Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 30 July 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Crypto fund manager Grayscale Investments managed to increase its assets by another $ 1 billion in less than two weeks.

According to Grayscale on Twitter, the investment firm currently has assets in AUM worth $ 5.1 billion. These funds are mainly held in Grayscale funds for Bitcoin and Ethereum, along with the company's large-cap digital fund. There are also smaller allocations in Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum Classic, Horizen, Litecoin, Stellar Lumens, XRP, and Zcash.

This represents an AUM increase of almost $ 1 billion in just 11 days, according to the July 17 update. The company more than doubled the AUM value of its BCH, from $ 6 million to $ 12.8 million over the period. Grayscale added $ 782 million to his BTC trust, $ 174 million to his ETH trust, $ 12.7 million to his ETC trust, and $ 6.7 million to his LTC trust.

Although the investment firm currently has $ 4.3bn of AUM for Bitcoin, documents filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission show Grayscale has not bought any cryptocurrency since June 19. Grayscale bought 19,879 BTC that day, which at the time seemed to indicate that the company was buying Bitcoin faster than miners could produce blocks.

However, according to a Grayscale report from Q3 2019, 80% of the proceeds in this quarter came from Bitcoin already in circulation, not from recently mined tokens.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has made a possible Double Top price pattern at the level of $11,317.The momentum is still strong and positive, but is decreasing, howaever, in a case of a up wave extension, the next target is seen at the level of $11,855 and $11,500. The nearest technical support is located at the level of $10,855 and $10,430. There is only 2 days until the month's end and the current monthly candle looks bullish.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $11,362
WR2 - $10,720
WR1 - $10,360

Weekly Pivot - $9,731
WS1 - $9,314
WS2 - $8,690
WS3 - $8,269


Trading Recommendations:
The volatility on Bitcoin has significantly increased, but still the larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key long-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for July 29,.2020 - Watch for the breakout of the Bollinger bands contraction for further direction

Technical Analysis:


BTC has been trading sideways at the price of $11,000 Today is FOMC day and I would watch for the brekaout of the Bollinger conraction pattern to confirm further direction.


Trading recommendation:
The upside breakout of the resistance at $11,170 would confirm test of $11,650 and in that case you should watch for buying on the up break.

The downside breakout of support at $10,800 can lead BTC for test of $10,300 and in that case you should watch for selling on the down break




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 29 July 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The Swiss stock exchange SIX, one of the largest in the world, is displaying a new cryptocurrency product, ETP. Named "Bitcoin Capital Active ETP", the new trading product represents the actively managed ETP cryptocurrency, trading Bitcoin with the top 14 altcoins such as Ethereum. Recognized as the world's first actively managed ETP cryptocurrency, it is now listed on the SIX exchange, under the BTCA index.

BTCA is registered with the Swiss crypto investment management company FiCAS and issued by Bitcoin Capital AG. The new ETP product costs CHF 100, the company said.

Mattia Rattaggi, president of the board of FiCAS, explained that the BTCA issue price was driven by the desire to adjust and facilitate market liquidity, concerns about retail trade and portfolio management balancing requirements.

Rattaggi noted that investors now have a new option to invest money in the ETP cryptocurrency that frees up their direct involvement by comparing BTCA to traditional discretionary portfolio management. Rattaggi added that the new product should fit well with the emerging cryptocurrency market.

The list of admitted cryptocurrencies is defined and maintained by the SIX Exchange. The cryptocurrencies that have their own blockchain, high market capitalization and large liquidity pool were selected. The ETP does not cover privacy coins.

In traditional financial markets, the ETP is a type of security that is priced on derivatives and traded on the basis of investment tools such as commodity, currency, share price or interest rate. Unlike crypto exchange funds or cryptocurrency ETFs, ETP cryptos are always 100% secured by assets that have a tracking feature.

The Swiss Exchange SIX has exchanged a lot of ETPs since listing the world's first crypto ETP at the end of 2018. At the time, the exchange was listing Amun's Crypto Basket ETP (HODL), which tracked five major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, Bitcoin Cash, and Litecoin. Since January 2020, SIX Exchange is also actively exhibiting numerous ETP platforms supported by 21Shares.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has made a local pull-back towards the level of $10,430, but the local low was made at the level of $10,531. The bulls are still in control of the market and are trying to break through the local trend line resistance in order to continue the up trend. The next target is seen at the level of $11,855 and $11,500. The nearest technical support is located at the level of $10,855 and $10,430. There is only 3 days until the month's end and the current monthly candle looks bullish.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $11,362
WR2 - $10,720
WR1 - $10,360

Weekly Pivot - $9,731
WS1 - $9,314
WS2 - $8,690
WS3 - $8,269


Trading Recommendations:
The volatility on Bitcoin has significantly increased, but still the larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key long-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 29 July 2020

Crypto Industry News:
According to the research firm Skew, the value of open, as yet unsettled Ethereum futures contracts exceeded $ 1 billion. This event occurs when the price of ETH rises and Ethereum 2.0 gives investors confidence in the long-term growth potential. Futures are considered to be the domain of more sophisticated traders, with commentators suggesting that "smart money" is feeling well which way Ethereum may go next.

The number of open futures contracts on Ethereum has increased by almost 30% since June 20. It is this "open interest" measure that measures the raw amounts that issuers and buyers play on futures contracts with future expiry dates. On the other hand, futures volume measures the value of existing futures contracts (which can be converted like any other derivative) traded during a given period.

The cryptocurrency exchange OKEx currently maintains the largest share of the Ethereum futures market at over USD 290 million. Huobi and BitMEX add over $ 200 million to the pool. In addition, the Huobi exchange recently announced that in the second quarter of this year. plans to launch options trading.

ETH futures contracts grew in early 2020, totaling nearly $ 900 million. It was so before the fears of the coronavirus and the subsequent crash of the US stock market took the world of cryptocurrencies with it. By mid-March, the value of open ETH futures had fallen to less than $ 400 million. Since then, open interest in ETH futures has grown steadily. Recently, it has been additionally fueled by price rises and the expansion of the DeFi sector.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has made a High-Tide Doji candlestick pattern at the top of the last wave up seen at $332.43. Since then the bears have managed to push the price little lower to make a pull-back towards the temporary low located at the level of $305.20. The bulls however reacted quickly and are trying to continue to up trend. The next target is seen at the level of $355 and the nearest technical support is located at the level of $305.20 and $300.00. There is only 3 days until the month's end and the current monthly candle looks bullish.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $435.28
WR2 - $378.51
WR1 - $351.41

Weekly Pivot - $292.40
WS1 - $265.43
WS2 - $206.30
WS3 - $178.38


Trading Recommendations:
The volatility on Ethereum is higher than usual, so all the dynamic moves up and down might reverse quickly. The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $365 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of $174.82.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for July 28,.2020 - Strong upside condition and potential for test of $12.000

Technical analysis:



Trading recommendation:
The main cause of the strong upside momentum was the breakout of the contraction and multi-day consolidation in the background.




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 28 July 2020

Crypto Industry News:
MakerDAO (MKR), the staple protocol for decentralized finance on Ethereum, has hit a new record total value locked in its holdings. According to Defipulse data, MakerDAO's collateral is now just over $ 1 billion after the steep growth that began on July 22.

Most of this increase is due to the strong price increase of Ethereum, which is still the most used hedging asset for DAI. Since July 22, the amount of ETH invested in Maker has increased by approximately 13%, while the value of the dollar has increased by nearly 60%.

The increase in ETH supply is no coincidence as the Maker community voted in favor of two separate proposals to raise the "debt ceiling" for ETH on 17 and 20 July. Together they increased the amount of DAI that could be knocked out in ETH from 160 million to 220 million. According to Daistats.com, the new cap is almost full as 213 million DAI are now minted with Ether.

From around July 2, DAI has become the preferred asset to power the COMP token. At one point, more than $ 800 million was borrowed in DAI, even though the total supply was only $ 200 million. The discrepancy between the two numbers is due to recursive borrowing. COMP farmers will deliver DAI to Compound, then borrow 75% of the tokens provided and re-deliver them. Repeating this process enough times gives you about a 3x leverage, increasing the total value of the compound locked in the process.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has made the recent swing high at the level of $332.43, but the bulls do not seem to stop just yet as the momentum is still strong and positive despite the overbought market conditions. It is worth to notice, that there is a High-Tide Doji candlestick pattern made at the top of the recent rally, so the market might position itself for a quick pull-back. The next target is seen at the level of $355 and the nearest technical support is located at the level of $320.92 and $300.00. There is only 4 days until the month's end and the current monthly candle looks bullish.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $435.28
WR2 - $378.51
WR1 - $351.41

Weekly Pivot - $292.40
WS1 - $265.43
WS2 - $206.30
WS3 - $178.38


Trading Recommendations:
The volatility on Ethereum is higher than usual, so all the dynamic moves up and down might reverse quickly. The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $365 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of $174.82.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 28 July 2020

Crypto Industry News:
US residents who invested their first stimulus checks in Bitcoin, which they received from US authorities as compensation for the coronavirus situation, saw a profit of 45.5%, from $ 1,200 in April to around $ 1,746 at the time of writing, when the cryptocurrency surpassed worth $ 10,200.

In a July 26 interview Larry Kudlow, a White House economic advisor, confirmed that Americans will receive another check for $ 1,200 as part of a stimulus package worth about $ 1 trillion, first announced on July 23.

However, according to the media, many Americans report that they have not received the first checks that the US Treasury Department began issuing in late March. The second payments will be made in August, according to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, but this could potentially mean for some that they will not receive government aid until November if the process is the same.

Checks are designed to ease the economic hardship faced by many US residents who have lost their jobs or experience significantly lower incomes as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. Many Americans may have chosen to invest their first payment not in, for example, delaying eviction or replenishing their income - if needed - but in cryptocurrency. Coinbase's Brian Armstrong found that $ 1,200 in deposits and purchases on the stock exchange has quadrupled this month.

Based on online responses to the news that another check is imminent, coupled with Bitcoin's recent rise in value to over $ 11,200, some cryptocurrency traders may think that another $ 1,200 investment is not a bad idea. When US officials first announced a $ 1 trillion stimulus package on July 23, the price of BTC surpassed $ 9,500, breaking an extremely long stretch of low volatility between $ 9,000 and $ 9,500.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has broken above the $11,000 level and made a new local high at the level of $11,318. The bulls do not seem to stop just yet as the momentum is still strong and positive despite the overbought market conditions. The next target is seen at the level of $11,855 and $11,500. The nearest technical support is located at the level of $10,855 and $10,430. There is only 3 days until the month's end and the current monthly candle looks bullish.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $11,362
WR2 - $10,720
WR1 - $10,360

Weekly Pivot - $9,731
WS1 - $9,314
WS2 - $8,690
WS3 - $8,269


Trading Recommendations:
The volatility on Bitcoin has significantly increased, but still the larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key long-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 27 July 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Gas consumption and Ethereum fees are increasing every day. Although gas charges are not the highest ever (they were in 2018), they have risen sharply since mid-May. The gas charge is used to charge the costs to be brought to the network to execute a specific transaction, and as it increased, users paid higher transaction fees.

According to Wilson Withiam, a Messari researcher, Ethereum "was able to break its previous annual record of total gas consumption in domestic units." This rising cost of gas had two-sided significance for Ethereum, namely on the one hand it meant an increase, and on the other hand it increased the network security budget, the researcher notes. Gas was recorded by ATH in 2018 - these charges are currently only 2,000 ETH lower and could set a new record.

Mining revenues have also risen sharply in the past two months, reaching an all-time high. According to data provided by Glassnode, miners' toll revenues have reached a new peak. The hourly chart suggested that more than a third of ETH miners' revenues came from fees rather than block subsidies. The + 25% sign is a good jump from less than 5% in April. Although miners' fee income increased, this had a negative effect on the multiple of the FRM fee ratio.

FRM relates to blockchain security. Standing at the lower figure between 0 and 10, the FRM suggested that Ethereum could maintain its security budget (miners' income) and not have to rely on an inflation subsidy. Currently, FRM has reached 21.51. In the near future, Ethereum will require high inflation through block award subsidies in order to maintain the current security budget.

Ethereum is stuck in a problem loop: the high price of gas, which also affects transaction fees. DeFi and Tether contributed to the growth of Ethereum - they contributed to user traffic on the network as the daily use of gas also reached an all-time high. However, the high fee scares off potential users, which is not a good sign for adoption.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has broken above the $300 level which was the key mid-term technical and psychological level for market participants. The recent swing high was made at the level of $328.70, but the bulls do not seem to stop just yet as the momentum is still strong and positive despite the overbought market conditions. The next target is seen at the level of $355 and the nearest technical support is located at the level of $320.92 and $300.00. There is only 4 days until the month's end and the current monthly candle looks bullish.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $435.28
WR2 - $378.51
WR1 - $351.41

Weekly Pivot - $292.40
WS1 - $265.43
WS2 - $206.30
WS3 - $178.38


Trading Recommendations:
The volatility on Ethereum is higher than usual, so all the dynamic moves up and down might reverse quickly. The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $365 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of $174.82.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 27 July 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The Malaysian Securities Commission (SC) is planning a regulatory framework for wallet providers to be built into existing cryptocurrency laws.

In an announcement published, SC said it wanted to "complement" its existing digital asset exchange and IEO framework by including wallet providers. While the committee did not provide details of what the new framework might look like, such actors play an important role in protecting digital assets on behalf of clients, it said. Digital asset portfolio service providers or interested parties are encouraged to contact the committee to discuss ongoing business activities or provide feedback on the structure. Interested parties should make an appointment before August 14, 2020.

After the sunset date, the legal framework for wallet providers will be added to the national guidelines for digital assets.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has broken above the $10,000 level which was the key mid-term technical and psychological level for market participants. The recent swing high was made at the level of $10,282, but the bulls do not seem to stop just yet as the momentum is still strong and positive despite the overbought market conditions. The next target is seen at the level of $10,343 and $10,430. The nearest technical support is located at the level of $10,000, $9,956 and $9,922. There is only 4 days until the month's end and the current monthly candle looks bullish.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $11,362
WR2 - $10,720
WR1 - $10,360

Weekly Pivot - $9,731
WS1 - $9,314
WS2 - $8,690
WS3 - $8,269


Trading Recommendations:
The volatility on Bitcoin has significantly increased, but still the larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key long-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 24 July 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Steve Wozniak's lawyers and 17 others who have suffered from Bitcoin scams on YouTube have sued the platform and parent company Google for not taking swift action to ban the content.

According to a statement from the law firm Cotchett, Pitre & McCarthy, Google and its subsidiary YouTube have failed to protect users from fraudulent Bitcoin channels featuring photos and videos of Wozniak and other celebrities. Hijacked channels launch giveaway scams stating that anyone who sends cryptocurrencies to a specific address will receive significantly more cryptocurrencies in return when in fact they will not receive anything.

"If YouTube was acting fast to contain it to a reasonable degree, we wouldn't be here right now. YouTube, like Google, appears to rely on algorithms, and no special efforts have been made requiring special software for this type of criminal activity. If a crime is committed, you must be able to reach people who can stop it. Which person will see such posts and not immediately block them as criminal?" - said Wozniak.

According to Joe Cotchett, one of Cotchett's partners Pitre & McCarthy, YouTube "knowingly allowed Bitcoin scams for months, promoted and profited from it by selling targeted advertising."

The lawsuit concerns Wozniak and 17 others from the United States, Canada, Great Britain, Japan, Malaysia, China and Europe who were victims of the fraud.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has made another up candle during the move and the local high was made at the level of $9,625, which is above the technical resistance located at the level of $9,530. Currently, the market is consolidating the recent gains around the level of $9,470. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $9,290. If violated, the next one is located at the level of $9,202. Please notice, that bulls might continue the rally towards the level of $10,000 before any significant pull-back.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $9,569
WR2 - $9,411
WR1 - $9,271

Weekly Pivot - $9,117
WS1 - $8,968
WS2 - $8,812
WS3 - $8,862


Trading Recommendations:
The volatility on Bitcoin has been subdued for more than two months now, so the larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020