Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Cryptocurrency market update for November 16, 2021



ANTHONY SCARAMUCCI AND WILLY WOO DISAGREE ON THE VALUE OF BITCOIN.

Bitcoin made an unsuccessful attempt to break through the 100.0% Fibonacci level on Monday, November 15. Earlier, as can be clearly seen in the figure below, Bitcoin quotes had already made a successful attempt to break through this level, but later moved down. Thus, the upward section of the trend may already be completed.

However, many still count on a stronger strengthening of Bitcoin. In recent weeks, forecasts for the future value of Bitcoin have begun to pour in from all sides again. The year 2021 is coming to an end, and note that many analysts predicted six months ago that Bitcoin would reach $100,000 per coin.

So far, non of these forecasts have come true, and now we are down to a month and a half until the year ends. But we are still looking forward to this forecast to happen. And for Bitcoin to pass $35,000 in 45 days is not such an impossible task.

One of the well-known crypto enthusiasts who believe in the $100,000 per BTC coin by the end of the year is SkyBrige Capital's Anthony Scaramucci. Scaramucci advised investors to buy bitcoin at current prices because then it will cost much more.

But not everyone is in favor of this. Well-known crypto analyst and journalist Willy Woo disagrees with this stance. In his opinion, Bitcoin is now unable to continue increasing, although it is not far from historical highs.

Woo said that there are too many speculators on the market at the moment, which does not help the quotes to grow. He also noted that after the launch of the first bitcoin-based ETF fund, many investors prefer to buy the fund's shares or futures, rather than Bitcoin itself.


BITCOIN TAPROOT UPGRADE DID NOT AFFECT THE CRYPTOCURRENCY EXCHANGE RATE IN ANY WAY.

The cryptocurrency market has hardly reacted to the first global upgrade on the Bitcoin network in the last four years. The Taproot upgrade is designed to reduce the amount of fees for transfers due to the introduction of new technologies. Through this, it is also possible to create and transfer smart contracts.

Why didn't the market react to Taproot in any way? Most likely, because they had already taken this upgrade into account in the prices since it was not a secret. Nonetheless, the overall structure of Bitcoin has improved and the upgrade will undoubtedly have a positive impact on the cryptocurrency. But now there are more important topics that can have a much greater impact.



Bitcoin has been in thought for the last few weeks but still made a successful attempt to resume the construction of an upward trend section. The picture above shows that the current upward section of the trend does not cause any doubts.

The wave pattern was refined after the instrument made a successful attempt to break through the maximum of the assumed wave 3. Now the whole picture looks like an impulsive five-wave upward trend section, which began its construction on July 20. If this is indeed the case, the construction of wave 5 has now begun as part of this section, which may be the last.

However, even such a seemingly unambiguous structure raises some concerns. Firstly, wave 4 can still take a three-wave, non-standard form. Secondly, the trend area after September 21 may be one wave, the third. Then the construction of the fourth wave will begin now, and the fifth - later.

Thus we derive the conclusion that Bitcoin has already climbed very high and it will be scary to buy it at such high price levels. Although with the option of building a third wave at this time, Bitcoin may well grow to $100,000 over the next 2-3 months.





Chin Zhao
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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ETFs adversely affect BTC

Over the past two months, bitcoin has soared considerably, approaching ATH several times. The rapid growth of the digital asset is associated with the launch of the first US bitcoin futures exchange-traded fund. Notably, it attracted a record level of investments. However, due to the launch of the exchange-traded fund, there has been a significant shift in investment flows, which directly affects the cryptocurrency and contributes to a decrease in demand for the coin as a separate financial instrument.

Cryptanalyst Willy Wu was the first who voiced concerns. He believes that a change in the investment flows of large capital may negatively impact bitcoin. He is also confident that investing in bitcoin-based stocks is not a direct investment in cryptocurrency. This is why it limits BTC growth. Large companies have shifted their attention to traditional forms of investments, such as funds and shares, and not in the cryptocurrency. For this reason, risks for investors are significantly lower. Yet, institutional investors may lose their influence on the BTC market.

Notably, in a bull market, the stability that large companies bring to the market plays a huge role. It eases volatility. Investing in ETFs negates this advantage. As a result, the balance of power shifts to speculative players. Over the past few weeks, the number of unique addresses in the BTC network has increased significantly amid the ATH update. Apparently, there are now many retail investors in the market. It also indicates an increase in speculative trading, which undermines the growth of the asset and a jump in volatility. Traditionally, November has always been a highly volatile month since 2017, which is directly related to the final and most powerful stage of the bull market. So, the risk of sharp swings, namely drops, may hammer trading activity and trigger a jump in the volatility index. If so, it is sure to influence the long-term uptrend.

Despite frim forecasts, bitcoin has risen above the fluctuation zone of $60.2k-$64.4k. However, it managed to break above this important level due to impulsive growth. Now, the price is approaching the support zone at around $64.4k. Technical indicators signal consolidation after a powerful upward jump in the price. In other words, there is a slight pullback after a strong upward movement. Thus, sellers managed to push the price lower to the range of fluctuations. If at the end of the current trading day, the price consolidates above this line, then tomorrow we can expect a retest of $68k, which coincides with the Fibo retracement level. At the same time, there is an increase in the Take Profit orders above the $66.2k mark. The price is unable to climb higher due to this factor. Yet, the number of long positions is also growing. There is a probability that the pair may retest $66.2k. If it breaks through this level, the price may fall below $64.4k. If so, we should expect a decline in activity and a continuation of the consolidation stage.







Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Bitcoin attracts more buyers


Bitcoin dropped again but the bullish bias remains intact. It could climb higher anytime as the price stands in the buyer's territory. It is trading at the 64,015 level at the time of writing far below 66,387.40 today's high.

BTC/USD dropped by 4.12% from 66,387.40 today's high to 63,650 daily low. In the short term, it could come down to retesting the immediate support levels before resuming its upwards movement.


BTC/USD TEMPORARY RETREAT!



BTC/USD dropped after failing to reach and retest the descending pitchfork's upper median line (uml) and after registering only false breakouts above 65,982.95. 62,856.71 stands as a static support level. As long as it stays above this downside obstacle, the price of bitcoin could jump higher.

Moving sideways and making a valid breakout above the descending pitchfork's upper median line (uml) could signal potential upside continuation. Failing to approach and reach the median line (ml) could signal an upside breakout and a potential growth to 68,564.40.


BTC/USD PREDICTION!
Staying above 62,856.71 and near the descending pitchfork's upper median line (uml) indicates strong bullish pressure and an imminent upside breakout. Jumping, closing, and stabilizing above the upper median line (uml) could bring new long opportunities.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Ethereum is number one cryptocurrency for crypto gambling and iGaming



Ethereum is truly the cryptocurrency of the future. This financial instrument is the most innovative and scalable.

A huge number of investors prefer to invest in Ethereum over Bitcoin. However, Ethereum is a priority for gambling and online casinos as well.

Crypto gambling has been a very popular form of the gaming industry over the past couple of years. A huge number of online casinos offer various games and fast payouts.

Online casino Winz.io allows Ethereum holders to play any gambling and pay online transactions directly in Ether.

This casino is not the only one of its kind, and there are still many different companies that have their eyes on Ethereum, as they believe that Ethereum and the gaming industry are a single whole.

Crypto gambling has become very popular due to various restrictions and prohibitions around the world on gambling and allows you to play these games while maintaining complete confidentiality.

Winz.io uses a lot of cryptocurrencies to conduct transactions, but Ethereum retains the palm. The Ethereum 2.0 protocol should make the game process even more efficient and accessible.

However, many crypto enthusiasts and players still hope that the new Ethereum 2.0 update will reduce gas fees since these fees are very high.

The Ethereum 2.0 update should reduce power consumption by 99%. The transition to the proof-of-stake protocol from ordinary proof-of-work will make the Ethereum network even more reliable and fast, therefore Ethereum is considered the cryptocurrency of the present and the future for crypto gambling and iGaming.





Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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BTC/USD on November 15: How to make money on Bitcoin by applying Elliott's theory?


Analyzing BTCUSD using the Elliott theory on an hourly timeframe.



For the main cryptocurrency pair BTCUSD, the formation of an upward impulse wave (A) is most likely taking place. In its composition, the first four parts have been fully completed. The last fifth subwave, or rather its final section, is in the development stage.

It is assumed that since the end of October, the construction of the final diagonal 5, which consists of subwaves [1]-[2]-[3]-[4]-[5], takes place. Subwaves [1]-[2]-[3]-[4] look complete. The last fifth part is in the process of formation - subwave [5], which can take the form of a zigzag (A)-(B)-(C).

Within the specified zigzag, subwaves (A)-(B)-(C) are fully completed, impulse (A) and correction (B) are completed. In the near future, the market is expected to grow in the final impulse wave (C) towards the level of 69,800.00.

Thus, in the current situation, it is recommended to consider opening buy deals in order to take profit at the specified level.






Roman Onegin
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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XRPUSD remains supported



XRPUSD remains on track to our bullish scenario for a break towards $1.80 and higher over the coming weeks. XRPUSD has pulled back as a back test of the breakout area around $1.13. Price continues to respect key support trend lines, while at the same time, a bullish pattern is being formed.

Red line - resistance

Green line - support

Blue line- Fibonacci extension target

XRPUSD has broken above the resistance trend line and is now back testing it. Holding above both the red and the green trend line is key for the short-term trend. Bulls have now formed a higher low around $1.18-$1.20 and are ready to continue higher and break recent highs. As long as price is above the green trend line, bulls will be in control of the short-term trend. Upside potential remains at $1.75, which is our first target. However reaching that level will most probably lead also to a new higher high above $2.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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BTC analysis for November 15,.2021 - Breakout of symmetrical triangle in the background

Technical Analysis:



BTC has been trading upside like I expected. There is the breakout of the contraction in the background, which is good confirmation for further upsidee movement.


Trading recommendation:
Due to the breakout of the symmetrical triangle in the background and higher lows on hourly time-frame, I see potential for further rise.

Watch for buying opportunities on the pullbacks with the upside target at $68,500.

Stochastic is showing overbought condition with no strong downside break, which is sign that demand is still present.

Support level for today is set at the price of $65,250






Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for November 15, 2021

Crypto Industry Outlook:
The Bitcoin network has made history once again with the Taproot update launched at block 709.632, 5:15 UTC on 14/11/2021.

This rollover is a milestone for Bitcoin, considering Taproot is the first significant upgrade to the network since August 2017 following Lightning Network and Segregated Witness updates.

While SegWit and the Lightning Network focus on faster and cheaper transactions, Taproot does much more than just improve scalability and reduce fees. The latest update is intended to increase the privacy and security of the protocol.

Taproot introduces Schnorr signatures to reduce some network load while increasing simplicity, efficiency and security. Creates a key type that summarizes a set of signatures into one. This makes it much easier, faster and cheaper to carry out transactions with multiple signatures (UTXI).

Additionally, Taproot aims to improve Bitcoin's scripting language through the Merkelized Abstract Syntax Tree concept. This opens the door to smart contracts online, leading to even greater adaptation.


Technical Market Outlook
The BTC/USD pair continue the impulsive wave to the upside after the pull-back to the level of $62,233. Bulls had hit the 127% Fibonacci projection located at the level of $$68,267 and made a new ATH at the level of $68,995 then the pull-back happened. The next big target for BTC is seen at $70,000, but the first target for the wave 5 is located at $70,508. The momentum is strong and positive, which supports the short-term bullish outlook for BTC. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $65,556.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $74,186
WR2 - $71,563
WR1 - $67,476

Weekly Pivot - $68,414
WS1 - $60,726
WS2 - $58,026
WS3 - $54,090


Trading Outlook:
According to the long-term charts the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $52,943 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $52,000).






Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for November 15, 2021


Crypto Industry Outlook:
The activity of Ethereum addresses is increasing. Last month, there was an increase of almost 50%.

The increased network activity was undoubtedly due to the recent increases in the second most popular cryptocurrency, which recorded a new ATH ($ 4,878) on November 10.

The increased activity in the Ethereum network can be related to the fact that there are many people who say that ETH will soon exceed $ 5,000, and in a few years it may even overtake Bitcoin. According to some forecasts, ETH has a real chance of reaching even USD 10,000 in the near future.

In addition, since the EIP-1559 update was introduced, some of the ETH is burned regularly, which means that less and less cryptocurrency remains in circulation. This, however, will most likely have a positive impact on its price in the long run.

Although the said update only came into force at the beginning of August, a total of 884,297 ETH has been burned so far. At the current exchange rate (USD 4 597), this gives as much as USD 4,065,113,309. Almost two million dollars worth of ETH has been burned down in the last hour alone.

It should also not be forgotten that Ethereum plays a key role in decentralized finance (DeFi). Most of the most popular NFT projects have also been launched on the web. These two practical uses of cryptocurrency contributed to the fact that the market was influenced by new capital that increased the market capitalization of Ethereum.

The current market capitalization of ETH according to $ 543,298,839,472 is "only" 2.24 times smaller than the BTC market cap.


Technical Market Outlook
The ETH/USD pair continue the impulsive wave to the upside, but has been seen consolidating all weekend long around the level of $4,670. Bulls had hit the 127% Fibonacci projection located at the level of $4,873 and reversed lower to consolidate. The next big target for ETH is seen at $5,000. The momentum is strong and positive, which supports the short-term bullish outlook for ETH. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $4,670 and $4,767.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $5,138
WR2 - $5,019
WR1 - $4,756

Weekly Pivot - $4,615
WS1 - $4,352
WS2 - $4,211
WS3 - $3,960


Trading Outlook:
The next long-term target for ETH is seen at the level of $5,000. Nevertheless, in order to continue the long-term up trend, the price can not close below the technical support at the level of $2,906. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key long-term technical support for bulls. The level of $3,677 is the key mid-term technical support for bulls.







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

India plans to ease crypto regulations in the country



India is reportedly moving away from its earlier attempts to restrict the use of cryptocurrencies.

During a meeting on Saturday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the government will continue to actively engage with experts and other stakeholders in researching crypto technologies.

Earlier, there were calls in India for stricter rules on virtual coin transactions, as an unregulated environment could push more domestic savings towards the asset class and could jeopardize household savings.

India has had a hot-and-cold relationship with digital currencies in the past few years. In 2018, it effectively banned crypto transactions after a series of scams following Modi's sudden decision to cancel large banknotes at the end of 2016. The Supreme Court lifted the restriction in March 2020.

As for the Reserve Bank of India, it remains a critic, but is currently working on a digital currency. The government could submit a bill about it for the cabinet's approval.

The meeting last weekend also concluded that attempts to mislead the country's younger generation with overly promising and opaque advertising should stop. It was also discussed that unregulated crypto markets cannot become a vehicle for money laundering and terrorist financing.

The meeting also reviewed world examples and best practices, where it was emphasized that India should strive for global partnerships and collective strategies in this matter.

India's parliamentary finance group will meet with industry experts this Monday to discuss further the crypto challenges and opportunities.





Andrey Shevchenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021