Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 18 November 2020

Crypto Industry Outlook:
Jay Clayton, who has served as chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission since May 2017, will leave the agency by the end of 2021.

In its official announcement, the agency noted that Clayton is one of the longest-serving people. Cryptocurrency enthusiasts are likely to be familiar with the work of an agency that has dealt with some of the most controversial regulatory issues facing the new asset class.

These include early debates on whether certain crypto assets should be defined as a security according to the 71-year Howey test.

As CEO, Clayton also warned Bitcoin investors last year that they would be "very wrong", expecting the cryptocurrency to be traded on major exchanges without more solid regulation.

During Clayton's tenure, the SEC reportedly secured orders for more than $ 14 billion in cash, a record $ 4.68 billion in fiscal 2020 alone, and returned approximately $ 3.5 billion to affected investors. The commission also paid approximately $ 565 million to whistleblowers, the largest single amount paid out, $ 114 million.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has made another yearly high at the level of $18,389 and the way to $20k remains intact. The market volatility has increased as the Bitcoin trades in the upper boundary of the the ascending channel. The intraday technical support is seen at the level of $17,000 and the technical resistance is now a swing high located at $18,389. As long as the market trades above the level of $15,000 the short-term outlook remains bullish.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $18,219
WR2 - $17,297
WR1 - $16,656

Weekly Pivot - $15,563
WS1 - $14,969
WS2 - $14,056
WS3 - $13,330


Trading Recommendations:
Bitcoin is trading at the yearly highs and bulls are in control of the market. The up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $20,000, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $15,000 is broken.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 18 November 2020

Crypto Industry Outlook:
According to the announcement, the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic is drafting a bill that would regulate the exchange of cryptocurrencies in consultation with industry stakeholders.

The bank said the bill will regulate the sale and purchase of cryptocurrencies in order to combat fraudulent cryptocurrency schemes and financial crimes, as well as protect the rights of consumers and investors.

Among the expected benefits of the upcoming regulations, the bank highlights the improved development of digital financial products, favorable conditions for the business environment, and even the possible introduction of a formal tax regime for digital assets.

However, the bank also expects cryptocurrency laws to be tied up with other hurdles, stating that the cross-border nature of many private cryptocurrencies will make it difficult for law enforcement without adequate monitoring and implementation infrastructure.

In fact, the bank says that due to the "lack of regulation and the chaotic nature of the cryptocurrency market," there is no hard data on the number of businesses that would fall under the new law.

According to the announcement, the bank expects the strict cryptocurrency regulations to provide more confidence to cryptocurrency businesses and attract investment without significantly impacting the government budget.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has broken the supply zone located between the levels of $459.44 - $476.29 and made a new high at the level of $493.74. The outlook remains bullish and the next target for bulls is the level of $500, but the recent Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern might be a first sign of a warning. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $487.70. Only if a daily candle closes below $360 level, then the bears will have full control of the market and might push the prices deeper below this level.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $507.71
WR2 - $490.25
WR1 - $463.71

Weekly Pivot - $448.80
WS1 - $421.33
WS2 - $405.66
WS3 - $377.90


Trading Recommendations:
The up trend on the Ethereum continues and the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $500, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $360 is broken.





Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for November 17,.2020 - Bearish divergence on the 4h time-frame and potential for the downside rotation

Further Development


Analyzing the current trading chart of BTC, I found that the tested the median Pitchfork line with the bear divergece on the Stochastic oscillator, which is sign for the potential downside rotation.

My advice is to watch for selling opportunities with the downside targets at $16,600 and $15,870

BTC looks overextended and selling opportunities are preferable under this condiiton....


Key Levels:

Resistance: $17,000 and $19,500

Support levels: $16,600 and $15,870



Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 17 November 2020

Crypto Industry Outlook:
Ukraine is a world leader in the Global Crypto Adoption Index 2020, according to a study published by Chainalysis in early autumn. Even so, cryptocurrencies remain a gray area in the economy. Since 2014, Ukrainian authorities have been trying to implement cryptocurrency laws that would transform the country into a competitive jurisdiction for cryptocurrency business, but these efforts have yielded no results. Finally, just a few months ago, the Ukrainian government introduced a new law on digital assets to legitimize the sector - and this time the attempt could be successful.

The fintech strategy of the Ukrainian central bank, the NBU, has committed itself to legalizing the activity using cryptocurrencies. According to the document, by 2025, crypto assets will fully enter the legislative field and a transparent infrastructure will be created that will allow it to operate in the market.

The new law seems to provide a solid roadmap and delegate responsibilities. It is explicitly stated that the governmental Ministry of Digital Transformation will be the primary regulator controlling and monitoring all activity involving crypto assets. When it comes to tracking suspicious cryptocurrency transactions, the department has already agreed to work with the analytical company Crystal Blockchain BV, developed by the Bitfury Group.


Technical Market Outlook:
After the local low was made at the level of $438.18 the market broke out of the descending channel and moved higher towards the level of $466.63. The outlook remains bullish and the next target for bulls is the swing high located at the level of $476.29. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $459.47. Only if a daily candle closes below $360 level, then the bears will have full control of the market and might push the prices deeper below this level.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $507.71
WR2 - $490.25
WR1 - $463.71

Weekly Pivot - $448.80
WS1 - $421.33
WS2 - $405.66
WS3 - $377.90


Trading Recommendations:
The up trend on the Ethereum continues and the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $500, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $309.61 is broken.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 17 November 2020

Crypto Industry Outlook:
Bitcoin whale put a $ 100 million bitcoin short order on one of the cryptocurrency exchanges. While Bitcoin's dynamics remain strong, there are many reasons why the $ 16,000 level is an attractive area for sellers.

At $ 16,000, there is a lot of liquidity mainly due to high resistance. This level saw relatively high demand from buyers, as evidenced by the influx of stablecoins. Consequently, the $ 16,000 battle between buyers and sellers makes it a highly liquid area that is very attractive to sellers.

On November 15, someone aggressively sold $ 100 million worth of bitcoins through ByBit. Even the day before yesterday in the morning, sales orders grew in just a few hours to the value of nearly $ 3.5 million.

Judging from a sudden sell order of such a large scale, this could result in two scenarios: First, the seller could cause a squeeze, which could in turn increase the price of bitcoin. Second, it may still exert selling pressure on BTC.

Meanwhile, in the last 24 hours, huge amounts of digital currency were deposited on other exchanges. According to CryptoQuant data, the American cryptocurrency exchange Gemini received a deposit of 9,000 BTC.

Bitcoin whales typically use exchanges with strict compliance and strict regulatory measures. Gemini is one of them, but also Coinbase.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has made another yearly high at the level of $16,811 and the way to $17,000 remains intact. The market volatility has decreased, but the price of Bitcoin is still above $16,000 despite the recent fell out from the ascending channel. The intraday technical support is seen at the level of $15,651 and the technical resistance is now a swing high located at $16,418. As long as the market trades above the level of $15,000 the short-term outlook remains bullish.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $18,219
WR2 - $17,297
WR1 - $16,656

Weekly Pivot - $15,563
WS1 - $14,969
WS2 - $14,056
WS3 - $13,330


Trading Recommendations:
Bitcoin is trading at the yearly highs and bulls are in control of the market. The up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $16,000, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $10,000 is broken.





Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for November 16,.2020 - Breakout of the upside channel and potential for downside rotation towards $15.800

Further Development



Analyzing the current trading chart of BTC, I found that there is the breakout of the rising trend channel in the background and potential for another downside cycle.

My advice is to watch for selling opportunities on the rallies with the downside targets at $15,800 and $14,860


Key Levels:

Resistance: $16,500

Support levels: $15,800 and $14,860



Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 16 November 2020

Crypto Industry Outlook:
CitiBank Managing Director Tom Fitzpatrick, in his latest report "Bitcoin: 21st Century Gold", points to clear analogies between the 1970 gold market and Bitcoin.

The basis for comparing bitcoin with gold, according to Fitzpatricks, is monetary inflation and the devaluation of the dollar:

"Bitcoin was born in the wake of the Great Financial Crisis (2008) which brought a new shift in the monetary regime as we reached zero interest rates."

Fitzpatrick pointed out that this resulted in the first Bitcoin bull cycle (2011 to 2013) when its value increased 555 times.

The current COVID-19 crisis and the associated government monetary and fiscal response create a similar market environment to gold in the 1970s. Governments have made it clear that they will not avoid unprecedented money printing until GDP and employment rates return to normal.

Fitzpatrick did not stop there. His Bitcoin price projection chart shows a value of $ 318,000 through December 2021.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has been seen trading in a narrow range located between the levels of $15,834 - $16,072 during the weekend. The market volatility has decreased, but the price of Bitcoin is still above $15,000 despite the recent fell out from the ascending channel. The intraday technical support is seen at the level of $15,651 and the technical resistance is now a swing high located at $16,418. As long as the market trades above the level of $15,000 the outlook remains bullish.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $18,219
WR2 - $17,297
WR1 - $16,656

Weekly Pivot - $15,563
WS1 - $14,969
WS2 - $14,056
WS3 - $13,330


Trading Recommendations:
Bitcoin is trading at the yearly highs and bulls are in control of the market. The up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $16,000, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $10,000 is broken.





Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of 16 November 2020

Crypto Industry Outlook:
Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao said he needed to do more to block "smart" US traders from illegally accessing its global stock exchange. In an interview with the financial media, CZ said its stock exchange needs to be "smarter about the way we block" US traders from accessing the platform:

"Basically, we are constantly trying to improve our security. Sometimes there are a few guys who want to bypass our locks and still use the platform. We have to come up with a smarter way to strengthen protection, and when we do, we lock them."

Binance, which is the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange by volume, stopped serving US traders in September 2019 due to regulatory risk. The stock market later launched Binance.US in partnership with BAM Trading Services, which was approved by the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network to serve US clients.

Binance.US is a separate entity that licenses technology from Binance and receives brand support from the Malta Stock Exchange. Binance.US transaction volumes are said to be only a small fraction of the daily turnover on the main Binance exchange. However, reported volumes are often inflated and do not reflect actual trading activity. It is said that the big stock exchanges continue to publish false figures.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has been seen moving lower towards the level of $440 after the corrective cycle had started. The local low was made at the level of $438.18, but the market keeps moving inside of the descending channel. The outlook remains bullish and the next target for bulls is the swing high located at the level of $476.29. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $459.47. Only if a daily candle closes below $360 level, then the bears will have full control of the market and might push the prices deeper below this level.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $507.71
WR2 - $490.25
WR1 - $463.71

Weekly Pivot - $448.80
WS1 - $421.33
WS2 - $405.66
WS3 - $377.90


Trading Recommendations:
The up trend on the Ethereum continues and the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $500, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $309.61 is broken.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 13 November 2020

Crypto Industry Outlook:
Russia's massive oversight of cryptocurrency transactions seems to have one key downside. Namely, it seems that criminals who use digital resources to carry out illegal transactions do not bear any responsibility.

On Thursday, Russia's Ministry of Finance proposed new changes to the country's cryptocurrency laws to clarify the rules on tax evasion. Under the proposed guidelines, Russians face up to three years in prison for failing to report, at least twice in three years, a transaction worth 45 million rubles ($ 583,000) or more.

Earlier, the Ministry of Finance's draft talked about a three-year prison sentence for anyone who did not report a transaction over 1 million rubles ($ 13,000). Citizens must also report transactions and wallet amounts in excess of 600,000 rubles ($ 7,700) in a calendar year. Failure to register on time could result in a fine of 50,000 rubles ($ 640).

Mikhail Uspensky, a consultant for the Russian law firm Taxology, says the ministry's new guidelines also ignore the so-called "gray cryptocurrency exchanges" that account for the majority of darknet transactions.

"It was decided not to impose criminal liability on them, and the main risk of criminal proceedings should be transferred to ordinary cryptocurrency owners," Uspensky told the Russian media RBC.

Russia's crackdown on cryptocurrency holders is taking place at a time when policymakers are seriously considering the benefits of a central bank's digital currency. The Bank of Russia is expanding its efforts to understand CBDC in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, which had a destabilizing impact on monetary policy.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has hit the level of $475.58 after the triangle breakout, so the bullish pressure is still present. Nevertheless, the price got back to the old supply zone quickly and now is consolidating inside of this zone. The level of $424.65 will now provide the intraday support and the level of $400 will now act as a key technical support. The next target for bulls is seen at the swing high at $466.36 and then $500. Only if a daily candle closes below $360 level, then the bears will have full control of the market.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $594.51
WR2 - $529.18
WR1 - $494.37

Weekly Pivot - $431.37
WS1 - $395.52
WS2 - $336.56
WS3 - $301.67


Trading Recommendations:
The up trend on the Ethereum continues and the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $500, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $309.61 is broken.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 13 November 2020

Crypto Industry Outlook:
Over the 11 years since the inception of the crypto industry, malicious sites have used digital assets for a range of illegal activities, ranging from drug payments to money laundering. The analytical company Blockchain Chainalysis is introducing a new service to help authorities track, store and sell crime-related cryptocurrencies after their recovery. The company calls this initiative the Asset Realization Program.

With the new Chainalysis program, it aims to help customers by putting together and selling confiscated digital funds, closing once illegally used assets and legally putting them back into the ecosystem.

Chainalysis's Asset Realization Program is aimed at government agencies as well as insolvency firms, players representing insolvent entities. However, the program is also open to other interested people. As part of the initiative, Chainalysis has partnered with Asset Reality, a company that already operates in a niche of confiscated assets. The company will work with Chainalysis on a number of processes, including the sale of confiscated funds.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has broken above the $16,000 and made a new yearly high at the level of $16,420 (at the time of writing the article). From time to time the market is consolidating the recent gains in extremely overbought market conditions and then makes another spike up, so the up trend is being continued. The intraday technical support is currently seen at the level of $16,000 and the intraday technical resistance is located at $16,420. As the up trend is still being continued, so the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $17,000.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $19,307
WR2 - $17,576
WR1 - $16,627

Weekly Pivot - $14,868
WS1 - $13,889
WS2 - $12,207
WS3 - $11,247


Trading Recommendations:
Bitcoin is trading at the yearly highs and bulls are in control of the market. The up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $16,000, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $10,000 is broken.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020