Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for February 25, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
A new report has been released in which it estimates the total number of cryptocurrency users worldwide has increased from 66 million in May 2020 to 106 million in January 2021.

Given the complexity of mapping unique crypto wallet addresses to number of people, the methodology used in the report combines the data from the chain with several mixed parameters to calculate separate estimates for the two largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, Bitcoin and Ethereum. They then provide an aggregate that can be used to track user growth trends across the globe.

Over the past eight months, June 2020, August 2020 and January 2021 were the strongest in terms of growth. The report notes that this increase essentially correlates with the strength of Bitcoin's price, however, splitting the data between the two coins may provide more detailed information.

In January, the global number of Bitcoin users was estimated at 71 million, compared with 14 million for Ethereum. Both cryptocurrencies saw massive user growth this month - 30.2% and 13.1% respectively.

While the trends appear to be clear, the report has highlighted some limitations and caveats that need to be kept in mind regarding its findings. The methodology relies on data from the Bitcoin and Ethereum chains, survey analysis and Crypto.com internal data, however, it is unlikely to be effective in capturing over-the-counter users and off-chain transactions.

The report also had to assume and estimate how many users on the web still own cryptocurrencies, compared to the number that has likely already sold its resources. In addition, the sampling error (due to some use of internal research and data) as well as possible differences between stock exchange deposit flows should be taken into account.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD bounce had been capped at the level of $1,700, which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down. The nearest technical resistance is located at the level of $1,648 and if this level is violated, then the next targets for bulls are $1,700 and 1,779 again. The intraday support is seen at the levels of $1,554 and $1,478. Please notice the momentum is still weak and negative, so that might be the end of the correction. The weekly and monthly time frame trend is still up. The bullish scenario is valid as long as the level of $1,412 is broken.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $2,476
WR2 - $2,254
WR1 - $2,101

Weekly Pivot - $1,876
WS1 - $1,724
WS2 - $1,492
WS3 - $1,337


Trading Recommendations:
The up trend on the Ethereum continues and the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $2,100, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. Please notice, the up trend starting to go vertical, so the volatility will be higher than average. The bullish scenario is valid as long as the level of $1,412 is broken.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Apart from bitcoin's rally, Dogecoin skyrockets by 1,100% in three days



Besides, this cryptocurrency has benefited from the media hype that sprang up at the beginning of the year on account of the shares of the GameStop store. In general, the digital currency is now trading at elevated levels, having gained wide popularity. Originally, it collected donations on various forums.

Meanwhile, Musk's name is now being more frequently associated with bitcoin. We have already written earlier that the shares of the Tesla company are now pegged to the bitcoin exchange rate from the viewpoint of many experts. Despite the fact that both Tesla shares and the bitcoin exchange rate have fallen in value over the past few days, experts are still optimistic about their future. Almost everyone believes that bitcoin will continue to strengthen, especially provided that the US Congress is on the track to approve new paychecks to Americans in the amount of $1,400 per person. Of course, not everyone will rush to buy the number one cryptocurrency and Tesla shares, but many will do exactly like that. Experts warn that lots of retail investors worldwide are buying bitcoin with borrowed funds in the hope of making a profit. However, as we have already said, not all bitcoin holders will eventually make profits. Some of them will incur losses. But in the course of time, when the world economy gets back on track, many investors will opt to sell bitcoin. So, other safe and less volatile trading instruments will become more attractive for investment.




Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Large institutional investors sold 140,000 BTC in February



Over the past few days, Bitcoin has gone through quite a lot. Or better yet, not bitcoin, but its owners. The exchange rate of the largest cryptocurrency sank by 20%, which many regarded as the beginning of the collapse. But this collapse has not yet taken place, although it is extremely difficult for the cryptocurrency to grow at this time. According to the analytics company Glassnode, large institutional investors sold 140,000 bitcoin coins worth almost $7 billion in February. This is about investors whose wallets are concentrated from 1,000 to 10,000 BTC. Meanwhile, those investors who have from 100 to 1000 BTC acted differently – they bought about 117,000 bitcoin coins in February. Thus, you do not need to have brilliant analytical skills to make a conclusion: the largest investors began to slowly get rid of bitcoin, and smaller traders continue to buy it. Bear in mind that this is a market, albeit cryptocurrency, but still a market. It does not happen here that everyone bought bitcoin, then everyone sold it and everyone won. Someone wins and someone loses. Thus, it is necessary to be very attentive to the opinion that "digital gold" can collapse down at absolutely any moment. The largest investors will sooner or later begin to get rid of bitcoin, and those who will believe that it will become more expensive will buy it. Thus, someone will still buy the "bits" at the maximum value, after which they will begin to fall. Growth cannot continue forever.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, is trading near the $50,000 mark per coin. The cryptocurrency exchange rate perfectly worked out the Kijun-sen line on the 24-hour timeframe. Thus, according to all the canons of technical analysis, the upward movement should now resume. Yesterday ended with an increase of almost $1000, the exchange rate of the cue ball is becoming more expensive today, so we would conclude that the cryptocurrency is still preparing, at least, for another round of upward movement. In the coming days, everything will still depend on various kinds of messages and social media posts. We have repeatedly drawn the attention of traders that the cryptocurrency market is such that just one post on Twitter from Elon Musk is enough for the cryptocurrency to rise in price by $10,000. So, instead of news feeds, it's now better to track the Twitter account of the owner of Tesla and SpaceX. Of course, this is merely a joke, but there is only a fraction of a joke in every joke. Large owners of the cue ball benefit from arranging a hype around the cryptocurrency, so that it becomes even more expensive. So in the coming days, we will probably see a bunch of new forecasts that bitcoin is aiming to conquer new heights.




Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bitcoin has returned to the buying zone

The test of the limit buyers zone 48200-46930 stopped the coin's fall. An accumulation zone has formed, the boundaries of which are the extremes of the current week. Working within this flat will allow you to search for buy patterns from the buyers' zone, which we have defined at levels 48200-46930. The search for a sell pattern is possible if bitcoin again tests the mark of $ 55,000. The specified zone of limit buyers is also a break-even zone, so purchases in this range can be held until the formation of a reversal model of the medium-term order or the continuation of growth and the update of the annual maximum.



The reversal pattern will become relevant if the closing of one or two daily candles occurs below the level of 46930. This will open the way for bitcoin to decline to $ 40,000 per coin. Until this happens, the probability of updating the annual maximum is 75%. This indicates the possibility of holding already opened purchases and opening new ones when testing the zone of limit buyers.




Samanta Kruder
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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echnical Analysis of ETH/USD for February 24, 2021

Ethereum bounces towards the key short-term technical resistance

Crypto Industry News:
Lark Davis, aka "The Crypto Lark," warned that Ethereum's competitors will continue to shed users due to steadily rising gas charges if Eth2 is not launched soon.

Despite forecasting five-digit Ether prices in 2021, Davis says Ethereum's soaring charges mean that only "rich investors" can afford to use the network, prompting smaller users to switch to competitors such as Binance Smart Chain (BSC ).

Davis noted that BSC is now enjoying a surge in popularity, with BSC-based DApps volumes catching up with their Ethereum rivals.

Describing current gas prices as "completely locomotive", Davis called on Ethereum developers to accelerate the launch of Eth2 in response to the surge to prevent further user churn to cheaper alternatives:

"But now we've come to the point where ETH 1.0 - oh we need ETH 2.0 so soon, come on Vitalik, get started man - ETH 1.0, most regular users don't use the Ethereum app. $ 50 and that's just crazy. "

Phase 0 of Eth2 was launched in December 2020, allowing Ethereum users to lock down Ether from betting. Robust scaling capabilities are expected to be activated with the launch of Eth2 Stage 1, which is expected to fragment at the earliest in late 2021.

According to Bitinfocharts.com, average Ethereum trading prices have risen to an all-time high of around $ 30. At the time of the cryptocurrency market crash on Monday, February 22, the average gas charge was as high as $ 50.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has bounced from the lows around the level of $1,380 and retrace over 39% of that last wave down already. The nearest technical resistance is located at the level of $1,648 and this is the main hurdle for the bulls. If violated, then the next targets for bulls are $1,700 and 1,779. Please notice the momentum is still weak and negative, so that might not be the end of the correction. The weekly and monthly time frame trend is still up. The bullish scenario is valid as long as the level of $1,412 is broken.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $2,476
WR2 - $2,254
WR1 - $2,101

Weekly Pivot - $1,876
WS1 - $1,724
WS2 - $1,492
WS3 - $1,337


Trading Recommendations:
The up trend on the Ethereum continues and the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $2,100, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. Please notice, the up trend starting to go vertical, so the volatility will be higher than average. The bullish scenario is valid as long as the level of $1,412 is broken.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for February 24, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
US electric car giant Tesla saw huge gains on its investment in Bitcoin, reportedly reaching revenues of up to $ 1 billion, according to a new report.

An analyst for Wedbush Securities, a private investment firm in the United States, calculated that Tesla earned "about $ 1 billion" following its $ 1.5 billion investment in Bitcoin. Daniel Ives estimated Tesla's BTC gains in a note to investors on Saturday.

In the face of Bitcoin's parabolic rise to become a $ 1 trillion asset, Ives said:

Tesla is on track to earn more from its Bitcoin investments than it does from selling electric cars throughout 2020.

Ives noted that Tesla's move is likely to affect other public companies. "While the Bitcoin investment is an add-on for Tesla, it was clearly a good investment and therefore a trend where we expect it to be able to impact other public companies in the next 12 to 18 months," he wrote. However, Ives expects only a small fraction of the market to follow the trend due to regulatory uncertainty issues:

"We continue to expect less than 5% of publicly traded companies to follow this path until more regulatory frameworks are placed in the cryptocurrency market, which is clearly starting to gain popularity in 2021."

Tesla officially announced its $ 1.5 billion investment in BTC as part of its filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission on February 8. It is still unclear how many Bitcoins Tesla bought and at what price, as the company did not disclose this information in the notification.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has retrace 38% of the last wave down and is currently trading at the level of $50,028. There is a set of Pin Bar candlesticks at the recent sell-off bottom at the level of $44,936, so it is clear, that bulls are protecting the levels under $40k. Nevertheless, the next big resistance for Bitcoin is still seen at $50,000 and it must be violated to continue the bounce towards the level of $51,599 and $53,171. Please notice, that despite the bounce, the momentum is still weak and negative, so the bears are in control of the market for some time now.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $75,571
WR2 - $67,184
WR1 - $63,246

Weekly Pivot - $54,169
WS1 - $50,671
WS2 - $42,010
WS3 - $37,979


Trading Recommendations:
The bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $60,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $41,125 is clearly broken.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Tesla lost $ 15.2 billion due to Musk's investment in Bitcoin



Tesla's company shares declined by 8.6% on Monday. The result was an astounding $ 15.2 billion in losses. This is the biggest decline the company has recorded since last September, when the stock market lost a third of its value, causing Tesla to fall by 21.1%.

During the last check, all the shares of Tesla still remain in the "red zone", since the stock market bears continue to pull its shares down. It is assumed that this decline was partly caused by the billionaire's recent responses about the too high cost of Bitcoin and Ethereum. However, Musk's previous tweets about Bitcoin suggest that he will be in business and has everything under control. Thus, he is expected to continue to strengthen his commitment to Bitcoin despite the downward trend in the market.

At the time of publication, Musk has not yet made an official statement about the recent events. But when Peter Schiff, a gold supporter, hinted that Musk's decision to focus on Bitcoin was a poor investment choice, Musk responded with a dismissive emoji.

However, the recent drop in the price of Tesla shares cost Musk to lose his position as the richest man in the world and give the title to Jeff Bezos, who has held this position since 2018. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin rally means that changes in the market are inevitable and that Elon Musk could easily take that position again in an instant.

Satoshi Nakamoto can also undoubtedly claim the position of both billionaires if Bitcoin continues to gain momentum.

Bitcoin's price of about $ 50,000 puts Satoshi Nakamoto on the 27th place in the list of the richest people on the planet with an estimated fortune of $ 50 billion. Therefore if this price quadrupled, it will make the anonymous bitcoin creator the richest person in the world.




Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Who crashed bitcoin by $ 15 000? Janette Yellen or Elon Musk?



Despite the fact that the correction for bitcoin has been brewing for a long time, the question remains open as who was behind the last drop in the cryptocurrency by $ 15,000? Technical reasons have not gone away, but still we all remember that the cryptocurrency can pass $ 5-10 thousand per day on just one tweet of Elon Musk or just on the news of a major Bitcoin purchase. So maybe this time, it was all the fault of someone's tweets and comments? However, the search for these tweets and comments did not take long. Just yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen criticized bitcoin, which warned investors about the potential danger that the cryptocurrency carries. According to the Minister of Finance, bitcoin cannot be used as a medium of exchange everywhere. Yes, it wins over other payment methods in some types of transactions, but it also has a sufficient number of disadvantages. Yellen drew again the attention of the fact that in most cases, payments in bitcoins are made for illegal activities. She also believes that bitcoin is an extremely inefficient method of transactions, and the amount of electricity that is spent on its extraction and payment processing is amazing. In addition, do not forget that we are also talking about the environment. CO2 emissions into the atmosphere are gigantic, as miners consume a huge amount of electricity, which is produced in power plants by burning coal or other energy carriers. In addition, Yellen believes that bitcoin is an extremely speculative asset. She cautioned investors, saying that many can get losses by buying digital gold, as the asset is very volatile.

Also, the words of Elon Musk that bitcoin and ether are too expensive could cause the fall of the cue ball by $ 15,000. The head of SpaceX and Tesla just recently once again commented on the main cryptocurrencies and said that he considers their cost unjustifiably inflated. Thus, a certain part of investors could pay attention to these words and sell their bitcoins, fearing that the price of the token will not go up. However, Musk's words can hardly be interpreted with all seriousness, since just a couple of weeks ago, his Tesla bought bitcoins for $ 1.5 billion, not caring that the price for it is "non-market" and "inflated". As we have already said, in the coming days, we need to monitor any comments made by Musk and other high-ranking officials and large businessmen as they may have an impact on the course of the cue ball.




Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Bill Gates urges not to follow the example of Elon Musk and not to invest in Bitcoin



While something resembling a small panic has developed in the cryptocurrency market, many world-famous and respected people have again commented on their attitude toward "digital gold" and some even urged not to deal with it. Bill Gates, the former head of Microsoft and its co-founder, still believes that bitcoin does not have the necessary qualities to become a full-fledged means of payment. Gates continues to be one of the 10 richest people in the world, and his fortune, despite the huge sums that his foundation donates to various charities, continues to be about $100 billion. Thus, it can hardly be said that Gates does not understand all the specifics of cryptocurrencies and his opinion should not be trusted. A person who has made such money almost from scratch, and also created one of the most famous corporations in the world, can not be stupid. "I'm not very optimistic about bitcoin, and my thought is that if you have less money than Elon Musk, then you probably should be more careful," Gates said. According to Gates, all transactions should be reversible (that is, so that they can be canceled), and the cryptocurrency itself is transparent. Ergo, Bill Gates joins the category of people who urge not to deal with bitcoin or do it as carefully as possible.

The total capitalization of bitcoin during yesterday fell below $1 trillion and reached the 900 billion mark. According to the data from the Bybt service, over the past day, positions worth $2.38 billion were liquidated for bitcoin. It can be assumed that in the last two days, about $4-5 billion was withdrawn from bitcoin. So, now the main thing is to understand what it was: a banal correction (for a cue ball, 20% of the cost for two days is a banal correction) or the beginning of a repeat of the history of 2017? Back in 2017, bitcoin lost half of its value in a week, which was the beginning of a prolonged fall and a period of "low prices" that lasted three years. Bitcoin fell to the value of $3,000 per coin, losing a total of up to 85% of its own value. Now, the cryptocurrency has lost 20% in two days, but is currently recovering. From our point of view, the market is now very thin and the token can be thrown in any direction. If today and tomorrow does not follow a new collapse, then we can hope for a new round of upward movement. Also, social media posts and comments from people like Elon Musk will make a huge difference in the coming days.




Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

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Tesla shares fell down amid the fall of bitcoin



Bitcoin has adjusted down by almost $ 15,000 over the past two business days. As we expected, the correction ended near the Kijun-sen line of the Ichimoku indicator on the 24-hour timeframe. A rebound followed and now the number one cryptocurrency in the world is growing again and has already recovered some of the losses to $ 51,000 per coin. However, the collapse of bitcoin at the beginning of the trading week is still impressive. At the very least, the cryptocurrency has adjusted and can now resume its growth. From a technical point of view, bitcoin failed to overcome the Kijun-sen line, so the current downward movement is interpreted as a correction, and not as a downward trend. And Elon Musk can only sympathize with his bitcoin investment. Thanks to this drop in the "cue ball", not only did Elon Musk's fortune decrease, but Tesla shares also fell by a record 8.55% since September 2020. The markets now associate Tesla with increased risks since it invested 1.5 billion in bitcoins. Thus, in the event of a fall in the exchange rate of the "cue ball", it can now pull down the shares of Tesla. However, firstly, Elon Musk lost "only" $ 15 billion of his fortune, and secondly, bitcoin is growing again. This means that if the markets got rid of Tesla shares against the background of the fall of bitcoin, then today they should already start growing, as the bitcoin exchange rate is recovering. If the recovery of the share price does not happen, then the reasons do not lie in the cryptocurrency segment. In the meantime, Jeff Bezos, the head of Amazon, has taken first place in the ranking of the richest people in the world. His fortune now exceeds that of Elon Musk by $ 3 billion, although February 23 also ended in losses for him, although only $ 4 billion.

Thus, on Monday and Tuesday, traders could see firsthand how bitcoin is traded. They could see that the cryptocurrency can not only constantly grow, but also fall in a day or two by 15 thousand dollars, which is 20% of its value. They could see that companies that invested in bitcoin began to lose their value due to the sale of shares by their owners. The rest of this week also promises to be very interesting. Now, either bitcoin will resume its upward movement and, accordingly, go above the level of $ 58,500, or it will continue to correct, and then its rate may fall below the level of $ 45,000. And below this level, a panic may begin in the cryptocurrency market, which will lead to a large-scale reset of long positions and the collapse of the number one cryptocurrency, and at the same time the entire cryptocurrency segment. Thus, in the coming days, we are closely monitoring the behavior of the market.




Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021