Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin

Bitcoin plunged in the last hours after failing to stay near 58,367 new all-time high. Reaching 58,000 made some investors and traders mark the profit and step out. So, that is the reason why BTC/USD dropped in the short term.

The current retreat could be only another temporary correction before the price resumes its major uptrend. Technically and fundamentally, Bitcoin remains bullish despite any short-term correction.

It is trading lower at $54,495 but the uptrend is still safe as the price is located far above the uptrend line.


BTC/USD SHOWS EXHAUSTED BUYERS!


BTC/USD increased as expected till yesterday when the sellers have started to send the price lower. It seems that we have a strong resistance above the second warning line (WL2) and around 58,000 psychological level.

The rate has come back to retest the Pivot Point (53,891). For now, it has registered only a false breakdown with great separation. Technically, the upside bias remains intact as long as BTC/USD is trading above the black uptrend line.

The current retreat could help the traders and investors to buy bitcoin again. A false breakdown with great separation below the immediate downside obstacles (P, S1, Uptrend line) could bring a bullish momentum sooner than you think.


BITCOIN TIPS & FORECAST!
You could search for long opportunities as long as BTC/USD stays above the $50,000 psychological level. The price could come to pressure, retest, this critical downside obstacle, and the black uptrend line.

Failing to drop below the Pivot Point (53,891) could signal that bitcoin will edge higher soon. Also, jumping and stabilizing above the WL2 and beyond the 58,000 represents a bullish signal.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Forecast for Litecoin for February 22, 2021

1. Analysis of LTC/USDT volume from Binance cryptocurrency exchange

The analysis is based on the horizontal volumes data on daily charts from the Binance exchange. The analysis is carried out based on the footprint-profile theory. According to the theory, the direction of the horizontal level with the highest trade volume within a day can indicate the likely direction of the trend. The highest trade volume is the level with the largest number of transactions carried out. That is, it is the level of major market players. Accordingly, if the highest trade volume level goes up, it indicates an upward trend. Otherwise, if the highest trade volume level goes down, it indicates a downward trend. Chaotic movements signal that the market is trading flat.

20.02.21 – the highest horizontal volume level (POC – PointOfControl) = 228
21.02.21 – the highest horizontal volume level (POC – PointOfControl) = 225

The point of control has moved down.The price is below the POC. The market has possibly started correcting sideways. Therefore, one can open both long and short positions.


2. Analysis of long-term trend

A trend is your friend. Many traders know this saying but do not know how to use it. The answer is simple: to trade only in the direction of a trend. Thus, your trades will have more profit potential with less risk. According to the classic Dow theory, there are three main trends:

-long-term
-medium-term
-short-term

These are the trends you should analyze before entering the market. Now, we take a closer look at these trends.

The long-term trend is the daily trend. In this case, deals are made in the daily time frame and are held for several days. The analysis of the daily trend is made with the help of the 48-period exponential moving average (EMA(48)). If the daily candlestick closes above EMA(48), it will indicate the upward trend. Therefore, you should enter long. If the daily candlestick closes below EMA(48), then it is the downward trend and you should enter short.



The chart shows the upward trend. The price is above EMA(48). That is why you should consider buying the pair.


3. Analysis of medium-term trend

The medium-term trend is the trend on the 4-hour chart (H4). In this case, we will also turn to EMA(48). If the candlestick closes above EMA(48) on the 4-hour chart, it will indicate the upward trend. Thus, you should enter long. Otherwise, if the candlestick closes below EMA(48) on the H4 chart, it will indicate the downward trend. Consequently, you should enter short.



The price is in line with EMA(48). We have a sideways trend. Therefore, one can both open long and short positions.


4. Analysis of short-term trend

A short-term trend is the trend in the H1 time frame. Moreover, it can show an entry point into the market well. We will turn to EMA(48) again. If the candlestick closes above EMA(48) on the H1 chart, it will indicate the upward trend. Thus, you should enter long. Alternatively, if the candlestick closes below EMA(48), it will indicate the downward trend. Consequently, you should enter short.



The price is below EMA(48). We have a short-term downward trend. Thus, you can sell the pair. The long-term, the medium-term, and the short-term trends do not coincide.


5. Japanese candlestick analysis

A classic Japanese candlestick analysis is applied to the daily timeframe. In this particular analysis, we will also look at the daily candlestick.



Thus, we have a black downward daily candlestick. Its low is below the low of the previous candlestick. It is a hammer candlestick pattern heading upward. The price broke through the low of yestarday's candlestick. The sideways movement is highly likely.


6. Conclusion

Volume analysis – BUY SELL.
Long-term trend – BUY.
Medium-term trend – BUY SELL.
Short-term trend – SELL.
Japanese candlestick analysis – BUY SELL.

General conclusion: On February 22, 2021, one can both sell ang buy the pair.


7. Statistics

To analyze how effective this approach is, the data on completed transactions is tracked. The forecast is made for four instruments: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and BCH/USD. Trading account monitoring:



February 2021: +11.34%.

Statement:
A Stop Loss for new orders should be placed beyond the daily extreme points. You do not need a Take Profit because we will continue to move the Stop Loss above the extreme points of the upcoming sessions.

Since trading is carried out on daily charts, this recommendation is relevant throughout the day.

Trade with the trend and you will reap profits!



Maxim Petrov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Morning after all-time highs: cryptocurrency forecast for February 22, 2021

On Sunday, Bitcoin hit another all-time high, reaching $58,340 apiece. Ethereum followed it by updating its historical values, reaching $2,039 per ether. And today, we are witnessing a natural downward correction, the boundaries of which, as well as the further prospects of the main coins, will be determined by technical analysis.

Bitcoin rose, breaking the 100 Fibo Expansion level - this is the 55830.19 mark. But during the correction, it tries to return under this horizontal. It is not yet clear whether this breakout of the level will be true, or the quotes will still return to the range between the 100-161.8 levels of the Fibonacci extension.

So far, with such a technical picture, BTC/USD has the potential to move south as part of a downward correction to the 61.8 Fibo Expansion level. The target is to the south, near the 51,936.02 mark. If Bitcoin manages to stay above $55,830 per coin, there is a chance to return to the highs set on Sunday.



Bitcoin Cash, following the main cryptocurrency, declines after confirming both boundaries of the technical range 667.95 - 750.13. If the downward correction in the market continues, BCH/USD quotes are likely to break through the support at 667.95. And its confirmation in the form of resistance (ideally) will signal a further decline towards the support level of 611.50. Alternative scenario: recovery of the pair in the sideways 667.95 - 750.13, will be possible if the level of 667.95 manages to resist.



Among all cryptocurrencies this morning, Ripple showed the greatest growth, which, however, was lost in the next few hours. But in recent days, both borders of a wide technical range between the support level of 0.4769 (blue lower segment) and resistance 0.6387 (blue upper dotted line) have been confirmed. Now, XRP/USD has room to move south towards the 0.6737 level, and the further dynamics of the pair will depend on whether this horizontal can withstand.



Ethereum is clearly working out the Fibo Expansion levels. During the update of the all-time high on the weekend, the 100 Fibonacci extension level was reached. Now, during the downward correction, ETH/USD has broken through the level of 61.8 and found support at the local horizontal at 1823.44. If this level is not maintained and the decline in quotes continues, the next horizontal line 1697.27 should be considered as a target to the south.



Litecoin also turned down after the quotes failed to stay above the level of 239.79. In the four-hour timeframe, some semblance of a "head and shoulders" reversal pattern was formed, although the upward trend that preceded it can hardly be called technical. Therefore, LTC/USD has the potential to decline to the level of 205, 25. And the subsequent decline can be discussed after the breakdown of this horizontal and consolidation under it.






Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Patrick Hughes put his NYC bars for sale



Patrick Hughes put up his two side-by-side bars in Manhattan for sale.

The asking price is 25 bitcoins, or about $ 1.4 million. It will also accept 800 Ethereum tokens, which is around $ 1.6 million.

"The point of selling with bitcoin is to attract a different type of buyer, get some publicity and try to legitimize the currency a little," Hughes said. He added that he could accept US dollars as payment, but he prefers bitcoins.

To date, the rate of Bitcoin is increasing sharply. In February alone, it rose by 60% and hit a new all-time high above $ 55,000. This gave the cryptocurrency a market value of over $ 1 trillion.

And because of this, Citigroup predicts Bitcoin could reach $ 318,000 by the end of 2021.

The big jump came from the moment Tesla announced it had invested $ 1.5 billion in BTC, which is also generating interest from financial institutions. Morgan Stanley also said its investment fund is considering a large Bitcoin purchase.

"I might have to lower the price a little," Hughes joked. "Maybe instead of 25 bitcoins, I will sell them for 10 bitcoins? I don't know. Let's just see".

Hughes said there had been no offers yet to buy the bars, but nevertheless he has contributed to the growth of the cryptocurrency by announcing the sale of his bars back in January, when the price of Bitcoin was only $ 30,000.

Hughes is also a cryptocurrency investor. Early on, he sold all of his assets and bought bitcoin even before the cryptocurrency hit $ 51,000. He also bought a rival cryptocurrency, Ethereum.

"Cryptocurrency is the future. And I don't want to hold onto US dollars for many years when inflation depreciates money again," Hughes said.

To add to that, according to Hughes, he has been in the restaurant business for 30 years. He claims that he is "tired" now and that it is time to move on.

If Hughes successfully sold his bars, he could go down in history as the first person to sell his restaurant in crypto in the United States.

"I would like to leave this business at the top of my game and make a big splash, go down a bit in history and just become famous. So I would like to sell it for bitcoin, " he said. "I think that would be great."




Andrey Shevchenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ethereum fully broke through last week's target level

Ethereum's movement last Friday allowed the formation of a local accumulation zone. The prices have returned to the break-even zone of 1870-1847, which was found a week earlier.

On the other hand, the direction of the upward impulse will be decided in the upcoming days. It is worth noting the zone of the market maker, which developed above the level of 1974.00, where limit sell orders persists. A movement to this level will allow us to consider sales. In this case, the target level will be set at 1800.00 in the near future.



In fact, trading within the current accumulation zone involves searching for entry points at the limits of the range and partially or completely fixing on opposite borders. It should be noted that the formation of a reversal pattern in the higher time frames will demand the closure of this week's trading below the opening level of the previous one. If so, this will trigger a compensation mechanism and the saturation of limit sell orders will hinder the price to move up in the medium term.





Samanta Kruder
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Will Bitcoin stay above $55,000?

Today, Bitcoin tested the 55000 level, which was recently the target. Fixation above this mark occurs on the third day. Holding above this psychological level will pave the way for the next big target of $60,000. As of today, there is no increase in the activity of sellers, which speaks in favor of updating the monthly maximum in the near future.



Trading in the direction of the bullish momentum remains a priority, ergo, purchases from the zone of limit orders 55470-54265 are breakeven within the framework of the weekly movement. It will take two weeks or more to form a reversal pattern, which will allow you to exit purchases with minimal losses in the event of a sharp change in market direction.

The potential to work towards an already established trend is always higher. This makes it possible to speak about the update of the monthly maximum with 80% probability.




Samanta Kruder
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for February 22, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
There are three key reasons for the surge in the value of Ether: the dynamic growth of the DeFi sector, the hype around ETH after the start of listing of CME futures, and the declining amount of BTC and ETH on exchanges.

Ether hit $ 2,000 for the first time following the launch of ETH futures contracts on CME earlier this month. These investment instruments are targeted mainly at institutional investors.

Before the aforementioned premiere, the market was convinced that listing the CME contracts would cause a significant drop in the ETH price. The start of CME Bitcoin futures quotations in 2017 coincided, at that time, with the local BTC peak.

However, ETH has grown steadily since then, even exceeding $ 000. The new milestone indicates that there is now significant institutional hype surrounding ETH, as evidenced by the resumption of ETH purchases by Greyscale's Ethereum Trust.

According to data from Dappradar.com, the total locked value (TVL) of the DeFi market is almost $ 50 billion. The term TVL is used to measure the amount of capital that is locked in with any DeFi protocol. For example, if $ 2 billion is used in the loan protocol, this would mean that the TVL protocol would be $ 2 billion.

ETH benefits directly from the high value of TVL in the DeFi market as the cryptocurrency is used as a means of paying transaction fees on the Ethereum blockchain network. The greater the demand for DeFi protocols and services, the greater the benefits of ETH in the market.

Meanwhile, bitcoin's price shows no signs of slowing down. It surpassed the $ 2,000 mark and holds it as a solid support level. One of the reasons for this is the declining amount of BTC as well as ETH available on exchanges which reduces selling pressure.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has made a new all time high at the level of $2,035 over the weekend. The rally had ended with a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern after the level of $2,021 was hit (161% Fibonacci extension of the last wave up), so the market is now in the corrective cycle. The recent low was made at the level of $1,826 already, so please keep an eye on the technical support at the level of $1,833. Any candle close below this level on the H4 time frame chart or higher would suggest the further correction towards the level of $1,723 or below. The momentum indicator barely hoovers around the neutral level of fifty already.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $2,476
WR2 - $2,254
WR1 - $2,101

Weekly Pivot - $1,876
WS1 - $1,724
WS2 - $1,492
WS3 - $1,337


Trading Recommendations:
The up trend on the Ethereum continues and the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $2,100, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. Please notice, the up trend starting to go vertical, so the volatility will be higher than average. The bullish scenario is valid as long as the level of $1,412 is broken.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for February 22, 2021

Crypto Industry News:

When Bitcoin peaked at $ 57,634, it surpassed the price of $ 57,336 calculated approximately per kilogram of gold. At the time of writing this publication, the price of gold relative to bitcoin is at its lowest level ever. At the same time, the price of bitcoin is at its highest ever.

The US dollar plunged sharply last summer as a result of quantitative easing (QE). The US Federal Reserve quickly "reprinted" an unprecedented amount of money. While government statistics showed that the inflation rate was just 1%, the cost of living and the prices of goods and services soared in the wake of the pandemic.

It was around this time that both gold and bitcoin rose as well. On July 1, a kilogram of gold cost $ 57,093. By August 4, it was $ 65,477. During the same period, bitcoin's price soared from $ 9,145 to a high of $ 12,034 (as of August 2, 2020). Faced with problems with the world's most important reserve currency, investors were drawn to both gold and bitcoin.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has made a new all time high at the level of $58,258. Nevertheless, at the H4 time frame chart there is a Shooting Star candlestick pattern visible at the end of this rally, so some kind of a pull-back or correction should be expected. Please keep an eye on the level of $54,909, which is the key short-term technical support for the price. The next technical support is located at the level of $52,505. Any violation of the level of $51,768 will mean the price overbalance is done and market can start a new cycle down.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $75,571
WR2 - $67,184
WR1 - $63,246

Weekly Pivot - $54,169
WS1 - $50,671
WS2 - $42,010
WS3 - $37,979


Trading Recommendations:
The bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $60,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $41,125 is clearly broken.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical analysis of Ripple for February 22, 2021



A week ago we called for a short-term correction close to 0.4720 before renewed upside pressure. Last week, Ripple dipped to an intra-day low of 0.4740. Now Ripple is ready to break the key resistance level near 0.7000. A break of this level may active the bottom-formation, that has been building since May 2018. A break above key-resistance at 0.7000 will call for a rally to a minimum of 1.1800 and likely call for much higher levels with the possibility to test the former peak at 2.7500.

Support is seen in the 0.4720 - 0.4740 area.


Trading recommendation:
It is recommended to open long positions if it breaks above 0.6100 or more conservatively above 0.7000 and place your stop at 0.4700.




Torben Melsted
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

J.P.Morgan analysts consider bitcoin as the worst investment diversification asset



The bitcoin exchange rate reached the value of $58,000 per coin this weekend, and this time without the outright help of Elon Musk or other investment whales. Thus, the exclusively speculative growth of the cryptocurrency, as well as the entire cryptocurrency market, continues. More and more large and small traders are joining the trend, as they also want to make money on the second major growth of bitcoin. The figure of $100,000 per coin, which would have seemed fantastic a couple of months ago, now looks absolutely real, considering that bitcoin is becoming more expensive almost every day, adding several thousand dollars. Digital assets are still gaining popularity, but this popularity is again "hype." If bitcoin collapses to $5,000 per coin tomorrow, it is unlikely that all the media and news agencies will review its next fall every day and quote Elon Musk's posts on Twitter.

Meanwhile, largest investment bank J.P.Morgan's analysts said that they believe bitcoin is the worst tool to protect against falling stock prices. According to the bank, the current value of the cryptocurrency significantly exceeds its fair value. Experts believe that large investments in bitcoin increase its correlation with cyclical assets, which reduces its attractiveness as a means of diversification. A characteristic feature of "cyclical assets" is that they are actively invested in when the economy is doing well, but when problems arise, they are the first to get rid of. No one calls Bitcoin a "cyclical asset." It is clearly not bought in large quantities during the prosperity of the world economy. However, the very definition of "cyclicity" is the best fit for the cue ball. As soon as the big players start to get rid of the cue ball (due to its instability and lack of confirmation, this will happen sooner or later), other investors and traders will also start selling it. J.P.Morgan analysts also said that they do not consider bitcoin as "digital gold." In order for the capitalization of bitcoin to match the total investment in gold by the private sector, its price must rise to at least $146,000 per coin.

Thus, our point of view remains unchanged. Like other cryptocurrencies, bitcoin remains an excellent tool for earning money, and the whole world understands this now. While the cryptocurrency market is growing, this opportunity should be used to make a profit. The main thing that should not be forgotten in cryptocurrency trading is to always set a Stop Loss. No one knows when the "sharks" will start getting rid of bitcoin, so in order to avoid serious losses, you should always be insured with restrictive orders. In the meantime, the bitcoin exchange rate is targeted at $60,000 per coin, and at $100,000 in the future.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021