Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Trading plan for Bitcoin for February 03, 2021



Technical outlook:

Bitcoin has managed to extend its pullback towards $36,100/300 mark and might be preparing to turn lower again. The crypto is seen to be trading around $36,150 levels at this point in writing and bears might be inclined to push towards $29,000 levels or continue consolidating in a range for few more trading sessions.

Bitcoin might have carved a meaningful top around $42,000 levels and since then has been consolidating within a potential contracting triangle. Immediate resistance is at $40,000, followed by $42,000 mark, while support is seen around $29,400 levels respectively. A break below $29,400 will confirm a bearish breakout and that Bitcoin should push lower towards $18,000 levels, which is fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the entire rally between $3,850 and $42000 respectively.

Also note that the trend line support is passing through $18,000-$19,000 range, which could provide enough support for a bullish turn. Only a consistent break below the trend line would indicate a major trend reversal ahead and the crypto might witness much lower levels, going forward.


Trading plan:

Remain short, stop @42,000, target @ 18,000


Good luck!




Oscar Ton
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin continues to rise in price

As expected, Bitcoin continued to rise in price, breaking the first local target which is $ 35,860.55.

It was the level of $ 34,708.27 who held out as support. And now, the target is $ 37,351.03, which is what BTC reached last week, when Elon Musk provoked the market. This area is notable for the fact that a breakout could occur somewhere, but there is also a chance that price will turn down here and go back to its price range earlier.

The behavior of Bitcoin in the triangle will provide a clearer outlook for the medium-term. In particular, a break above will enable the quotes to reach all-time highs in BTC / USD.





Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin surpasses all expectations: cryptocurrency jumps to $2,000 per day

The year 2021 marked the beginning of bitcoin's rapid ascent to the top of the financial Olympus. Having reached a relative low of $20,000, the financial asset began a rapid rise. We have already talked about the development of the stablecoin supply coefficient, which has already indicated the rapid growth of the first cryptocurrency. February should be the starting point for the rising price of the asset.

However, Bitcoin's performance exceeds even the wildest expectations. As of today, February 3, the price of bitcoin per day increased by $2,000, to $36,5000. Despite the increased demand for stablecoins, and, accordingly, for cryptocurrencies in general, no one expected such a sharp rise in bitcoin.

The sharp "boom" became the reason for rethinking the growth opportunities for the first cryptocurrency. Indeed, in early January, the digital asset overcame the historical barrier and set a new one - at around $42,000. And given the growing demand and the actively developing cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin will soon update its historical record.



Recall that the current wave of strengthening of the digital resource has been going on since mid-December with slight weakening. At the same time, the cryptocurrency has not yet reached its peak indicators. Scott Minerd, the CIO at Guggenheim Partners, believes such an increase in the price of bitcoin is quite logical and suggests that the price of the first cryptocurrency may reach $400,000-600,000 in the foreseeable future.

This forecast is quite justified, given the new jump in cryptocurrency prices and the general growth of the digital asset market. Do not forget about the constantly increasing flow of investments in cryptocurrencies, which also actively affects the development of the market and the increase in the market for electronic assets.



Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ethereum has updated its all-time highs

Ethereum has gained more than 12% yesterday, and its seven-day growth reached almost 21%. At the same time, it is important to note that ETH/USD broke through its all-time highs.

And after breaking the upper border (1290.82 - 1436.48) of the sideways movement, the price passed almost the amplitude of this range.

Now, the questions arise: How long will ETH/USD continue to grow? When will the correction start, and what are the technical guidelines for this?

The reason lies in the fact that when historical highs are broken, it is easy for major market players to push the price further, since there is no "opposition" in the form of limit orders. In theory, the sky's the only limit.

First, let's attempt to approximately outline the targets for XRP/USD using the Fibonacci extension tool. If we set it at the points 907.62 - 1438.17 - 1037.22, we get the 100th mark at around 1566.88, which has already been reached. Therefore, there is a possibility that the correction will begin from the current values.

If you further believe the expansion, the breakdown of the level of 1566.88 will allow quotes to move to the next target, that is, to the level of 161.8. On ETH/USD pair, this is the price level of 1890.71.



So far, this is just speculation. Nevertheless, it is not recommended to go to the purchase from the current values. There is also a reason to assume that a downward correction is approaching even without the Fibonacci extension. There will be a huge stop loss, which will most likely be gotten.

Therefore, we will continue to observe how the situation will unfold.



Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 03 February 2021

Crypto Industry News:

The second largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization not only hit an all-time record last month, but also recorded a number of other important milestones.

In terms of prices, investors saw their highest monthly close in history as the coin closed the month at $ 1,313, breaking the previous record set in the summer of 2019 and also confirming the 20-month moving average above the 50-month average. From the point of view of the price outlook, this indicator definitely has a bullish sentiment.

Ethereum entered the month of February with a market capitalization of more than $ 151 billion, which is just under 15% of the value of all cryptocurrencies. It also means that the two biggest cryptocurrencies, bitcoin and ethereum, have a combined dominance of 75%, leaving the rest of the stake far behind.

As Money Movers data shows, ethereum outperformed bitcoin in daily transfer value, reaching $ 19.1 billion per day - compared to $ 9.78 billion in Bitcoin.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has made a new all time high at the level of $1,575 (at the time of writing the article), so the breakout from the triangle pattern was good. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $1,600. The key technical support is located at the level of $1,414 (2017 high). The intraday support is located at $1,500. The long term up trend is still intact and there is no indication of trend reversal or termination.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $1,679
WR2 - $1,589
WR1 - $1,419

Weekly Pivot - $1,318
WS1 - $1,150
WS2 - $1,040
WS3 - $882


Trading Recommendations:
The up trend on the Ethereum continues and the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $1,500, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. Please notice, the up trend starting to go vertical, so the volatility will be higher than average. The bullish scenario is valid as long as the level of $830 is broken.






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

The second wave is on the way: analysts are confident that the price of bitcoin will soon rise

The price quotes for the main cryptocurrency went up at the beginning of 2021, but fell below the level of 20 thousand dollars by the end of January. After a short break, analysts predict another "boom" in bitcoin prices.

Furthermore, the experts have a serious argument that points to the rapid growth of the cryptocurrency by this time. The specialists of the company Glassnode are sure that in February the price of bitcoin will increase due to the increasing purchasing power of stable coins. Thus, a special algorithm was developed to determine this dynamics.

The research and operation of the algorithm is based on the stable coin supply coefficient. After conducting a simple analysis of the market value of bitcoins and all stable coins, experts came to the conclusion that this coefficient is low. This means that one stable coin can buy more bitcoins, which will definitely increase the demand for the asset.



A similar situation with the coefficient occurs due to the total turnover of other cryptocurrencies, as well as the price of bitcoin. Based on this, it is fair to note that the dynamics of increasing demand will concern not only the first cryptocurrency, but also other digital money. This will mainly cause an increase in the price of electronic assets.

In the dry balance, we have a low ratio showing the increasing ability to invest in bitcoin and other digital assets. It is worth noting that the price of bitcoin is already almost $ 35 thousand, after a significant decline in late January when the cryptocurrency was quoted at $ 25 thousand.




Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

LTC/USD holds support and challenges major resistance

LTC/USD fell as low as $125 and did not break the important support of $118.50. Price has reversed and has broken key trend line resistance while now it challenges recent highs at $145. If bulls manage to recapture $145 we could see $160-65 next.



Red line -resistance

Green rectangle- support

Blue rectangle - resistance

LTC/USD is challenging the horizontal resistance at $145. With a lower high in place at $125, a break above $145 would be a bullish signal. Price has also broken above the red trend line resistance and all signs point to a move higher. Only a close below $131 would destroy bull's chances.




Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical targets for Ripple. XPR Pump does not count.

Ripple has become part of a scandal with a pump-and-dump scheme, Reddit traders, and the WallStreetBets forum. As it turned out, retail investors are able to boost a poorly capitalized asset, but they clearly do not have the resource to maintain its growth.

It won't be surprising if US regulators would like to take a closer look at this story. Market manipulation is illegal in the United States.

Meanwhile, some analysts assume that retail investors may pose a risk to the system, especially after such an alarming week when major hedge funds suffered huge losses from the army of WallStreetBets. Some of them even recalled the notoriously famous American hedge fund LTCM. It collapsed in 1998 and almost ruined the global financial system.

Nevertheless, retail traders could not keep the floated rate of Ripple, which was to be proved. Let's go back to the technical analysis and determine the future prospects for XRP/USD.

Let's take a look at the weekly chart to see a bigger picture. Now the price is approaching the mirror level 0.3512 from top (green horizontal line). The further direction of XRP/USD will depend on whether this level proves to be strong support.

If the price founds support at 0.3512 and rebounds to the upside, the Ripple may resume its growth. A breakout of this horizontal line will pave the way for XRP/USD to downward targets at the levels of 0.2867 and 0.2239.



On the four-hour chart, we see that the strong mirror level of 0.3512 has already been confirmed by an upside rebound. So, there is technical potential for XRP/USD to rise towards the nearest resistance of 0.4348.





Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Forecast for Ethereum on February 2, 2021 – BUY



1. Analysis of bitcoin futures volumes from the Chicago Futures Exchange (CME).

Since bitcoin is the flagship of the cryptocurrency market, we will first analyze its movement. The analysis uses data on horizontal volumes from the Chicago Futures Exchange on daily charts. The analysis is based on the "Footprint Profile" theory, in which the movement of the maximum volume level for the day can indicate the likely direction of the trend. The maximum volume level is the level at which the maximum number of transactions was made, that is, the level of a large player. Accordingly, the displacement of the maximum amount of levels up indicates an upward trend. Moving the maximum volume level down indicates a downward trend. The chaotic movement of the maximum volume levels indicates a flat in the market.

29.01.21 – Maximum horizontal volume level (POC - Point Of Control) - 33990
01.02.21 – Maximum horizontal volume level (POC - Point Of Control) - 33975

POC almost remained in place, however, the reaction of the price after the infusion of this volume is upward. There is a possibility of an upward movement.


2. Analysis of the long-term trend.
A trend is a trader's friend. Many traders know this saying, but do not know how to use it. The answer is simple: trade only in the direction of the trend. This way your trades will have more profit potential with less risk. According to the classical Dow theory, there are three main trends:

-long-term;
-medium-term;
-short-term.

It is all these trends that need to be analyzed before opening any transaction. In this analysis, we will do this.

The long-term trend in this analysis is the daily trend. Trades will be made on a daily timeframe and held for several days. The daily trend is analyzed using the EMA (48), an exponential moving average with a period of 48.

If the daily candle closes above the EMA (48), then the trend is upward and you should buy. If the daily candle closes below the EMA(48), it means that the trend is down and you should sell.

The chart clearly shows an upward trend, so in this situation, you should only consider purchases.


3. Analysis of the medium-term trend.

In this analysis, the medium-term trend will be the trend on the 4-hour chart (H4). The EMA (48), an exponential moving average with a period of 48, will also be used for the analysis.

If the H4 candle closed above the EMA (48), then the trend is upward and you should buy. If the H4 candle closed below the EMA (48), then the trend is downward and you should sell.

Several H4 candles closed above the EMA (48) and are holding higher. So, the medium-term trend is upward and coincides with the long-term trend, you should buy.


4. Short-term trend analysis.

The short-term trend, which can well show the entry point to the market, will be considered a trend on the H1 timeframe. The EMA (48), an exponential moving average with a period of 48, will help us.

If the H1 candle closed above the EMA (48), then the trend is upward and you should buy. If the H1 candle closed below the EMA (48), then the trend is downward and you should sell.

Several H1 candles closed behind the EMA (48). Strong upward trend; long - term, medium-term and short-term trends are the same, you should buy.


5. Japanese candle analysis.

The classic Japanese candlestick analysis is used for the daily timeframe. In this analysis, we will also analyze the daily candle.



Closing the daily candle up, the candle is white. The lower extremum fell below the previous candle. The candle configuration is similar to Harami. However, yesterday's candle is too big. But this candle configuration is a reversal, probably an upward movement, so you should buy.


6. Conclusions.

Volumetric analysis of bitcoin: POC is in place, the price reaction is up - buy.
Long-term trend: up - buy.
Medium-term trend: up - buy.
Short-term trend: up - buy.
Japanese candlestick analysis - buy.
General conclusion: 02.02.21 - it is preferable to buy.


7. Statistics.

To analyze the effectiveness of this approach, it is necessary to keep statistics on completed transactions.

02.02.21 Ethereum BUY: 1441; SL: 1257; Risk per transaction: 1% of the deposit.

The stop loss is located behind the daily extreme.

Since trading is conducted on daily charts, this recommendation is relevant throughout the day.



Maxim Petrov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Forecast for Bitcoin on February 2, 2021 – BUY



1. Analysis of bitcoin futures volumes from the Chicago Futures Exchange (CME).

The analysis uses data on horizontal volumes from the Chicago Futures Exchange on daily charts. The analysis is based on the "Footprint Profile" theory, in which the movement of the maximum volume level for the day can indicate the likely direction of the trend. The maximum volume level is the level at which the maximum number of transactions was made, that is, the level of a large player. Accordingly, the displacement of the maximum amount of levels up indicates an upward trend. Moving the maximum volume level down indicates a downward trend. The chaotic movement of the maximum volume levels indicates a flat in the market.

29.01.21 – Maximum horizontal volume Level (POC - Point Of Control) - 33990
02.01.21 – Maximum horizontal Volume Level (ROS-Point Of Control) - 33975

POC almost remained in place, however, the reaction of the price after the infusion of this volume is upward. There is a possibility of an upward movement.


2. Analysis of the long-term trend.

A trend is a trader's friend. Many traders know this saying, however, they do not know how to use it. The answer is simple: trade only in the direction of the trend, thus, your trades will have more profit potential with less risk. According to the classical Dow theory, there are three main trends:

-long-term;
-medium-term;
-short-term.

It is all these trends that need to be analyzed before opening any transaction. In this analysis, we will do this.

The long-term trend in this analysis is the daily trend. Trades will be made on a daily timeframe and held for several days. The daily trend is analyzed using the EMA (48), an exponential moving average with a period of 48.

If the daily candle closes above the EMA (48), it means that we are facing an upward trend and should buy. If the daily candle closes below the EMA(48), it means that the trend is downward and should be sold.



The bitcoin chart clearly shows an upward trend, so in this situation, you should only consider purchases.


3. Analysis of the medium-term trend.

In this analysis, the medium-term trend will be the trend on the 4-hour chart (H4). The EMA (48), an exponential moving average with a period of 48, will also be used for the analysis.

If the H4 candle closes above the EMA (48), it means that the trend is upward and you should buy. If the H4 candle closes below the EMA (48), it means that the trend is downward and should be sold.



Several H4 candles closed above the EMA (48) and are holding higher. This means that the medium-term trend is upward and coincides with the long-term trend, thus, you should buy.


4. Short-term trend analysis.

The short-term trend, which can well show the entry point to the market, will be considered a trend on the H1 timeframe. The EMA (48), an exponential moving average with a period of 48, will help us.

If the H1 candle closes above the EMA(48), it means that the trend is upward and you should buy. If the H1 candle closes below the EMA(48), it means that the trend is downward and should be sold.

Several H1 candles closed behind the EMA (48). Strong upward trend; long-term, medium-term and short-term trends are the same, you should buy.


5. Japanese candle analysis.

The classic Japanese candlestick analysis is used for the daily timeframe. In this analysis, we will also analyze the daily candle.



Closing the daily candle up, the candle is white. The extremes remained inside the previous candle. The candle configuration is similar to Harami. However, yesterday's candle is too big. But this candle configuration is a reversal, probably an upward movement, so you should buy.


6. Conclusions.

Volume analysis: POC is in place, price reaction is up - buy.
Long-term trend: up - buy.
Medium-term trend: up - buy.
Short-term trend: up - buy.
Japanese candlestick analysis - buy.
General conclusion: 02.02.21 - it is preferable to buy.


7. Statistics.

To analyze the effectiveness of this approach, it is necessary to keep statistics on completed transactions.

02.02.21 Bitcoin BUY: 34830; SL: 31945; Risk per transaction: 1% of the deposit.

The stop loss is located behind the daily extreme.

Since trading is conducted on daily charts, this recommendation is relevant throughout the day.



Maxim Petrov
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021