Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 12 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
Some analysts believe that the upcoming no-deal Brexit will drive Bitcoin's price to an unprecedented breakthrough and record highs in 2019. Some even predict that this can fundamentally change Bitcoin's place in the global economy.

Brexit is already causing market turmoil. The prospect of Brexit without an agreement has already resulted in a loss of pound sterling relative to other leading currencies. This tendency has been growing since the appointment of the hardened Brexiteer, Boris Johnson, as Prime Minister of Great Britain. Johnson promised that Britain would leave the European Union on October 31, 2019.

Leaving the EU without agreement will cause confusion and volatility in the two main fiat currencies, and will also cause an identity crisis in the global system, as unforeseen situations and vulnerabilities of the main global fiat currencies have been highlighted. Some say this will prevent capital from escaping to Bitcoin as a safe haven, causing prices to soar.

The concerns of the Confederation of British Industry that Brexit would be a trap of economic chaos without agreement mean that Bitcoin's position in the global economy can change fundamentally. In 2020, we expect an increasingly populist and politically unstable world to consolidate the status of a safe haven for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies more generally. And if central banks start increasing money printing again, arguments about cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, whose supply is limited, will be further strengthened.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair has been trading inside of the narrow range for some time now, consolidating the recent gains after the bounce from the level of $9,049. The local technical support located at the level of $11,027 has been tested during the consolidation cycle and the low of this test has been labeled as the low of the wave 2. It means the market is ready to continue the uptrend towards the new highs, but first, it will have to break out above the levels of $11,855, $12,008 and $12,269.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $13,583
WR2 - $12,879
WR1 - $12,118

Weekly Pivot - $11,389
WS1 - $10,550
WS2 - $9,816
WS3 - $9,007


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 08 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
Amazon wants to hire a software development engineer to develop the Blockchain advertising chain. The company published a job offer for a software development engineer on LinkedIn who is to work on a new solution. The online retail giant aims to expand its advertising business through the use of online retail data, industry-leading cloud services, and a rapidly growing startup culture.

The role of the selected engineer will be to analyze requirements, conduct design, implement basic components, cooperate with engineers and program managers. The position will also be responsible for operational support and system maintenance.

In addition, the engineer "will also be able to define the technical and architectural plan of systems' operation". The company has noted that it prefers candidates with experience in advertising, financial technology, and Blockchain.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair has made a new high at the level of $12,269 and then the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made, which made the price to reverse towards the level of $11,068. This technical support level has almost been hit, but the price has bounced again. From the Elliott wave point of view, it looks like the wave 1 might have been completed already and now the market is unfolding corrective wave 2. Wave 2 might be a more complex and time-consuming corrective pattern, so it is worth to keep an eye on the ongoing developments. So far all the moves up and down had been made in three waves only.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $13,750
WR2 - $12,333
WR1 - $11,817


Weekly Pivot - $10,382
WS1 - $9,882
WS2 - $8,441
WS3 - $7,9485


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up.

Attachment 1178



Attachment 1179
Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 08 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
In a local online magazine Gustavo Franco looks at the Libra project from Facebook and the potential of cryptocurrencies in the field of traditional economy. The former president of the Brazilian Central Bank also allows himself very favorable comments on digital assets:

"Bitcoin is the most spectacular of cryptocurrencies, and the business built around it can be worth up to $ 175 billion (the value of all BTC in circulation). The difference, however, is that there are no shares, no shareholders or top-down management, " wrote Franco, who was the chairman of the Brazilian central bank twice in the 1990s, and then became a private investor and founded the company Rio Bravo Investimentos.

In his article, Franco focuses not only on the potential Bitcoin itself but also on the opportunities offered by cryptocurrencies marketed by huge corporations, which in the future may exclude traditional banks from the financial equation.

In his opinion, projects such as Libra, despite the lack of advantages associated with decentralization, are still a big threat to current financial institutions, and if a cryptocurrency appears on the market, it may soon be joined by similar instruments of other corporations: "McDonald's could create a Mac, a convertible cryptocurrency for sandwiches in restaurant chains. In turn, Starbucks would introduce the Star token, for which users would buy their favorite coffee" Franco goes ahead.


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair has made a local low at the level of $219.27 after the technical support zone located between the levels of $224.95 - $221.50 had been violated. Moreover, the price is trading below the short-term decreasing trendline resistance, which indicated the corrective pullback might take a while. Any breakout above the trendline will be a first bullish signal with a target at the level of $238.68.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $260.89
WR2 - $241.83
WR1 - $232.61

Weekly Pivot - $214.73
WS1 - $206.31
WS2 - $187.76
WS3 - $178.82


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume sooner or later. We are waiting for a breakout above the level of $235.42 to confirm the bullish momentum.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin holds above $12,000.
07 August 2019

Bitcoin has been quite volatile recently after breaking above the $12,000 area but failed to keep it up and had a major retreat. Though the price drastically fell below $11,500 today, it still managed to climb above $12,000 again.

The journey towards the $13,800 area is not going to be an easy one for Bitcoin as it has found strong resistance at $12,000 which is expected to play a vital role in the upcoming rally of the cryptocurrency. Although the price is struggling to break above the $12,000 area, the bullish bias is still quite strong. This, bitcoin is likely to soar above the recent high of $13,800 and reach the psychological price area of $15,000 by the end of August.

Besides, Bitcoin's growth has been quite exponential leaving a significant mark on world finance. Currently, it is crowned as the 11th largest money supply in the world. Bitcoin's market capitalization is over $200 billion which is larger than most of the world economies like Australia, Canada, or Brazil. Bitcoin is even competing with gold. The yellow metal has a market capitalization of $8 trillion. However, the growth of Bitcoin is quite impressive, while the technology of decentralized money transaction is assumed to be the future of finance.

As for the current scenario, Bitcoin is supported by encouraging fundamentals, and the positive market sentiment is expected to lead to the rise of the cryptocurrency in the coming days. It may reach the $15,000 area in the nearest future if no negative news strikes.


TECHNICAL OVERVIEW:
Bitcoin is trading above the $12,000 area at the moment, climbing above the Kumo Cloud dynamic resistance area. The dynamic levels are currently crossing over each other, and the bullish signal is quite strong. As far as the price remains above $11,500 with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue and push the price higher towards the $13,800 area and later towards $15,000 in the coming days.

TECHNICAL LEVELS:

SUPPORT- 10,500 / 11,000 / 11,500 / 12,000

RESISTANCE- 12,500 / 13,300 / 13,800 / 15,000

BIAS- Bullish

MOMENTUM- Volatile






Performed by Rocky Yaman
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

BTC. End of the downwad correction, watch for buying opporutnities
07 August 2019

Industry news:
With a market capitalization of just over $200 billion, Bitcoin is now larger than the money supply of South Korea, Australia, Canada, and Brazil. According to statistics it could soon enter the top ten outpacing the likes of Russia and India.

Crypto trader going by the twitter handle 'Rhythm Trader' pointed out that Bitcoin is now the eleventh largest currency in the world.

"Bitcoin is now the 11th largest money in the world, and it obtained this with only a nine-page paper created anonymously fueled by a grassroots movement. Millions of people have chosen a bank with no CEO, office or marketing department and it should absolutely blow your mind."


Technical view:


Based on the 4H time-frame, I found that downward correction did complete and that there is a chance for testing of resistance levels at $12.300 and in case of the break BTC may try to visit $12.850-$13.100.

Both MACD and Stochastic oscillators are showing the new buying flow and there is the flip up on both oscillators, which is positive sign for further rally.

Resistance levels to watch:

$12.300 – Recent H4 swing high

$12.850 – Cluster swing high

$13.118 – Swing high


Support levels to watch:
$11.430 – Recent swing low levels

$11.000 – Gap zone


Trading recommendation:
Due to potential end of the downward correction and underlying upward momentum, my advice is to watch for buying opportunities with the first target at $12.850.



Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Forecast for Bitcoin and US dollar on August 7th. In the confrontation between the dollar and Bitcoin, the dollar looks stronger

Bitcoin – 4H.


As seen on the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin soared to the correction level of 76.4% ($12137). However, there followed the rebound and drop in quotes "cue" to the Fibo level of 50.0% ($11057). A bullish divergence is brewing at the CCI indicator, which can send BTC to new highs. Unfortunately, often the growth of bitcoin provokes a large influx of one-day investors, which causes an even greater growth of the cryptocurrency. This is its main difference not only from fiat money but also from most other assets. In the case of bitcoin, its purchase can bring a solid profit in 2-3 days. For example, over the past week, "cue" rose by $3000. What other assets can boast of such profitability? It is among investors and owners of Bitcoin that there is a huge number of one-day trials that form a high demand for an asset and provoke its rapid growth. And large investors, analysts, and cryptocurrency experts regularly make predictions about the future value of BTC from $20000 to $100000, thus fueling the interest of traders. Even those "cue balls" that lie on the accounts of their owners for more than 5 years intact are hardly used to save the value. These are long-term investments of large investors. Thus, I believe that bitcoin can only grow due to the wave-like roll of small investors on each wave of bitcoin growth. Bitcoin has no fundamental reason for growth.

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of July 10, 2019, and July 17, 2019.


Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
Bitcoin has completed the consolidation above the Fibo level of 61.8%. Thus, I recommend buying cryptocurrency with the target of $12137, with the stop-loss order below the level of 61.8%. I recommend selling bitcoin with the target of $11057, and with the stop-loss order above the level of $11544, if the closure is performed under the correction level of 61.8%.



Performed by Samir Klishi
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 07 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The digital currency proposed by Walmart - the American giant of supermarket chains - should not hit such a big resistance in regulatory matters as Libra, the virtual currency proposed by Facebook.

Walmart's cryptocurrency may be attractive to democratic legislators who want to find an alternative financial infrastructure for people who do not regularly use banks.

Libra and Walmart's cryptographic offer differ in scale: Facebook has global intentions that Walmart does not seem to share.

Walmart's proposal is unlikely to receive Congressional consent, as Walmart's currency can be seen as a threat to small banks and credit unions.

As for the details of Walmart's proposed currency, it can be in the form of a card with a stored value associated with the US dollar, just like a rechargeable gift card.

Walmart does not intend to implement its cryptocurrency in the near future. A spokesman for Walmart said he did not plan to immediately use the newly filed patent application entitled "Digital currency system and method via Blockchain", which was published on August 1. As indicated in the patent, Walmart appears to apply for standard stablecoin.


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair has made a new local high at the level of $238.58 during the failed breakout above the 50% of the Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down. Nevertheless, the price reversed back down again and hit the technical support at the level of $221.50 before a local pull-back was made. Currently, the market is consolidating the recent gains in a narrow price range, but the momentum is clearly decreasing, so any breakout below the green zone will be considered bearish. Please notice, that the corrective cycle in wave 2 of the higher degree might have been completed already. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $216.67.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $260.89
WR2 - $241.83
WR1 - $232.61

Weekly Pivot - $214.73
WS1 - $206.31
WS2 - $187.76
WS3 - $178.82


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume sooner or later. We are waiting for a breakout above the level of $235.42 to confirm the bullish momentum.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 07 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
Nearly $ 2 billion, so much according to the United Nations (UN) North Korea stole by hacking banks and cryptocurrency exchanges.

In a confidential report obtained by the mainstream media, the Sanctions Committee of the United Nations Security Council stated that hackers constitute a significant part of government funds:

"Cybercriminals from the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, many operating under the direction of the General Recognition Bureau, raise money for weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs, and total revenues from this account are estimated at two billion dollars," reads a UN report

North Korea is very often one of the first suspects in the case of hacker attacks on cryptocurrency exchanges, especially those located in nearby Asian countries. It is due to the so-called Lazarus Group, which brings together the best specialists from North Korean universities.

According to North Korean deserter Kim Heung-Kwang, a former computer science professor at the Hamheung University of Computer Technology, there are at least 7,000 hackers (from the Lazarus group) in North Korea, overseen by the national intelligence agency Reconnaissance General Bureau. They specialize in cybercrime, but they can also mine cryptocurrencies.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair has made a new high at the level of $12,269 and then the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made, which made the price to reverse towards the level of $11,068. This technical support level has almost been hit, but the price has bounced again. From the Elliott wave point of view, it looks like the wave 1 might have been completed already and now the market is unfolding corrective wave 2.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $13,750
WR2 - $12,333
WR1 - $11,817

Weekly Pivot - $10,382
WS1 - $9,882
WS2 - $8,441
WS3 - $7,9485


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

BTC. Ovebought conditon, porential downward movement
06 August 2019

Industry news:
HM Revenue & Customs, the British tax authority, is pressuring cryptocurrency exchanges to reveal customers' names and transaction histories, in a bid to claw back unpaid taxes, industry sources said.

Letters requesting lists of customers and transaction data have landed on the doorsteps of at least three exchanges doing business in the U.K. – Coinbase, eToro and CEX.IO – in the last week or so, the sources said. None of the three firms would comment by press time.

"HMRC is looking to work with exchanges when it comes to finding information on people who have been buying and selling crypto. I think they will only go back a couple of years, two or three years," said one industry insider.

Daily view:

Based on the hourly time-frame, I found bearish divergence on the MACD oscillator, which is sign of potential downward movement and buyers exhaustion. I also found a strong supply in the background and rejection of 20EMA, which adds more weakness on BTC.


Trading recommendation:
According to current market condition, my advice is to watch for selling opportunities with the first target at $11,000.




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin above $12,000 to achieve $15,000
06 August 2019

Bitcoin is expected to push further upwards. It managed to secure certain insurable area for the bulls above $10,500 area. Therefore, Bitcoin is expected to reach $15,000 area by breaking above the recent high of $13,800.

Bitcoin and gold are the most preferable safe-haven assets among the investors all over the world after the key rate cut by the Fed and a new round of US-China trade war. Bitcoin is expected to hit a new high this week as China's central bank has devalued its currency by setting its daily reference rate for the yuan/dollar at 6.92. Even though crypto trading is technically banned in China, investors can still access OTC and peer-to-peer platforms to load up on Bitcoin and other crypto assets. With decades of oppression and internet censorship, the people are quite used to circumventing state controls to access what is freely available elsewhere, crypto included.

Earlier some speculations were against Bitcoin's growth and many expected the price to fall back towards $6000 area again, but Bitcoin set a rally. It is expected to push the price higher towards $15,000 area. The last two times that Bitcoin has seen this signal in this cycle was preceding two three-weeks surges to the upside of 52% and 61%. Should history repeat itself, Bitcoin could surge to around $17,000 by the end of August. As Dow Jones and other prominent stocks plunge, Bitcoin gained in value which is expected to sustain further until a new high above $13,800 is created.


TECHNICAL OVERVIEW:
The price is currently residing above $12,000 area which is expected to correct itself and retest $12,000 area again before any upside pressure is observed in the coming days. Though the price has been quite non-volatile, and no Bearish Divergence is seen. The price has a greater probability to push high above $13,800 area and achieve the psychological price area of $15,000.


TECHNICAL LEVELS:

SUPPORT- 10500, 11000, 11500, 12000

RESISTANCE- 12500, 12800, 13300, 13800, 15000

BIAS- Bullish

MOMENTUM- Non-Volatile






Performed by Rocky Yaman
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019