Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for December 14, 2021

Crypto Industry News:

The total volume of Bitcoin in circulation reached a significant milestone this morning, with 90% of the total maximum supply being mined.

Current figures show that Bitcoin in circulation has reached 18,899 million, which means that only 10% of the total supply is left to be mined. While it took around 12 years to mine the first 90% of BTC, the rest will take a little longer.

Bitcoin's limit is 21 million coins set by its anonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto. This restriction is written in the Bitcoin source code and enforced by network nodes. Bitcoin's supply cap is critical to its value proposition as a currency and investment tool.

Since the Bitcoin blockchain only creates new BTC as a reward for miners verifying new blocks, halving ensures that less Bitcoin is produced as the total supply in circulation increases. As of May 2020, miners have earned 6.25 BTC for each new block verified. This rate will drop to 3.125 BTC per block in the next halving in 2024.

By 2040, the block reward will be reduced to less than 0.2 BTC with only 80,000 Bitcoins left to be won. Mining the last Bitcoin will take nearly 40 years.

Bitcoin's price started the week with a new $ 50,000 rejection. This is almost a 30% decrease from the all-time high of $ 68,789 in November 10th.


Technical Market Outlook

The BTC/USD pair has made a new local low at the level of $45, 577 as the price is getting away from the 61% Fibonacci retracement level. The nearest technical resistance is located at the level of $51,913 (Pin Bar high) and $53,333. The momentum is picking up from the oversold conditions, currently hovering just below the level of fifty on the RSI (14) indicator. Despite the recent complex and time consuming corrective decline in form of ABCxABCxABC pattern, the larger time frame trend remains up and only a clear and sustained breakout below the wave C low at $41,678 would change the outlook to bearish again.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $56,908
WR2 - $54,309
WR1 - $52,119

Weekly Pivot - $49,669
WS1 - $47,511
WS2 - $44,768
WS3 - $42,652


Trading Outlook:
The ABCxABCxABC complex corrective cycle might be terminated at the level of $41,678 and the market is ready to continue the up trend. According to the long-term charts the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $39,474 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $39,000 would be considered as a long-term trend change due to the lower low placement).








Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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