Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Bitcoin dips below $ 60,000. US is holding crypto-related hearings



Bitcoin continued to plunge and is now trading below $ 60,000, the lowest level in three weeks. The reason was increased concerns on US taxation and stronger crypto crackdown in China.



According to data, BTC is down 3% to $ 55,500, declining for four consecutive days. Ethereum also fell 4% to $ 4,055, its lowest level since October 28. All major tokens have dropped by at least 10% over the past seven days.



The crypto industry initially performed very well this year, but concerns over tax provisions in the US and ongoing crackdown from China have dampened momentum.

Nevertheless, the hash rate, which measures the processing power of Bitcoin, has largely recovered from its mid-year crash when China resumed its crackdown on the crypto industry.

Bitcoin was near its 50-day moving average during Tuesday's plunge, but prices retreated below $ 60,000 on Wednesday.



Today, all attention should be given to the US Congress, as it will hold hearings related to cryptocurrencies.





Andrey Shevchenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BTC drops to $60K amid regulations tightening in US and China. When BTC to stop falling?

An excessive confidence in a further rise in BTC and a jump in the number of speculative long positions led to a correctional movement that later affected the whole market. The number of long positions was actively growing, thus causing an unexpected decline of 9%. As a result, the asset broke the level of $60,000. The decrease took place amid a negative news flow. That is why the first cryptocurrency is likely to slide deeper.

The correction influenced the whole market, while bitcoin needed a local drop after a several-day rally. The speculative activity almost reached its peak, thus pointing to the upcoming local decline. Disappointing news from both the US and China became the main reason for a drop in the crypto market. As a result, traders closed a large number of positions worth more than $610 million in one day and more than $1.5 billion in the last 7 days.

Investors' behavior was seriously affected by Joe Biden's decision to significantly tighten regulations on cryptocurrency trading. The US President signed an infrastructure bill, according to which the digital coin market is subject to mandatory reporting to the Tax Service on the activities of its users. In fact, this action impacts the confidentiality of investors' transactions and tightens tax control over the activities of cryptocurrency platforms. In addition, the expected income from this type of taxes could exceed $28 billion.

At the same time, China is planning to impose stricter sanctions on crypto trading. According to the new rules, mining will be prosecuted both in private enterprises and residential homes of individuals. In addition, some politicians have been dismissed and expelled from the party for supporting mining. They will receive criminal charges for mining digital coins. Due to excessive overheating of the market and negative news, the total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market collapsed by 9% to $2.8 trillion.

During the last 24 hours, bitcoin lost 7.5% and dropped below $60,000. However, later, it managed to consolidate above the mentioned level. One big holder of digital coins benefited from the situation and purchased 207 BTC for an average price of $62,000. As a result, the trader entered the top-3 list of the largest cryptocurrency holders. Judging by the recent drop, BTC may show the fastest rally of the year. This is proved by investors' behavior. They are actively buying coins amid lower prices.

At 4 pm, bitcoin was trading around $60.5K, trying to consolidate above the support level of $60.2K. Amid the decline, the BTC price hit the level of $58.6K and then rebounded. As a result, the price closed above the open reading. Now, the coin is approaching the first resistance level near $62.1K. Thus, the price may enter its consolidation range.

Moving higher, the price may face resistance at the level of $64.4K. An upward breakout of the level will point to the end of the consolidation phase, as the price is likely to go on climbing. Technical indicators are also gradually recovering. Stochastic and the relative strength index (RSI) are rising to the bullish zone that is above 40. However, MACD continues sliding below zero, thus providing a bearish signal.



It is quite possible that BTC will continue its correctional movement. The key support level is located at $58.6K. It is a reverse point after a drop. A big number of long positions and a strong support level proves this. Notably, the price has tried to downwardly break the mentioned support level several times already. At the same time, the level of $53.6K is a perfect price to buy the asset. BTC is only getting ready for the main bullish rally. Against this background, market participants may push the price even lower to make investments that will bring more profit.





Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical analysis of Ripple for November 17, 2021



Ripple has the same dominating formation as Litecoin, a huge Cup with handle formation. It signals strong bullish momentum once the resistance-line near 1.97 is broken. We will have to stay patient and let the handle develop. A break above minor resistance at 1.35 will confirm more upside pressure towards the Cup with Handle resistance near 1.97. Above this level, there may be a rally to at least 3.82 and possibly even higher.





Torben Melsted
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical analysis of Litecoin for November 17, 2021



Litecoin faced bearish pressure, dropping by 19% from last week's peak of 295.80. We are sure that bulls find it irritating. Only a break below short-term key support of 140 will flip the bias from bullish to temporary bearish.

So as long as key support at 140 is able to protect the downside, a break above minor resistance at 245 and 281.32 may occur. If so, it will confirm a new rally to the Cup with Handle resistance near 376.






Torben Melsted
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading plan for Bitcoin for November 17, 2021



TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:

Bitcoin has dropped through $58,500-59,000 zone as discussed and in-line with expectations. The crypto is seen to be trading around $59,000-400 at this point in time and might prepare to rise higher again. Traders might be advised to book profits on short positions initiated earlier from $65,000 mark and prepare to turn long. Potential remains for a rally towards $75,000 going forward.

On the flip side, Bitcoin can drop further to $56,000 mark, which is fibonacci 0.382 retracement of the rally between $40,000 and $69,000 respectively. A drop below $56,000 will open the door to test $50,000 potential support before resuming its rally towards $75,000 mark. Immediate price support on the daily chart is at $40,000, while resistance is around $69,000 respectively.

Bitcoin wave structure continues to remain bullish until prices stay above $40,000 mark. A break below $40,000 will test further lower towards $29,600 mark. At this point in time, focus shifts tor a rally above $75,000 mark with risk below $56,000 respectively. Bulls seem to be poised to dominate the market soon.


TRADING PLAN:

Potential rally towards $75,000 against $55,000

Good luck!





Oscar Ton
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

ETH down by 9%: How big could ether's fall be?

Ether has been bullish since September. The asset has not been able to enter a correction until today. To set a new record high, the price should stabilize. ETH has started to retrace upward after negative fundamental background and a drop in bitcoin. At the same time, on-chain metrics have long signaled the possibility of an imminent decline in price.

As a result, amid tighter cryptocurrency market regulation and China's crackdown on the industry, ETH lost 8% on Monday and 11% in the previous week. Total losses from transactions with ether amounted to $222 million, most of which were long positions. On the weekly chart, a bearish breakout of the medium-term uptrend took place, with the quote traded at $4.3K. The price is in the key support zone, in line with the first Fibonacci level. A breakout of this mark is likely to indicate a deeper correction and a retest of important levels of $4K and $3,7K that are in line with the second and third Fibonacci levels respectively. Overall, ether is likely to remain bearish, which is confirmed by technical indicators and the moving averages. The MACD has formed a bear crossover and continues to go down to zero, indicating a bearish market. The Stochastic indicator is above the bullish zone and is heading towards 25, signaling an increase in long positions and bearish market sentiment. The Relative Strength Index is moving down and is likely to break through 40 and leave the bullish zone.



On the H4 chart, there are signs of a bearish trend and a possible retest of the level of $4K that is in line with the second Fibonacci level. After a breakout at $4,3K, bulls started to push the price from the support level of $4K to the first Fibonacci level. However, the quote failed to go above $4,3K and started to fall, indicating the weakness of bulls and the strength of bears that were pushing the price further down. ETH is expected to remain in a bearish trend. In case of a breakout at $4,2K, the price is likely to retest the $4K mark and retrace. This support level has been tested several times, which increases the possibility of a bearish breakout. Technical indicators are also signaling a bearish trend. The MACD maintains its downward dynamics, while the Stochastic Oscillator is forming a bearish crossover after attempting to reverse upward. This is an important bearish signal showing the weakness of bulls and the lack of strong short-term upward momentum. The RSI is moving sideways. Overall, the H4 chart confirms a bearish trend on ETH/USD. In case of a retest of the level of $4K, the price is likely to fall to $3,7K. If so, the quote is likely to recover and reach $5K before heading towards $6,8K.







Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Latest crypto news on November 17



Markets doubt BTC can grow further

On Tuesday, November 16, bitcoin dropped by about $5,000. However, the current wave pattern for BTC suggests that any scenario is possible now, even the one in which the formation of the uptrend is completed. But let us talk about the wave patterns a bit later. I have recently noticed that in the past few weeks the market is no longer actively buying bitcoin. According to some respected analysts, the launch of the world's first bitcoin ETF did not prompt the demand for bitcoin itself, but only for ETF stocks and bitcoin futures. In addition, bitcoin is now holding near its historic highs, and new purchases are always risky at such levels. Also, the market is certainly worried about high inflation in the US and, accordingly, the tightening of the Fed's monetary policy. At first, the Fed was planning a gradual tightening. Yet, inflation is not going to adjust to the plans of the American regulator and continues to grow. The US central bank, in turn, can accelerate the cutting of the QE program and start a rate hike earlier than in mid-2022. These worries may hold back bitcoin's uptrend since they serve as a bearish factor for BTC.


Evergrande's collapse threatens bitcoin and other markets

At the same time, the whole world has been closely following the situation around the Chinese developer (one of the largest in the country) Evergrande for several months in a row. The company is on the verge of bankruptcy and could have declared it at least three times. But every time the developer has managed to do something to postpone the collapse. However, the German Market Screening Agency may recognize the company as a default in the coming days. This will result in the non-payment of about 2 trillion yuan on the company's liabilities. Notably, 2 trillion yuan is 2% of China's GDP which is definitely a huge amount. There is no doubt that the bankruptcy of Evergrande will drag many companies down and trigger a wave of bankruptcies around the world. Along with this collapse, markets will tumble as well as everything has been closely connected for a long time. As such, bitcoin could be severely shocked by the Evergrande's crash, and not only bitcoin. It is reported that by the end of the year, the company must pay about $340 million and $7.4 billion next year.



Meanwhile, the current ascending section of the trend is still valid. The wave pattern was clarified after the instrument made a successful attempt to break through the high of the assumed wave 3. Now the whole picture looks like an impulse five-wave uptrend section which began its formation on July 20. However, retreating from the highs reached lately may also mean the completion of the expected wave 5 which in this case turned out to have a shorter layout. It is also possible that we will see the construction of the assumed wave C in 4. But for now, everything looks more like the completion of a five-wave ascending wave structure. Thus, in the coming weeks, bitcoin is at risk of initiating a new downtrend section which could persist for several months. This means that BTC is unlikely to reach the long-awaited target of $100,000 this year. Also, the cryptocurrency may drop to at least $44,000 or even lower in case the news background is bad in the coming weeks.






Chin Zhao
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading signal for BITCOIN on November 17 - 18, 2021: sell below $62,802 (SMA 21 - 2/8)

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around 59,817 with a bearish bias. On November 16, BTC broke sharply through the 21 SMA and the strong support at 2/8 murray.

On October 1, BTC was trading above the 21 SMA which was giving it a positive outlook. However, yesterday Bitcoin achieved a daily close below this moving average which could be a negative signal in the short term.

The government of China continues to put pressure on Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market. The agency's spokesman, Meng Wei, criticized Bitcoin mining, claiming that it consumes a lot of energy and generates a lot of carbon emissions. The authorities are determined to eradicate mining. This could affect Bitcoin in the medium term.



According to the daily chart, Bitcoin is very overbought now, and it is likely that the technical correction will continue in the coming days. If the downward pressure continues, it may fall to the psychological level of 50,000 located at the 0/8 murray around the 200 EMA.

The medium-term outlook for BTC remains positive despite the recent technical correction. Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of 68,959 last week, giving the bulls a chance to hit 75k in the coming weeks.

Investors believe that this decline is part of a technical correction for a new bullish wave that could reach the key level of 4/8 murray around 75,000 and up to 81,250 before the end of the year.

Our forecast for the next few hours is to sell below the 21 SMA and below the 2/8 murray, with targets at 56,250 and up to the zone of 200 EMA located at 48,711.

The eagle indicator is giving a negative signal and the downward movement is likely to continue in the next few days. BTC is expected to consolidate at key support around the psychological level of 50,000 and between the 200 EMA at 48,711.


Support and Resistance Levels for November 17 - 18, 2021
Resistance (3) 65,123
Resistance (2) 63,368
Resistance (1) 61,287

Support (1) 56,250
Support (2) 54,515
Support (3) 52,534


A trading tip for BTC for November 17 - 18, 2021
Sell below 62,802 (SMA 21) with take profit at 56,250 and 50,000 (uptrend channel) and stop loss above 63,900.





Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

XRPUSD tests major support area.

XRPUSD is trading around $1,10. As most other cryptocurrencies, XRPUSD is also under selling pressure. Price has broken below the key support trend line that was so far respected. Failure to hold above $1, will result into more selling and a move lower towards $0.80.



Orange lines -resistance trend line

Blue line - support trend line

XRPUSD is now again below both the orange resistance trend lines and the blue upward sloping support trend line. If bulls manage to keep price above $1.10, then they will have many chances of pushing higher over the next few sessions. Key resistance is now at $1.18 and next at $1.24. Bulls need to break above $1.18, this will be an important win for bulls. Inability to stay above $1.08-$1, will lead to lower prices towards $0.80.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin breaks below short-term support


Bitcoin is trading just above the $60,000 price level. Short-term trend is changing to bearish. Price has started forming lower lows and lower highs. Price has broken below the horizontal support at $63,450 and below the short-term upward sloping trend line at $62,250.



Red rectangle- horizontal support

Blue line- support trend line

Bitcoin has broken to new short-term lower lows after the lower high at $66,260. Price has reached the lows made on October 28th and is now testing them. Breaking below the $59,350 level would be a bearish signal and this could lead to more downside towards $54,000. As long as price is below $66,300, I expect Bitcoin price to be vulnerable to the downside.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021