Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Bitcoin's $100,000 forecast is not yet canceled says Bloomberg's McGlone

Bitcoin on Thursday still fell to the lower border of the flat with support near $47,000 and local resistance near $52,000. And on Friday, despite all the attempts, it still cannot rise higher.

Even the U.S. inflation data, which showed that the CPI rose at the fastest pace in about 40 years, prevented the main cryptocurrency from recovering.

Against this background, the expected scenarios for BTCUSD do not change. Now Bitcoin will either turn up in the corridor or break through its lower border. Consolidation below $47,000 will bring it back into the $40,000 - $42,000 area per coin.


$100,000 PER BITCOIN CANCELED BY THE END OF THE YEAR

There are about 20 days left until the end of the year. And the likelihood that the $100,000 target will be reached by the end of December is diminishing every day. It will be nice if the main cryptocurrency holds at least 50,000.

Against this background, experts who were expecting a new round record high are beginning to abandon their $100,000 forecasts. And some are already looking forward to reaching that target in 2022.

In fact, predicting the timing of the forecast on the market is a thankless task. Therefore, there is nothing wrong with a delay. The main thing is to track trends and understand targets.


BLOOMBERG'S MIKE MCGLONE SHIFTS HIS FORECAST

Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone tweeted that 2022 will be a good year for Bitcoin and gold. He believes that due to rising inflation, both assets will grow, reaching $100,000 and $2,000, respectively.

According to McGlone, this rising inflationary pressure will also have an impact on the dynamics of commodity assets and stocks. However, this inflation rate could help lift Bitcoin quotes to new heights. Investors, as we've discussed many times before, will flee traditional assets.

"$100,000 for Bitcoin, $50 for oil, $2,000 for gold?" the expert asks.

He also noted that he continued that "peaks in commodity prices and declining long-term Treasury yields indicate risks of a resurgence of deflationary forces in 2022."


BORING FRIDAY: SHIFTING THE FOCUS TO THE LONG TERM
The news background on Friday is meager, there is nothing significant for the cryptocurrency. And although everything is clear in terms of technology and it remains only to wait, it is worth paying attention to long-term factors. For example, consider seven drivers for cryptocurrency growth in 2022.








Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin continues to gain popularity

Bitcoin and Ethereum fell after failing to break above large resistance levels. Now, the two are groping at the lower border of the side channel, where the next accumulation of major players will take place.



But it is undeniable that Bitcoin is gaining more and more popularity, thanks to businesses and governments using it as a means of payment. Just recently, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis proposed a program to allow businesses to pay government fees in digital currency. He said the state should launch pilot programs to explore the use of blockchain technology for vehicles and Medicaid payments. He also said his doors are open for all crypto enthusiasts and that he is waiting for everyone in South Florida.

Miami Mayor Francis Suarez has also been actively bringing crypto projects to the region and has advocated for crypto-friendly policies for several months, at least locally. Last month, he even announced that he is set to receive his next salary in bitcoins, and revealed that he is working on a plan to pay salaries to more than 4,000 city officials in cryptocurrency. He also promised that city residents will be able to pay taxes in bitcoins.

New York Mayor Eric Adams also said in an interview that he is exploring ways in which the people working in the city could be paid directly in bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies. He also mentioned that he will receive his first three salaries in bitcoins.

On a different note, the boom in Bitcoin mining in Kazakhstan ended even faster than it began. Limited energy supply has forced the government to impose large restrictions on energy-intensive industries. According to expert opinion polls, there is currently zero potential for bitcoin mining in Kazakhstan. The country became one of the world leaders in attracting bitcoin miners early this year, after China opposed the practice and completely banned Bitcoin and mining.



All those led to the formation of a side channel, with $ 51,660 being the key level. A lot depends on that area because a breakout will lead to a jump to $ 55,730 and $ 59,400. Meanwhile, a drop below $ 46.900 will push the quote lower, to $ 42.300 and $ 46.900.



In Ethereum, the key level is $ 4,404 and its breakdown will lead to a further rise to $ 4,647 and $ 4,860. Meanwhile, a drop below $ 4,140 will provoke a decrease to $ 3,912 and quite possibly to $ 3,680.







Jakub Novak
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Crypto market update for December 10, 2021



ANALYSTS HOPE THE UPTREND CONTINUES, BUT BITCOIN IS FALLING AGAIN
On December 9, BTC fell by $1,500. The coin is likely to extend its downward movement that began on November 10. Last Saturday, the flagship cryptocurrency tumbled by $15,000 and then recouped half of its losses. For the next several days, the digital asset showed growth. On Thursday, however, the quote started to go down again. Many crypto analysts say long-term and large investors bought out all falls and corrections, which helped maintain the uptrend. I'd like to point out that the majority of forecasts for Bitcoin are usually bullish. For example, analyst PlanB with his Stock-to-Flow model has confirmed that things do not always go according to the plan, and Bitcoin can not only grow, but also decline. I will conduct wave analysis a bit later. But it is clearly seen that the last wave is stronger and deeper even without the analysis. The current size of the wave is $27,000, which is about one-third of the coin's highest level, and I am not sure its formation has been completed. So, it seems that a new downtrend section is about to begin.


Louis Navellier assumes BTC could plunge by 80%
Many analysts and investors believe that Bitcoin will eventually hit the $100,000 mark. The digital asset was expected to touch it by the end of 2021. Now everyone hopes it will happen in March 2022. However, Louis Navellier, chairman of Navellier & Associates, has a completely different view. Navellier is concerned about the hype around the world's first cryptocurrency. The investor suggests the BTC bubble could burst any time soon as the US Federal Reserve has started the winddown of the QE program and may well end it several months earlier than expected. "The more the Fed tapers, the more volatility we should see in both stocks and bonds — and yes, Bitcoin, too," he explained. "I would say that a drop below $46,000 (200-day moving average) would be a bearish signal. To complete the "double top" pattern, Bitcoin must fall to $28,500, and such a decline may indicate a fall below $10,000. This is a decline of 80% and Bitcoin has repeatedly demonstrated this behavior," the investor said.



The current uptrend structure still looks clear. The wave layout cleared up after the instrument went above the high of Wave 3. On the chart, there is now an impulsive 5-wave structure that began to form on July 20. However, over the past three weeks, the price has been pulling back from the highs, indicating the completion of Wave 5. This wave looks shorter. After plummeting by $27,000, the quote went up and the corrective wave (b) was formed. Therefore, the price is likely to rise within this wave with targets at around $52,077 and $55,295, in line with the 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci levels of wave (a). After the completion of this wave, a new descending wave (c) may start to form, with its low being well below the level of $41,700. If the quote touches this mark, the uptrend is likely to reverse, marking the beginning of a downtrend.





Chin Zhao
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Trading signal for Bitcoin Cash (BCH) on December 10 - 11, 2021: buy above $437,50 (3/8)



On December 4, Bitcoin Cash fell to the level of January 1, registering a low of 347.30. From that price level, BCH is rebounding and has recovered more than 40%. The psychological level of 500.00 is acting as a strong resistance. Below this level, it is expected to continue under downward pressure towards 2/8 of a Murray around 375.00

Bitcoin's price has entered a steady recovery phase after the recent sudden drop on December 4. This has helped BCH to rebound. However, it is likely to be part of a technical correction to resume its downtrend.

In the daily chart, we can see that BCH is trading within a downtrend channel. In the next few hours, a technical rebound is expected towards the top of the bearish channel.

The 3/8 Murray support at 437.50 will be a good opportunity to buy with targets at 500.00. The top of the bearish channel will continue to act as a strong barrier preventing BCH from appreciating. So, around this level of 500.00, it will be a good opportunity to sell with targets at 375.00.

The eagle indicator is testing the 5-point level which represents an imminent sign of a technical rebound for the next few days. Therefore, you can buy above 437.00 this is the 3/8 level which represents a range zone.

The SMA of 21 and the EMA of 200 are located above the current price, which adds a bearish tone to BCH. If it approaches 536.40 in the next few days, it will be a good opportunity to sell.

If BTC rallies and trades above 60,000, it will give BCH momentum to reach the resistance of 200 EMA located at 587.52. As long as BTC continues to trade below 50,000, BCH will remain under downward pressure and it is likely to fall to the support of 375.00.


Support and Resistance Levels for December 10 - 13, 2021
Resistance (3) 495,86
Resistance (2) 475,01
Resistance (1) 462,24

Support (1) 440,38
Support (2) 426,60
Support (3) 405,75


A trading tip for BCH on December 10 - 13, 2021

Buy above 437,50 (3/8) with take profit at 500,00 (4/8), stop loss below 405,20.






Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Anthony Scaramucci: In near future, US to develop uniform rules, protecting crypto market



SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci said that in the near future the US will develop uniform rules for the crypto market, which will protect it.

Scaramucci also believes that bitcoin, ether, and Solana have great prospects in 2022. Scaramucci is bullish on bitcoin and ethereum. Besides, the former White House communications director is confident that more well-known global corporations will buy these digital assets.

He stated this position during his interview earlier in the day, where he also expressed his view on future innovations. Besides, he advised investors to focus on and buy Microstrategy and Coinbase stocks immediately.

Anthony Scaramucci is confident that the market is now fixing profits and therefore stagnation is currently observed. He also noted that many coins have grown at least 6 times compared to the situation last year.

Scaramucci has also repeatedly stated that bitcoin will supplant gold as the preferred means of savings and protection against inflation.

Bitcoin has excellent prospects and better specifications. Bitcoin holders can store their funds as well as transfer them securely due to the basic dlt technology.

He also noticed that about 64% of gold is already mined and bitcoin has a limited supply of 21 million. However, bitcoin will be at least 10 times better than gold.

Besides, Anthony Scaramucci is sure that bitcoin will grow to $500,000 by the end of 2025 due to its unique features, scarcity, and protective qualities that investors focus on during inflation.

Scaramucci is very positive about the fact that the House Financial Services Committee is allowing cryptocurrency CEOs to speak openly and discuss various psychological issues in public. Moreover, it is a considerable progress, which could favour the development of the US crypto market.







Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Bitcoin still under selling pressure

The price of Bitcoin is trading at 48,475.44 at the time of writing. The pressure remains high as the crypto failed to take out a strong resistance level. In the short term, we cannot exclude a deeper drop. Actually, a new downside movement was somehow expected after its rebound. BTC/USD could come back down to test and retest the near-term downside obstacles trying to accumulate more bullish energy or to attract more buyers.

Today, BTC/USD dropped by 5.37%, from 50,839.01 daily high to 48,111 today's low. Being in the seller's territory, Bitcoin could approach and reach new lows.

BTC/USD Vulnerable To Slide Further!



As you can see on the h4 chart, the price failed to stabilize above the descending pitchfrok's median line (ML) and above the weekly pivot point (50,245.48) signaling that the bulls are exhausted.

The bias remains bearish as long as it stays under the median line which represented a dynamic resistance. Also, its failure to stabilize above the 50,000 psychological level signaled that the sellers are still strong.


BTC/USD Outlook!

Bitcoin could come back down towards 47,111 and 46,201 former lows after being rejected by the median line (ml). This could be only a temporary decline. It's hard to believe that it will come back to reach 41,967.50 lower low. In the short term, it could move sideways before trying to print a new swing higher.






Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Bitcoin Loses Hope To Reach High In December: How Evergrande Default Can Help BTC Resume Bullish Rally?

Bitcoin still looks weak and, judging by the movement of technical indicators, is more inclined to move towards the lower part of the current fluctuation area. The asset lacks a powerful upward momentum and fundamental prerequisites for growth. Investors are behaving with restraint towards BTC due to the gradual curtailment of the economic stimulus program in the U.S., which was the main catalyst for the growth of the coin's quotes in October-November 2021. However, an event has occurred on the world stage that can help Bitcoin resume its long-term upward movement.

We are talking about the official statement of the representatives of the developer Evergrande regarding the inability to fulfill debt obligations. The market reacted to the official statement of the company with restraint, since the main reaction of investors to the event was played back in November. Despite this, many experts are already predicting the catastrophic consequences of the bankruptcy of the developer with a $300 billion debt. Among the endless stream of apocalyptic assumptions about the future of the Chinese economy, the most interesting for me is the thesis about the beginning of a new debt crisis.

If you dive into the history of the recent past, you can see a pattern that Bitcoin sets a new historical record whenever the crisis in China reaches its peak. I assume that Evergrande's debt will be restructured and partially repaid with the help of state aid and the government bond market. However, payments of even small amounts on such a massive debt will definitely affect the global economy, and advanced states will also not avoid financial participation in the repayment of obligations.

All this will cause a global surge in inflation and excitement among investors of classic financial instruments. With this in mind, I expect an increase in interest in high-risk assets.



Given the correlation between Bitcoin rallies and periods of exacerbation of inflation, I assume that in the long term, repayment of the developer's debt will be the catalyst for a new bullish rally. Moreover, I expect a significant expansion of the current institutional audience of cryptocurrencies and the involvement of more public and private pension funds.

In 2021, we should not expect a significant increase in the value of the asset, but in 2022 the coin can start with the renewal of the ATH, due to the launch of bankruptcy proceedings or debt restructuring. It is also important to note that if a spot ETF for BTC is adopted at the beginning of 2022, then we can expect a new maximum to be set at the end of 2022 at the level of $150k-$200k.

As of 11:00 UTC, the main cryptocurrency continues to trade in the range of $40k-$50k. At the same time, technical indicators indicate pressure from sellers. The MACD is moving sideways on a flat, and the stochastic has formed a bearish intersection and continues to fall. By the movement of metrics, you can see that the price tends to the lower boundary of the area, which runs around $42k.

The candle analysis also indicates a decline in the price: the reaction of bulls to the impulse drop was extremely weak. This is evidenced by the uncertain bullish candles formed after the fall. At the same time, the pulse candle of the price drop has a long lower wick, which indicates a high probability of a repeated retest of the local minimum. With this in mind, I believe that before a full-fledged attempt to go beyond the $40k-$50k range, BTC/USD quotes will once again fall below $45k.








Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Technical analysis on XRPUSD.

At the end of November we warned XRPUSD bulls that price was forming a bearish descending triangle pattern and that a break below $1 would be an added bearish signal that could push price towards $0.80 or even lower.



Blue rectangle - resistance

Almost two days later price broke below support and provided a bearish signal. Price back tested the blue resistance area that was once support but now remains resistance. The rejection that followed, pushed prices towards $0.60 surpassing our initial pull back targets. Price is now approaching $0,91 and although trend technically remains bearish, bulls have a lot of hopes of a major reversal in play. For this bullish scenario to hold, price must remain above $0.60 otherwise there is danger of pushing as low as $0.40-$0.20. Breaking above $1 would also be an important bullish signal.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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BTC analysis for December 09,.2021 - Downside continuation in the play

Technical Analysis:




BTC has been trading downside as like I expected. There is potential for the downside movement towards next support levels.


Trading recommendation:
Due to strong downside cycle in the background ,I see potential for the downside continuation towards next reference points.

Watch for selling opportunities on the rallies with the downside objectives at $47,285 and $42,200.

Key resistance is set at the price of $52,000






Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Bitcoin: seven drivers for cryptocurrency growth in 2022


Currently, bitcoin's consolidation corridor remains between support near $47,000 and local resistance around $52,000. The price can now reach its lower boundary, and if it holds the major cryptocurrency, an upward rebound is possible.

It is hard to predict how long the consolidation of BTC/USD will last, as well as whether bitcoin will hit $42,000 per coin again. However, it is possible to assess the catalysts that may determine the direction of the main currency in the medium term and the whole market.


SEVEN KEY DRIVERS FOR RISING CRYPTOCURRENCY MARKET

The latest cryptocurrency rally was caused by the approval of bitcoin futures ETFs and investors' decision to avoid inflation. Popular cryptanalyst Lark Davis provides seven reasons for optimism that can be considered as drivers of future growth for both bitcoin and the altcoins, following it. Let's analyze them.


1. SEC may approve spot bitcoin ETF

The US SEC has rejected spot bitcoin exchange traded funds so far. Chairman Gary Gensler attributes the rejection to concerns about market manipulation. However, the pressure on the SEC is increasing as even former lawmakers are urging the regulator to finally make a decision, as many funds, like Fidelity, are moving abroad.

Lark Davis believes a spot bitcoin ETF is likely to emerge in 2022, and until then, the market is optimistic on expectations.

By comparison, the approval of a spot gold ETF was preceded by a strong rally, followed by a year of declining prices. After that, the price resumed its growth and started a multi-year megarally.


2. Bull rally cycles become longer

Davis mentions that bull rally cycles become longer as the cryptocurrency market matures and more institutional money flows in it. Unlike previous cycles, which lasted 1-1.5 years, this cycle could last until 2022.


3. Ethereum network update

There is growing optimism about the Ethereum network changing from Proof-of-Work (PoW) to Proof-of-Stake (PoS). The expected deadline for this process is around mid-2022. Additional upgrades, such as triple halving and limited segmentation deployment, could increase the number of transactions in the Ethereum blockchain by 3-4 times.


4. Good opportunities for Ethereum competitors to grow

Ethereum competitors such as Polkadot (DOT) and Cardano (ADA) are gaining more prominence in the market. Besides, other projects such as Polygon, ETH L2, Avalanche and Solana will continue to grow.


5. NFT to further rise

Along with DeFi, non interchangeable tokens (NFTs) have attracted a lot of public attention this year. Some major global brands have been actively pursuing NFT opportunities recently. Davis believes NFTs could become the key point of access for millions of people to cryptocurrency.


6. Games and metaverse to expand

Gaming and the metaverse will likely become two of the largest industries in the next decade. Cryptoprojects operating in this area will eventually become widespread.


7. Huge capital from institutionalists is emerging to market

Finally, a major factor in the sustainability of the cryptocurrency market and growing demand is institutional interest in cryptocurrencies. With inflation steadily rising, they will have no choice but to invest in digital coins, as it is the only way to increase returns.








Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021