Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for October 4, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) extended the deadline for the four Bitcoin ETFs by 45 days, citing the need for additional time to decide whether to accept requests 19b-4.

The approval of the four Bitcoin ETFs - Global X Bitcoin Trust, Valkyrie XBTO Bitcoin Futures Fund, WisdomTree Bitcoin Trust and Kryptoin Bitcoin ETFs - was postponed to November 21, December 8, December 11, and December 24, respectively.

"The Commission believes that a longer period of time to act on the proposed amendment should be allowed in order to have sufficient time to consider the proposed amendment and any comments," writes the SEC.

In mid-September, US investment firm Invesco teamed up with Galaxy Digital Funds to apply for a Bitcoin ETF called Invesco Galaxy. Currently, the pending ETF offer can be listed on domestic US exchanges, and prospective clients have been assured that all private keys will be rigorously guarded by multiple technological and physical security measures.

The introduction of the first Bitcoin EFT by the SEC is widely expected to raise the asset's technical ratios as the market will see a surge in traditional investors. Data from iShares shows that the total value of global stock exchange products is $ 263 billion, yet this figure does not include all mutual funds, which could put it close to $ 500 billion.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has broken above the trend line resistance located at the level of $44,310 and made a new local high at the level of $49,182. The rally ended with a Pin Bar candlestick formation, so a temporary pull-back towards the level of $46,719 is on the way. The key short-term technical support is located at the level of $45,086. Please notice, that the bulls had violated all of the Fibonacci retracement levels already and the recent move up might be the beginning of the impulsive wave progression.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $61,007
WR2 - $54,857
WR1 - $52,632

Weekly Pivot - $42,280
WS1 - $43,798
WS2 - $38,065
WS3 - $35,092


Trading Outlook:
According to the long-term charts the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. The next mid-term target is seen at the level of $59,506. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $30,000 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $30k).







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for October 4, 2021

Crypto Industry News:
The Iranian government will allow licensed cryptocurrency miners to resume operations after a three-month ban imposed by former President Hassan Rouhani on May 26, 2021.

The original ban was introduced due to concerns about the stability of the unreliable power grid in the country. The Middle East country experienced extensive power cuts during the summer, which former President Rouhani attributed to extreme heat. On some days the heat was almost 49 degrees Celsius.

In light of power cuts and water shortages, Rouhani decided to ban cryptocurrency mining in hot weather to ensure citizens can use air conditioning - although there have been doubts in some quarters as to how much energy mining actually consumes domestically. As the temperatures drop and Ebrahim Raisi took office on August 3, 2021, the ban on mining cryptocurrencies was lifted.

It is estimated that 4.5% to 7% of the world's cryptocurrency mining takes place in Iran. It should come as no surprise that Iran boasts some of the cheapest electricity prices in the world thanks to its abundant resources of fossil fuels such as natural gas.

There are reports that suggest that the country looks favorably on Bitcoin mining as a way to avoid US sanctions. Iran currently suffers from an almost complete US embargo, which is negatively affecting the country's economy. With the current estimated levels of cryptocurrency mining in Iran, revenues are estimated at around $ 1 billion.

Despite the ban, underground mining reportedly continued, and news came Wednesday that Ali Sahraee, director of the Tehran Stock Exchange, had resigned after state media reported that cryptocurrency mining was taking place following the ban on the stock exchange.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has broken above the trend line resistance located at the level of $3,385 and made a new local high at the level of $3,489. The rally ended with a Pin Bar candlestick formation, so a temporary pull-back towards the level of $3,337 or $3,252 is on the way. The key short-term technical support is located at the level of $3,173. Please notice, that the bulls had violated all of the Fibonacci retracement levels already.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $4,444
WR2 - $3,970
WR1 - $3,761

Weekly Pivot - $3,277
WS1 - $3,057
WS2 - $2,590
WS3 - $2,360


Trading Outlook:
Ethereum have started the next wave up and violated the long-term target at the level of $3,550. The next long-term target for ETH is seen at the level of $4,394. Nevertheless, in order to continue the long-term up trend, the price can not close below the technical support at the level of $2,906. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key long-term technical support for bulls.







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Elon Musk urges regulators to stay away from Bitcoin




Bitcoin has spent the past weeks inside the Ichimoku cloud on a daily timeframe. The price initially worked out its lower limit several times, and now the upper one. Therefore, one cannot say yet that Bitcoin has continued to rise, although it is very close to its local highs. It is clear that the key task on the same timeframe is a rebound from the level of $ 40,746 and not breaking through the Ichimoku cloud. However, the cryptocurrency also could not go above the level of $ 48,682, so it is possible that it will return to the level of $ 40,746.

Meanwhile, Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has supported Bitcoin once again. He said at the Code Conference in California that the US government should not get involved in the field of cryptocurrencies and refrain from regulating it. According to Musk, no government in the world will be able to destroy cryptocurrencies, but they can significantly slow down their development. He also said that cryptocurrencies are not a relief for all diseases, but they have good potential compared to conventional financial instruments. Musk also commented on the situation with the complete ban of cryptocurrencies in China: "There are periodic problems with electricity in the south of the country because demand exceeds supply. The mining of cryptocurrencies could further increase the shortage of electricity, which could not be the last factor in China's decision."

In this case, Musk continues to indirectly influence the rate of the cryptocurrency, since a new round of growth began a few days ago after this statement. After Musk's speech, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that his department was not going to ban Bitcoin following the example of China, and these two events provoked an increase in the quotes of the main cryptocurrency by more than $ 7,000 in just two days.

Now, market participants have to wait for news from overseas, where questions about the government debt limit and a new "infrastructure package" for the US economy are being resolved. It can be recalled that the new package involves tightening tax legislation on digital assets and also provides several important definitions for participants of the crypto market, according to which they will be prescribed new rules for reporting and taxation. Thus, a new tightening of regulation of cryptocurrencies may provoke a new decline in Bitcoin. The level of $ 48,682 is currently important for this cryptocurrency since its breakdown practically guarantees growth to the previous local high of about $ 53,000. And in this case, the upward trend is likely to continue.



Bitcoin is trying to continue its bullish trend on the daily timeframe after failing to break through the Ichimoku cloud. Here, an upward trend line was formed, which already has three pivot points. Therefore, it will be likely to discuss a new strong decline only after breaking this trend line. So far, there is only a correction. If the level of $ 48,682 is broken, new growth can be expected.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Elliott wave analysis of Ripple for October 4, 2021



Ripple has completed sub-wave ii near 0.8560. We are looking for an upside acceleration towards 2.3227 in sub-wave iii where a sideways consolidation is expected. In the long term, upward movement to 3.3170 and higher is expected.

In the short term, a break above minor resistance at 1.1300 and ideally above resistance at 1.2400 may occur. If so, the digital asset may rise to 1.4160, 1.9665, and 3.3170.





Torben Melsted
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical analysis of Litecoin/USD for October 4, 2021



We continue to look for a strong rally higher towards 491 to complete Livermore's accumulation cylinder. From the current price of 166, a rally to 491 is an almost 300% gain. This is likely to be rather quick. It may take a few months to complete.

In the short term, a break above 195 and resistance at 238 may occur. If so, the pair may grow towards 491.





Torben Melsted
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

IMF urges central banks to tighten Bitcoin's regulation



Over the weekend, Bitcoin grew and managed to reach the level of $ 48,682, but failed to break through it. Therefore, if a rebound occurs from this level, a downward correction can begin. The quotes have begun to decline now and are moving towards the support level of $ 46,600. But after breaking through the trend line, the trend has already formed an upward trend. We are talking about the current correction of the crypto asset, and once this is done, the upward movement should resume. In turn, we continue to rely on the fact that Bitcoin will continue to correct and decline to the level of $ 30,000 per coin for the next few months. However, there are no sell signals at the moment, except for the local, corrective one.

Meanwhile, China's central bank did not have time to completely ban cryptocurrencies, and the Fed did not have time to declare that it was not going to completely ban bitcoin, as representatives of the IMF made an official statement, calling on the Central Bank to strengthen regulation of the cryptocurrency sphere. According to IMF analysts, the growing popularity of bitcoin and its price pose risks to financial stability. "The pseudo-anonymity of cryptocurrencies creates data gaps for regulators and can open undesirable avenues for money laundering, as well as terrorist financing. In addition, the cryptocurrency segment falls under different legal norms in different countries, which complicates the coordination of interaction between regulatory authorities around the world," the IMF said in a statement. It can be seen that the reasons for the need to tighten cryptocurrency control remain unchanged: money laundering, tax evasion, terrorist financing. In this matter, we also remain with our original opinion: the leading countries of the world will continue to tighten control over cryptocurrencies.

At the same time, the CEO of the Galaxy Digital cryptocurrency bank, Mike Novogratz, said that most of the cryptocurrencies that have been created over the past decade will not survive until the next one. However, Novogratz is full of optimism about bitcoin and believes that it will change the entire current financial system. He urges market participants not to pay attention to the volatility of bitcoin and tries to look at the whole picture. "Decentralized systems will fundamentally change finance," Novogratz said. In addition, he stated that Bitcoin investors are interested not only in profit, they believe in fundamental changes in the financial system. A rather controversial statement, which is very similar to another attempt by an interested person to increase the demand for bitcoin in order to provoke its further growth. It was repeatedly mentioned that forecasts from the level of "$ 100,000 by the end of the year" can really come true, but their main target is to assure the market that the growth of bitcoin is almost inevitable. In this case, market participants will invest more in the main digital asset, which will continue its growth, bringing profit primarily to those billionaires who distribute these forecasts.



On the four-hour timeframe, the trend changed into an upward one after the price consolidated above the downward trend line and above the Ichimoku cloud. A rebound from the level of $ 48,682 has occurred, thus, a correction with the targets of $ 46,600, $ 43,852, and $ 40,746 is possible. The breakdown of each level will open the way to the next. If the level of $ 48,682 is broken, then one should further buy with the target of $ 51,350.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Jad Comair: Regulators will not kill Bitcoin. The failure of the experiment in El Salvador.




The bitcoin cryptocurrency rose by $ 5,000 on Friday and is now around the $ 48,000 mark per coin. We already said yesterday that the bitcoin exchange rate had overcome the descending trend line and the Ichimoku cloud on the 4-hour timeframe, so it is a justified strategy to expect further growth now. Nevertheless, the level of $ 48,682 now lies on bitcoin's path to new heights, and until the bulls manage to gain a foothold higher, bitcoin may lead to a small correction. Recall that the level of $ 48,682 is the last local maximum.

Not so long ago, Ray Dalio, the founder of the Bridgewater Associates foundation, said that regulators would sooner or later "strangle" bitcoin, as it would prevent them from controlling all financial flows. The founder of the Melanion Capital fund, Jad Comair, disagrees with this opinion. In his view, at the moment, many Americans have invested in bitcoin, and its ban may lead to negative consequences in the economy. "I don't think any developed country, like the United States or any of the members of the Big Seven, will take such a serious step," Comair said. He also noted that most governments impose certain restrictions and tighten regulations not to ban bitcoin but to protect investors. And proper regulation of the cryptocurrency segment will only help in its development. Comair also gave his forecast regarding the future value of bitcoin. In his opinion, the cryptocurrency will never drop to 0, and in the future, it may grow to $ 500,000 per coin. Comair also voiced a rather widespread opinion that gold is much worse than bitcoin as a hedging instrument. In addition, gold mining causes much more environmental damage than bitcoin mining.

It also became known that the experiment with bitcoin in El Salvador can still be called a failure. The government, we recall, allocated each Salvadoran $ 30 in bitcoins to popularize the cryptocurrency within the country. However, instead of using bitcoin for calculations, Salvadorans either try to speculate on it or immediately withdraw it into dollars. According to Bloomberg, everyone is engaged in such business, from teachers and drivers to business owners. However, most country residents still immediately withdraw bitcoin into dollars, bypassing the government's condition that at least one transaction must be made before being withdrawn into cash. Salvadorans send bitcoin to their relatives or friends, who immediately send it back, followed by a withdrawal in dollars. Also, Bloomberg reports, the Chivo application (an electronic wallet where bitcoins are credited) breaks down very often, so Salvadorans cannot pay for goods and services with bitcoin at any time. Experts also report that the experiment of President Nayib Bukele is very risky for himself since if people start losing money on bitcoins, it will lead to a drop in his support by the population.




The trend on the 4-hour timeframe changed to an upward one after the price was fixed above the descending trend line and above the Ichimoku cloud. There is no ascending trend line now, but there is a level of $ 48,682 - the last local maximum, from which a rebound is very likely. If there is a rebound, then a new round of downward movement with goals is possible $ 46,600, $ 43,852, $ 40,746. If the $ 46,862 is overcome, then we continue to buy with a target of $ 51,350.






Paolo Greco
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Jerome Powell: There is no intention in the Fed's plans to impose a ban on bitcoin.



The bitcoin cryptocurrency has worked out the $ 40,746 level six times and bounced off it six times. Already on Friday, the nerves of traders and investors could not stand it, and a new wave of mass purchases of cryptocurrencies began. Thus, it can be concluded that the market has kept cryptocurrencies above the required level. I just didn't let it fall lower because as soon as the price approached the $ 40,746 mark, purchases immediately followed, and pending buy orders were triggered. Thus, despite the high probability of a correction scenario, at the moment, bitcoin is again in an upward movement. The quotes of "bitcoin" got out of the narrowing triangle and fixed above the descending trend line. Thus, the markets "survived" the news about the ban on any cryptocurrency transactions in China. They are now ready to raise the rate of the first cryptocurrency without the participation of Chinese traders and investors. Although in reality, it is hardly possible to say that they will leave the market, given that bitcoin is decentralized and can be bought and stored in any country.

Also, significant support for bitcoin was provided by the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, who said yesterday that his organization would not follow the example of China and prohibit cryptocurrency transactions. In principle, this is not surprising. The United States is still a democracy, unlike the PRC. Many American experts have repeatedly noted that bitcoin is too deeply embedded in the current financial system of the world to be banned everywhere. Nevertheless, the probability of a tightening of regulation of the cryptocurrency sphere remains. Recall that almost any central bank or government does not need a currency or equivalent beyond its control. "We have no intention to ban cryptocurrencies," the head of the Fed said at a House Financial Services Committee meeting. Also, on Friday, Finance Minister Janet Yellen said that her department is preparing to amend the tax legislation on cryptocurrencies.

In addition, on Friday, it became known about the lifting of the ban on mining in Iran, which was previously introduced due to a lack of electricity in the country. This factor also had a positive impact on the quotes of "bitcoin." Thus, at this time, bitcoin is growing again and is in demand. Immediately, many experts and economists started talking about updating the annual highs, although a week ago, it was about a further fall to the level of $ 30,000. From our point of view, the correction scenario remains relevant. Recall that in the period from July 20 to September 6, the cryptocurrency increased by $ 20,000, and the reasons for this movement remain a mystery. From time to time, bitcoin gets a foundation for continued growth, but still, an increase of $ 20,000 for no particular reason is very cool. Recall that, for example, the leading US stock indices are currently being adjusted since the Fed may announce the curtailment of QE in November. It means that there will be much less money entering the markets.



The trend on the 4-hour timeframe changed to an upward one after the price was fixed above the descending trend line and above the Ichimoku cloud. There is no ascending trend line now, but there is a level of $ 48,682 - the last local maximum, from which a rebound is very likely. If there is a rebound, then a new round of downward movement with goals is possible $ 46,600, $ 43,852, $ 40,746. If the $ 46,862 is overcome, then we continue to buy with the goal of $ 51,350.





Paolo Greco
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading Signal for RIPPLE, XRP, for October 01 - 04, 2021: Buy above $1,0234 (EMA 200)



After breaking the symmetric triangle pattern, Ripple rose rapidly until the EMA of 200. Meanwhile, a strong bullish movement is observed. A consolidation above 1.02 can be a sign of a new bullish wave and in the short term the price could reach 1.1719.

This last quarter of the year all cryptocurrencies opened positively. Bitcoin in a few hours rose almost 4,000 dollars, having advanced more than 9%. Ripple was also encouraged by the upward momentum of BTC. Now it is consolidating above the psychological level of $ 1.

It could be a liquidation of their buy positions from big investors that looks like the fall of BTC and other cryptocurrencies. We will only know if Ripple consolidates above the 200 EMA, and it may suggest that the market is more optimistic and it could rise to the level of 1.36, the high of September 7.

On the contrary, a return below the 200 EMA located at 1.0230 will mean a profit taking from investors and we can expect a new bearish cycle to buy again which will add downward pressure. The price could fall back to support of 1/8 of murray located at 0.8789.

The inverse correlation that exists between the US dollar and cryptocurrencies has given strong momentum to BTC and other cryptocurrencies such as Ripple as a result of the labor data published on Thursday. The weekly update showed that the number of applications for continuing unemployment benefits stagnated around 2.8 million for five consecutive weeks.

This data increased the provisional appetite of investors for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. We must expect a consolidation above 1.02. In case we buy Ripple, our target will be located at 1.0742 (3/8) and up to 1.1719. This will represent a gain of more than 20%.


Support and Resistance Levels for October 01 - 04, 2021
Resistance (3) 1.1719
Resistance (2) 1.0615
Resistance (1) 1.0184

Support (1) 0.9901
Support (2) 0.9583
Support (3) 0.9363


Trading tip for RIPPLE for October 01 - 04, 2021
Buy above 1.0234 (EMA 200) with take profit at 1,0742 and 1,1719, stop loss below 0,9901.

Buy if it rebounds at 0,9766 (2/8) with take profit at 1,0742 and 1,1719, stop loss below 0,9363.





Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin breaks out from consolidation; now heading for 50,000 - 64,000 - 100,000!


Bitcoin moved up on Friday from a narrow consolidation range between the support area of 40,977.38 - 41,980.24 and the resistance of 44,807.24 (red dotted line). Now the main cryptocurrency has an open path to the range of $50,000 - $52,000 per coin, and when it passes through, the next target is to the historical maximum at $64,000. At the time of writing, bitcoin is already trading above $47,000, but let's see how the daily candle closes.

Now the closest technical benchmarks for BTC/USD will be the nearest resistance of 48,178.13, and in case of consolidation above it, the next target will be the zone of 52,000.18 - 52,929.15 (from a technical, not psychological point of view).

Well, by all accounts, concerns about Chinese repression, risk aversion, and regulatory complexities have already been worked out by the market. And now, according to various analysts, October could be very good for the main cryptocurrency.

Bobby Lee, a veteran of the cryptocurrency industry who is the co-founder of the BTCC exchange and the brother of Litecoin creator Charlie Lee, believes that bitcoin will see a rally caused by the fear of lost profits (FOMO) by the end of the year. Against this background, its price may well rise above $100,000.

The crypto veteran noted that the ban on the use of bitcoins in China was predicted even earlier, and now the hammer has fallen. According to him, the bad news "went out of the way," and now the market "processes, digests this information."

Lee claims that Bitcoin's move to the $100,000 mark will result in widespread media coverage. This means that it will lead to a new rally in the market, which will be fueled by investor fears of missing out.

It is worth noting that Lee's early forecasts are generally worked out. In August 2018, he announced that the price of the flagship cryptocurrency would surpass $60,000 by 2020. Although his forecast did not coincide in time (and the timing in financial markets is extremely difficult to predict), bitcoin reached a record high near $64,000 a few months later before heading off for a correction.

At the end of 2019, Lee also noted that he believed BTC/USD could reach $100,000 in the next phase of growth after the correction.

Going back to China and its bans, it was previously noted that the new wave of restrictions did not frighten the market, and crypto investors used this time to increase their positions. MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor recently confirmed this idea, saying that China is constantly banning something. But, despite this, market participants managed to earn trillions of dollars on assets prohibited by China.

What should private traders do now? It is hardly worth trying to jump into the current rally. It is worth waiting for the close of the daily candle, and then buying either on a pullback to the level of 44,807.24, if it is confirmed as a support, or from the level of 48,178.13, if the price consolidates higher.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021