Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

BTC. Bearish flag in creation
30 July 2019

Industry news:
Announced by Pundi X in a blog post on Monday, the firms have entered a symbiotic relationship regarding their wallet tech, with Pundi X integrating with Samsung's Blockchain Wallet and making its XWallet available to the Galaxy S10 phone's blockchain app options.

"This presents a unique opportunity to push blockchain technology and blockchain-based digital assets into the mainstream, reaching the millions of Samsung smartphone users around the world," firm says in the post.


Technical view:

BTC is trading sideways at the price of $9.550 and it seems like it is building a bear flag for more downside. Pat attention on important resistance levels at $9.600 and $9.700.

Technical picture:

Red rising line – Bear flag pattern in creation

Gray rectangle – Resistance 1 ($9.600)

Blue rectangle – Resistance 2 ($9.700)

Orange horizontal line – Main swing low ($9.101)

Stochastic oscillator is showing bearish divergence, which is sign for potential buyers exhaustion near the level of $9.600. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities with the downward target at $9.101.



Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 31 July 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The US Department of Defense (DoD) aims to implement Blockchain's cybersecurity solution as part of its digital modernization strategy.

DoD has published plans for Blockchain technology in its four-year plan entitled "Digital DoD modernization strategy: Strategic plan for information management FY19-23."

According to the report, the Department's research branch, the Advanced Defense Research Projects Agency (DARPA), is currently involved in at least two cybercrime exploration projects using Blockchain.

First, DARPA is experimenting with Blockchain to build a new - or improved - communication and transaction platform. The stated intentions for this platform include communication between the units and the headquarters, as well as between intelligence officers and the Pentagon.

Second, DARPA tries to create an "unclassified code" using Blockchain technology, citing the ability of Blockchain to collect information about villains who are trying to break into databases.

Earlier, in February, DARPA announced plans to organize a two-day Blockchain workshop. DARPA was particularly interested in the study of consensus protocols not requiring consent. The organization also noted that there are potentially valuable use cases for Blockchain in storing data, saying: "The technologies of distributed consensus protocols have been revolutionized thanks to their significant role in cryptocurrency technologies and Blockchain. These technologies have dramatic implications for security and resilience when storing sensitive data and calculations, including for the Department of Defense".


Technical Market Overview:
Not much has changed at this market since the beginning of the week as the ETH/USD pair still keeps trading inside of a narrow price range between two levels of $189.91 - $223.38. The level of the local support at $199.68 has been tested, but the price did not break below but bounced back to the range. The bulls did not make any decision regarding the possible move higher, so the bullish momentum is decreasing as the price goes nowhere fast. In order to continue the move upwards, the bulls must break through the Fibonacci retracement levels located at $223.38, $233.77 and $244.16. Oterwise, the market will stay inside of the trading range or will be pushed lower by bears to test the technical support at the level of $189.91 again.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $247.21
WR2 - $236.28
WR1 - $220.47

Weekly Pivot - $209.37
WS1 - $191.97
WS2 - $182.25
WS3 - $161.51


Trading recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume sooner or later.





Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Forecast for Bitcoin and US dollar on July 31. Bitcoin, the most ambiguous tool, can move into growth again

Bitcoin – 4H.


As seen on the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin made a return to the correction level of 100.0% ($9679). However, the bearish divergence of the CCI indicator allows traders to count on some Bitcoin fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% ($8744). However, the passage of the peak of that divergence will cancel it, and the growth of BTC will continue in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% ($10478). According to many experts, Bitcoin in the long term will only continue to rise in price. In 2020, there will be a reduction in the remuneration of miners for the mined block. Now, it is 12.5 BTC, and will be – 6.25 BTC. The last time a similar event happened, in 2016, Bitcoin prices soared 10 times. However, the question: Is it possible that an unconfirmed cryptocurrency, which is often used for illegal purposes, will rise in price simply on the basis of a decrease in supply? It seems so. Of course, halving will take place only next year, and the "cue" and other cryptocurrencies still cannot exist on their own. That is, if the governments of the largest countries of the world prohibit the turnover of cryptocurrencies, it will already entail the collapse of their value. Thus, we can say that Bitcoin is growing, because it is still allowed to do so. India, however, has already banned cryptocurrencies. Perhaps in the future, other countries will follow its example.

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of July 2, 2019, and July 10, 2019.

Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
Bitcoin made a return to the correction level of 100.0% ($9679). Thus, I recommend selling the cryptocurrency with the target of $8744, with the stop-loss order above the level of 38.2%, if there is a new rebound from the level of 100.0%. I recommend buying Bitcoin with a view to $10478, and with a stop-loss order under the level of $9558, if the closing above the correction level of 38.2% is performed.



Performed by Samir Klishi
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for May 17,.2021 - Third target reached at $43.000 but potential for further downside towards $30.000

Technical analysis:



BTC has been trading downwards as I expected. The price reached my third downside target at the price of $43.000.


Trading recommendation:
Anyway, my advice is still to watch for selling opportunities on the rallies with the downside target at $30.100.

Stochastic oscillator is in the oversold zone but there is no fresh bull cross, which is still bearish tone.

Resistance is set at $47.000





Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

XRP shows more signs of strength.

Despite the negative sentiment among most cryptocurrencies at the start of the week, XPR is showing signs of strength as price respects support and moves higher towards recent highs. XRP/USD has been differentiated from Bitcoin that is showing major topping signs.



Red lines - resistance trend lines

Blue lines- support trend lines

Green rectangle- major horizontal support area

XRP/USD made a high yesterday just above $1.60 while today price pulled back towards $1.30. The key support at $1.20 remains intact. Price has now moved above the short-term resistance trend line once again and has potential of reaching the upper resistance trend line at $1.65. As we explained in our last post, a break above $1.61 would be a bullish sign. XRP/USD shows that it is not so much affected by the negativity in other cryptocurrencies and might start a big upward move soon, if resistance is broken. We remind that bulls do not want to see price break below $1.20 as this will lead to a deeper decline towards $1 and lower.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BITCOIN: Technical analysis of the current situation

BITCOIN


The bearish traders, who outlined the preconditions for the decline in April, are busy with the implementation of the downward movement in May. Last week was productive for the bears. They managed to cope with the attraction of the daytime cloud and, having gone beyond it, worked out the breakout target (45275 - 43109). Now bitcoin is in a fairly wide support zone formed by benchmarks from different time intervals (46238 - 45275 - 43109 - 41432 - 40514). The attraction and influence of such strong levels, combining their efforts in the support zones encountered, can again delay the development of the situation for a long time. For the appearance of further plans, the bulls need to implement a rebound from the encountered support and attraction zone. The main reference point in this case will be the area of 55000, overcoming this milestone will allow making new plans. Intermediate resistances on this path can currently be noted at 48858 – 50895 – 53515. In turn, the breakdown of the support zones (46238-40514) will lead to testing of important monthly boundaries (Ichimoku golden cross 37297 – 34354), and also raise the question of eliminating the weekly Ichimoku golden cross, its final boundary is now located at 34790.



The advantage of the lower halves belongs to the bears. Support for classic Pivot levels can be noted at 42137 – 40124 – 36288. There is a downward trend, but at the moment bitcoin is in the correction zone. The main benchmarks for the development of the correction are located today at 45973 (the central Pivot level of the day) and 49289 (the weekly long-term trend). Fixing above can change the current balance of power in the lower halves and confirm the formation of rebound from the supports encountered in the higher halves.


The technical analysis of the situation uses:

higher time frames - Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) + Fibo Kijun levels

H1 - Pivot Points (classic) + Moving Average 120 (weekly long-term trend)





Evangelos Poulakis
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Square announces $20M loss on Bitcoin investments



While bitcoin continues its decline for more than a month, more and more players are changing their position from plus to minus. For example, Square, which previously invested $220 million in the purchase of "digital gold", said that it no longer plans to buy bitcoin. In its quarterly report, the company said that it suffered a loss of $20 million from the drop in the price of bitcoin to $45,000. "We have no plans for further investment in bitcoin," said Amrita Ahuja, the company's chief financial officer. At the same time, the CEO of the analytical company CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, hinted as gently as possible that bitcoin may continue its decline in the near future. According to him, large investors are transferring their coins to cryptocurrency exchanges, "so there may be increased volatility in the near future." In reality, this means that the "whales" come to the exchanges with one goal - to sell their coins. Consequently, the supply of bitcoin on the stock exchanges increases, but the demand is far from a fact. "If you are a long-term investor in bitcoin, then you have no reason to worry. Your portfolio is the same as that of US institutional investors," said Ki Young Ju, and his claim is highly controversial.

Also, bitcoin could be pressured by news from unofficial sources that the activities of the Binance crypto exchange, which is one of the largest and most famous in the world, have been investigated by the US Department of Justice and the US Internal Revenue Service for violations related to money laundering and tax legislation. It is reported that at this time, no charges have been brought against the exchange. A representative of the exchange itself said that they take the legislation very seriously and always cooperate with law enforcement agencies. According to the exchange's director, Changpeng Zhao, they are simply cooperating with law enforcement agencies regarding "bad players."

All this news is called "negative fundamental background". And the more such news comes in, the more difficult it is to count on the resumption of the bullish trend. It is possible that an avalanche-like fall has begun, which will take bitcoin very, very far down. And with it the entire cryptocurrency market.




Paolo Greco
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

ETH falls into correction, ADA sets new all-time record: altcoin market forecast

The weekend turned out to be quite controversial for the altcoin market. On Saturday, the indicators of the main cryptocurrencies were actively growing, but the sudden collapse of bitcoin quotes did not leave the coins a chance. As a result, on May 17, the cryptocurrency market shrank by 8%, and the total capitalization fell to $2.1 trillion.

Ethereum confidently held its position near the all-time high of around $4,000, the main altcoin had all the prerequisites for continuing growth and setting a new record. If you look at the charts, you can see that the fall in ETH/USD quotes began on May 16, when bitcoin indicators began a downward movement. Musk's negative statements finished off BTC, which began to affect the performance of all cryptocurrencies. As a result, the impending correction of Ethereum was aggravated by a sharp collapse of the entire market. As of 13:00 UTC, the ETH/USD pair is trading at $3,520. The asset lost 7% in price, and the weekly dynamics of changes in quotes became negative (-11%). At the same time, ether is the only coin that has sufficient prerequisites for the resumption of growth. It is likely that the situation of a week ago will be repeated when ETH recovered earlier than others after the collapse of BTC and dragged the entire market with it.



A completely different dynamic is shown by the Ripple token, which managed to overcome the difficult psychological threshold of $1.4-$1.45. The cryptocurrency shows an excellent result and almost completely recouped the fall of yesterday. Judging by the charts, the token made a sharp jump on Saturday, which supported the market, and the asset continued to grow in smaller jumps. However, the collapse of bitcoin pushed the cryptocurrency to the level of $1,359, from where XRP resumed growth. As of 13:00 UTC, the crypto asset is quoted at $1.54 and continues to grow in price. The dynamics of changes in the value of the cryptocurrency over the past few hours have become extremely positive (+3.5%). The main reason for such rapid growth in altcoin quotes was another victory for Ripple in the courtroom. The company has gained access to documents that can prove that the regulator does not consider cryptocurrencies to be securities. This news not only contributes to the growth of the token quotes but also can inspire optimism in all market participants.



Litecoin indicators, like ETH, collapsed after the decline of bitcoin and the saturation of the crypto market with negative news. As of 13:00 UTC, LTC/USD quotes are quoted at $290, and the cryptocurrency itself has lost 8% in price. The dynamics of price changes for the week is -25.5%, which indicates the complete helplessness of the asset without the positive influence of external factors. The situation is different for altcoin ADA, which set a new all-time record at around $2.4. This allowed the cryptocurrency to climb to the 4th place in terms of capitalization with a result of $69.7 billion. However, the asset failed to overcome the negative of the market and dropped in price by 8% over the course of the day. As of 15:00 UTC, the coin is quoted at $2.18. The cryptocurrency has its own reason for negativity, because billionaire Mark Cuban condemned the coin, doubting the possibility of its practical application.





Despite the prevailing amount of negative news, the cryptocurrency market will begin to actively recover its positions in the next few days. The main driving force will be the XRP token, which gains investor confidence and allows the market to overcome the collapse caused by bitcoin. Ether will also begin to recover its positions, which will help weaker altcoins resume growth. However, it should be noted that such a scenario is possible with a more or less positive news background.




Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for May 18, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
Michael Novogratz's Galaxy Digital company published on Friday a report entitled "On Bitcoin's Energy Consumption: A Quantitative Approach to a Subjective Question", providing access to its open source calculation methodology.

A study by the Galaxy mining arm estimates that the annual electricity consumption of the Bitcoin network is 113.89 TWh, including the energy consumption of miners, the energy consumption of the pool, and the energy consumption of the nodes. According to Galaxy estimates, this is at least two times lower than the total energy consumed by the banking system and the gold sector on an annual basis.

Galaxy Digital Mining claims that while Bitcoin's energy consumption is transparent and easy to track in real-time with tools like the Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index, assessing energy use in the gold industry and traditional financial system is not that simple.

"The banking sector does not report electricity consumption data directly," the report reads. Moreover, the retail and commercial banking system requires multiple settlement layers, while Bitcoin offers clear final settlement. Based on Galaxy's estimates of the energy consumption of banking data centers, bank branches, ATMs and card network data centers, the total annual energy consumption of the banking system worldwide is estimated at 263.72 TWh.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has made another wave down to the level of $42,082 and bounced off the lows towards the immediate technical resistance is seen at the level of $45,710, $46,371 and $47,077. Please notice, the market still trades under the trend line resistance. The zone located between the levels of $43,097 - $41,794 is the key short-term demand zone and any violation of this zone will lead to another wave down towards the level of $40,942 and $39,969. The market is in full control of bears and only a strong breakout above the level of $47,077 would temporary change the outlook to bullish (but still corrective in nature).


Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $67,286
WR2 - $62,987
WR1 - $51,788


Weekly Pivot - $47,852
WS1 - $35,984
WS2 - $32,386
WS3 - $20,567


Trading Recommendations:
Event despite the recent correction the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. Any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $50,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $50k).







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin continues to lose position because of Elon Musk

Elon Musk has again put fear among investors that the cryptocurrency market is overheated, not to mention at the complete mercy of speculators. His recent Twitter posts compelled traders to sell their positions, so as a result, the value of Bitcoin slipped again, continuing the bearish trend it was experiencing for two weeks already. Many believe that Musk is doing this to test the strength of the market, or to make Bitcoin cheaper so that he can gain new large positions.



But some are convinced that Musk really sold his positions, especially after the large inflow seen on various cryptocurrency exchanges. To add to that, Musk responded to a Twitter post that says he might have sold his positions already given the amount of hate he is receiving. Musk answered "Indeed", shaking the confidence of investors. Such led to a 10% drop in Bitcoin, bringing it to a new three-month low. Although on Monday morning, he made it clear that Tesla has not sold its bitcoins yet, so the price bounced back to $ 45,000.

Obviously, Musk's statements have been the main driver of the crypto market this year. Bitcoin hit $ 64,000 when Tesla revealed that it invested $ 1.5 billion in the cryptocurrency. And on a Twitter post, Musk said Tesla's recent earnings report proves that Bitcoin can be used as an alternative to keeping cash on a balance sheet.

But now, pressure on the market has returned, even amid Musk's assurances that Tesla has not sold a single bitcoin. Apparently, there was a one-day transfer of 20,000 BTC to Bitfinex last week, bringing the rate down below $ 58,000.



And just this weekend, price has fallen below $47,500, hitting $43,000. If Bitcoin continues to trade downwards, it might reach $37,900 this week, or as low as $33,300. The range will be $39,500 - $33,300. But if Bitcoin returns to $47,500, it will have an opportunity to reach $52,000 again.





Jakub Novak
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021