Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Wave analysis of BTC/USD for November 30, 2021


BTC/USD is analyzed on the hourly chart.

BTC/USD, H1:


According to the H1 chart, the downward zigzag pattern is currently forming. The bearish wave A in its structure has already been completed. It has the shape of a five-wave impulse and consists of 5 sub-waves.

So, the last ascending wave indicates a bullish correction (B). It is assumed to be in the shape of a simple zigzag (A-B-C). At this point, an impulse wave (A) and a corrective wave (B) could have been completed. Accordingly, wave C may head upwards soon. It may turn into an impulse wave or have a shape of a finite diagonal.

Wave C could end at around 61215.00. At this level, there will be a 50% correction (B) from the bearish wave (A). There is a high likelihood that this mark will be reached.

Long positions could be opened as soon as a correction (B) ends.


Trading recommendations: a Take-profit order could be set at 61215.00. Long positions could be opened from the current level.





Roman Onegin
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for November 30, 2021


Crypto Industry News:
Swiss Post announced its "Crypto Stamping" initiative in September when it was presented as an attempt to "bridge the gap between the physical and digital worlds of philately." A state-owned company has teamed up with blockchain service provider Inacta to produce the first such stamp.

When the crypto stamp was launched on Thursday morning, the demand was so high that it "temporarily led to technical problems on postshop.ch," Swiss Post announced. This happened after many people interested in purchasing the stamp had contacted the post office in recent weeks, according to a spokesman quoted by Swissinfo.

The publication states that a cryptocurrency stamp consists of two parts - a physical one, which can be purchased for 8.90 Swiss francs ($ 9.50), and a corresponding digital image showing one of the 13 patterns. Each physical seal provides access to a digital representation stored on the blockchain that can be collected and traded.

At first glance, the Swiss Crypto Stamp looks like a regular stamp. It is self-adhesive, shows the Matterhorn and the moon against a blue background, and has a face value of 8.90 CHF. Owners can use it for postage just like any other stamp.

Over the past few years, Switzerland has become the premier cryptocurrency-friendly destination in Europe. Hundreds of blockchain companies are based or represented in the Swiss crypto valley based in the canton of Zug. State-owned enterprises are also looking for involvement in the crypto space.


Technical Market Outlook

After the ABCxABC complex corrective pattern might have been completed at the level of $3,910, the ETH/USD pair has bounced towards the short-term trend line resistance seen around the level of $4,481. The recent local high was made at the level of $4,375, but in order to confirm the up trend continuation bulls must break through the wave B high located at $4,555. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $4,185 and $4,121. The larger time frame trend is still up.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $5,126
WR2 - $4,890
WR1 - $4,581

Weekly Pivot - $4,237
WS1 - $3,938
WS2 - $3,595
WS3 - $3,100


Trading Outlook:
The ABCxABC complex corrective cycle might be terminated, so the next long-term target for ETH is seen at the level of $5,000. Nevertheless, in order to continue the long-term up trend, the price can not close below the technical support at the level of $2,906. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key long-term technical support for bulls. The level of $3,677 is the key mid-term technical support for bulls.








Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for November 30, 2021


Crypto Industry News:
While Bitcoin's position as a hedge against inflation continues to attract investors, new data shows a shift in sentiment. This is happening as Ethereum and other cryptocurrency products are gaining momentum against the falling Bitcoin AUM (Assets Under Management).

BTC assets under management fell 9.5% to $ 48.7bn in November, the biggest monthly decline since July. On the other hand, altcoin-based crypto funds like ETH saw AUM grow 5.4% to $ 16.6 billion.

Total AUM in all digital asset investment products fell 5.5% to $ 70m, coinciding with an ongoing bear market since Bitcoin hit its all-time high above $ 65,000.

Following a decline of 9.5%, the Bitcoin AUM market represents 70.6% of the total AUM share. However, AUM Ethereum grew 5.4% to $ 16.6 billion, while AUM representing other crypto assets grew by $ 2.6 billion.

Weekly flows to Bitcoin-based products in November averaged $ 94.4 million, according to the report. Of the remaining $ 67.8 million, Ethereum-based products contributed approximately $ 24.4 million, while Cardano and Tron-based products amounted to $ 10.7 million and $ 10.5 million, respectively.

US giant Morgan Stanley said it has increased its exposure to Bitcoin by purchasing shares of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust. Morgan Stanley's recent filing with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) showed a 63% increase in the stake of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). With a market price of nearly $ 45, the overall crypto-focused Morgan Stanley portfolio exceeds $ 300 million, mostly geared towards exposure to BTC with no direct crypto investments.


Technical Market Outlook

After the ABCxABC complex corrective pattern might have been completed at the level of $53,331 the BTC/USD pair has bounced towards the wave B high seen at $59,403. The bulls are ready to resume the up trend again. The recent local high was made at the level of $58,244, but in order to confirm the up trend continuation bulls must break through the wave X high located at $60,013. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $55,748 and $53,306. The larger time frame trend is still up.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $65,476
WR2 - $62,564
WR1 - $59,328

Weekly Pivot - $56,242
WS1 - $53,008
WS2 - $49,857
WS3 - $46,541


Trading Outlook:
The ABCxABC complex corrective cycle might be terminated. According to the long-term charts the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $52,943 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $52,000).








Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin regains ground following Black-Friday selloff



On Monday, the largest digital asset rose as much as 3.4% during the session to trade around $58,266. Other so-called alternative coins such as Polkadot and Dogecoin also showed gains.

Friday's brutal sell-off saw investors flee a number of riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin posting its worst day in about two months. This came amid the announcement of a new coronavirus variant named omicron, which has been discovered in southern Africa and which experts are now trying to understand. This decline saw Bitcoin fall 20% below the record high reached earlier in November. For many strategists, this is an indication of the coin's tendency to closely track the movements of the broader stock market.

"It highlights that Bitcoin is a risk-on/risk-off asset," said Matt Maley, chief market strategist for Miller Tabak + Co.

Bitcoin has been under pressure since hitting a high of around $69,000 per coin on November 10 on enthusiasm over the first US exchange-traded fund linked to futures on the digital asset. However, a multitude of factors has weighed on returns since then, including increased regulatory risks and the fact that many tokens have grown very quickly in a short period of time. Maley says Bitcoin's recent moves also show that if the Federal Reserve withdraws its stimulus more aggressively next year, the cryptocurrency could become vulnerable.

Fiona Cincotta, the senior financial markets analyst at City Index, says Bitcoin does tend to act like a riskier asset that tracks moves in the stock market. However, there are times when that relationship isn't as strong, for instance, when hotter-than-expected inflationary prints come through, Bitcoin can hold up well during those periods.

"So there are times when I think Bitcoin does act as a riskier asset and it traces the stock market higher, but there are times as well when that's not necessarily the case. It does have other contributing factors which drive it," she said.

Worried traders are again turning to technicals for clues as to where certain cryptocurrencies could head next. On Sunday, Bitcoin rebounded from its 100-day moving average, an intermediate-term trendline. Meanwhile, Ethereum rose from its 50-day moving average on Monday, which many chart watchers see as bullish development.


Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities Inc., says he was surprised by Bitcoin's Friday selloff based on the coronavirus news. He believes it seems there is a group of aggressive risk-takers who own crypto and likely also own some high-flying tech stocks.

"They could be forced to sell one or the other if they move in tandem. Bitcoin going up relieves that pressure. Now that we've had what seemed like a likely rally - everyone dismissing omicron fears - we can see if it lasts," he added.






Andrey Shevchenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Cryptocurrency market update for November 30, 2021



THE THIRD ATTEMPT TO BREAK THROUGH THE $56,361 MARK WAS SUCCESSFUL

Bitcoin dropped by $5,000 on Friday, November 26, after the whole world was shocked by the information about the new strain of the coronavirus, named Omicron, which could be potentially more dangerous than the Delta strain and all other known strains of the coronavirus. It was thanks to this fall that a successful attempt was made to break through the $56,361 mark, which corresponds to 76.4% Fibonacci level.

It seems that big investors and long-term investors are still holding the course profitable for them. It hardly needs to be said that it is profitable for them as high as possible. However, the entire recent decline of $15,000 can hardly be interpreted as wave 4. And if it really isn't wave 4, then the instrument began building a new bearish wave as part of a new downward trend segment. In the case of Bitcoin, everything can change in the blink of an eye, but the current wave pattern speaks of such an option.


CHINA CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN CRYPTO OVERSIGHT

China has decided not only to prohibit any cryptocurrencies and operations in the country but is also going to track any cryptocurrency transactions that are now illegal. According to the Chinese government, cryptocurrencies pose a threat to national security and financial stability, so they need to be fought at the state level. The system being developed will be able to track not only the transactions themselves, but also identify the sender and recipient of digital assets.

If China is compelled to prohibit, America, on the contrary, will not. There are recent reports that the United States may also significantly tighten supervision of cryptocurrencies and digital assets. However, this has not happened at the moment. On the contrary, the Securities and Exchange Commission "recognized" bitcoin and began to issue permits for ETF funds in bitcoin.

The new tax legislation, which requires that all transactions in excess of $10,000 be submitted to the IRS, has yet to be adopted. Many investors use this to replenish their own bitcoin reserves. One of the largest public bitcoin holders, Microstrategy, bought additional coins for another $400 million. Another 7,000 bitcoins were bought at an average price of about $59,000. Thus, the company already owns 121,000 coins worth about $6.9 billion.



The current upward section of the trend still does not cause any doubts. The wave pattern was refined after the instrument made a successful attempt to break through the maximum of the assumed wave 3. Now the whole picture looks like an impulsive five-wave upward trend section, which began its construction on July 20.

However, the exit of quotes over the past three weeks from the reached highs may mean the end of the expected wave 5, which in this case will be shortened. At the moment, I'm leaning towards this option. There is no alternative option at this time since the tool does not try to resume the construction of an upward trend section.

This option cannot be completely dismissed, however, if we start only from the wave counting, then now at least a three-wave downward trend section should be built with targets located near the estimated marks of $51,200 and $46,900.

Much will now depend on the Omicron variant and its worldwide spread. We have already seen on Friday how the markets can react to reports of a worsening pandemic situation.





Chin Zhao
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

A future without a future: Discussion of cryptocurrencies has begun in the Indian Parliament


Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are responding less and less to news from India regarding the regulation of cryptocurrencies in this country.

A future without a future

Yesterday, the Government of India answered three groups of questions in parliament regarding bitcoin transactions, cryptocurrency fraud, and the legality of the trade. It is expected that a bill on cryptocurrency will be considered at this session.

On Monday, the Ministry of Finance of India answered three sets of questions about bitcoin and cryptocurrency trading. In the first block of questions, entitled "bitcoin transactions", Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman was asked in parliament whether the government is aware that bitcoin transactions have been quietly flourishing in India in recent years, which she replied that no one collects this data and does not control them. The Finance Minister was also asked "if the government has any intention to recognize bitcoin as the official currency in the country," to which she also replied in the negative.



There is nothing new in her answers that the cryptocurrency community would not have guessed about, because India is conducting quite an active digging aimed at, if not banning, then regulatory control of this sphere.

As for the questions about bitcoin fraud that were registered in Karnataka, the Minister was asked about the details of the investigation and about the actions taken to prevent similar cases. "The information in the public domain indicates that a case of cybercrime related to bitcoin has been reviewed by the Karnataka Police. Further disclosure of information on this issue does not meet the great interests of the public," the minister said.

More interesting were the issues related to the legality of cryptocurrency trading and related to the operation of cryptocurrency exchanges in India. Government officials also answered him very bluntly: "The government does not collect information about cryptocurrency trading." However, the question of whether cryptocurrency exchanges are legal entities in the country was raised in more detail. The minister noted that "cryptocurrencies are not regulated in India. The only thing that the Reserve Bank of India, in its circular dated May 31, 2021, recommended to its supervisory authorities, to continue to conduct the KYC procedure more carefully, to work on AML and the fight against the financing of terrorism.

Judging by the answers received, nothing good can be expected about cryptocurrencies in the next session. The government plans to seriously engage in this area but does not yet know-how. Or it knows - it evades answers, for several objective reasons. In any case, negative news on this issue will be reflected in the cryptocurrency market, acting negatively on it, since there are quite a large number of cryptocurrency users in India who are seriously afraid of an official ban by the authorities.

The government has repeatedly stated that it plans to develop its digital currency, so the mass distribution and turnover of cryptocurrencies within the country, by analogy with China, may be banned. The bill under consideration is unlikely to be aimed at maintaining and developing cryptocurrencies in the country, but why the Indian authorities cannot say this openly remains a mystery. Not everyone agrees with what the central bank is trying to achieve.


Galaxy Digital

And in conclusion, I would like to note the news from Galaxy Digital, which announced the issue of bonds totaling $ 500 million. In the future, they can be exchanged for shares in a private placement. The maturity of the bonds with a 3% yield will come on December 15, 2026; if they are not exchanged, redeemed, or redeemed earlier. Galaxy Digital intends to use the raised capital to finance business development initiatives.


As for the technical picture of bitcoin

Although BTC managed to push off from its lows around $54,000 and recover to $57,000, the downtrend observed since November 8 remains in force. It is still very early to talk about the interception of the market by bulls. The key task will be to go beyond the resistance of $ 59,422 since only after that it will be possible to count on more rapid growth in the area of the highs of $ 63,800 and $ 68,880. It will be possible to talk about an increase in pressure only after the exchange rate returns under the support of $ 55,930. A breakdown of this level will quickly dump the trading instrument to $53,190 and open a direct road to $50,220.



As for the technical picture of the ether



Given that there was a high demand for this altcoin last week (plans were disrupted by a new strain of coronavirus), growth may continue. Major support in the area of $ 3,970 remains to work out one hundred percent. Now the bulls need a breakthrough and an exit beyond the intermediate level of $ 4,367, which will open a direct road to the highs of $ 4,549 and $ 4,768. It will be possible to talk about serious problems for ether buyers only after a breakthrough of $ 3,970, which will push the trading instrument into the area of the lows of $ 3,682 and $ 3,405.





Jakub Novak
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin did the unbelievable and bounces off insane retesting of the support zone, not without the help of Michael Saylor



Bitcoin starts the new week as well as possible. Last week, in view of rumors about the detection of a new strain of coronavirus, investors began to sharply sell cryptocurrency and buy shares of Pfizer, which is developing a new vaccine against the African strain of the Omicron virus.

In this regard, bitcoin fell to $54,000 and pulled the entire altcoin market with it. Stock exchanges around the world are going into a state of free fall due to the risk of a total lockdown around the world.

However, today bitcoin has made a sharp reversal and has risen by as much as 6% in a day. Bitcoin is currently trading at $57,200.

An important catalyst for such a 6% impulse growth was the support of bitcoin whale and number one fan Michael Saylor. He wrote on Twitter that bitcoin never sleeps.

Analyst Lark Davis commented on the situation on Twitter, and shared with fans the opinion that bitcoin seems to be coming back to normal after retesting the support zone.

Bitcoin has just done the incredible and bounces back from the insane retesting of the support zone.

On Friday, there was a massive drop in the crypto market, after the WHO announced the discovery of a new strain of coronavirus. Bitcoin fell by 8% in a day, which triggered the fall of other altcoins.

Ethereum also fell below the $4,000 mark. However, today bitcoin shows excellent prospects for further upward trend.

This does not mean that only cryptocurrencies continue to be in the firing line, stock markets have also experienced pressure and shock due to the discovery of a new strain of the Omicron coronavirus.






Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Short-term Bitcoin analysis.

Bitcoin price is trading around $57,000. Price is showing signs of strength and is very close to confirming a bearish channel break out. There are increased chances that the decline from $68,959 is complete and that price has started a counter trend bounce.



Red lines - bearish channel

Blue lines- bullish divergence

Black lines - Fibonacci retracements

Bitcoin is still below the recent high at $59,368. This is the most important short-term resistance level. Breaking above it will open the way for a move towards the 61.8% retracement level and the $63,000 price. The decline from recent all time highs has lost its strength. The RSI is providing bullish divergence signals and this is an important warning. Although in the short-term I see price bouncing higher towards $62,000-$63,000, there are increased chances of a lower high to be formed.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for November 29, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
The Indian government is expected to present a new crypto bill to parliament. It contains certain regulations that are unfavorable to the Indian cryptocurrency economy. Vijay Shekhar Sharma, founder of Paytm, has a lot to say about it. This company is an Indian multinational technology corporation that specializes in digital payment systems, e-commerce and finance.

Sharma has announced that crypto will remain and expects to become mainstream in a few years.

"I am very positive about cryptocurrencies. Technology essentially based on cryptography will be mainstream in a few years, as will the internet, which is (now) part of everyday life," he said.

Currently, there are no laws in India regulating the use of cryptocurrencies. However, Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently held a meeting with other officials about the regulatory steps to be taken.

The Indian government plans to introduce a new law regulating digital currencies. With her, the authorities are preparing to ban private cryptocurrencies. At the same time, it will create the framework for the development of an official digital currency. However, the bill "allows certain exceptions to promote the underlying cryptocurrency technology and its uses."

Sharma further stated that the use of cryptocurrency is currently speculation. He stated that people would soon understand what the world would be like without crypto. However, he stressed that this would not replace fiat currencies.


Technical Market Outlook
The BTC/USD pair has suddenly bounced from the level of $53,250 after a short period of testing and consolidation of the demand zone seen between $53,331 - $53.747. The ABCxABC complex corrective pattern might have been completed at this level and now the market is ready to resume the up trend again. The recent local high was made at the level of $58,244, but in order to confirm the up trend continuation bulls must break through the wave X high located at $60,013. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $55,748 and $53,306. The larger time frame trend is still up.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $65,476
WR2 - $62,564
WR1 - $59,328

Weekly Pivot - $56,242
WS1 - $53,008
WS2 - $49,857
WS3 - $46,541


Trading Outlook:
The ABCxABC complex corrective cycle might be terminated. According to the long-term charts the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $52,943 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $52,000).








Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for November 29, 2021


Crypto Industry News:
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has proposed a new cap on the block's total transaction data to reduce gas costs in the ETH network.

Buterin highlights concerns about high tier 1 transaction fees for batch bundles and a significant amount of time to implement:

"Therefore, a short-term solution is desirable to further reduce rollup costs and encourage the transition across the entire ecosystem to rollup-oriented Ethereum."

Buterin has made a cost reduction proposal that aims to reduce the load level and the risk of damaging the network. He believes that "1.5MB is enough to prevent most security threats."

Regarding advice to the Ethereum community, Vitalik wrote:

"It is worth rethinking your stance on multidimensional resource limits. Look at them as a pragmatic way to achieve moderate increases in scalability while maintaining security."

If accepted, the implementation of the proposal will require a scheduled network upgrade. This update also means that miners will have to follow a new rule that prevents new transactions from being added to a block when the total size of call data reaches its maximums.


Technical Market Outlook
The ETH/USD pair has bounced from the level of $3,910 after a Pin Bar candlestick pattern was made. The ABCxABC complex corrective pattern might have been completed at this level and now the market is ready to resume the up trend again. The recent local high was made at the level of $4,375, but in order to confirm the up trend continuation bulls must break through the wave B high located at $4,555. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $4,185 and $4,121. The larger time frame trend is still up.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $5,126
WR2 - $4,890
WR1 - $4,581

Weekly Pivot - $4,237
WS1 - $3,938
WS2 - $3,595
WS3 - $3,100


Trading Outlook:
The ABCxABC complex corrective cycle might be terminated, so the next long-term target for ETH is seen at the level of $5,000. Nevertheless, in order to continue the long-term up trend, the price can not close below the technical support at the level of $2,906. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key long-term technical support for bulls. The level of $3,677 is the key mid-term technical support for bulls.







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021