Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 23 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) arrested power plant operators for mining cryptocurrency at the nuclear power plant facility in Juzhnoukrainsk.

The UNIAN English-language Ukrainian information site reported the details of the arrest. According to this article, cryptocurrency miners threatened the security of the nuclear facility through the internet connection of their mining installation - apparently leaked classified information about the power plant security system. SBU detectives obtained a search warrant and conducted an investigation. They found unauthorized computer equipment and seized a converter, fiber optic cable and partial network cable.

A similar situation occurred in February 2018, when many engineers from the Russian Federal Nuclear Center were arrested for trying to extract Bitcoins using one of the largest supercomputers in the country.

According to reports, the computer was able to perform 1000 trillion calculations per second and is intentionally disconnected from the Internet for security reasons.


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair has tested the short-term trendline resistance from below, around the level of $196.76. So far the test was a failure as the higher prices were neglected and the price got back to the middle of the range.. The next technical support is located at the level of $178.81 and might be tested soon as there are no signs of increased bullish activity. The nearest technical resistance is now located at the level of $196.76, just below the 38% Fibonacci retracement at $197.90.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $257.46
WR2 - $236.43
WR1 - $213.67

Weekly Pivot - $193.41
WS1 - $171.74
WS2 - $150.23
WS3 - $128.88


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 23 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The United States Treasury Department has added many cryptocurrency addresses to its list of Specially Marked Citizens (SDNs) in accordance with the Foreign Narcotics Kingpin Designation Act. These addresses and their associated persons were considered to be associated with foreign drug operators.

The Ministry of the Treasury updated its SDN list on August 21. The three alleged drug traffickers associated with crypto addresses are Chinese citizens Xiaobing Yan, Fujing Zheng and Guanghua Zheng. All three people have Bitcoin-related addresses listed on the SDN list, and Guanghua Zheng has an additional Litecoin address.

As explained in the White House press release, the bill outlined above aims to ban trade and transactions between drug dealers and US entities - namely companies and individuals. Under the Act, government departments coordinate the investigation into foreign drug dealers. They are then mentioned on the list, which is presented to the president. This then determines whether it is appropriate to impose sanctions by the US.

US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin believes Bitcoin is susceptible to money laundering. Mnuchin said he intends to closely monitor Bitcoin and believes that billions of dollars in cryptocurrencies are being used for illegal purposes.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair has bounced from the lower channel boundary around the level of $9,700, but is still trading inside of the narrow range and below the technical resistance at the level of $10,166. The nearest technical support is seen at the levels of $9,704 and $9,676. Still, the larger timeframe trend remains up, but to regain control over the market, the bulls have to break through the 50% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $10,840.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $13,461
WR2 - $12,432
WR1 - $11,161

Weekly Pivot - $10,133
WS1 - $9,200
WS2 - $8,268
WS3 - $7,027


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,049 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

BTC. End of the upward correction
22 August 2019

BTC has been trading sideways at the price of $10.000 in past few hours. There is potential for more downside and potential new wave down cause of the underlying down-trend.


Important levels to watch:

Resistance levels:
$10,000
$10,250

Support levels and downward targets
$9,722
$9,137

Based on the hourly time-frame, I found potential end of the upward correction ABC and potential for more downside. I found that BTC is trading inside of the Pitchfork down channel (yellow lines) and that there is chance for potential test of $9.722 (yellow rectangle) and $9,137. Additionally, the Stochastic oscillator is showing the overbought condition and potential rotation back, which is another great confirmation for downside. As long as the BTC is trading below the $10,700, watch for selling opportunities.




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

BTC. End of the upward correction
22 August 2019

BTC has been trading sideways at the price of $10.000 in past few hours. There is potential for more downside and potential new wave down cause of the underlying down-trend.


Important levels to watch:

Resistance levels:
$10,000
$10,250

Support levels and downward targets
$9,722
$9,137

Based on the hourly time-frame, I found potential end of the upward correction ABC and potential for more downside. I found that BTC is trading inside of the Pitchfork down channel (yellow lines) and that there is chance for potential test of $9.722 (yellow rectangle) and $9,137. Additionally, the Stochastic oscillator is showing the overbought condition and potential rotation back, which is another great confirmation for downside. As long as the BTC is trading below the $10,700, watch for selling opportunities.




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Forecast for Bitcoin and US dollar on August 22nd. Thanks to the "halving", Bitcoin can rise in price up to $50,000 in 2020

Bitcoin – 4H.


As I already said, the value of Bitcoin in most cases is determined by the number of one-day investors in the crypto market. If there is a wave of bitcoin purchases, the influx of new investors who want to get a "quick profit" supports demand and value growth. There are no other cue ball growth factors now. Even the aggravation of the trade conflict between China and America is not a sufficient reason for a sharp rise of BTC, although many investors are trying to go into safe assets. However, bitcoin is quite difficult to attribute to them, and in most cases, investors still prefer gold, franc or yen. At the moment, bitcoin is getting cheaper again, but the bears failed to close under the Fibo level of 76.4% ($9782).

An important issue that is now on the agenda is the so-called "halving", which will be the system in 2020. "Halving" is a reduction in the remuneration of miners for the mined block. It is logical to assume that the cost of the number one cryptocurrency will grow, however, from my point of view, not 2-5 times. The rise in price will be possible, but not as strong as many world experts in the cryptocurrency segment predict. Called numbers from $50,000 to $60,000.

The information background as such is currently missing. There are reports from China about the death of a large mining farm due to flooding. There are discussions of crypto traders regarding the possible ban of cryptocurrencies by the US authorities, of course, not in the short term. But all this has little effect on the movement of bitcoin.

The retreat of the "cue" quotes from the correction level of 76.4% will allow us to count on some growth in the direction of the Fibo levels of 61.8% ($10251) and 50.0% ($10642). Closing the BTC rate under the level of 76.4% will increase the chances of a further fall in the direction of the next correction level of 100.0% ($9022).

The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of July 17, 2019, and August 6, 2019.


Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
Bitcoin fell to the Fibo level of 76.4% ($9782). Thus, I recommend selling the cryptocurrency with the target of $9022, with the stop-loss order above the level of 38.2%, if there is a close below the level of $9558.

I recommend buying bitcoin with a target of $10251, and with a stop-loss level of $9782, if a rebound from the correction level of 76.4% is performed.




Performed by Samir Klishi
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 22 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
Stablecoin operator Tether plans to release stablecoin supported by a Chinese yuan, according to local industry media.

Bitfinex shareholder Zhao Dong informed the market that Tether - the operator behind the leading USDT stablecoin - plans to release a new stablecoin in the near future. He would be supported by a Chinese yuan kept on foreign accounts under the name CNHT.

Zhao also reportedly said his digital asset management platform, RenrenBit, would be the first to invest in the project. He also pointed out that Tether and Bitfinex cryptocurrency exchange are interrelated and that they have the same management team.

The relationship between Bitfinex and Tether sparked suspicion after an attorney general's office in New York filed a complaint against iFinex, Bitfinex and Tether in April. Prosecutors said companies deceived New York investors by concealing a $ 850 million loss on the Bitfinex trading platform.

Bitfinex and Tether responded to the recent ruling of Judge Joel Cohen in a case pending against companies, maintaining that the allegations are unfounded.


Technical Market Overview:
The bears at the ETH/USD market have pushed the prices lower towards the level of technical support at $183.00 as the price has fallen out of the channel and is trading around the level of $183.00. The next technical support is located at the level of $176.99 and might be tested soon as there are no signs of increased bullish activity. The nearest technical resistance is now located at the level of $190.94.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $257.46
WR2 - $236.43
WR1 - $213.67

Weekly Pivot - $193.41
WS1 - $171.74
WS2 - $150.23
WS3 - $128.88


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.





Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 22 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The Central Bank of India received an order from the Supreme Court of the country in relation to his proceeding regarding a ban on conducting activities related to cryptocurrencies and ordered him to consider complaints.

During a recent session of the ongoing hearing on the activities of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on August 21, the court ruled that officials did not adequately respond to cryptocurrency industry concerns about its activities.

RBI banned banks from supporting cryptographic operators, such as stock exchanges, in July 2018 - effectively stopping such platforms from continuing to operate in India. Today there has been harsh criticism from Supreme Court judge Rohinton Wave Nariman. As Crypto Kanoon, who was present at the trial, summed up on Twitter, Nariman gave RBI just two weeks to justify his actions.

Discussing the final result of the interrogation that has already ended, Crypto Kanoon concluded:

"The case took the most unpredictable turn. Judge Nariman orders the RBI to respond to representation in an appropriate manner. I offer to postpone the case for 2 weeks, as I heard, let the answer come after the RBI has reconsidered the ban. RBI agreed "- we read.

The case arises at the same time as the Indian government is considering making cryptocurrencies illegal for all citizens. In July, a government committee recommended the Delhi movement to ban all tokens except the official digital version of the rupee. Then the expert estimated that the country, if it signed the ban, would lose a market worth about 13 billion dollars.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair has moved towards the lower channel boundary located at the level of $8,700. So far the bulls are defending this level, but any breakout lower will be a clear signal that the downside momentum is accelerating. The nearest technical support is seen at the levels of $9,912 and $9,676. Still, the larger timeframe trend remains up, but to regain control over the market, the bulls have to break through the 50% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $10,840.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $13,461
WR2 - $12,432
WR1 - $11,161

Weekly Pivot - $10,133
WS1 - $9,200
WS2 - $8,268
WS3 - $7,027


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,049 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

BTC. Potential long term bear cycle in the play
21 August 2019

Industry news:
The narrative about the Chinese buying up Bitcoin is flowing two ways – some reports say that the Chinese are turning to the cryptocurrency because of the FUD created by the US-China trade war, while others indicate that the Chinese are not buying up crypto. An article by Nikkei Asian Review highlights that China's central bank may be pushing the demand for Bitcoin after all. "


Technical view:


Nothing changed since my yesterday's forecast.From the weekly time-frame prospective, BTC is trading inside of the trading range between the price of $12,275(high) and $9,000 (low).The high from June at $14,000 is holding well for 9 weeks and it is a warning for the further upside. I see potential for more downside.

Yellow rectangle – Major resistance ($14,00)

Purple horizontal line – Support 1 ($9,095)

Green rectangle – Support 2 ($6,755)

Blue lines – Pitchfork channels

Weekly pivot points:
S3 S2 S1 P R1 R2 R3

6214.61 8302.99 9210.35 10391.37 11298.73 12479.75 14568.13

There is a successful test and reject of the Pitchfork upward channel and stagnation for 9weeks, which is for me sign of the potential more downside. My advice is to watch for shorting opportunity here with targets at $9,095 and $6,755 as long as the BTC is trading below the $14,000.




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Forecast for Bitcoin and US dollar on August 21st. The difference between bitcoin and any other investment tool

Bitcoin – 4H.


Over the past day, Bitcoin has fallen in price by almost $700, which is absolutely normal. This drawdown does not even cause panic in the cryptocurrency market. Now, imagine what would happen if the US dollar fell to the euro by 2 cents per day? This happens 2-3 times a year, and even then not every year. Bitcoin can lose or buy 5-10% of the cost per day and no one is surprised. Crypto experts continue to blow at all corners that bitcoin will rise in price in any case, it's only a matter of time. Now, another question: have you seen at least one forecast that would predict bitcoin falling to $2,000 - $3,000? The answer, I think, is obvious. You can take any pair, any instrument, and there will always be so-called bulls and bears, traders who believe that the instrument or currency will rise in price or, conversely, cheaper, and depending on their strategy. In the case of bitcoin, the question is different: either to buy or not to trade. It is from such obvious differences between bitcoin and any other investment instruments or currency that I continue to argue that the demand for the "cue ball" and its value by 80% depends on the influx of new investors who want to earn faster. It is for this that crypto experts, millionaires, billionaires regularly recommend buying bitcoin, predict its growth to fabulous figures. In order for more one-day investors to come to the market, the demand for BTC has increased, the cryptocurrency has risen in price. And at high levels, it can be sold by collapsing the market from $20,000 to $3,000, as it was already.

Based on this, I do not claim that bitcoin does not need to be bought or that it will not grow, for example, to $50000. I only claim that bitcoin is a short-term investment tool, but not a long-term one. It does not perform the function of preserving the value, does not have its own value, its price depends entirely on market participants, the number of which allows major players to change the market conditions and mood.

At the moment, the "cue ball" has completed the closure under the correction level of 61.8% ($10251), so I expect the cryptocurrency to continue falling in the direction of the next Fibo level of 76.4% ($9782). Divergence is not evident today.

The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of July 17, 2019, and August 6, 2019.


Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
Bitcoin completed the closure under the Fibo level of 61.8% ($10251). Thus, I recommend selling the cryptocurrency with the target of $9782, with the stop-loss order above the level of 61.8%.

I recommend buying bitcoin with the target of $10642, and with the stop-loss level at $10251, if the consolidation above the correction level of 61.8% is performed.



Performed by Samir Klishi
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 20 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The Japanese cryptocurrency exchange Rakuten Wallet began trading a year after acquiring Everybody's Bitcoin.

Rakuten Wallet, which is a subsidiary of the Japanese e-commerce giant Rakuten, said that spot trading with three cryptocurrencies - Bitcoin, Ethereum and Bitcoin Cash - has already entered into force. In the future, developers plan to release an application for iOS and Android, the use of which will be mandatory for deposits and withdrawals.

"Customers who already have a bank account with Rakuten Bank will be able to easily open an account with Rakuten Wallet simply by entering the required information in the online application form"- we read in a press release.

Rakuten acquired Everybody's Bitcoin in August 2018 for $ 2.4 million. The management originally announced the upcoming premiere in April this year, but progress seemed to stall. The stock market joins the rapidly growing ecosystem in the Japanese market, and many competitors are fighting for a piece of domestic cryptocurrency trading.

Last month, Tokyo announced it wanted to create a cryptocurrency-based counterpart to SWIFT, the global payment settlement network, as part of a G7-approved move.


Technical Market Overview:
The bulls on the ETH/USD market have managed to move the prices higher towards the level of $197.70, which is a 38% retracement of the previous swing down. So far the bulls did not have the strength to break through this level, but if they will, then the next target is seen at the level of $215.63. There are two more retracements to hit as well and they are located at the level of $205.68 and $213.45. The immediate technical support is now located at the level of $190.94.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $257.46
WR2 - $236.43
WR1 - $213.67

Weekly Pivot - $193.41
WS1 - $171.74
WS2 - $150.23
WS3 - $128.88


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.





Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019