes data on daily charts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The analysis is carried out based on the footprint-profile theory. According to the theory, the direction of the level with the highest trade volume within a day can indicate the likely direction of the trend. The highest trade volume is the level with the largest number of transactions carried out. That is, it is the level of major market players. Accordingly, if the highest trade volume level goes up, it indicates an upward trend. Otherwise, if the highest trade volume level goes down, it indicates a downward trend. Chaotic movements signal that the market is trading flat.

02.03.21 – The level of the maximum traded volume (POC – PointOfControl) – 48,045
03.03.21 – The level of the maximum traded volume (POC – PointOfControl) – 51,690

The POC has moved up. The price is below the POC level. The upward trend seems to have started. Thus, you can open long positions.


2. Analysis of long-term trend

A trend is the trader's friend. Many traders know this saying but do not know how to use it. The answer is simple: to trade only in the direction of a trend. Thus, your trades will have more profit potential with less risk. According to the classic Dow theory, there are three main trends:

-long-term
-medium-term
-short-term

These are the trends you should analyze before entering the market. This is what we are going to do in the analysis below.

The long-term trend is the daily trend. In this case, deals are made in the daily time frame and are held for several days. The analysis of the daily trend is made with the help of the 48-period exponential moving average (EMA). If the daily candlestick closes above EMA(48), it will indicate the upward trend. Therefore, you should enter long. If the daily candlestick closes below EMA(48), then it is the downward trend and you should enter short.



The price is above EMA (48). The chart indicates an upward trend. Therefore, you should consider opening long positions.


3. Analysis of medium-term trend

The medium-term trend is the trend on the 4-hour chart (H4). In this case, we will also turn to EMA(48). If the candlestick closes above EMA(48) on the 4-hour chart, it will indicate the upward trend. Thus, you should enter long. Otherwise, if the candlestick closes below EMA(48) on the H4 chart, it will indicate the downward trend. Consequently, you should enter short.



The price is in line with EMA (48). It is the medium-term sideways trend. This means you can both buy and selll the token.


4. Analysis of short-term trend

A short-term trend is the trend in the H1 time frame. Moreover, it can show an entry point into the market well. We will turn to EMA(48) again. If the candlestick closes above EMA(48) on the H1 chart, it will indicate the upward trend. Thus, you should enter long. Alternatively, if the candlestick closes below EMA(48), it will indicate the downward trend. Consequently, you should enter short.



The price is in line with EMA(48). It is the short-term sideways trend. Thus, you can both sell and buy the instrument. The long-term, the medium-term, and the short-term trend do not coincide.


5. Japanese candlestick analysis

A classic Japanese candlestick analysis is applied to the daily timeframe. In this particular analysis, we will also look at the daily candlestick.



Thus, we have a white upward daily candlestick. Its high is above the high of the previous candlestick. The candlestick has a large body. The upward movement is highly likely.


6. Conclusion

Volume analysis – BUY
Long-term trend – BUY
Medium-term trend – BUY/SEL
Short-term trend – BUY/SELL
Japanese candlestick analysis – BUY

Conclusion: On March 4, 2021, you can open both sell and buy deals.



7. Statistics

To analyze how effective this approach is, the data on completed transactions is tracked. The forecast is made for four instruments: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and BCH/USD. Trading account monitoring:



February 2021 gain: +10.93%.


Statement:

Current deals:

02.03.21 Bitcoin BUY: 49,249.81 SL: 44,455; Risk per deal: 1% from a $10,000 deposit with a trading volume of 0.2 lot.

Stop-loss orders for new trades can be placed beyond the daily extreme point. We do not set Take-profit orders, as we will continue to move SL beyond the extreme points of the future sessions.

Since trading is carried out on the daily charts, this recommendation remains relevant throughout the day.

Trade with the trend and you will make a profit!



Maxim Petrov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Mark Cuban: gold is dead, digital assets to be future of business



Recently, analysts have been comparing gold with bitcoin. In fact, they more and more often call bitcoin "digital gold". Billionaire Mark Cuban supposes that gold is dying as a means of saving money. At the same time, the blockchain technology continues developing. Crypto currencies are attracting more and more investors. Transactions are becoming faster and cheaper.

Cuban also believes that gold prices are higher than they really are. At the same time, some crypto sceptics think that bitcoin is overestimated, has no sound reasons for a rise, and represents a bubble that may burst any time. However, Cuban does not share the opinion of those analysts who consider bitcoin as nonentity. He has a completely opposite view on the first cryptocurrency. He sees bitcoin as a technology that allows people to transfer money fast and cheaply. The blockchain technology could be applied in various aspects of science and technology.

"Gold was a SOV built on technology. From picks and shovels to mining operations that keep trying to improve. Whoever could use the tech of the day to find and mine the most efficiently was the most rewarded. Much like Crypto is today," Cuban said.

Importantly, just a year ago, the investor had an opposite opinion about bitcoin. However, the popularization of the crypto currency made a lot of people change their mind.

We would like to emphasize that most investors expect that bitcoin will hit new record highs every day. In fact, the asset may gain in value for years or decades. Bitcoin needed 13 years to reach the current levels. What is more, the fundamental data also influences the bitcoin price.

Recently, it became known that experts at JPMorgan considered bitcoin the worst means for risk diversification. They did not recommend their clients making large investments in the cryptocurrency. Bill Gates also made negative comments about the asset. Notably, most people believe him. The former head of Microsoft said that the crypto currency mining requires a lot of energy and is highly harmful to the environment. Moreover, transactions also consume a lot of energy. At the same time, most experts suppose that at the beginning of 2021, there were a lot of events concerning bitcoin. That is why the crypto currency may enter a calm period and consolidation. We think that the consolidation above $52,400 per coin could become a signal of a new surge.




Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for March 4, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Technology giant Amazon has just announced the general availability of Ethereum on its own managed blockchain.

According to Amazon Web Services, aka AWS, users now have the ability to "provision Ethereum nodes" and connect to the blockchain core network in addition to the Ropsten and Rinkeby test networks via an Amazon-managed blockchain. The program aims to offer secure network access using "standard open source Ethereum APIs" and synchronizes with the Ethereum blockchain.

"Amazon Managed Blockchain monitors the health of nodes, replaces unhealthy nodes, and automates Ethereum software updates, improving the availability of customers' Ethereum infrastructure," says AWS. "In addition to DeFi applications, customers building analytics products such as smart contract monitoring tools and fraud detection software can also take advantage of this scalable, highly available and fully managed Ethereum service."

AWS launched its Amazon Managed Blockchain for the first time in April 2019, claiming that customers will be able to set up blockchain networks in their organizations and use the Ethereum and Hyperledger open source platforms. It was claimed that the service could eliminate the need to "provision hardware, install software, create and manage access control certificates, and configure network settings":

The move came exactly one month after Jeff Bezos announced that he would step down as Amazon CEO in the third quarter of 2021. Andy Jassy, who is now president of Amazon Web Services and oversees the company's crypto offering, is to be replaced.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has failed to rally after the break out above the trend line resistance located at the level of $1,600. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $1,650 , but even if this level is hit, then the next most important target for bulls is the overbalance level located at $1,619. As long as the market trades below the overbalance level, the correction to the downside might develop. Please keep an eye on the RSI indicator as it clearly shows the momentum is barely positive.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $2,368
WR2 - $2,149
WR1 - $1,728

Weekly Pivot - $1,511
WS1 - $1,076
WS2 - $857
WS3 - $438


Trading Recommendations:
During the recent corrective cycle Ethereum has lost almost 50% of its value , but the longer term up trend on the Ethereum continues. When the correction is terminated, the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $2,100. The key long term technical support is seen at the level of $1,412, so only a weekly candle close below this level will invalidate the bullish scenario.







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for March 4, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Billionaire Tim Draper predicts Netflix will be the next Fortune 500 company to invest in bitcoin.

In a new episode of Unstoppable Podcast, Draper stated that if he were managing the finances of a corporate behemoth, he would be looking at BTC as a potential hedge against a lot of things.

"If I were the chief financial officer of one such large organization, I would say," We must have X% in bitcoin, "because that is a hedge against another currency that will become the currency of the future, and a hedge against inflation as governments print more and more of their funny dollars. "

Draper Associates founder says Netflix CEO Reed Hastings fits the profile of someone who may choose to put bitcoin on their company's balance sheet.

"Do you know who that could be? Netflix. I think Reed Hastings is a very innovative guy and he thinks very creatively. Google could do something, but I think all of them: Google, Facebook, and Apple are trying to ... Create a centralized currency for their property. And then Amazon. Although Amazon will probably start accepting bitcoin soon... ".

Draper adds that organizations will increasingly and inevitably jump aboard a train called bitcoin, looking for ways to fulfill their fiduciary duties.

"You know who else will have to do this? Pension sector operators - all people who are trustees and have to care for people's money. They will have to own some bitcoins because ... They are confidants, they need to understand all the markets and see where the potential profit is, the potential loss, the hedging needed - all that comes with it. "


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD bounce had been capped at the level of $52,506 where the market reversed after the Doji candlestick was made. The market reversed towards the level of $49,650 which is the lower boundary of the last ascending channel. Any breakout lower will directly expose the technical support located at the level of $48,355 - $48,021. The key short-term technical support is located at $45, 710.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $66,669
WR2 - $61,820
WR1 - $52,326

Weekly Pivot - $47,444
WS1 - $38,017
WS2 - $33,139
WS3 - $23,184


Trading Recommendations:
The bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $60,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $41,125 is clearly broken.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading plan for Bitcoin for March 04, 2021



Immediate resistance remains fixed around $58,300 mark, while interim support comes in at $43,100 levels respectively. A break below $4,300 would accelerate the proposed decline and drag lower towards $37,000 at least. Also note that potential remains for a drop towards $29,000 price support as well. Bitcoin might have carved a lower high around $52,000 mark recently.

The overall wave structure also reveals that the entire rally that had begun from $3,850 levels in March 2020, might be complete at $58,300 levels recently. A corrective decline towards $37,000 levels remain high probability if not lower, since $37,000 is also fibonacci 0.382 retracement of the above rally. Bitcoin should remain well supported around $29,000 levels going forward.


Trading plan:

Remain short, stop @ 60,000, target $37,000 and $29,000.

Good luck!




Oscar Ton
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Forex Analysis & Review



In the previous article, we already said that bitcoin is aiming for a new round of corrective movement, within which it can fall to at least $ 43,000 per coin. Next, everything will depend on how the large holders of the cryptocurrency will act. If new sales follow, the "cue ball" can complete the next round of "hype growth" and rush down to the area of $ 10-20 thousand per coin, where it can spend a couple of years. However, if the bulls keep the cryptocurrency from falling below $ 43,000, then at least one more round of upward movement may follow, within which the price may rise to $ 75,000.

Bitcoin itself does not lose popularity, however, other cryptocurrencies do not sleep. For example, over the past month, the social network Twitter has had more mentions of the Dogecoin cryptocurrency than Bitcoin. This means that they are not united by bitcoin. In the future, several cryptocurrencies will be able to compete with bitcoin for the title of "digital gold". In favor of the "cue ball" now speaks the fact that it is the oldest cryptocurrency, respectively, it had much more time to become and gain popularity than all its competitors. Moreover, bitcoin has become less volatile over the years. The current movements of the "cue ball" quotes are less volatile than, for example, in 2013, when the cryptocurrency rose in price by 350% in November. It should be remembered that the price of bitcoin started with a few dollars. Accordingly, the increase in the cost from $ 2 to $ 4 is 100% growth. How many such 100% were on the way to the mark of $ 58.5 thousand? Thus, some experts are confident that despite the high volatility of "digital gold" and the lack of regulation and security, it will continue to grow in the long term. The more owners bitcoin will have, the more it will be worth, the less volatility will be. As we said earlier, many large companies and investment funds abandon the "cue ball" precisely because it is too volatile. It turns out that in 5-6 years, when bitcoin may be worth more than $ 100,000, its volatility may decrease by 2 or 3 times. Consequently, it will continue to attract the largest investors and is increasingly used as a tool for hedging risks. From our point of view, only governments and central banks can prevent this, for which bitcoin is like a bone in the throat. But so far, there should be no serious concerns about this, since the Fed and the ECB regularly comment on cryptocurrencies, but so far everything goes without serious actions to regulate it.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin prepares for a new fall to $43,000. Amazon and Netflix may extend digital gold price rise



Bitcoin managed to rise to $52.5 thousand per coin. Therefore, a huge number of experts immediately announced the restoration of the upward trend and the imminent update of the absolute highs. However, not everything is so fast and so good. Of course, bitcoin is one of the most popular things in the last 10 years, if not the most. Cryptocurrency can grow in one day by $5-10 thousand, but it still can not do it all the time. In order for the cryptocurrency to grow, new investors are needed, a constant influx of new investors. Otherwise, the price will stand in one place. And when the outflow of investors begins, the price will begin to fall. And in order for the influx of investors to continue, more and more companies and institutional investors need to believe in the growth of bitcoin. However, not all companies are ready to follow the example of Tesla and MicroStrategy. Even though many banks and payment systems have recently announced their willingness to integrate cryptocurrencies into their professional activities and allow their customers to store and transfer bitcoin, it is still not the same as investing in bitcoin, as Elon Musk's company and an analytical software provider did. Thus, at the current high cost levels, there are few people willing to buy bitcoin. Venture capitalist Tim Draper, who is a fan of bitcoin, believes that the next major investor in the cryptocurrency will be the streaming service Netflix. Draper also expects that the ability to pay with bitcoin will be added by the largest online platform Amazon. By the way, there are no comments from the official representatives of these companies. Although, in the case of Amazon, this is quite real, because it is simply about enabling users to pay with cryptocurrency. But in the case of Netflix, everything is more complicated, since we are talking about investments. Thus, the "foundation" for bitcoin is as follows: if there are new large investors in the near future, then "digital gold" can conquer the level of $60,000 per coin. But even this level looks already unprecedentedly high. We are leaning towards a new round of correction, and here's why.



On the daily timeframe, it can clearly be seen that the price has adjusted by 61.8% Fibonacci after falling from $58.5 thousand per coin. Thus, the technical picture is very similar to the beginning of a new round of correction, in which bitcoin can go below its previous local low of about $43 thousand per coin. Thus, we expect a new drop in bitcoin, and if the 44,000 support does not stand, the correction may be delayed and strengthened.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Look how well the levels worked out! Cryptocurrency market results for 03/03/21

Bitcoin and some altcoins have technically worked out the nearby levels, while Ripple and Ethereum have not yet reached the nearest technical goals. What's next for the top cryptocurrencies and will Bitcoin continue to grow?

Bitcoin reached the resistance level of 61.8 on Fibo Expansion (near the mark of 52068.06) and technically bounced off this horizontal. This level has been repeatedly confirmed, which indicates its strength and that the Fibonacci extension works well.

After the current rebound, BTC USD has the potential to decline to the support level of 48178.13, if this is indeed a reversal. As an alternative scenario, there remains a second attempt to break through the level of 61.8 and move further to the level of 100 by Fibo Expansion.



Bitcoin Cash worked out the resistance level of 551.56 for the second time, marked with a red dotted line, bouncing down from it. Against this background, the preferred scenario for BCH USD quotes is a return to the range of 465.48 - 508.94 and a decline in it. But, if bitcoin immediately returns to growth, then BCHUSD can test the level of 551.56 for strength.



Ripple went up after fixing above the level of 0.4348, but the horizontal 0.4769 (blue segment) has not yet reached. Although, the technical potential of restoration to this border still remains. If today's growth attempt has exhausted the local upward potential of the pair, then the horizontal 0.4348 can again be tested for strength.



Ethereum has consolidated above the area of 1519.84 - 1572.74, but has not yet reached the next target of 1697.27 (red dotted line). From a technical point of view, ETH USD still has the potential to recover, unless the downward correction of bitcoin pulls the pair down.



Litecoin failed today to overcome the resistance of 195.06, marked with a red dotted line. The LTC USD pair remains in a narrow range of 186.48 - 195.06, and in which direction the exit from it will occur may depend on the further dynamics of the main cryptocurrency. But this is not a fact, since litecoin now does not clearly correlate with bitcoin.






Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Short-term analysis in XRP/USD

XRP/USD is trading around $0.44. Price remains below the major long-term resistance area of $0.62-$0.75 where a double top formation was created. However in the nearer term, price has potential to push towards $0.51.



Red rectangles -resistance areas

Green lines - size of upward move if short-term resistance is broken

XRP/USD has short-term resistance at $0.45-$0.4550. If this resistance level is broken I expect Ripple to rise at least towards $0.51. Inability to break above the short-term resistance might lead to a rejection and move lower towards $0.35. Short-term support is found at $0.4195-$0.42. Breaking below this level the chances for a move towards $0.38-40.35 will increase. As long as price is below $0.45 Ripple is vulnerable to more downside.






Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for March 03, 2021



Technical market outlook (Bitcoin | BTC/USD)

If Bitcoin can stay above $47 k, it would mark an end to the recent pullback.

Last week, Bitcoin fell remain within a framework of correction from the high price of 58,258 USD to the bottom of 43,117 USD.

Today : 03/03/2021 - Currently price sets at 51k USD.

Closing above the Pivot Point (49k) could assure that BTC/USD will move higher towards cooling new highs. The bulls must break through $49,500 in order to resume the up trend.

Bitcoin is at an all-time high against the dollar around the spot of $ $49 k- $50 k - Bitcoin is inside in upward channel.

Closing above the major support ($49 k) could assure that BTC/USD will move higher towards cooling new highs. $49 k is continuing rising by market cap at 8% in a day, 25% in a week and is trading at $52k after it reached $50k earlier.

Bitcoin has been set above the strong support at the price of $51k, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend. The market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of $50 k.

Buy orders are recommended above the area of $50,500 with the first target at the price of $52 k; and continue towards $53,800 in order to test the last bullish wave.

On the other hand , if the BTC/USD fails to break through the resistance price of $53,800 today, the market will decline further to $47,800.


Trading BTC/USD :

The trend is still bullish as long as the price of $50,000 is not broken. Thereupon, it would be wise to buy above the price of at $50,000 with the primary target at $53,800. Then, the BTC/USD pair will continue towards the second target at $56,530 (a new target is around $56,530).


Alternative scenario :

The breakdown of $47,800 will allow the pair to go further down to the prices of $46 k and $44 k.




Mourad El Keddani
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021